A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Avaliação da aterosclerose subclínica em portadores de HDL-colesterol marcadamente elevado

O HDL-c é um fator de risco cardiovascular negativo e sua concentração plasmática apresenta relação inversa com a incidência de eventos cardiovasculares. Entretanto, as evidências relativas ao grupo de indivíduos com níveis de HDL-c acima do percentil 95 da população geral ainda são escassas e o impacto da hiperalfalipoproteinemia (HALP) sobre o risco cardiovascular continua representando motivo de controvérsia na literatura médica. Alguns estudos em populações específicas associam a HALP a aumento do risco cardiovascular. Ao mesmo tempo, outros estudos identificaram populações de indivíduos hipoalfalipoproteinêmicos com marcada longevidade. Assim, demonstrou-se aparente dissociação entre níveis de HDL-c e risco cardiovascular em determinadas populações, reconduzível a aspectos disfuncionais da HDL. O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificar o papel da HALP na determinação do risco cardiovascular; comparar a prevalência de doença cardiovascular subclínica, avaliada por meio da quantificação ultrassonográfica da Espessura Íntimo-Medial Carotídea (EIMC), entre portadores de HDL-c >= 90mg/dL (grupo HALP) e portadores de concentrações de HDL-c atualmente consideradas normais (entre 40 e 50mg/dL para os homens e entre 50 e 60mg/dL para as mulheres); e avaliar características e função da HDL em portadores de HALP por meio do estudo de sua composição, de sua capacidade de efluxo de colesterol, e de sua atividade anti-inflamatória e antioxidante, correlacionando estas características com a presença de doença cardiovascular subclínica avaliada por meio da determinação da EIMC, da Velocidade de Onda de Pulso (VOP) e da presença de Calcificação Arterial Coronariana (CAC) avaliada pela TCMD. Para responder estas perguntas, o presente estudo foi articulado em dois braços: Braço 1: Análise da coorte do estudo ELSA com o objetivo de determinar a prevalência de HALP em uma população geral; definir o perfil demográfico, antropométrico e metabólico dos portadores de HALP; e comparar a prevalência de doença vascular subclínica deste grupo com controles da mesma coorte com níveis normais de HDL-colesterol. Braço 2: Recrutamento de 80 voluntários hígidos e portadores de HALP para avaliação da correlação entre presença de doença vascular subclínica, e aspectos estruturais e funcionais da HDL. Em seus dois braços, o estudo levou a quatro conclusões principais: 1) Níveis marcadamente elevados de HDL-c estão associados a menor espessura íntimo-medial carotídea quando comparados a níveis de HDL-c considerados normais pelas diretrizes vigentes. Embora portadores do fenótipo HALP apresentem, como grupo, um perfil metabólico mais favorável que o encontrado em indivíduos com HDL-c normal, a associação entre EIMC e HALP foi independente dos fatores de risco tradicionais, indicando que a menor prevalência destes últimos em portadores de HDL-c marcadamente elevado justifica apenas parcialmente a menor prevalência de doença vascular subclínica neste grupo; 2) Embora a HALP se apresente como um fenótipo ateroprotetor, há indivíduos com níveis marcadamente elevados de HDL-c que evoluem com doença cardiovascular, clínica ou subclínica. Neste contexto, nossos resultados indicam correlação entre os três métodos avaliados para estudar doença vascular subclínica em portadores de HALP: EIMC, VOP e CAC; 3) Os fatores de risco tradicionais continuam exercendo seu peso na determinação do risco cardiovascular em portadores de HALP. Idade, tabagismo, hipertensão arterial, hipertrigliceridemia e altos níveis de LDL-c apresentaram associação estatisticamente significativa com a presença de doença vascular subclínica no grupo estudado; 4) A avaliação da composição e da função da HDL em portadores de HALP pode permitir identificar indivíduos especificamente mais suscetíveis à aterosclerose. Nossos resultados indicam que, em particular, a atividade anti-inflamatória da HDL, avaliada pela capacidade de inibição da produção de IL-6; o efluxo de colesterol e a capacidade de transferência de triglicérides apresentaram associação independente com menor espessura íntimo-medial carotídea em portadores de HALP, enquanto níveis mais altos de Apo A-IV se associaram a maior grau de doença cardiovascular subclínica

The cognitive mobilization index: crises and political generations

This article shows how the cognitive mobilization index, designed for use in observing potential political participation, can be used as an indicator of the political climate that a particular society is going through. Following a discussion of the theoretical elaborations (and their working definitions) of the concept of cognitive mobilization, a longitudinal study of various European countries is used to consider the question of how political crises influence cognitive mobilization indexes and what effects they have on the political socialization process among the youngest cohorts.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Entry characteristics and academic performance of students in a master of pharmacy degree program in the United Kingdom

Objective. Evaluate the characteristics of a cohort of Master of Pharmacy (MPharm) students upon entry and examine any associations between entry qualifications, type of school attended, socioeconomic deprivation, age and academic performance in the MPharm programme. Methods. A retrospective cohort analysis of data recorded on Aston University’s central database for each individual exiting the MPharm programme during the five year period 2005-6 – 2009-10 (n=644). Results. Entrants were disproportionately drawn from socioeconomically deprived areas and independent (private) schools. Achievement prior to admission was related to the type of school attended but not to deprivation. Performance on the programme was not related to type of school or deprivation but was strongly correlated with prior achievements. Conclusions. Prior achievement is the most important predictor of performance on the MPharm programme but the superior prior achievement of independent school pupils is not seen at the point of graduation. This may have implications for admissions policies.

Patient Characteristics Associated with Differences in Admission Frequency for Diabetic Ketoacidosis in U.S. Children’s Hospitals

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Studies on Mahshahr Creeks macrobenthos with emphasis on their importance in fish feeding

To study the macrobenthic community at Mahshahr creek four Creeks namely Bihad, Doragh, Ghazaleh and Ghanam were chosen. Sampling was conducted on bimonthly basis and carried out from August 1996 to June 1997, 216 sediment samples were collected from 12 stations using 0.1 m^2 Van Veen Grab, The stations were located at the mouth, middle and the end of each Creek. In situ measurements of temperature pH, DO and salinity were done using different sensors. The samples for the measurements of TOM, grain size were collected and analysed in vitro. The results indicate spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the structure of macro faunal assemblages of the creeks. A total of 12 macrofaunal groups were identified within the study area. Amphipods were the most dominant group (43%) followed by polychaetes (42%), copepods (3.5%), tanaids (3.1%) and other groups (8.4%). The range for the numerical abundance of macrobenthos was between 12583 to 3648 individual per m2 and the variation was done to different bottom texture the variable environment conditions governing the different parts of each creek as well as within creeks. Application of diversity indices (Shannon H and Simpson indices) on the dominant macrobenthic assemblages (crustaceans & polychaetes) was varied between 1 to 2.5 being higher in Bihad and Ghanarn and much reduced Shannon H index or a higher Simpson in Ghazaleh. Probably brought about activities in this creek. Gut content analysis of four species of fish showed that the main food items consist of Crab, Shrimps and other crustacean species, The secondary production of macrobenthic fauna and hence a fish production were assessed. To do this first the production of most dominant species Apseudes sp. was computed through Cohort analysis. The total macrobenthic production was estimated and from this fish production was computed. The macrobenthic and fish secondary productions were 24300 tons/year) and 24300 (tons/year) respectively. These values were lower than those with similar areas in the Indian Ocean.

Evaluación del desempeño pronóstico de dos puntajes de predicción de mortalidad a siete días en pacientes adultos oncológicos críticamente enfermos admitidos a una unidad de cuidados intensivos en Bogotá

Introducción Los sistemas de puntuación para predicción se han desarrollado para medir la severidad de la enfermedad y el pronóstico de los pacientes en la unidad de cuidados intensivos. Estas medidas son útiles para la toma de decisiones clínicas, la estandarización de la investigación, y la comparación de la calidad de la atención al paciente crítico. Materiales y métodos Estudio de tipo observacional analítico de cohorte en el que reviso las historias clínicas de 283 pacientes oncológicos admitidos a la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) durante enero de 2014 a enero de 2016 y a quienes se les estimo la probabilidad de mortalidad con los puntajes pronósticos APACHE IV y MPM II, se realizó regresión logística con las variables predictoras con las que se derivaron cada uno de los modelos es sus estudios originales y se determinó la calibración, la discriminación y se calcularon los criterios de información Akaike AIC y Bayesiano BIC. Resultados En la evaluación de desempeño de los puntajes pronósticos APACHE IV mostro mayor capacidad de predicción (AUC = 0,95) en comparación con MPM II (AUC = 0,78), los dos modelos mostraron calibración adecuada con estadístico de Hosmer y Lemeshow para APACHE IV (p = 0,39) y para MPM II (p = 0,99). El ∆ BIC es de 2,9 que muestra evidencia positiva en contra de APACHE IV. Se reporta el estadístico AIC siendo menor para APACHE IV lo que indica que es el modelo con mejor ajuste a los datos. Conclusiones APACHE IV tiene un buen desempeño en la predicción de mortalidad de pacientes críticamente enfermos, incluyendo pacientes oncológicos. Por lo tanto se trata de una herramienta útil para el clínico en su labor diaria, al permitirle distinguir los pacientes con alta probabilidad de mortalidad.

A cross-sectional analysis of patterns of obesity in a cohort of working nurses and midwives in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom

Objective The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of overweight and obesity and the association with demographic, reproductive work variables in a representative cohort of working nurses and midwives. Design A cross sectional study of self reported survey data. Settings Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Methods Measurement outcomes included BMI categories, demographic (age, gender, marital status, ethnicity), reproductive (parity, number of births, mother's age at first birth, birth type and menopausal status) and workforce (registration council, employment type and principal specialty) variables. Participants 4996 respondents to the Nurses and Midwives e-Cohort study who were currently registered and working in nursing or midwifery in Australia (n=3144), New Zealand (n=778) or the United Kingdom (n=1074). Results Amongst the sample 61.87% were outside the healthy weight range and across all three jurisdictions the prevalence of obesity in nurses and midwives exceeded rates in the source populations by 1.73% up to 3.74%. Being overweight or obese was significantly associated with increasing age (35–44 yrs aOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.41–2.08; 45–55 yrs aOR 1.90, 95%CI 1.56–2.31; 55–64 aOR 2.22, 95% CI 1.71–2.88), and male gender (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.15–1.87). Primiparous nurses and midwives were more likely to be overweight or obese (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.06–1.76) as were those who had reached menopause (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.11–1.69). Nurses and midwives in part-time or casual employment had significantly reduced risk of being overweight or obese, (aOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70–0.94 and aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59–0.96 respectively), whilst working in aged carried increased risk (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.04–1.80). Conclusion Nurses and midwives in this study have higher prevalence of obesity and overweight than the general population and those who are older, male, or female primiparous and menopausal have significantly higher risk of overweight or obesity as do those working fulltime, or in aged care. The consequences of overweight and obesity in this occupational group may impact on their workforce participation, their management of overweight and obese patients in their care as well as influencing their individual health behaviours and risks of occupational injury and chronic disease.

Analysis of 3 common polymorphisms in the KCNK18 gene in an Australian migraine case-control cohort

Migraine is a common neurological disorder characterised by temporary disabling attacks of severe head pain and associated disturbances. There is significant evidence to suggest a genetic aetiology to the disease however few causal mutations have been conclusively linked to the migraine subtypes Migraine with (MA) or without Aura (MO). The Potassium Channel, Subfamily K, member 18 (KCNK18) gene, coding the potassium channel TRESK, is the first gene in which a rare mutation resulting in a non-functional truncated protein has been identified and causally linked to MA in a multigenerational family. In this study, three common polymorphisms in the KCNK18 gene were analysed for genetic variation in an Australian case-control migraine population consisting of 340 migraine cases and 345 controls. No association was observed for the polymorphisms examined with the migraine phenotype or with any haplotypes across the gene. Therefore even though the KCNK18 gene is the only gene to be causally linked to MA our studies indicate that common genetic variation in the gene is not a contributor to MA.

Heritability analysis of surface-based cortical thickness estimation on a large twin cohort

The aim of this paper is to assess the heritability of cerebral cortex, based on measurements of grey matter (GM) thickness derived from structural MR images (sMRI). With data acquired from a large twin cohort (328 subjects), an automated method was used to estimate the cortical thickness, and EM-ICP surface registration algorithm was used to establish the correspondence of cortex across the population. An ACE model was then employed to compute the heritability of cortical thickness. Heritable cortical thickness measures various cortical regions, especially in frontal and parietal lobes, such as bilateral postcentral gyri, superior occipital gyri, superior parietal gyri, precuneus, the orbital part of the right frontal gyrus, right medial superior frontal gyrus, right middle occipital gyrus, right paracentral lobule, left precentral gyrus, and left dorsolateral superior frontal gyrus.

The Effects of Social Class and Ethnicity on Gender Differences in GCSE Attainment: A Secondary Analysis of the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales 1997-2001

This article is based upon a secondary analysis of the Youth Cohort Study of England and Wales 1998 and examines the effects of social class and ethnicity on gender differences in GCSE attainment for those who left school in 1997 (n = 14,662). The article shows that both social class and ethnicity exert a far greater influence on the GCSE performance of boys and girls than gender. Moreover, the article also shows that an interaction effect is present between social class and gender and also between ethnicity and gender in relation to their impact upon GCSE attainment. More specifically, the findings suggest that a strong correlation exists such that the lower the overall levels of educational attainment for any group (whether that group is defined in terms of social class or ethnicity), the higher the gender differences that exist between those within that group.