Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast

25 p.

Value Estimation and Comparison in Multi-Attribute Choice

The following work explores the processes individuals utilize when making multi-attribute choices. With the exception of extremely simple or familiar choices, most decisions we face can be classified as multi-attribute choices. In order to evaluate and make choices in such an environment, we must be able to estimate and weight the particular attributes of an option. Hence, better understanding the mechanisms involved in this process is an important step for economists and psychologists. For example, when choosing between two meals that differ in taste and nutrition, what are the mechanisms that allow us to estimate and then weight attributes when constructing value? Furthermore, how can these mechanisms be influenced by variables such as attention or common physiological states, like hunger?

In order to investigate these and similar questions, we use a combination of choice and attentional data, where the attentional data was collected by recording eye movements as individuals made decisions. Chapter 1 designs and tests a neuroeconomic model of multi-attribute choice that makes predictions about choices, response time, and how these variables are correlated with attention. Chapter 2 applies the ideas in this model to intertemporal decision-making, and finds that attention causally affects discount rates. Chapter 3 explores how hunger, a common physiological state, alters the mechanisms we utilize as we make simple decisions about foods.

Aplicando netnografía a la obtención del mapa de posicionamiento para empresas de distribución alimentaria

[ES] Las comunidades online se han convertido en un lugar de encuentro muy popular para los consumidores que les permite compartir información. En este artículo se presenta una técnica de información novedosa como la netnografía, y se aplica para determinar cuál es el posicionamiento de las empresas de distribución alimentaria. Tras la recogida y análisis de 506 mensajes válidos de la comunidad online Ciao, se pudo conocer qué atributos se asociaban a seis establecimientos de alimentación analizados. Mercadona se asocia con la calidad de su marca de distribuidor y una escasa variedad de marcas/productos. Las tiendas discount, Lidl y DIA, destacan por la posibilidad de mejora en la limpieza del establecimiento y la localización de los productos. Los hipermercados, Eroski, Alcampo y Carrefour, son destacados por su variedad de marcas/productos, y alejado del domicilio. También se ha identificado a los competidores más directos de cada empresa, encontrándose una competencia entre los formatos de venta del mismo tipo (intratipo). El uso de la netnografia, técnica relativamente reciente, supone la mayor originalidad del trabajo. Además, las conclusiones obtenidas, que son coincidentes con estudios anteriores, muestran que la netnografía puede ser una fuente de información para determinar cuál es la imagen comercial y el posicionamiento de las empresas.

Custo efetividade do uso do Peguinterferon alfa 2a combinado com Ribavirina no tratamento de respondedores virológicos lentos coinfectados com VHC/HIV

No mundo, as hepatites decorrentes de infecções virais têm sido uma das grandes preocupações em saúde pública devido a seu caráter crônico, curso assintomático e pela sua capacidade de determinar a perda da função hepática. Com o uso em larga escala de medicamentos antirretrovirais, a doença hepática relacionada à infecção pelo vírus da hepatite C (VHC) contribuiu para uma mudança radical na história natural da infecção pelo vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV). Não se sabe ao certo o peso da coinfecção VHC/HIV no Brasil, mas evidências apontam que independentemente da região geográfica, esses indivíduos apresentam maiores dificuldades em eliminar o VHC após o tratamento farmacológico, quando comparados a monoinfectados. No âmbito do SUS, o tratamento antiviral padrão para portadores do genótipo 1 do VHC e do HIV é a administração de peguinterferon associado à Ribavirina. Quanto ao período de tratamento e aos indivíduos que devem ser incluídos, os dois protocolos terapêuticos mais recentes possuem divergências. A diretriz mais atual preconiza o tratamento de indivíduos respondedores precoces somados a respondedores virológicos lentos, enquanto a diretriz imediatamente anterior exclui na 12 semana indivíduos que não respondem completamente. Com base nessa divergência, esse estudo objetivou avaliar o custo-efetividade do tratamento contra o VHC em indivíduos portadores do genótipo 1, coinfectados com o HIV, virgens de tratamento antiviral, não cirróticos e imunologicamente estabilizados, submetidos às regras de tratamento antiviral estabelecidos pelas duas mais recentes diretrizes terapêuticas direcionadas ao atendimento pelo SUS. Para tal, foi elaborado um modelo matemático de decisão, baseado em cadeias de Markov, que simulou a progressão da doença hepática mediante o tratamento e não tratamento. Foi acompanhada uma coorte hipotética de mil indivíduos homens, maiores de 40 anos. Adotou-se a perspectiva do Sistema Único de Saúde, horizonte temporal de 30 anos e taxa de desconto de 5% para os custos e consequências clínicas. A extensão do tratamento para respondedores lentos proporcionou incremento de 0,28 anos de vida ajustados por qualidade (QALY), de 7% de sobrevida e aumento de 60% no número de indivíduos que eliminaram o VHC. Além dos esperados benefícios em eficácia, a inclusão de respondedores virológicos lentos mostrou-se uma estratégia custo-efetiva ao alcançar um incremental de custo efetividade de R$ 44.171/QALY, valor abaixo do limiar de aceitabilidade proposto pela Organização Mundial da Saúde OMS - (R$ 63.756,00/QALY). A análise de sensibilidade demonstrou que as possíveis incertezas contidas no modelo são incapazes de alterar o resultado final, evidenciando, assim, a robustez da análise. A inclusão de indivíduos coinfectados VHC/HIV respondedores virológicos lentos no protocolo de tratamento apresenta-se, do ponto de vista fármaco-econômico, como uma estratégia com relação de custoefetividade favorável para o Sistema Único de Saúde. Sua adoção é perfeitamente compatível com a perspectiva do sistema, ao retornar melhores resultados em saúdeassociados a custos abaixo de um teto orçamentário aceitável, e com o da sociedade, ao evitar em maior grau, complicações e internações quando comparado à não inclusão.

Coleta seletiva em condomínios: realidades, possibilidades e desafios - estudo de caso do município de Niterói, RJ

A questão dos resíduos sólidos tornou-se um tema preocupante uma vez que os mesmos têm sido gerados em grande quantidade na sociedade capitalista do consumo com a substituição dos produtos e criação de complexas embalagens. Esse fator reflete no meio ambiente, pois há uma dificuldade de gestão adequada desses resíduos sem que os mesmos causem impactos ambientais negativos devido à sua demora em degradar-se e aos elementos contaminantes que podem conter. Alternativas de tratamento e destinação final vêm sendo incentivadas para atenuar os malefícios gerados pelos resíduos sólidos. A reciclagem está se destacando como mecanismo de utilização dos resíduos sólidos como matéria prima. A coleta seletiva é uma ferramenta fundamental para viabilizar o processo de reciclagem. Dessa forma a participação popular se faz necessária visto que os consumidores são fonte geradora dos resíduos e efetuando uma separação logo após o consumo facilita e qualifica todo o procedimento. Contudo os municípios brasileiros vêm apresentados baixos índices de reciclagem e coleta seletiva. Uma revisão bibliográfica foi feita acerca de casos de sucesso no Brasil e no mundo em ambas as práticas. Questões pertinentes à compreensão de todas as vertentes envolvidas também serão abordadas através de fundamento teórico. Os prédios residenciais representam grande contribuição nesse processo de geração de resíduos uma vez que concentram elevado contingente populacional em pequena área. Niterói é um município urbano localizado na região metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, com uma população considerável possuindo diversos prédios e condomínios residenciais de grande porte. Existe um programa de coleta seletiva municipal, promovido pela Companhia de Limpeza Urbana de Niterói (CLIN) que está em vigor há mais de quinze anos que direciona os recicláveis a duas cooperativas de catadores no município (COOPCANIT e Morro do Céu). Esse estudo busca identificar todos os atores envolvidos no programa de coleta seletiva da CLIN (moradores, CLIN, COOPCANIT) assim como avaliar o desempenho do programa e sugerir formas de melhoria do mesmo baseado no referencial teórico. A partir de visitas técnicas, entrevistas com os responsáveis e a aplicação de questionários de avaliação da consciência ambiental de moradores de condomínios residenciais com e sem oferta do serviço de coleta seletiva. Foram verificadas falhas no programa como a pouca divulgação do mesmo e ausência de programa de educação ambiental aos moradores dos condomínios, refletindo na baixa adesão popular. Assim como foi possível identificar aspectos positivos como a busca por parcerias, representada pela atuação da empresa AMPLA que oferece desconto na conta de luz aos moradores que entregam seus resíduos nos postos de entrega voluntários. Algumas recomendações e sugestões são feitas aos gestores locais assim como propostas de futuros trabalhos e estudos relevantes ao problema.

Income tax progressivity, growth, income inequality and welfare

This paper analyzes the effects of personal income tax progressivity on long-run economic growth, income inequality and social welfare. The quantitative implications of income tax progressivity increments are illustrated for the US economy under three main headings: individual effects (reduced labor supply and savings, and increased dispersion of tax rates); aggregate effects (lower GDP growth and lower income inequality); and welfare effects (lower dispersion of consumption across individuals and higher leisure levels, but also lower growth of future consumption). The social discount factor proves to be crucial for this third effect: a higher valuation of future generations' well-being requires a lower level of progressivity. Additionally, if tax revenues are used to provide a public good rather than just being discarded, a higher private valuation of such public goods will also call for a lower level of progressivity.

Avaliação do custo-efetividade da incorporação do Espectômetro de Massa em Tandem no Programa Nacional de Triagem Neonatal no Brasil para diagnóstico da Fenilcetonúria e MCAD.

A Espectrometria de Massa em Tandem (MS/MS) é mundialmente considerada padrão ouro para a Triagem Neonatal (TN) de Erros Inatos do Metabolismo (IEM). Além de apresentar melhor sensibilidade e especificidade possibilita rastrear uma vasta gama de IEM usando um único teste. Atualmente o Programa Nacional de Triagem Neonatal (PNTN) rastreia cinco doenças (Fenilcetonúria, Hipotiroidismo Congênito, Fibrose Cística, Hemoglobinopatias e Deficiência da Biotinidase). Uma das metas do PNTN é o aprimoramento e a incorporação de novas doenças e/ou tecnologias. Com a recente recomendação da CONITEC (Comissão Nacional de Incorporação de Tecnologias) para aquisição do MS/MS para diagnóstico de doenças raras, vislumbra-se o incremento desta tecnologia para ampliação de doenças triadas, melhora da qualidade do teste diagnóstico, corroborando para melhorar qualidade de vida das crianças acometidas pelos EIM. Este trabalho teve como objetivo realizar uma análise de custo efetividade, para incorporação da tecnologia de tandem MS/MS na triagem neonatal, sob a perspectiva do SUS. Desta maneira buscou-se comparar diferentes cenários da TN com a tecnologia atualmente utilizada (Fluorimetria) somente para Fenilcetonúria (PKU), e com MS/MS para rastreio da PKU e da Deficiência de Cadeia Média Acyl-Coenzima Desidrogenase (MCAD). Para tanto construiu-se um modelo matemático de decisão baseados em cadeias de Markov que simulou a TN da PKU e da MCAD, bem como a história natural da MCAD. Foi acompanhada uma coorte hipotética de cem mil recém-nascidos. O horizonte temporal adotado foi a expectativa de vida da população brasileira de 78 anos de acordo com IBGE. Utilizou-se uma taxa de desconto de 5% para os custos e consequências clínicas para ambos os cenários propostos. Quando incorporado o MS/MS para triagem da PKU os ganhos em saúde continuaram os mesmos, pois o desempenho do MS/MS e da Fluorimetria foram praticamente iguais (efetividade), porém o custo incremental foi quatro vezes maior para a mesma efetividade, o que torna o MS/MS somente para PKU não custo efetiva (dominada). No entanto, quando analisado o cenário do MS/MS para triagem da PKU e da MCAD o custo incremental do MS/MS no PNTN foi menor por causa da economia feita uma vez que é possível realizar ambos os testes no mesmo o teste do pezinho atual.

Does temporal discounting explain unhealthy behavior? A systematic review and reinforcement learning perspective.

The tendency to make unhealthy choices is hypothesized to be related to an individual's temporal discount rate, the theoretical rate at which they devalue delayed rewards. Furthermore, a particular form of temporal discounting, hyperbolic discounting, has been proposed to explain why unhealthy behavior can occur despite healthy intentions. We examine these two hypotheses in turn. We first systematically review studies which investigate whether discount rates can predict unhealthy behavior. These studies reveal that high discount rates for money (and in some instances food or drug rewards) are associated with several unhealthy behaviors and markers of health status, establishing discounting as a promising predictive measure. We secondly examine whether intention-incongruent unhealthy actions are consistent with hyperbolic discounting. We conclude that intention-incongruent actions are often triggered by environmental cues or changes in motivational state, whose effects are not parameterized by hyperbolic discounting. We propose a framework for understanding these state-based effects in terms of the interplay of two distinct reinforcement learning mechanisms: a "model-based" (or goal-directed) system and a "model-free" (or habitual) system. Under this framework, while discounting of delayed health may contribute to the initiation of unhealthy behavior, with repetition, many unhealthy behaviors become habitual; if health goals then change, habitual behavior can still arise in response to environmental cues. We propose that the burgeoning development of computational models of these processes will permit further identification of health decision-making phenotypes.

利用计算机仿真与系统辨识求解导弹弹道轨迹

提出了求解某武器系统导弹弹道轨迹的两种方法：计算机仿真和系统辨识方法．详细介绍了导弹系统的计算机仿真模型，并利用控制理论和数值分析的方法对仿真模型求解；根据系统辨识理论，将整个系统看作“黑箱”，建立与输入、输出数据等价的模型，引入折息因子对模型进行辨识．最后分别给出了计算机仿真试验曲线和系统辨识试验曲线，证明了两种求解方法的有效性。

海洛因成瘾者决策障碍及其行为机制的研究----短视行为及冲动、强迫和药物在决策中的作用

Addiction can be investigated from the perspective of decision making. Addicts usually make incorrect decisions when facing drug-related cues or they are driven to drugs, resulting in repeated drug seeking and taking. The present study adopted temporal discounting as behavioral task and on the basis of the fact that heroin addicts discounted more steeply than health participants (addicts preferred to choose immediate but smaller reward, regarded as myopia) which was consistent with previous research, three questions was raised and being concentrated on in this study. The first question was whether the character of myopia would be revealed in a somewhat complicated task? We designed a card game in which the participants were tested whether they would play the trump card in order to win a trick but not the whole game. Addicts played the trump card significantly earlier than controls did, indicating they focused on immediate single trick but not the game. Moreover, the performance in the card game and temporal discounting correlated significantly, suggesting addicts would display myopic decision not only in simply task like temporal discounting but also in task more complicated and similar to daily-life decision. Secondly, the present study adopted various kinds of temporal discounting tasks. In previous research, temporal discounting gain task was usually adopted. In the present study, we also adopted temporal discounting loss task. In either gain or loss task, there are two delayed amounts. Results showed in each decision condition addicts made poorer performance compared with control but in larger amount condition, addicts actually improved their decision performance. Meanwhile, addicts did not show loss aversion due to their close discount rates in gain and loss task while for controls, the discount rates were much lower in loss task than those in gain task. Thus we demonstrated that addicts were insensitive to negative outcomes by the method of temporal discounting. Finally, we investigated three mechanisms which exerted impacts on decision making. We adopted Go/NoGo task to test impulsivity and found addicts commits more errors (higher impulsivity) than controls did. We also designed a behavioral task which could be used to test drug-related compulsive behavior on human participants. Results showed addicts produced stereotyped key-pressing behavior when presented with drug-related cues. Furthermore, it was found participants with higher impulsivity displayed poorer performance in decision making but addicts with higher compulsivity only made poorer performance in smaller amount decision and the correlation between compulsivity and decision making was relative weak. In order to investigate the role of susceptibility and effect of drugs, we adopted years of abusing heroin as the indictor and discovered addicts with longer history of heroin abusing made poorer performance in smaller amount condition than addicts with shorter history. Also, the earlier the addicts began to use drug, the worse they would do in the smaller amount decision. The results here indicated drug itself could exert impact on decision making in certain condition. The present study revealed three characters of heroin addicts from the aspect of decision making: (1) focusing upon current benefit due to they preferred to choose immediate gain and delayed loss; (2) showed no loss aversion compared with healthy participants (3) inability to inhibit inappropriate response particularly when facing drug-related cue. These characters contribute to the facts that addicts seek and take drugs repeatedly while ignoring the negative consequences caused by abusing drugs.

Competing manufacturers in a retail supply chain: On contractual form and coordination

It is common for a retailer to sell products from competing manufacturers. How then should the firms manage their contract negotiations? The supply chain coordination literature focuses either on a single manufacturer selling to a single retailer or one manufacturer selling to many (possibly competing) retailers. We find that some key conclusions from those market structures do not apply in our setting, where multiple manufacturers sell through a single retailer. We allow the manufacturers to compete for the retailer's business using one of three types of contracts: a wholesale-price contract, a quantity-discount contract, or a two-part tariff. It is well known that the latter two, more sophisticated contracts enable the manufacturer to coordinate the supply chain, thereby maximizing the profits available to the firms. More importantly, they allow the manufacturer to extract rents from the retailer, in theory allowing the manufacturer to leave the retailer with only her reservation profit. However, we show that in our market structure these two sophisticated contracts force the manufacturers to compete more aggressively relative to when they only offer wholesale-price contracts, and this may leave them worse off and the retailer substantially better off. In other words, although in a serial supply chain a retailer may have just cause to fear quantity discounts and two-part tariffs, a retailer may actually prefer those contracts when offered by competing manufacturers. We conclude that the properties a contractual form exhibits in a one-manufacturer supply chain may not carry over to the realistic setting in which multiple manufacturers must compete to sell their goods through the same retailer. © 2010 INFORMS.

Cost of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.

The research and development costs of 93 randomly selected new chemical entities (NCEs) were obtained from a survey of 12 U.S.-owned pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the pre-tax average cost of new drug development. The costs of abandoned NCEs were linked to the costs of NCEs that obtained marketing approval. For base case parameter values, the estimated out-of-pocket cost per approved NCE is $114 million (1987 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a 9% discount rate yielded an average cost estimate of $231 million (1987 dollars).

The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs.

The research and development costs of 68 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per new drug is 403 million US dollars (2000 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 11% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of 802 million US dollars (2000 dollars). When compared to the results of an earlier study with a similar methodology, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 7.4% above general price inflation.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.