A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Factors associated with improvement in disability-adjusted life years in patients with HIV/AIDS

Background The epidemic of HIV/AIDS and treatments that have emerged to alleviate, have brought about a shift in the burden of disease from death to quality of life/disability. The aim was to determine which factors are associated with improvements in the level of health of male and female patients with HIV/AIDS in Andalusia, in terms of disability-adjusted life years. Methods Descriptive study based on a sample group of 8800 people on the Andalusian AIDS register between 1983 and 2004. Dependent variables: Life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Independent variables: vital state, sex, age at the time of diagnosis, age at the time of death, transmission category, province of residence, AIDS-indicator disease and the period of diagnosis. A bivariate analysis was carried out to find out if the health level variables changed in accordance with the independent variables. Using the independent variables which had a statistically significant link with the level of health variables, a multivariate linear regression model, disaggregated by gender, was constructed. Results Amongst the women, we found a model which explained the level of health of 64.9%: a link was found between a higher level of health (lower DALYs) and not intravenous drug use, the province of residence, being diagnosed during the HAART era and older age at the time of diagnosis. Amongst the men, we found a model which explained the level of health of 64.4%: a link was found between a higher level of health (lower DALYs) and intravenous drug use, the province of residence, being diagnosed during the HAART era and older age at the time of diagnosis. Conclusion A higher level of health (lower DALY) amongst both men and women was found to be linked to not be intravenous drug user, the province of residence, being diagnosed during the HAART era and older age at the time of diagnosis.

A genome-wide association search for type 2 diabetes genes in African Americans.

African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2DM) yet few studies have examined T2DM using genome-wide association approaches in this ethnicity. The aim of this study was to identify genes associated with T2DM in the African American population. We performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 965 African-American cases with T2DM and end-stage renal disease (T2DM-ESRD) and 1029 population-based controls. The most significant SNPs (n = 550 independent loci) were genotyped in a replication cohort and 122 SNPs (n = 98 independent loci) were further tested through genotyping three additional validation cohorts followed by meta-analysis in all five cohorts totaling 3,132 cases and 3,317 controls. Twelve SNPs had evidence of association in the GWAS (P<0.0071), were directionally consistent in the Replication cohort and were associated with T2DM in subjects without nephropathy (P<0.05). Meta-analysis in all cases and controls revealed a single SNP reaching genome-wide significance (P<2.5×10(-8)). SNP rs7560163 (P = 7.0×10(-9), OR (95% CI) = 0.75 (0.67-0.84)) is located intergenically between RND3 and RBM43. Four additional loci (rs7542900, rs4659485, rs2722769 and rs7107217) were associated with T2DM (P<0.05) and reached more nominal levels of significance (P<2.5×10(-5)) in the overall analysis and may represent novel loci that contribute to T2DM. We have identified novel T2DM-susceptibility variants in the African-American population. Notably, T2DM risk was associated with the major allele and implies an interesting genetic architecture in this population. These results suggest that multiple loci underlie T2DM susceptibility in the African-American population and that these loci are distinct from those identified in other ethnic populations.

Common variants associated with plasma triglycerides and risk for coronary artery disease.

Triglycerides are transported in plasma by specific triglyceride-rich lipoproteins; in epidemiological studies, increased triglyceride levels correlate with higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it is unclear whether this association reflects causal processes. We used 185 common variants recently mapped for plasma lipids (P < 5 × 10(-8) for each) to examine the role of triglycerides in risk for CAD. First, we highlight loci associated with both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride levels, and we show that the direction and magnitude of the associations with both traits are factors in determining CAD risk. Second, we consider loci with only a strong association with triglycerides and show that these loci are also associated with CAD. Finally, in a model accounting for effects on LDL-C and/or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, the strength of a polymorphism's effect on triglyceride levels is correlated with the magnitude of its effect on CAD risk. These results suggest that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally influence risk for CAD.

A genome-wide approach accounting for body mass index identifies genetic variants influencing fasting glycemic traits and insulin resistance.

Recent genome-wide association studies have described many loci implicated in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathophysiology and β-cell dysfunction but have contributed little to the understanding of the genetic basis of insulin resistance. We hypothesized that genes implicated in insulin resistance pathways might be uncovered by accounting for differences in body mass index (BMI) and potential interactions between BMI and genetic variants. We applied a joint meta-analysis approach to test associations with fasting insulin and glucose on a genome-wide scale. We present six previously unknown loci associated with fasting insulin at P < 5 × 10(-8) in combined discovery and follow-up analyses of 52 studies comprising up to 96,496 non-diabetic individuals. Risk variants were associated with higher triglyceride and lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, suggesting a role for these loci in insulin resistance pathways. The discovery of these loci will aid further characterization of the role of insulin resistance in T2D pathophysiology.

The size and burden of mental disorders and other disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Grey matter changes in motor conversion disorder.

OBJECTIVE: To detect anatomical differences in areas related to motor processing between patients with motor conversion disorder (CD) and controls. METHODS: T1-weighted 3T brain MRI data of 15 patients suffering from motor CD (nine with hemiparesis and six with paraparesis) and 25 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers were compared using voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and voxel-based cortical thickness (VBCT) analysis. RESULTS: We report significant cortical thickness (VBCT) increases in the bilateral premotor cortex of hemiparetic patients relative to controls and a trend towards increased grey matter volume (VBM) in the same region. Regression analyses showed a non-significant positive correlation between cortical thickness changes and symptom severity as well as illness duration in CD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Cortical thickness increases in premotor cortical areas of patients with hemiparetic CD provide evidence for altered brain structure in a condition with presumed normal brain anatomy. These may either represent premorbid vulnerability or a plasticity phenomenon related to the disease with the trends towards correlations with clinical variables supporting the latter.

The major genetic determinants of HIV-1 control affect HLA class I peptide presentation.

Infectious and inflammatory diseases have repeatedly shown strong genetic associations within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC); however, the basis for these associations remains elusive. To define host genetic effects on the outcome of a chronic viral infection, we performed genome-wide association analysis in a multiethnic cohort of HIV-1 controllers and progressors, and we analyzed the effects of individual amino acids within the classical human leukocyte antigen (HLA) proteins. We identified >300 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the MHC and none elsewhere. Specific amino acids in the HLA-B peptide binding groove, as well as an independent HLA-C effect, explain the SNP associations and reconcile both protective and risk HLA alleles. These results implicate the nature of the HLA-viral peptide interaction as the major factor modulating durable control of HIV infection.

The burden of musculoskeletal disorders in Catalonia

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs)are extremely common and one of the major causes of disease burden around the world. The original Global Burden of Disease Study was commisioned by the World Bank in 1991 and established the DALY(Disability Ajusted Life Years) as an indicator of disease burden. The DALY calculation allows an assessment of not only mortality but also disability, in terms of time lived in health states worse than perfect health.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in Catalonia in 2010, through calculation of the DALY index.

Concomitant chemoradiotherapy versus acceleration of radiotherapy with or without concomitant chemotherapy in locally advanced head and neck carcinoma (GORTEC 99-02): an open-label phase 3 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant chemoradiotherapy and accelerated radiotherapy independently improve outcomes for patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous-cell carcinoma (HNSCC). We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of a combination of these approaches. METHODS: In our open-label phase 3 randomised trial, we enrolled patients with locally advanced, stage III and IV (non-metastatic) HNSCC and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2. We randomly allocated patients centrally with a computer program (with centre, T stage, N stage, and localisation as minimisation factors) in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy (70 Gy in 7 weeks plus three cycles of 4 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (70 Gy in 6 weeks plus two cycles of 5 days' concomitant carboplatin-fluorouracil), or very accelerated radiotherapy alone (64·8 Gy [1·8 Gy twice daily] in 3·5 weeks). The primary endpoint, progression-free survival (PFS), was assessed in all enrolled patients. This trial is completed. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00828386. FINDINGS: Between Feb 29, 2000, and May 9, 2007, we randomly allocated 279 patients to receive conventional chemoradiotherapy, 280 to accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 281 to very accelerated radiotherapy. Median follow-up was 5·2 years (IQR 4·9-6·2); rates of chemotherapy and radiotherapy compliance were good in all groups. Accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy offered no PFS benefit compared with conventional chemoradiotherapy (HR 1·02, 95% CI 0·84-1·23; p=0·88) or very accelerated radiotherapy (0·83, 0·69-1·01; p=0·060); conventional chemoradiotherapy improved PFS compared with very accelerated radiotherapy (0·82, 0·67-0·99; p=0·041). 3-year PFS was 37·6% (95% CI 32·1-43·4) after conventional chemoradiotherapy, 34·1% (28·7-39·8) after accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy, and 32·2% (27·0-37·9) after very accelerated radiotherapy. More patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group had RTOG grade 3-4 acute mucosal toxicity (226 [84%] of 268 patients) compared with accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy (205 [76%] of 271 patients) or conventional chemoradiotherapy (180 [69%] of 262; p=0·0001). 158 (60%) of 265 patients in the conventional chemoradiotherapy group, 176 (64%) of 276 patients in the accelerated radiotherapy-chemotherapy group, and 190 (70%) of 272 patients in the very accelerated radiotherapy group were intubated with feeding tubes during treatment (p=0·045). INTERPRETATION: Chemotherapy has a substantial treatment effect given concomitantly with radiotherapy and acceleration of radiotherapy cannot compensate for the absence of chemotherapy. We noted the most favourable outcomes for conventional chemoradiotherapy, suggesting that acceleration of radiotherapy is probably not beneficial in concomitant chemoradiotherapy schedules. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health.

The biotechnology of lactic acid bacteria with emphasis on applications in food safety and human health

Selostus: Terveyttä ja ruoan turvallisuutta edistävät maitohappobakteerien biotekniset sovellukset

Mutations in CTC1, encoding conserved telomere maintenance component 1, cause Coats plus.

Coats plus is a highly pleiotropic disorder particularly affecting the eye, brain, bone and gastrointestinal tract. Here, we show that Coats plus results from mutations in CTC1, encoding conserved telomere maintenance component 1, a member of the mammalian homolog of the yeast heterotrimeric CST telomeric capping complex. Consistent with the observation of shortened telomeres in an Arabidopsis CTC1 mutant and the phenotypic overlap of Coats plus with the telomeric maintenance disorders comprising dyskeratosis congenita, we observed shortened telomeres in three individuals with Coats plus and an increase in spontaneous γH2AX-positive cells in cell lines derived from two affected individuals. CTC1 is also a subunit of the α-accessory factor (AAF) complex, stimulating the activity of DNA polymerase-α primase, the only enzyme known to initiate DNA replication in eukaryotic cells. Thus, CTC1 may have a function in DNA metabolism that is necessary for but not specific to telomeric integrity.

Feasibility of radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy after taxane-based induction chemotherapy for nonoperated locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

To assess the use of radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) following taxane-based induction chemotherapy (T-ICT) in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LAHNSCC) and to evaluate the tolerability of CRT after T-ICT. From 01/2006 to 08/2012, 173 LAHNSCC patients treated as a curative intent by T-ICT, followed by definitive RT/CRT were included in this analysis. There was an 86% objective response (OR) after ICT among 154 evaluable patients. Forty-four patients received less than three cycles (25%) and 20 received only one cycle of T-ICT. The 3-year actuarial overall survival (OS) was 49% and there was no OS difference according to the type of ICT (regimen or number of cycle) or the addition of concurrent CT (cisplatin, carboplatin, or cetuximab) to RT. In multivariate analysis (MVA), clinically involved lymph node (cN+), age more than 60 years, the absence of OR after ICT, and performance status of at least 1 predicted for a decreased OS, with hazard ratios (HR) of 2.8, 2.2, 2.1, and 2, respectively. The 3-year actuarial locoregional control (LRC) and distant control (DC) rates were 52 and 73%, respectively. In MVA, the absence of OR after ICT (HR: 3.2), cN+ (HR: 3), and age more than 60 years (HR: 1.7) were prognostic for a lower LRC whereas cN+ (HR: 4.2) and carboplatin-based T-ICT (HR: 2.9) were prognostic for a lower DC. The number of cycles (≤ 2) received during ICT was borderline significant for DC in the MVA (P=0.08). Among patients receiving less than or equal to three cycles of ICT, higher outcomes were observed in patients who received cisplatin-based T-ICT (vs. carboplatin-based T-ICT) or subsequent CRT (vs. RT). T-ICT in our experience, followed by RT or CRT, raises several questions on the role and type of induction, and the efficacy of CRT over RT. The role of RT or CRT following induction, although feasible in these advanced patients, awaits answers from randomized trials.

Squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx with subglottic extension: is larynx preservation possible?. Plattenepithelkarzinom des Larynx mit subglottischer Ausdehnung: ist ein Larynxerhalt möglich ?

PURPOSE: Squamous cell carcinoma of larynx with subglottic extension (sSCC) is a rare location described to carry a poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to analyze outcomes and feasibility of larynx preservation in sSCC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 1996 and 2012, 197 patients with sSCC were treated at our institution and included in the analysis. Stage III-IV tumors accounted for 76 %. Patients received surgery (62 %), radiotherapy (RT) (18 %), or induction chemotherapy (CT) (20 %) as front-line therapy. RESULTS: The 5-year actuarial overall survival (OS), locoregional control (LRC), and distant control rate were 59 % (95 % CI 51-68), 83 % (95 % CI 77-89), and 88 % (95 % CI 83-93), respectively, with a median follow-up of 54.4 months. There was no difference in OS and LRC according to front-line treatments or between primary subglottic cancer and glottosupraglottic cancers with subglottic extension. In the multivariate analysis, age > 60 years and positive N stage were the only predictors for OS (HR 2, 95 % CI 1.2-3.6; HR1.9, 95 % CI 1-3.5, respectively). A lower LRC was observed for T3 patients receiving a larynx preservation protocol as compared with those receiving a front-line surgery (HR 14.1, 95 % CI 2.5-136.7; p = 0.02); however, no difference of ultimate LRC was observed according to the first therapy when including T3 patients who underwent salvage laryngectomy (p = 0.6). In patients receiving a larynx preservation protocol, the 5-year larynx-preservation rate was 55 % (95 % CI 43-68), with 36 % in T3 patients. The 5-year larynx preservation rate was 81 % (95 % CI 65-96) and 35 % (95 % CI 20-51) for patients who received RT or induction CT as a front-line treatment, respectively. CONCLUSION: Outcomes of sSCC are comparable with other laryngeal cancers when managed with modern therapeutic options. Larynx-preservation protocols could be a suitable option in T1-T2 (RT or chemo-RT) and selected T3 sSCC patients (induction CT).