Civil conflict and voting behavior : evidence from Colombia

¿Cuáles son los efectos de la guerra sobre el comportamiento político? Colombia es un caso interesante en el que el conflicto y las elecciones coexisten y los grupos armados ilegales intencionalmente afectan los resultados electorales. Sin embargo, los grupos usan diferentes estrategias para alterar estos resultados. Este artículo argumenta que los efectos diferenciales de la violencia sobre los resultados electorales son el resultado de estrategias deliberadas de los grupos ilegales, que a su turno, son consecuencia de las condiciones militares que difieren entre ellos. Usando datos panel de las elecciones al Senado de 1994 a 2006 y una aproximación por variables instrumentales para resolver posibles problemas de endogenidad, este artículo muestra que la violencia guerrillera disminuye la participación electoral, mientras que la violencia paramilitar no tiene ningún efecto sobre la participación pero reduce la competencia electoral y beneficia a nuevos partidos no-tradicionales. Esto es consistente con la hipótesis de que la estrategia de la guerrilla es sabotear las elecciones, mientras que los paramiltares establecen alianzas con ciertos candidatos.

Australia, the United States and a 'China growing strong': managing conflict avoidance

How to deal with a rising China constitutes one of the most seminal challenges facing the ANZUS alliance since its inception a half a century ago. Australia must reconcile its geography and economic interests in Asia with its post-war strategic and historic cultural orientation towards the United States. It must succeed in this policy task without alienating either Beijing or Washington in the process. The extent to which this is achieved will shape Australia's national security posture for decades to come. Three specific components of the 'Sino-American-Australian' triangle are assessed here: the future of Taiwan, the American development of a National Missile Defence (NMD), and the interplay between Sino-American power balancing and multilateral security politics. The policy stakes for Australia and for the continued viability of ANZUS are high in all three policy areas as a new US Administration takes office in early 2001. The article concludes that Australia's best interest is served by applying deliberate modes of decisionmaking in its own relations with both China and the US and by facilitating consistent and systematic dialogue and consultations with both of those great powers on key strategic issues.

O papel da Organização das Nações Unidas em Angola

RESUMO: Angola tem sido ao longo dos tempos objecto de cobiça por parte de países estrangeiros por motivações diversas, que foram desde interesses coloniais – como aconteceu com Portugal, que durante séculos a colonizou, e da Holanda, que dominou Luanda entre 1641 e 1648 – ou por interesses hegemónicos, ideológicos e políticos – como sucedeu com os EUA e a URSS, mas também com a Republica Popular da China e Cuba – e até por interesses regionais – como foram os casos da África do Sul e dos contíguos Congo Belga, hoje Republica Democrática do Congo, e Zâmbia. No entanto, a todos estes interesses diversos não se pode excluir um que lhes é transversal: o interesse económico. De facto, os 1246700 km² de que Angola dispõe, aliados à sua excelente localização geográfica com uma extensa costa atlântica e a sua extraordinária riqueza em recursos naturais podem explicar este envolvimento estrangeiro na História de Angola. No que diz respeito ao objecto da Dissertação, o envolvimento da ONU nas questões relacionadas com Angola remonta à década de 50, ou seja, ao período colonial e muito antes da independência do país em 1975, devido à política descolonizadora saída da II Guerra Mundial. Além disso, a dinâmica que emergiu da II Guerra Mundial, rapidamente, reconfigurou o panorama político internacional em dois blocos: o ocidental liderado pelos EUA e o de Leste liderado pela URSS, que se envolveram numa Guerra Fria, polarização cujos efeitos se ligam de forma trágica à guerra em Angola, primeiro para a autodeterminação, e, depois, já num contexto de independência, num conflito armado que ultrapassou o plano interno. Os interesses dos EUA e da URSS, que começaram por ser antagónicos, deram lugar em 1989 com o fim da bipolaridade a uma cooperação mais aberta e uma abertura política em Angola rumo à paz e ao início da construção da democracia. Neste trabalho estuda-se o papel da ONU em Angola, quer no período de luta pela independência, quer depois, na busca da paz no sangrento conflito – nem sempre civil – que mesmo antes da data da independência, a 11 de Novembro de 1975, e até Fevereiro de 2002, dilacerou o país. Procura-se, igualmente, analisar o contributo da ONU na consolidação das instituições e na construção de um regime democrático em Angola. ABSTRACT: Angola has been along time subject to the greed of several foreign countries for many reasons and motivations which go from colonial interests - that is the cases of, Portugal which for centuries colonized it, and Netherlands under whose administration had been Luanda between 1641 and 1648 - or for hegemonic, ideological and political interests - as it happened in regard to USA and USSR, but also People‟s Republic of China, Cuba, - and even for regional interests - regarding South Africa Republic, and the neighbouring countries, Democratic Republic of Congo (ancient Republic of the Congo “Leopoldville”), and the Republic of Zambia. On the other hand to these interests we may join another which is transversal to all of them: economic interest. Effectively, Angola‟s 481,351 square miles (1,246,700 Km2) estimated area, combined with its excellent geographical location with a lengthy Atlantic coast, its extraordinary richness in natural resources may well explain this foreign participation in its Political History. Concerning the objective of this work, the UN has been involved in matters regarding Angola since the decade of 50 of the last century, during the colonial period, long before the independence of the country in 1975, due to the decolonization policy emerged from the Second World War. Furthermore, after the Second World War, international environment has changed, transforming quickly the world into two main blocs, the West with the leadership of the USA and the East with the leadership of USSR which went into a Cold War. The effects of this polarization reached tragically Angola, early in the fight for self-determination, and went on later after independence in an armed conflict, which has overcome the internal dimension. The USA and USSR interests, at the beginning being antagonistic had become by 1989, with the end of bipolarity, more cooperative, leading Angola to a political reform towards peace and beginning the construction of democracy. In this academic work it‟s studied the UNO role in Angola since the fight for self-determination early in the sixties of last century, and later in the search for peace during the bloody - and not always civil – war conflict which very before independence date in 11th November 1975, and as long as 2002, divided the country. Additionally, this work aims to understand the UNO contribution to consolidate institutions and to promote democracy in Angola.

Informação e propaganda na II Guerra Mundial : o papel da cultura popular urbana americana, os seus filmes e as suas canções

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências da Comunicação, 24 de Novembro de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.

Welcome to the new world disorder: conflict and transformation in Ian McEwan’s saturday

Ian McEwan‘s novel Saturday deals with the complex issues of conflict and transformation in the age of terrorism. The plot presents one internal dilemma and several interpersonal altercations that occur within a mere twenty-four hours: a) Perowne (the protagonist) vs. himself, in face of his ambivalent thoughts regarding British military participation in the war in the Middle East; b) The protagonist vs. Baxter, a ruffian from East End, in the context of a car accident; c) Perowne vs. a fellow anaesthetist, Jay Strauss, during a squash game; d) Perowne‘s daughter, Daisy vs. her grandfather, John Grammaticus, both poets and rivals; e) Perowne‘s family vs. Baxter, who intrudes the protagonist‘s house. In this paper, I exemplify, analyse and discuss how: a) Understanding the causes of what we call evil constitutes an important step towards mutual understanding; b) Both science and arts (which Perowne considers, at first, irrelevant) are important elements in the process of transformation; c) Both personal and interpersonal conflicts are intrinsic to human nature — but they also propitiate healthy changes in behaviour and opinion, through reflection. In order to do so, I resort to Saturday, and to the work of several specialists in the field of conflict management.

Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts

We investigate the causes of a conflict by adding ambient climate factors to the existing bundle of most significant variables. It turns out that – controlling for possible associations – temperature could actually induce a conflict. We emphasise that temperature could not be a dominant reason in starting a conflict; however, it could escalate the chances when other factors are present. This paper references some of the related psychological studies to support this claim. We also show that grievance factors could actually be rightfully effective in starting an internal conflict alongside greed based reasons. In the end, we believe that it could be informative to study ambient factors more often in economics.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Conflict prevention and decentralized governance: some remarks about the state of the art in theory and practice

Is there a link between decentralized governance and conflict prevention? This article tries to answer the question by presenting the state of the art of the intersection of both concepts. Provided that social conflict is inevitable and given the appearance of new threats and types of violence, as well as new demands for security based on people (human security), our societies should focus on promoting peaceful changes. Through an extensive analysis of the existing literature and the study of several cases, this paper suggests that decentralized governance can contribute to these efforts by transforming conflicts, bringing about power-sharing and inclusion incentives of minority groups. Albeit the complexity of assessing its impact on conflict prevention, it can be contended that decentralized governance might have very positive effects on the reduction of causes that bring about conflicts due to its ability to foster the creation of war/violence preventors. More specifically, this paper argues that decentralization can have a positive impact on the so-called triggers and accelerators (short- and medium-term causes).

Conflict, Peace and Security in Africa: an Assessment and New Questions After 50 Years of African Independence

Since the independence processes in the African continent, armed conflicts, peace and security have raised concern and attention both at the domestic level and at the international scale. In recent years, all aspects have undergone significant changes which have given rise to intense debate. The end of some historical conflicts has taken place in a context of slight decrease in the number of armed conflicts and the consolidation of post-conflict reconstruction processes. Moreover, African regional organizations have staged an increasingly more active internal shift in matters related to peace and security, encouraged by the idea of promoting “African solutions to African problems”. This new scenario, has been accompanied by new uncertainties at the security level and major challenges at the operational level, especially for the African Union. This article aims to ascertain the state of affairs on all these issues and raise some key questions to consider.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

A survey on the enlistment of pharmacists in a hospital battalion of the Swiss Armed Forces

Background: Pharmacists, mainly militiamen, are incorporated in the Swiss Armed Forces, for instance in hospital battalions to supply drugs and medical devices, as well as to coordinate hygiene service. Presently, their duties are only very globally defined. Aims: The objective of this survey was to investigate the tasks that were actually assumed by the military pharmacy of the 2nd Hospital Battalion. Methods: Two types of commitments, offering military and civilian interest's convergence, were considered between 2005 and 2011: (1) army camps for the disabled and (2) operations and supports provided to two nursing homes. While relieving the civil caregiver usually involved with disabled or elderly people, such missions offer indeed the possibility to the army medical service to train its care and logistical processes with real patients, even in the absence of any sanitary crisis or war in the country. Results: Two basis activities have been assumed: (1) centralized supply of drugs and medical devices and (2) coordination of hygiene monitoring and disinfection operations. New tasks were also performed: (3) support to the management of ward-based pharmacies, (4) pillboxes preparation, (5) medication review and (6) selective participation in clinical rounds. The last two were integrated in an interdisciplinary education process. Conclusions: Results shows that, apart from traditional duties, new clinical-oriented activities have been evenly developed and assumed by militia pharmacists. They call thus for a possible renewed definition of the tasks of military hospital pharmacists and of their related military education. A wider study in all hospital battalions is yet mandatory.

Companies in Conflict Situations: Advancing the Research Agenda. Seminar proceedings. Barcelona, october 2011

Seminar proceedings about the Seminar “Companies in Confict Situations”, organized by ICIP, with the aim of reflecting on the causes, the dynamics and the consequences of the participation of companies in armed conflicts. Over thirty international experts will be participating in the conferences to analyze the role and responsibilities of companies in connection with the international arms market (especially regarding small arms, light weapons and conventional weapons), the provision of military and security services, and the exploitation of, and trade in, natural resources.

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.