Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

A quasi-steady performance prediction model for dynamic characteristics of a volute pump

A performance prediction model generally applicable for volute-type centrifugal pumps has been extended to predict the dynamic characteristics of a pump during its normal starting and stopping periods. Experiments have been conducted on a volute pump with different valve openings to study the dynamic behaviour of the pump during normal start-up and stopping, when a small length of discharge pipeline is connected to the discharge flange of the pump. Such experiments have also been conducted when the test pump was part of a hydraulic system, an experimental rig, where it is pumping against three similar pumps, known as supply pumps, connected in series, with the supply pumps kept idle or running. Instantaneous rotational speed, flowrate, and delivery and suction pressures of the pump were recorded and it was observed in all the tested cases that the change of pump behaviour during the transient period was quasi-steady, which validates the quasi-steady approach presented in this paper. The nature of variation of parameters during the transients has been discussed. The model-predicted dynamic head-capacity curves agree well with the experimental data for almost all the tested cases.

Particle filters for structural system identification using multiple test and sensor data: A combined computational and experimental study

The problem of structural system identification when measurements originate from multiple tests and multiple sensors is considered. An offline solution to this problem using bootstrap particle filtering is proposed. The central idea of the proposed method is the introduction of a dummy independent variable that allows for simultaneous assimilation of multiple measurements in a sequential manner. The method can treat linear/nonlinear structural models and allows for measurements on strains and displacements under static/dynamic loads. Illustrative examples consider measurement data from numerical models and also from laboratory experiments. The results from the proposed method are compared with those from a Kalman filter-based approach and the superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of anvil supports and overhangs in dynamic analysis of three point bend testing

Optimum design of dynamic fracture test rigs demands a thorough appreciation of beam vibration under impact. Analyses invariably presume rigid anvils, and neglect overhang effects. The beam response predicted analytically and numerically in this paper highlights the significant role of anvil rigidity and beam overhangs on the impact dynamics of three point bend (3PB) specimens.

In-situ power monitoring scheme and its application in dynamic voltage and threshold scaling for digital CMOS integrated circuits

An in-situ power monitoring technique for Dynamic Voltage and Threshold scaling (DVTS) systems is proposed which measures total power consumed by load circuit using sleep transistor acting as power sensor. Design details of power monitor are examined using simulation framework in UMC 90nm CMOS process. Experimental results of test chip fabricated in AMS 0.35µm CMOS process are presented. The test chip has variable activity between 0.05 and 0.5 and has PMOS VTH control through nWell contact. Maximum resolution obtained from power monitor is 0.25mV. Overhead of power monitor in terms of its power consumption is 0.244 mW (2.2% of total power of load circuit). Lastly, power monitor is used to demonstrate closed loop DVTS system. DVTS algorithm shows 46.3% power savings using in-situ power monitor.

NanoLAB Triboprobe: Characterizing Dynamic Wear, Friction and Fatigue at the Nanoscale

In-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) has developed rapidly over the last decade. In particular, with the inclusion of scanning probes in TEM holders, allows both mechanical and electrical testing to be performed whilst simultaneously imaging the microstructure at high resolution. In-situ TEM nanoindentation and tensile experiments require only an axial displacement perpendicular to the test surface. However, here, through the development of a novel in-situ TEM triboprobe, other surface characterisation experiments are now possible, with the introduction of a fully programmable 3D positioning system. Programmable lateral displacement control allows scratch tests to be performed at high resolution with simultaneous imaging of the changing microstructure. With the addition of repeated cyclic movements, both nanoscale fatigue and friction experiments can also now be performed. We demonstrate a range of movement profiles for a variety of applications, in particular, lateral sliding wear. The developed NanoLAB TEM triboprobe also includes a new closed loop vision control system for intuitive control during positioning and alignment. It includes an automated online calibration to ensure that the fine piezotube is controlled accurately throughout any type of test. Both the 3D programmability and the closed loop vision feedback system are demonstrated here.

Scan cell reordering to minimize peak power during test cycle: A graph theoretic approach

Scan circuit is widely practiced DFT technology. The scan testing procedure consist of state initialization, test application, response capture and observation process. During the state initialization process the scan vectors are shifted into the scan cells and simultaneously the responses captured in last cycle are shifted out. During this shift operation the transitions that arise in the scan cells are propagated to the combinational circuit, which inturn create many more toggling activities in the combinational block and hence increases the dynamic power consumption. The dynamic power consumed during scan shift operation is much more higher than that of normal mode operation.

Dynamic Supply and Threshold Voltage Scaling for CMOS Digital Circuits Using In-Situ Power Monitor

A generalized power tracking algorithm that minimizes power consumption of digital circuits by dynamic control of supply voltage and the body bias is proposed. A direct power monitoring scheme is proposed that does not need any replica and hence can sense total power consumed by load circuit across process, voltage, and temperature corners. Design details and performance of power monitor and tracking algorithm are examined by a simulation framework developed using UMC 90-nm CMOS triple well process. The proposed algorithm with direct power monitor achieves a power savings of 42.2% for activity of 0.02 and 22.4% for activity of 0.04. Experimental results from test chip fabricated in AMS 350 nm process shows power savings of 46.3% and 65% for load circuit operating in super threshold and near sub-threshold region, respectively. Measured resolution of power monitor is around 0.25 mV and it has a power overhead of 2.2% of die power. Issues with loop convergence and design tradeoff for power monitor are also discussed in this paper.

Dynamic properties of sand from dry to fully saturated states

By using bender and extender elements test, the velocities of the primary and shear waves, V(P) and V(s) respectively, were measured for a sandy material by gradually varying the degree of saturation, S(r), between the dry and fully saturated states. The effect on the results of varying the relative density and effective confining pressure was also studied. The measurements clearly reveal that for a certain optimum S(r), which is around 0.7-0.9% for the chosen sand, the value of the shear modulus G reaches a maximum value, whereas the corresponding Poisson's ratio nu attains a minimum value. The values of the shear modulus corresponding to S(r) approximate to 0% and S(r) = 100% tend towards the same value. For values of Skempton's B parameter greater than 0.99, the values of V(P) and nu rise very sharply to those of water. The predictions from Biot's theory with respect to the variation of V(P) with S(r) match well with the measured experimental data.

Dynamic Supply and Threshold Voltage Scaling for CMOS Digital Circuits Using In-Situ Power Monitor

A generalized power tracking algorithm that minimizes power consumption of digital circuits by dynamic control of supply voltage and the body bias is proposed. A direct power monitoring scheme is proposed that does not need any replica and hence can sense total power consumed by load circuit across process, voltage, and temperature corners. Design details and performance of power monitor and tracking algorithm are examined by a simulation framework developed using UMC 90-nm CMOS triple well process. The proposed algorithm with direct power monitor achieves a power savings of 42.2% for activity of 0.02 and 22.4% for activity of 0.04. Experimental results from test chip fabricated in AMS 350 nm process shows power savings of 46.3% and 65% for load circuit operating in super threshold and near sub-threshold region, respectively. Measured resolution of power monitor is around 0.25 mV and it has a power overhead of 2.2% of die power. Issues with loop convergence and design tradeoff for power monitor are also discussed in this paper.

Performance of inherently compensated flat pad aerostatic bearings subject to dynamic perturbation forces

The importance of air bearing design is growing in engineering. As the trend to precision and ultra precision manufacture gains pace and the drive to higher quality and more reliable products continues, the advantages which can be gained from applying aerostatic bearings to machine tools, instrumentation and test rigs is becoming more apparent. The inlet restrictor design is significant for air bearings because it affects the static and dynamic performance of the air bearing. For instance pocketed orifice bearings give higher load capacity as compared to inherently compensated orifice type bearings, however inherently compensated orifices, also known as laminar flow restrictors are known to give highly stable air bearing systems (less prone to pneumatic hammer) as compared to pocketed orifice air bearing systems. However, they are not commonly used because of the difficulties encountered in manufacturing and assembly of the orifice designs. This paper aims to analyse the static and dynamic characteristics of inherently compensated orifice based flat pad air bearing system. Based on Reynolds equation and mass conservation equation for incompressible flow, the steady state characteristics are studied while the dynamic state characteristics are performed in a similar manner however, using the above equations for compressible flow. Steady state experiments were also performed for a single orifice air bearing and the results are compared to that obtained from theoretical studies. A technique to ease the assembly of orifices with the air bearing plate has also been discussed so as to make the manufacturing of the inherently compensated bearings more commercially viable. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhanced superplasticity for (alpha plus beta)-hot rolled Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy by means of dynamic globularization

Thermo-mechanically processed Ti-6Al-4V alloy, with (0.1 wt.%) and without boron addition, has been subjected to tensile test under superplastic deformation conditions (Temperature, T = 850 degrees C and initial strain rate, (epsilon) over dot = 3 x 10(-4) s(-1)). The boron added alloy exhibited higher elongation (similar to 430%) in comparison to the base alloy without boron (similar to 365%). Superior ductility of the boron added alloy has been attributed to an enhanced alpha/beta interfacial boundary sliding. This was caused by riotous dynamic globularization leading to the abundant presence of equiaxed primary alpha grains with refined sizes and narrow distribution in the deforming microstructure. Cavities do occur around TiB particles during deformation; the cavities are, however, extremely localized and do not cause macroscopic cracking. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microstructure Development, Nanomechanical, and Dynamic Compression Properties of Spark Plasma Sintered TiB2-Ti-Based Homogeneous and Bi-layered Composites

The growing threats due to increased use of small-caliber armor piercing projectiles demand the development of new light-weight body armor materials. In this context, TiB2 appears to be a promising ceramic material. However, poor sinterability and low fracture toughness remain two major issues for TiB2. In order to address these issues together, Ti as a sinter-aid is used to develop TiB2-(x wt pct Ti), (x = 10, 20) homogeneous composites and a bi-layered composite (BLC) with each layer having Ti content of 10 and 20 wt pct. The present study uniquely demonstrates the efficacy of two-stage spark plasma sintering route to develop dense TiB2-Ti composites with an excellent combination of nanoscale hardness (similar to 36 GPa) and indentation fracture toughness (similar to 12 MPa m(1/2)). In case of BLC, these properties are not compromised w.r.t. homogeneous composites, suggesting the retention of baseline material properties even in the bi-layer design due to optimal relief of residual stresses. The better indentation toughness of TiB2-(10 wt pct Ti) and TiB2-(20 wt pct Ti) composites can be attributed to the observed crack deflection/arrest, indicating better damage tolerance. Transmission electron microscope investigation reveals the presence of dense dislocation networks and deformation twins in alpha-Ti at the grain boundaries and triple pockets, surrounded by TiB2 grains. The dynamic strength of around 4 GPa has been measured using Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar tests in a reproducible manner at strain rates of the order of 600 s(-1). The damage progression under high strain rate has been investigated by acquiring real time images for the entire test duration using ultra-high speed imaging. An attempt has been made to establish microstructure-property correlation and a simple analysis based on Mohr-Coulomb theory is used to rationalize the measured strength properties.

Multithreaded Test Synthesis for Deadlock Detection

Designing and implementing thread-safe multithreaded libraries can be a daunting task as developers of these libraries need to ensure that their implementations are free from concurrency bugs, including deadlocks. The usual practice involves employing software testing and/or dynamic analysis to detect. deadlocks. Their effectiveness is dependent on well-designed multithreaded test cases. Unsurprisingly, developing multithreaded tests is significantly harder than developing sequential tests for obvious reasons. In this paper, we address the problem of automatically synthesizing multithreaded tests that can induce deadlocks. The key insight to our approach is that a subset of the properties observed when a deadlock manifests in a concurrent execution can also be observed in a single threaded execution. We design a novel, automatic, scalable and directed approach that identifies these properties and synthesizes a deadlock revealing multithreaded test. The input to our approach is the library implementation under consideration and the output is a set of deadlock revealing multithreaded tests. We have implemented our approach as part of a tool, named OMEN1. OMEN is able to synthesize multithreaded tests on many multithreaded Java libraries. Applying a dynamic deadlock detector on the execution of the synthesized tests results in the detection of a number of deadlocks, including 35 real deadlocks in classes documented as thread-safe. Moreover, our experimental results show that dynamic analysis on multithreaded tests that are either synthesized randomly or developed by third-party programmers are ineffective in detecting the deadlocks.