Estimação de parâmetros de demanda e oferta em mercados de produtos diferenciados

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir detalhadamente o desenvolvimento de métodos de estimação de parâmetros de demanda e oferta em mercados de produtos diferenciados. As técnicas apresentadas consideram explicitamente a endogeneidade dos preços e podem ser aplicadas a diferentes tipos de indústrias. O sistema de demandas de mercado é derivado a partir de modelos de escolha discreta descrevendo o comportamento do consumidor. Esse sistema é então combinado com hipóteses sobre as funções custo e sobre o comportamento de determinação dos preços por parte das firmas para gerar preços e quantidades de equilíbrio. Os parâmetros a ser estimados são os que determinam os custos marginais das firmas e a distribuição dos gostos dos consumidores. Essa distribuição determina elasticidades e estas, combinadas com o custo marginal e com uma hipótese de equilíbrio de Nash na determinação de preços, determinam preços de equilíbrio. Essas elasticidades e parâmetros de custo desempenham um papel central em análises de questões descritivas e de mudanças no ambiente do mercado sob análise.

Ensaios sobre o poder judiciário no Brasil

A tese apresenta três ensaios empíricos sobre os padrões decisórios de magistrados no Brasil, elaborados à partir de bases de dados inéditas e de larga escala, que contém detalhes de dezenas de milhares de processos judiciais na primeira e na segunda instância. As bases de dados são coletadas pelo próprio autor através de programas-robô de coleta em massa de informações, aplicados aos "links" de acompanhamento processual de tribunais estaduais no Brasil (Paraná, Minas Gerais e Santa Catarina). O primeiro artigo avalia - com base em modelo estatístico - a importância de fatores extra-legais sobre os resultados de ações judiciais, na Justiça Estadual do Paraná. Isto é, se os juízes favorecem sistematicamente a parte hipossuficiente (beneficiária de Assistência Judiciária Gratuita). No segundo artigo, estuda-se a relação entre a duração de ações cíveis no primeiro grau e a probabilidade de reforma da sentença, utilizando-se dados da Justiça Estadual de Minas Gerais. O objetivo é avaliar se existe um dilema entre a duração e a qualidade das sentenças. Dito de outra forma, se existe um dilema entre a observância do direito ao devido processo legal e a celeridade processual. O último artigo teste a hipótese - no âmbito de apelações criminais e incidentes recursais no Tribunal de Justiça de Santa Catarina - de que as origens profissionais dos desembargadores influenciam seus padrões decisórios. Isto é, testa-se a hipótese de que desembargadores/relatores oriundos da carreira da advocacia são mais "garantistas" ( e desembargadores oriundos da carreira do Ministério Público são menos "garantistas") relativamente aos seus pares oriundos da carreira da magistratura. Testam-se as hipóteses com base em um modelo estatístico que explica a probabilidade de uma decisão recursal favorável ao réu, em função da origem de carreira do relator do recurso, além de um conjunto de características do processo e do órgão julgador.

Estimation of random coefficients logit demand models: an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market

Estimation of demand and supply in differentiated products markets is a central issue in Empirical Industrial Organization and has been used to study the effects of taxes, merges, introduction of new goods, market power, among others. Logit and Random Coefficients Logit are examples of demand models used to study these effects. For the supply side it is generally supposed a Nash equilibrium in prices. This work presents a detailed discussion of these models of demand and supply as well as the procedure for estimation. Lastly, is made an application to the Brazilian fixed income fund market.

Is what you say what you do? Analyzing and comparing the effect of buyer-supplier relationship in the Brazilian and Chinese supplier selection criteria

Choosing properly and efficiently a supplier has been challenging practitioners and academics since 1960’s. Since then, countless studies had been performed and relevant changes in the business scenario were considered such as global sourcing, quality-orientation, just-in-time practices. It is almost consensus that quality should be the selection driver, however, some polemical findings questioned this general agreement. Therefore, one of the objectives of the study was to identify the supplier selection criteria and bring this discussion back again. Moreover, Dickson (1966) suggested existing business relationship as selection criterion, then it was reviewed the importance of business relationship for the company and noted a set of potential negative effects that could rise from it. By considering these side effects of relationship, this research aimed to investigate how the relationship could influence the supplier selection and how its harmful effects could affect the selection process. The impact of this phenomenon was investigated cross-nationally. The research strategy adopted was a controlled experiment via vignette combined with discrete choice analysis. The data collections were performed in China and Brazil. By examining the results, it could be drawn five major findings. First, when purchasers were asked to declare their supplier selection priorities, quality was stated as the most important independently of country and relationship. This result was consistent with diverse studies since 60’s. However, when purchasers were exposed to a multi-criteria trade-off situation, their actual selection priorities deviate from what they had declared. In the actual decision-making without influence of buyer-supplier relationship, Brazilian purchasers focused on price and Chinese buyers prioritized delivery then price. This observation reinforced some controversial prior studies of Verma & Pullman (1998) and Hirakubo & Kublin (1998). Second, through the introduction of the buyer-supplier relationship (operationalized via relational capital) in the supplier selection process, this research extended the existing studies and found that Brazilian buyers still focused on price. The relationship became just another criterion for supplier selection such as quality and delivery. However, from the Chinese sample, the results suggested that quality was totally discarded and the decision was majorly made through price and relationship. The third finding suggested that relational capital could legitimate the quality and sustainability of the supplier and replaces these selection criteria and made the decisional task less complex. Additionally, with the relational capital, the decision-makings were associated to few biases such as availability cognition, commitment, confirmatory and perceived biases. By analyzing the purchasers’ behavior, relational capital inducted buyers of both countries to relax in their purchasing requirements (quality, delivery and sustainability) leading to potential negative effects. In the Brazilian sample, the phenomenon of willing to pay a higher price for a lower quality offer demonstrated to be a potential counterproductive and suboptimal decision. Finally, the last finding was associated to the cultural effect on the buyers’ decisions. From the outcome, it is possible to observe that if a purchaser’s cultural background is more relation-oriented, the more he will tend to use relational capital as a decision heuristic, thus, the purchaser will be more susceptible to the potential relationship’s side effects

Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado : os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros

Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos “links” com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de “market-share” na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de “share”.

Larval predation on different instars in blowfly populations

Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera: Calliphoridae) é uma predadora facultativa sobre outras moscas-varejeiras, durante o terceiro instar larval. Nesse estudo, nos investigamos a taxa de predação de C. albiceps sobre larvas de primeiro, segundo e terceiro instar de C. megacephala e C. macellaria comparando a vulnerabilidade dos instares larvais frente à predadora. Para as presas de primeiro e segundo instar, C. albiceps apresentou maior taxa de predação sobre C. megacephala. Já sobre larvas de terceiro instar a predadora consumiu mais C. macellaria. O comportamento de C. albiceps sobre as duas espécies de presas sugere uma mudança na estratégia de forrageio da predadora e essa mudança pode ter influencia sobre a comunidade de dípteros necrófagos.

Ocorrência de begomovírus de plantas de pimentão no Estado de São Paulo e comportamento de genótipos de Capsicum spp. ao tomato severe rugose virus e a Bemisia tabaci meam1

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Proteção de Plantas) - FCA

Biochemical Analysis of a Castor Bean Leaf Extract and its Insecticidal Effects Against Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Plant extracts represent a great source of molecules, with insecticidal activity, which are used for pest control in several crop production systems. This work aimed to evaluate the toxicity of an aqueous extract of leaves of castor bean against larvae of Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in search for different classes of molecules with insecticidal activities by using in vitro assays. The effects of the castor bean leaf extract on the food utilization, development, and survival of S. frugiperda larvae was evaluated by feeding the larvae an artificial diet supplemented with different concentrations of the extract (0%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, and 10% w/v). The effects observed were dose-dependent, and the highest concentration evaluated (10% w/v) was the one the most affected food utilization by altering the nutritional indices, as well as larval weight gain, development time, and survivorship. In vitro assays to detect saponins, lectins, and trypsin inhibitors in the castor bean leaf extract were performed, but only trypsin inhibitors were detected. No preference for the diet source was detected in S. frugiperda by feeding the larvae in choice experiments with diets containing different concentrations of the castor bean extract tested. The data obtained indicate the existence of a potential molecule in the tested extract of castor bean to be used as an alternative insecticide to be integrated in the management of S. frugiperda.

Social responsibility as a tool for destination competitiveness

Máster en Economía del Turismo, Transporte y Medio Ambiente

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Analisi delle preferenze per le diverse categorie di pomodoro trasformato nel food service

Il pomodoro è una delle colture principali del panorama agro-alimentare italiano e rappresenta un ingrediente base della tradizione culinaria nazionale. Il pomodoro lavorato dall’industria conserviera può essere trasformato in diverse tipologie merceologiche, che si differenziano in base alla tecniche di lavorazione impiegate ed alle caratteristiche del prodotto finito. la percentuale di spesa totale destinata all’acquisto di cibo fuori casa è in aumento a livello globale e l’interesse dell’industria alimentare nei confronti di questo canale di vendita è quindi crescente. Mentre sono numerose le indagine in letteratura che studiano i processi di acquisto dei consumatori finali, non ci sono evidenze di studi simili condotti sugli operatori del Food Service. Obiettivo principale della ricerca è quello di valutare le preferenze dei responsabili acquisti del settore Food Service per diverse tipologie di pomodoro trasformato, in relazione ad una gamma di attributi rilevanti del prodotto e di caratteristiche del cliente. La raccolta dei dati è avvenuta attraverso un esperimento di scelta ipotetico realizzato in Italia e alcuni mercati esteri. Dai risultati ottenuti dall’indagine emerge che i Pelati sono la categoria di pomodoro trasformato preferita dai responsabili degli acquisti del settore Food Service intervistati, con il 35% delle preferenze dichiarate nell'insieme dei contesti di scelta proposti, seguita dalla Polpa (25%), dalla Passata (20%) e dal Concentrato (15%). Dai risultati ottenuti dalla stima del modello econometrico Logit a parametri randomizzati è emerso che alcuni attributi qualitativi di fiducia (credence), spesso impiegati nelle strategie di differenziazione e posizionamento da parte dell’industria alimentare nel mercato Retail, possono rivestire un ruolo importante anche nell’influenzare le preferenze degli operatori del Food Service. Questo potrebbe quindi essere un interessante filone di ricerca da sviluppare nel futuro, possibilmente con l'impiego congiunto di metodologie di analisi basate su esperimenti di scelta ipotetici e non ipotetici.

Female mating preferences and male coloration covary with water transparency in a Lake Victoria cichlid fish

Rapid speciation in Lake Victoria cichlid fish of the genus Pundamilia may be facilitated by sexual selection: female mate choice exerts sexual selection on male nuptial coloration within species and maintains reproductive isolation between species. However, declining water transparency coincides with increasingly dull coloration and increasing hybridization. In the present study, we investigated the mechanism underlying this pattern in Pundamilia nyererei, a species that interbreeds with a sister species in turbid but not in clear water. We compared measures of intraspecific sexual selection between two populations from locations that differ in water transparency. First, in laboratory mate-choice experiments, conducted in clear water and under broad-spectrum illumination, we found that females originating from turbid water have significantly weaker preferences for male coloration than females originating from clear water. Second, both the hue and body coverage of male coloration differ between populations, which is consistent with adaptation to different photic habitats. These findings suggest that the observed relationship between male coloration and water transparency is not mediated by environmental variation alone. Rather, female mating preferences are indicated to have changed in response to this variation, constituting the first evidence for intraspecific preference-trait co-evolution in cichlid fish. (C) 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 99, 398-406.

Is less more? Patients' preferences for drug information leaflets

Present package information leaflets do not fulfil the needs of many patients. The objective of this study was to investigate patients' preferences towards content and presentation of drug information leaflets using prepared medication brochures in a discrete choice experiment.

Segregation of species-specific male attractiveness in f(2) hybrid lake Malawi cichlid fish

Among the huge radiations of haplochromine cichlid fish in Lakes Malawi and Victoria, closely related species are often reproductively isolated via female mate choice although viable fertile hybrids can be produced when females are confined only with heterospecific males. We generated F(2) hybrid males from a cross between a pair of closely related sympatric cichlid fish from Lake Malawi. Laboratory mate choice experiments using microsatellite paternity analysis demonstrated that F(2) hybrid males differed significantly in their attractiveness to females of the two parental species, indicating heritable variation in traits involved in mate choice that may contribute to reproductive isolation between these species. We found no significant correlation between male mating success and any measurement of male colour pattern. A simple quantitative genetic model of reproductive isolation suggests that there may be as few as two chromosomal regions controlling species-specific attractiveness. We propose that adaptive radiation of Lake Malawi cichlids could be facilitated by the presence of genes with major effects on mate choice and reproductive isolation.