Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Unraveling the complex network of cuticular structure and function.

A hydrophobic cuticle is deposited at the outermost extracellular matrix of the epidermis in primary tissues of terrestrial plants. Besides forming a protective shield against the environment, the cuticle is potentially involved in several developmental processes during plant growth. A high degree of variation in cuticle composition and structure exists between different plant species and tissues. Lots of progress has been made recently in understanding the different steps of biosynthesis, transport, and deposition of cuticular components. However, the molecular mechanisms that underlie cuticular function remain largely elusive.

Brain network analysis of patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy

Patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (TLE) suffer from widespread subtle white matter abnormalities and abnormal functional connectivity extending beyond the affected lobe, as revealed by Diffusion Tensor MR Imaging, volumetric and functional MRI studies. Diffusion Spectrum Imaging (DSI) is a diffusion imaging technique with high angular resolution for improving the mapping of white matter pathways. In this study, we used DSI, connectivity matrices and topological measures to investigate how the alteration in structural connectivity influences whole brain structural networks. Eleven patients with right-sided TLE and hippocampal sclerosis and 18 controls underwent our DSI protocol at 3T. The cortical and subcortical grey matters were parcellated into 86 regions of interest and the connectivity between every region pair was estimated using global tractography and a connectivity matrix (the adjacency matrix of the structural network). We then compared the networks of patients and controls using topological measures. In patients, we found a higher characteristic path length and a lower clustering coefficient compared to controls. Local measures at node level of the clustering and efficiency showed a significant difference after a multiple comparison correction (Bonferroni). These significant nodes were located within as well outside the temporal lobe, and the localisation of most of them was consistent with regions known to be part of epileptic networks in TLE. Our results show altered connectivity patterns that are concordant with the mapping of functional epileptic networks in patients with TLE. Further studies are needed to establish the relevance of these findings for the propagation of epileptic activity, cognitive deficits in medial TLE and outcome of epilepsy surgery in individual patients.

Sequential estimation of time-varying multipath channel for MIMO-OFDM systems

In this paper, we introduce a pilot-aided multipath channel estimator for Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems. Typical estimation algorithms assume the number of multipath components and delays to be known and constant, while theiramplitudes may vary in time. In this work, we focus on the more realistic assumption that also the number of channel taps is unknown and time-varying. The estimation problem arising from this assumption is solved using Random Set Theory (RST), which is a probability theory of finite sets. Due to the lack of a closed form of the optimal filter, a Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter (RBPF) implementation of the channel estimator is derived. Simulation results demonstrate the estimator effectiveness.

Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structuralVARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedureallows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintainsthe multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used toestimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We studythe transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with thoseobtained with traditional methods.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

The evolution of recent research on Catalan literature through the production of PhD theses: a bibliometric and social network analysis

Introduction. This paper studies the situation of research on Catalan literature between 1976 and 2003 by carrying out a bibliometric and social network analysis of PhD theses defended in Spain. It has a dual aim: to present interesting results for the discipline and to demonstrate the methodological efficacy of scientometric tools in the humanities, a field in which they are often neglected due to the difficulty of gathering data. Method. The analysis was performed on 151 records obtained from the TESEO database of PhD theses. The quantitative estimates include the use of the UCINET and Pajek software packages. Authority control was performed on the records. Analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the sample and the distribution of responses to each question. Sex differences on key questions were analysed using the Chi-squared test. Results. The value of the figures obtained is demonstrated. The information obtained on the topic and the periods studied in the theses, and on the actors involved (doctoral students, thesis supervisors and members of defence committees), provide important insights into the mechanisms of humanities disciplines. The main research tendencies of Catalan literature are identified. It is observed that the composition of members of the thesis defence committees follows Lotka's Law. Conclusions. Bibliometric analysis and social network analysis may be especially useful in the humanities and in other fields which are lacking in scientometric data in comparison with the experimental sciences.

Network characteristics of film tourism websites in Catalonia: an application of network analysis in tourism

This master thesis presents a research on the analysis of film tourism stakeholders in Catalonia applying the network analysis approach. The research aims to provide an analysis of the relations between local tourism stakeholders with local film offices through their websites. Therefore, the development of the present work involved the review of literature on the themes of film tourism and network analysis. Then the main stakeholders of film and tourism of Catalonia were identified and their websites analyzed. The measures indicators for network analysis such as centrality, closeness and betweenness degree have been applied on the analysis of the websites to determine the extent of the relations of film and tourism stakeholders in Catalonia. Results and conclusions are presented on the referred sections

Time-Varying Benefits of International Diversification for Finnish Investor: Country-Specific Strategy Concentrating on Emerging Markets

The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the Finnish investors’ country-specific strategy concentrating on emerging markets provides diversification benefits. We also analyze whether the benefits of international diversification has been diminished after periods of high volatility caused by different market crisis. The objective is investigated with three methods: Correlation coefficients, rolling correlations added with OLS trend-lines and Box’s M statistic. All the empirical tests are analyzed and calculated with logarithmic returns of weekly time series data from Friday closing values between January 1995 and December 2007. The number of weekly observations is 678. The data type is total return indices of different countries. Data is collected from DataStream and provided by Datastream Financial. Countries investigated are Finland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The current data is quoted both in U.S. Dollars and local currencies. The empirical results of this thesis show that the correlation coefficients are time-varying across Finland and 12 emerging market countries. Although the correlations have risen from 1995 to 2007, there can be found sub-periods where the correlation has declined from earlier period. The results also indicate that a Finnish investor constructing a portfolio of emerging market countries cannot rely on the correlation coefficients estimated from historical data because of the instability of correlation matrices.

Webometric network analysis : mapping cooperation and geopolitical connections between local government administration on the web

Webben är en enorm källa för information. Innehållet på webbsidorna är en synlig typ av information, men webben innehåller även information av en annan typ, en mera gömd typ i form av sambanden och nätverken som hyperlänkarna skapar mellan webbsajterna och –sidorna som de kopplar ihop. Forskningsområdet webometri ämnar, bland annat, att skapa ny kunskap ur denna gömda information som finns inbyggt i hyperlänkarna samt att skapa förståelse för hurudana fenomen och förhållanden utanför webben kan finnas representerade i hyperlänkarna. Målet med denna forskning var att öka förståelse för användningen av hyperlänkar på webben och speciellt kommunernas användning av hyperlänkar. Denna forskning undersökte hur kommunerna i Egentliga Finland skapade och mottog hyperlänkar samt hurudana nätverk formades av dessa hyperlänkar. Forskningen kartlade nätverk av direkta länkar mellan kommunerna och av samlänkar till och från kommunerna och undersökte ifall dessa nätverk kunde användas för att undersöka geopolitiska förhållanden och samarbete mellan kommunerna i Egentliga Finland. De övergripande forskningsfrågorna som har besvarats i denna forskning är: 1) Från ett webometriskt perspektiv, hur använder kommunerna i Egentliga Finland webben? 2) Kan hyperlänkar (direkta länkar och samlänkar) användas för att kartlägga geopolitiska förhållanden och samarbete mellan kommuner? 3) Vilka är de viktigaste motiveringarna för att skapa länkar mellan, till och från kommunernas webbsajter? Denna forskning kom till ovanligt tydliga resultat för en webometrisk forskning, både när det gäller upptäckta geografiska faktorer som påverkar hyperlänkningarna och de klassificerade motivationerna för att skapa länkarna. Resultaten visade att de direkta hyperlänkarna mellan kommunerna kan användas för att kartlägga geopolitiska förhållanden och samarbete mellan kommunerna för att de direkta länkarna var motiverade av officiella orsaker och de var klart påverkade av distansen mellan kommunerna och av de ekonomiska regionerna. Samlänkningarna in till kommunerna visade sig fungera som ett mått för geografisk likhet mellan kommunerna, medan samlänkningarna ut från kommunerna visade potential för att kunna användas till för att kartlägga kommunernas gemensamma intressen. Forskningen kontribuerade även till utvecklandet av forskningsområdet webometri. En del av de viktigaste kontributionerna av denna forskning var utvecklandet av nya metoder för webometrisk forskning samt att öka kunskap om hur existerande metoder från nätverksanalys kan användas effektivt för webometrisk forskning. Resultaten från denna forskning och de utvecklade metoderna kan användas för snabba kartläggningar av diverse förhållanden mellan olika organisationer och företag genom att använda information gratis tillgängligt på webben.

Harvesting and wood transport planning with SNAP III program (Scheduling and Network Analysis Program) in a pine plantation in Southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to verify the potential of SNAP III (Scheduling and Network Analysis Program) as a support tool for harvesting and wood transport planning in Brazil harvesting subsystem definition and establishment of a compatible route were assessed. Initially, machine operational and production costs were determined in seven subsystems for the study area, and quality indexes, construction and maintenance costs of forest roads were obtained and used as SNAP III program input data. The results showed, that three categories of forest road occurrence were observed in the study area: main, secondary and tertiary which, based on quality index, allowed a medium vehicle speed of about 41, 30 and 24 km/hours and a construction cost of about US$ 5,084.30, US$ 2,275.28 and US$ 1,650.00/km, respectively. The SNAP III program used as a support tool for the planning, was found to have a high potential tool in the harvesting and wood transport planning. The program was capable of defining efficiently, the harvesting subsystem on technical and economical basis, the best wood transport route and the forest road to be used in each period of the horizon planning.

Power-line-communication-based data transmission concept for an LVDC electricity distribution network – Analysis and implementation

Communications play a key role in modern smart grids. New functionalities that make the grids ‘smart’ require the communication network to function properly. Data transmission between intelligent electric devices (IEDs) in the rectifier and the customer-end inverters (CEIs) used for power conversion is also required in the smart grid concept of the low-voltage direct current (LVDC) distribution network. Smart grid applications, such as smart metering, demand side management (DSM), and grid protection applied with communications are all installed in the LVDC system. Thus, besides remote connection to the databases of the grid operators, a local communication network in the LVDC network is needed. One solution applied to implement the communication medium in power distribution grids is power line communication (PLC). There are power cables in the distribution grids, and hence, they may be applied as a communication channel for the distribution-level data. This doctoral thesis proposes an IP-based high-frequency (HF) band PLC data transmission concept for the LVDC network. A general method to implement the Ethernet-based PLC concept between the public distribution rectifier and the customerend inverters in the LVDC grid is introduced. Low-voltage cables are studied as the communication channel in the frequency band of 100 kHz–30 MHz. The communication channel characteristics and the noise in the channel are described. All individual components in the channel are presented in detail, and a channel model, comprising models for each channel component is developed and verified by measurements. The channel noise is also studied by measurements. Theoretical signalto- noise ratio (SNR) and channel capacity analyses and practical data transmission tests are carried out to evaluate the applicability of the PLC concept against the requirements set by the smart grid applications in the LVDC system. The main results concerning the applicability of the PLC concept and its limitations are presented, and suggestion for future research proposed.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Using Network Analysis to Understand and Advance Falls Prevention Services and Programs

The purpose of this study was to understand referral linkages that exist among falls prevention agencies in a southern Ontario region using network analysis theory. This was a single case study which included fifteen individual interviews. The data was analyzed through the constant comparative approach. Ten themes emerged and are classified into internal and external factors. Themes associated with internal factors are: 1) health professionals initiating services; 2) communication strategies; 3) formal partnerships; 4) trust; 5) program awareness; and 6) referral policies. Themes associated with external factors are: 1) client characteristics; 2) primary and community care collaboration; 3) networking; and 4) funding. Recommendations to improve the referral pathway are: 1) electronic database; 2) electronic referral forms; 3) educating office staff; and 4) education days. This study outlined the benefit of using network analysis to understand referral pathways and the importance of implementing strategies that will improve falls prevention referral pathways.