Estimating and Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates:US and Colombia Analysis

In this paper we use the most representative models that exist in the literature on term structure of interest rates. In particular, we explore affine one factor models and polynomial-type approximations such as Nelson and Siegel. Our empirical application considers monthly data of USA and Colombia for estimation and forecasting. We find that affine models do not provide adequate performance either in-sample or out-of-sample. On the contrary, parsimonious models such as Nelson and Siegel have adequate results in-sample, however out-of-sample they are not able to systematically improve upon random walk base forecast.

Longitudinal familial analysis of blood pressure involving parametric (co)variance functions

Abstract Background For analyzing longitudinal familial data we adopted a log-linear form to incorporate heterogeneity in genetic variance components over the time, and additionally a serial correlation term in the genetic effects at different levels of ages. Due to the availability of multiple measures on the same individual, we permitted environmental correlations that may change across time. Results Systolic blood pressure from family members from the first and second cohort was used in the current analysis. Measures of subjects receiving hypertension treatment were set as censored values and they were corrected. An initial check of the variance and covariance functions proposed for analyzing longitudinal familial data, using empirical semi-variogram plots, indicated that the observed trait dispersion pattern follows the assumptions adopted. Conclusion The corrections for censored phenotypes based on ordinary linear models may be an appropriate simple model to correct the data, ensuring that the original variability in the data was retained. In addition, empirical semi-variogram plots are useful for diagnosis of the (co)variance model adopted.

Explaining process and performance in the co-production of knowledge:a comparative analysis of collaborative research projects

Despite considerable and growing interest in the subject of academic researchers and practising managers jointly generating knowledge (which we term ‘co-production’), our searches of management literature revealed few articles based on primary data or multiple cases. Given the increasing commitment to co-production by academics, managers and those funding research, it seems important to strengthen the evidence base about practice and performance in co-production. Literature on collaborative research was reviewed to develop a framework to structure the analysis of this data and relate findings to the limited body of prior research on collaborative research practice and performance. This paper presents empirical data from four completed, large scale co-production projects. Despite major differences between the cases, we find that the key success factors and the indicators of performances are remarkably similar. We demonstrate many, complex influences between factors, between outcomes, and between factors and outcomes, and discuss the features that are distinctive to co-production. Our empirical findings are broadly consonant with prior literature, but go further in trying to understand success factors’ consequences for performance. A second contribution of this paper is the development of a conceptually and methodologically rigorous process for investigating collaborative research, linking process and performance. The paper closes with discussion of the study’s limitations and opportunities for further research.

Options to advance co-ordination and analysis of climate data in Europe

Systematic, high-quality observations of the atmosphere, oceans and terrestrial environments are required to improve understanding of climate characteristics and the consequences of climate change. The overall aim of this report is to carry out a comparative assessment of approaches taken to addressing the state of European observations systems and related data analysis by some leading actors in the field. This research reports on approaches to climate observations and analyses in Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, The Netherlands and Austria and explores options for a more coordinated approach to national responses to climate observations in Europe. The key aspects addressed are: an assessment of approaches to develop GCOS and provision of analysis of GCOS data; an evaluation of how these countries are reporting development of GCOS; highlighting best practice in advancing GCOS implementation including analysis of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs); a comparative summary of the differences and synergies in terms of the reporting of climate observations; an overview of relevant European initiatives and recommendations on how identified gaps might be addressed in the short to medium term.

In vitro and in vivo analysis of co-electrospun scaffolds made of medical grade poly(epsilon-caprolactone) and porcine collagen

In this study, a nanofiber mesh made by co-electrospinning medical grade poly(epsilon-caprolactone) and collagen (mPCL/Col) was fabricated and studied. Its mechanical properties and characteristics were analyzed and compared to mPCL meshes. mPCL/Col meshes showed a reduction in strength but an increase in ductility when compared to PCL meshes. In vitro assays revealed that mPCL/Col supported the attachment and proliferation of smooth muscle cells on both sides of the mesh. In vivo studies in the corpus cavernosa of rabbits revealed that the mPCL/Col scaffold used in conjunction with autologous smooth muscle cells resulted in better integration with host tissue when compared to cell free scaffolds. On a cellular level preseeded scaffolds showed a minimized foreign body reaction.

Thermal analysis of synthetic reevesite and cobalt substituted reevesite (Ni,Co)6Fe2(OH)16(CO3)•4H2O

The mineral reevesite and the cobalt substituted reevesite have been synthesised. The d(003) spacings of the minerals ranged from 7.54 to 7.95 Å. The maximum d(003) value occurred at around Ni:Co 0.4:0.6. This maximum in interlayer distance is proposed to be due to a greater number of carbonate anions and water molecules intercalated into the structure. The stability of the reevesite and cobalt doped reevesite was determined by thermogravimetric analysis. The maximum temperature of the reevesite occurs for the unsubstituted reevesite and is around 220°C. The effect of cobalt substitution results in a decrease in thermal stability of the reevesites. Four thermal decomposition steps are observed and are attributed to dehydration, dehydroxylation and decarbonation, decomposition of the formed carbonate and oxygen loss at ~807 °C. A mechanism for the thermal decomposition of the reevesite and the cobalt substituted reevesite is proposed.

Phylodynamic analysis of the emergence and epidemiological impact of transmissible defective dengue viruses

Intra-host sequence data from RNA viruses have revealed the ubiquity of defective viruses in natural viral populations, sometimes at surprisingly high frequency. Although defective viruses have long been known to laboratory virologists, their relevance in clinical and epidemiological settings has not been established. The discovery of long-term transmission of a defective lineage of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) in Myanmar, first seen in 2001, raised important questions about the emergence of transmissible defective viruses and their role in viral epidemiology. By combining phylogenetic analyses and dynamical modelling, we investigate how evolutionary and ecological processes at the intra-host and inter-host scales shaped the emergence and spread of the defective DENV-1 lineage. We show that this lineage of defective viruses emerged between June 1998 and February 2001, and that the defective virus was transmitted primarily through co-transmission with the functional virus to uninfected individuals. We provide evidence that, surprisingly, this co-transmission route has a higher transmission potential than transmission of functional dengue viruses alone. Consequently, we predict that the defective lineage should increase overall incidence of dengue infection, which could account for the historically high dengue incidence reported in Myanmar in 2001-2002. Our results show the unappreciated potential for defective viruses to impact the epidemiology of human pathogens, possibly by modifying the virulence-transmissibility trade-off, or to emerge as circulating infections in their own right. They also demonstrate that interactions between viral variants, such as complementation, can open new pathways to viral emergence.

Identification of a cis-regulatory element by transient analysis of co-ordinately regulated genes

Background Transcription factors (TFs) co-ordinately regulate target genes that are dispersed throughout the genome. This co-ordinate regulation is achieved, in part, through the interaction of transcription factors with conserved cis-regulatory motifs that are in close proximity to the target genes. While much is known about the families of transcription factors that regulate gene expression in plants, there are few well characterised cis-regulatory motifs. In Arabidopsis, over-expression of the MYB transcription factor PAP1 (PRODUCTION OF ANTHOCYANIN PIGMENT 1) leads to transgenic plants with elevated anthocyanin levels due to the co-ordinated up-regulation of genes in the anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway. In addition to the anthocyanin biosynthetic genes, there are a number of un-associated genes that also change in expression level. This may be a direct or indirect consequence of the over-expression of PAP1. Results Oligo array analysis of PAP1 over-expression Arabidopsis plants identified genes co-ordinately up-regulated in response to the elevated expression of this transcription factor. Transient assays on the promoter regions of 33 of these up-regulated genes identified eight promoter fragments that were transactivated by PAP1. Bioinformatic analysis on these promoters revealed a common cis-regulatory motif that we showed is required for PAP1 dependent transactivation. Conclusion Co-ordinated gene regulation by individual transcription factors is a complex collection of both direct and indirect effects. Transient transactivation assays provide a rapid method to identify direct target genes from indirect target genes. Bioinformatic analysis of the promoters of these direct target genes is able to locate motifs that are common to this sub-set of promoters, which is impossible to identify with the larger set of direct and indirect target genes. While this type of analysis does not prove a direct interaction between protein and DNA, it does provide a tool to characterise cis-regulatory sequences that are necessary for transcription activation in a complex list of co-ordinately regulated genes.

Gene electrotransfer into murine skeletal muscle: A systematic analysis of parameters for long-term gene expression

Skeletal muscle is an attractive target tissue for delivery of therapeutic genes, since it is well vascularized, easily accessible, and has a high capacity for protein synthesis. For efficient transfection in skeletal muscle, several protocols have been described, including delivery of low voltage electric pulses and a combination of high and low voltage electric pulses. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of different parameters of electrotransfection on short-term and long-term transfection efficiency in murine skeletal muscle, and to evaluate histological changes in the treated tissue. Different parameters of electric pulses, different time lags between plasmid DNA injection and application of electric pulses, and different doses of plasmid DNA were tested for electrotransfection of tibialis cranialis muscle of C57BI/6 mice using DNA plasmid encoding green fluorescent protein (GFP). Transfection efficiency was assessed on frozen tissue sections one week after electrotransfection using a fluorescence microscope and also noninvasively, followed by an in vivo imaging system using a fluorescence stereo microscope over a period of several months. Histological changes in muscle were evaluated immediately or several months after electrotransfection by determining infiltration of inflammatory mononuclear cells and presence of necrotic muscle fibers. The most efficient electrotransfection into skeletal muscle of C57BI/6 mice in our experiments was achieved when one high voltage (HV) and four low voltage (LV) electric pulses were applied 5 seconds after the injection of 30 μg of plasmid DNA. This protocol resulted in the highest short-term as well as long-term transfection. The fluorescence intensity of the transfected area declined after 2-3 weeks, but GFP fluorescence was still detectable 18 months after electrotransfection. Extensive inflammatory mononuclear cell infiltration was observed immediately after the electrotransfection procedure using the described parameters, but no necrosis or late tissue damage was observed. This study showed that electric pulse parameters, time lag between the injection of DNA and application of electric pulses, and dose of plasmid DNA affected the duration of transgene expression in murine skeletal muscle. Therefore, transgene expression in muscle can be controlled by appropriate selection of electrotransfection protocol.

Co-movements in commodity prices : a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co-movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co-movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid-2008 to the end of 2009 co-movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co-movement during the sampled period.