Intention, foresight and ending life : a response to "The Double Effect effect" by Charles Foster, Jonathan Herring, Karen Melham and Tony Hope, (CQ 20(1))

In this paper I examine the recent arguments by Charles Foster, Jonathan Herring, Karen Melham and Tony Hope against the utility of the doctrine of double effect. One basis on which they reject the utility of the doctrine is their claim that it is notoriously difficult to apply what they identify as its 'core' component, namely, the distinction between intention and foresight. It is this contention that is the primarily focus of my article. I argue against this claim that the intention/foresight distinction remains a fundamental part of the law in those jurisdictions where intention remains an element of the offence of murder and that, accordingly, it is essential ro resolve the putative difficulties of applying the intention/foresight distinction so as to ensure the integrity of the law of murder. I argue that the main reasons advanced for the claim that the intention/foresight distinction is difficult to apply are ultimately unsustainable, and that the distinction is not as difficult to apply as the authors suggest.

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province [山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率极死因变化与差别分解分析]

Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomized trials of chemotherapy plus cetuximab as first-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES: Four randomized phase II/III trials investigated the addition of cetuximab to platinum-based, first-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A meta-analysis was performed to examine the benefit/risk ratio for the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The meta-analysis included individual patient efficacy data from 2018 patients and individual patient safety data from 1970 patients comprising respectively the combined intention-to-treat and safety populations of the four trials. The effect of adding cetuximab to chemotherapy was measured by hazard ratios (HRs) obtained using a Cox proportional hazards model and odds ratios calculated by logistic regression. Survival rates at 1 year were calculated. All applied models were stratified by trial. Tests on heterogeneity of treatment effects across the trials and sensitivity analyses were performed for all endpoints. RESULTS: The meta-analysis demonstrated that the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival (HR 0.88, p=0.009, median 10.3 vs 9.4 months), progression-free survival (HR 0.90, p=0.045, median 4.7 vs 4.5 months) and response (odds ratio 1.46, p<0.001, overall response rate 32.2% vs 24.4%) compared with chemotherapy alone. The safety profile of chemotherapy plus cetuximab in the meta-analysis population was confirmed as manageable. Neither trials nor patient subgroups defined by key baseline characteristics showed significant heterogeneity for any endpoint. CONCLUSION: The addition of cetuximab to platinum-based, first-line chemotherapy for advanced NSCLC significantly improved outcome for all efficacy endpoints with an acceptable safety profile, indicating a favorable benefit/risk ratio.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

The idea of women : representations of power in the work of Charles Bukowski

This thesis is a comparative textual analysis of Charles Bukowski's representations of power in relation to the idea of women. The exegesis explores Bukowski's idea of women and power as exemplified by the representational differences between his short stories for Hustler Magazine and his novel Women. The creative piece, a novel, "Many a Broken Hearted Woman" informed and was informed by this research.

Imaginative cinematic geographies of Australia : the mapped view in Charles Chauvel's Jedda and Baz Luhrmann's Australia

Cinema is central to the mediation of history and the construction of imaginative geographies that offer a politicized view of the land and its people. This article investigates cinematic representations of landscape and analyses the ways in which maps and journeys in Charles Chauvel’s film Jedda (1955) and Baz Luhrmann’s Australia (2008)—both set in the far North of Australia—articulate conceptions of “Australianness” in relationship to Indigeneity and the land. We argue the exotic tropics and arid outback regions of northern Australia function metonymically as representative of the nation in these films, working to naturalize ideological values and affirm dominant narratives of history, identity, and entitlement.

Origins of Australian Football: Victoria's Early History. Volume 3: Covert 'Professionalism': The Power of the Wealthy Clubs 1886 to 1890

This volume continues the story of football in Marvellous Melbourne during the 1880s. At this time the VFA continued to expand as Melbourne’s boom continued apace. In 1886 Port Melbourne, Prahran, St Kilda, Footscray and South Williamstown joined the competition, and the Ballarat clubs Ballarat, Ballarat Imperial and South Ballarat were also contending for the VFA premiership. In 1886 matches were divided into four quarters, goal umpires waved two flags to announce a goal, and time clocks and bells were employed to mark the end of quarters. Victoria also played inter-colonial matches against New South Wales, Tasmania and South Australia. VFA secretary T.S. Marshall was at the forefront of fighting the game’s turn towards professionalism, but although it was illegal to pay players, the practice continued. The period 1886 to 1890 also set the stage for the eventual formation of the Victorian Football League, for by the end of the 1880s the Victorian Football Association had become in effect a two-tier competition. The most popular clubs in the VFA, South Melbourne, Geelong, Carlton and Essendon collected the lion’s share of the gate money, which they used to build their wealth and entrench their position as the dominant Victorian teams. The lower tier clubs had to make do with paltry gate money and season fixtures that advantaged the strong clubs. In these fixtures the strong clubs elected to play each other first to increase their gate money, and only deemed to play the poorer clubs at the start of the season. This led to an increasing divide between the VFA’s rich and poor, and by 1890 South Williamstown and Prahran merged with Williamstown and St Kilda respectively, University dropped out of senior ranks, and the Ballarat clubs were excluded from competing for the VFA premiership, which left 12 senior clubs until Collingwood’s emergence in 1892. At this time, no team was as powerful as South Melbourne, which experienced the greatest success in the club’s VFA and VFL history when it collected triple premiership crowns in 1888, 1889, and 1890. South Melbourne was a most ambitious club and spearheaded the move towards professionalism, although this could not be made public. The fine teams it produced at this time contained some of the greatest players of the era, such as Peter Burns, “Sonny” Elms and “Dinny” McKay, and it looked after players with health insurance, jobs, inter-colonial trips, and other incentives. Geelong’s premiership in 1886 was perhaps its greatest triumph, but this success was followed by a premiership drought that would last for 39 years. Carlton remained one of Victorian football’s power clubs, and after securing the premiership in 1887 continued to compete for top honours. As always, the game became ever more popular and world record crowds of over 30,000 attended matches between South Melbourne, Carlton, Geelong and Essendon.

Irish Folklore Commission 1935-1970 : history, ideology, methodology

Between 1935 and 1970 the state-funded Irish Folklore Commission (Coimisiún Béaloideasa Éireann) assembled one of the great folklore collections of the world under the direction of Séamus Ó Duilearga (James Hamilton Delargy). The aim of this study is to recount and assess the work and achievement of this commission. The cultural, linguistic, political and ideological factors that had a bearing on the establishment and making permanent of the Commission and that impinged on many aspects of its work are here elucidated. The genesis of the Commission is traced and the vision and mission of Séamus Ó Duilearga are outlined. The negotiations that preceded the setting up of the Commission in 1935 as well as protracted efforts from 1940 to 1970 to place it on a permanent foundation are recounted and examined at length. All the various collecting programmes and other activities of the Commission are described in detail and many aspects of its work are assessed. This study also deals with the working methods and conditions of employment of the Commission s field and Head Office staff as well as with Séamus Ó Duilearga s direction of the Commission. In executing this work extensive use has been made of primary sources in archives and libraries in Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and North America. This is the first major study of this world-famous institute, which has been praised in passing in numerous publications, but here for the first time its work and achievement are detailed comprehensively and subjected to scholarly scrutiny. This study should be of interest not only to students of Irish oral tradition but to folklorists everywhere. The history of the Irish Folklore Commission is a part of a wider history, that of the history of folkloristics in Europe and North America in particular. Moreover, this work has relevance for many areas of the developing world today, where conditions are not dissimilar to those that pertained in Ireland in the 1930's when this great salvage operation was funded by the young, independent Irish state. It is also hoped that this work will be of practical assistance to scholars and the general public when utilising these collections, and that furthermore it will stimulate research into the assembling of other national collections of folklore as well as into the history of folkloristics in other countries, subjects which in recent years are beginning to attract more and more scholarly attention.

Viemärin päässä Kotkan kaupunki : Vesiensuojelun kehitys Kymijoen itäisen päähaaran suulla 1945-1970

The focus of this thesis is the marine environmental history of the eastern part and the estuary of the Kymi river from 1945 to 1970. There is no previous research on this area from an environmentally historical perspective, nor have many of the sources here discussed been previously used. Therefore the thesis expands academic understanding of local environmental processes and protection in and around the city of Kotka and the Kymi river. The thesis falls within the methodological field of socio-political history, as the research focus is centered on the local process of establishing the nature of environmental problems and solving them. The principal assumption has been that the city of Kotka, due to its ongoing expansion, was slow to respond to environmental hazards. The Kymi river was among the most degraded bodies of water during this period. Kotka on the other hand was a major center of wood processing industry and one of Finlands major industrial ports. In the past the river and its estuary had provided ample resources for fishers. It is this contradictory use of the environment that allows one to discuss the local struggle for the correct use of the environment. Primary sources include local and city archives, environmental studies, and legal documents linked with the above. The archives of the city of Kotka and of various private associations form the core sources. Environmental studies from the research period have been dealt with as sources to the local political power struggle. Alongside with current environmental research they also provide insight into the state of the environment. Another goals has been to accumulate environmental research for a future multidisciplinary study in this area. As a final conclusion it can be said that environmental degradation was widely understood as a problem only in the 1960s. The influential role of the city of Kotka however determined the pace with which these problems were then solved.

Jukka Ruohomäen sävellystuotanto ja tyylipiirteet 1970-luvulla : Esimerkkianalyysi teoksesta Pisces

Tutkimuksessani olen keskittynyt tarkastelemaan säveltäjä Jukka Ruohomäen (s.1947) 1970-luvun sävellystuotantoa ja teosten tyylipiirteitä sekä Ruohomäen toimintaa elektroakustisen musiikin parissa. Ruohomäen 1970-luvun teokset kuuluvat elektroakustisen nauhamusiikin lajiin. Aiempaa tutkimusta hänen musiikistaan ei ole tehty. Tutkimuksen kohteen tarkastelua varten työssä luodaan kuva elektroakustisen musiikin historian, kulttuurin ja analyysin kehitykseen sekä elektroakustisen musiikin terminologiaan ja työtapoihin. Elektroakustisen musiikin historiallista kehitystä seurataan 1800-luvulta 1960- ja 1970-lukujen taitteeseen asti, jotta voidaan ymmärtää, mihin kulttuurihistorialliseen kontekstiin Ruohomäen ensimmäisen sävellyskauden (1970–1978) tuotanto on syntynyt. Historiallisesta näkökulmasta tutkimus on kartoittavaa perustutkimusta. Elektroakustisen musiikin analyysimenetelmiä esittelevässä osassa esitellään ne keskeiset menetelmät, joita tässä työssä käytetään Ruohomäen tuotannon analysointiin. Analyysin pääpaino on teosten äänimateriaalien ja rakenteen tarkastelussa. Tähän tarkasteluun valittuja analyysimenetelmiä ovat Simon Emmersonin elektroakustisten teosten jaottelu äänimateriaalien narratiivisuuden ja syntaktisten piirteiden suhteen, Denis Smalleyn spektromorfologia ja Robert Coganin musiikin kuvaamiseen esittelemä sonogrammikuvaaja. Ruohomäen 1970-luvun teosten esittelyn lisäksi tarkemman analyysin kohteeksi on valittu sävellys Pisces (1975–76). Teosesittelyjen pohjalta muodostetaan kuva Ruohomäen ensimmäisen sävellyskauden vaikutteista ja sävellystyylin muuttumisesta. Ruohomäki painottaa sävellysprosessissa kuuntelun merkitystä ja hänen teoksensa syntyvät pikemminkin vuorovaikutuksessa äänimateriaalin ja sävellysteknologian kanssa kuin tarkan etukäteissuunnitelman ohjaamina. Varhaisten teosten populaarimusiikkivaikutteista Ruohomäen musiikki kehittyi 1970-luvulla kohti puhtaampaa konkreettisen musiikin traditiota. Minimalistiset ja stokastisen musiikin ideat ovat kuultavissa kaikissa ensimmäisen sävellyskauden teoksissa. Analyysi teoksesta Pisces tarkentaa kuvaa Ruohomäen sävellysten tyylipiirteistä. Teosanalyysissä luodaan pohjaa myös Ruohomäen kahden sävellyskauden vertailuun. Jatkotutkimuksen kannalta mielenkiintoiseksi kysymykseksi nousee Ruohomäen kahden sävellyskauden vertailu sekä sävellysteknologian kehityksen ja elektroakustisen musiikin estetiikan suhteen tarkastelu tämän vertailun avulla.

Ranskan rooli ja asema läntisessä liittoutumassa neljännen ja viidennen tasavallan vaihtumakohdassa 1956-1958

The study discusses the position of France as the United States’ ally in NATO in 1956-1958. The concrete position of France and the role that it was envisioned to have are being treated from the point of view of three participants of the Cold War: France, the United States and the Soviet Union. How did these different parties perceive the question and did these views change when the French Fourth Republic turned into the Fifth in 1958? The study is based on published French and American documents of Foreign Affairs. Because of problems with accessibility to the Soviet archival sources, the study uses reports on France-NATO relations of Pravda newspaper, the official organ of the Communist Party of the USSR, to provide information about how the Soviet side saw the question. Due to the nature and use of source material, and the chronological structure of the work, the study belongs methodologically to the research field of History of International Relations. As distinct from political scientists’ field of research, more prone to theorize, the study is characteristically a historical research, a work based on qualitative method and original sources that aims at creating a coherent narrative of the views expressed during the period covered by the study. France’s road to a full membership of NATO is being treated on the basis of research literature, after which discussions about France’s position in the Western Alliance are being chronologically traced for the period of last years of the Fourth Republic and the immediate months of coming back to power of Charles de Gaulle. Right from the spring of 1956 there can be seen aspirations of France, on one hand, to maintain her freedom of action inside the Western Alliance and, on the other, to widen the dialogue between the allies. The decision on France’s own nuclear deterrent was made already during the Fourth Republic, when it was thought to become part of NATO’s common defence. This was to change with de Gaulle. The USA felt that France still fancied herself as a great power and that she could not participate in full in NATO’s common defence because of her colonies. The Soviet Union saw the concrete position of France in the Alliance as in complete dependence on the USA, but her desired role was expressed largely in “Gaullist” terms. The expressions used by the General and the Soviet propaganda were close to each other, but the Soviet Union could not support de Gaulle without endangering the position of the French Communist Party. Between the Fourth and Fifth Republics no great rupture in content took place concerning the views of France’s role and position in the Western Alliance. The questions posed by de Gaulle had been expressed during the whole period of Fourth Republic’s existence. Instead, along with the General the weight and rhetoric of these questions saw a great change. Already in the early phase the Americans saw it possible that with de Gaulle, France would try to change her role. The rupture took place in the form of expression, rather than in its content.

Erityisopetus muutoksen kynnyksellä - tilastollinen kuvaus erityisopetusjärjestelmästä ja sen määrällisestä kehityksestä 1970-luvun lopulta vuoteen 2008

The number of Finnish pupils attending special education has increased for more than a decade (Tilastokeskus 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005a, 2006b, 2007b, 2008b, 2008e, 2009b; Virtanen ja Ratilainen 1996). In the year 2007 nearly third of Finnish comprehensive school pupils took part in special needs education. According to the latest statistics, in the autumn of 2008 approximately 47 000 pupils have been admitted or transferred to special education and approximately 126 000 pupils received part-time special education during the 2007 - 2008 academic year. (Tilastokeskus 2008b, 2009b.) The Finnish special education system is currently under review. The Reform, both in legislation and in practice, began nationwide in the year 2008 (e.g. Special education strategy document, November 2007 and the development project Kelpo). The aim of the study was the statistical description of the Finnish special education system and on the other hand to gain a deeper understanding about the Finnish special education system and its quantitative increase, by analysis based on the nationwide statistical information. Earlier studies have shown that the growth in special education is affected by multiple independent variables and cannot be solely explained by the pupil characteristics. The statistical overview and analysis have been carried out in two parts. In the first part, the description and analysis were based on statistical time series from the academic year 1979 -1980 until 2008. While, in the second, more detailed description and analysis, based on comparable time series from 1995 to 2008 and from 2001-2002 to 2007-2008, is presented. Historical perspective was one part of this study. There was an attempt to find reasons explaining the observed growth in the special needs education from late 1960s to 2008. The majority of the research was based on the nationwide statistics information. In addition to this, materials including educational legislation literature, different kind of records of special education and preceding studies were also used to support the research. The main results of the study, are two statistical descriptions and time series analysis of the quantitative increase of the special needs education. Further, a summary of the plausible factors behind the special education system change and its quantitative increase, is presented. The conclusions coming from the study can be summarised as follows: the comparable statistical time series analysis suggests that the growth in special education after the year 1999 could be a consequence of the changes in the structure of special education and that new group of pupils have been directed to special needs education. Keywords: Special education, comprehensive school, description, statistics, change

Lucien Levy-Bruehl, Albert Einstein, Franz Oppenheimer, Arthur Liebert and his son, Paul Tillich, unidentified woman and Mrs. Charles Blondel outside the Grand Hotel Curhaus during the Davoser Hochschulkurse; Davos, Switzerland Portraits Groups

The Davoser Hochschulkurse took place for the first time in 1928. Mainly university teachers from Germany, France, Switzerland (perhaps elsewhere) offered lectures to students recovering from tuberculosis at the health resort in the Swiss mountains. The lecturers were accommodated at the Grand Hotel Curhaus, where the lectures also took place.

GURS:'Stamps' from the Concentration Camp, a-l.

The design of each are drawn in the miniature style of postage stamps and include mock postage prices. Presumably the method was inspired by the shortage of paper in the camp.GURS in Southern France, where these works were done, but the format is also used to stress the Irony of the content, especially in the Trio of designs marked "Liberte-Egalite-Fraternite. Aside from one marked "Avion de Gurs", all other are simply labelled "GURS" at the bottom, as is this were the country of origin of a postal system.