Evaluación cuantitativa de pérdidas por peligros geológicos. Caso del archipiélago de Canarias: Inundaciones, sismicidad y vulcanismo

Existe una creciente preocupación por las catástrofes de origen natural que están por llegar, motivo por el que se están realizando estudios desde prácticamente todas las ramas de la ciencia. La razón para ello se puede encontrar en el miedo a que los eventos futuros puedan dificultar las actividades humanas, aunque no es el único factor. Por todo ello, se produce una dispersión muy importante incluso en los conceptos más elementales como qué debe ser considerado o cómo debe llamarse y catalogarse uno u otro elemento. En consecuencia, los métodos para comprender los riesgos naturales también son muy diferentes, rara vez encontrándose enfoques realmente multidisciplinares. Se han realizado algunos esfuerzos para crear un marco de entendimiento común como por ejemplo, la "Directiva sobre inundaciones" o, más recientemente, la Directiva Inspire. Las entidades aseguradoras y reaseguradoras son un actor importante entre los muchos involucrados en los estudios de riesgos. Su interés radica en el hecho de que terminan pagando la mayor parte de la factura, si no toda. Pero, a cuánto puede ascender esa factura, no es una pregunta fácil de responder aún en casos muy concretos, y sin embargo, es la pregunta que constantemente se plantea por parte de los tomadores de decisiones a todos los niveles. Este documento resume las actividades de investigación que han llevado a cabo al objeto de sentar un marco de referencia, implementando de enfoques numéricos capaces de hacer frente a algunas de las cuestiones más relevantes que se encuentran en casi todos los estudios de riesgos naturales, ensayando conceptos de manera pragmática. Para ello, se escogió un lugar experimental de acuerdo a diferentes criterios, como la densidad de población, la facilidad de proporcionar los límites geográficos claros, la presencia de tres de los procesos geológicos más importantes (inundaciones, terremotos y vulcanismo) y la disponibilidad de datos. El modelo aquí propuesto aprovecha fuentes de datos muy diversas para evaluar los peligros naturales, poniendo de relieve la necesidad de un enfoque multidisciplinar y emplea un catálogo de datos único, unificado, independiente (no orientado), coherente y homogéneo para estimar el valor de las propiedades. Ahora bien, los datos se explotan de manera diferente según cada tipo de peligro, manteniendo sin variación los conceptos subyacentes. Durante esta investigación, se ha encontrado una gran brecha en la relación entre las pérdidas reales y las probabilidades del peligro, algo contrario a lo que se ha pensado que debía ser el comportamiento más probable de los riesgos naturales, demostrando que los estudios de riesgo tienen vida útil muy limitada. En parte debido ello, el modelo propuesto en este estudio es el de trabajar con escenarios, fijando una probabilidad de ocurrencia, lo que es contrario al modelo clásico de evaluar funciones continuas de riesgo. Otra razón para abordar la cuestión mediante escenarios es forzar al modelo para proporcionar unas cifras creíbles de daño máximo fijando cuestiones como la ubicación espacial de un evento y sus probabilidades, aportando una nueva visión del "peor escenario posible” de probabilidad conocida. ABSTRACT There is a growing concern about catastrophes of natural origin about to come hence many studies are being carried out from almost any science branch. Even though it is not the only one, fear for the upcoming events that might jeopardize any given human activity is the main motive. A forking effect is therefore heavily present even on the basic concepts of what is to be considered or how should it be named and catalogued; as a consequence, methods towards understanding natural risks also show great differences and a multidisciplinary approach has seldomly been followed. Some efforts were made to create a common understanding of such a matter, the “Floods Directive” or more recently the Inspire Directive, are a couple of examples. The insurance sector is an important actor among the many involved. Their interest relies on the fact that, eventually, they pay most of the bill if not all. But how much could that be is not an easy question to be answerd even in a very specific case, and it is almost always the question posed by decision makers at all levels. This document summarizes research activities that have being carried out in order to put some solid ground to be followed, implementing numerical approaches that are capable of coping with some of the most relevant issues found in almost all natural risk studies, testing concepts pragmatically. In order to do so, an experimental site was selected according to different criteria, such as population density, the ease of providing clear geographical boundaries, the presence of three of the most important geological processes (floods, earthquakes and volcanism) and data availability. The model herein proposed takes advantage of very diferent data sources in the assessment of hazard, pointing out how a multidisciplinary approach is needed, and uses only one unified, independent, consistent, homogeneous (non objective driven) source for assessing property value. Data is exploited differently according to each hazard type, but the underlying concepts remain the same. During this research, a deep detachment was found between actual loss and hazard chances, contrarily to what has been thought to be the most likely behaviour of natural hazards, proving that risk studies have a very limited lifespan. Partially because of such finding, the model in this study addresses scenarios with fixed probability of occurrence, as opposed to studying a continuous hazard function as usually proposed. Another reason for studying scenarios was to force the model to provide a reliable figure after a set of given parameters where fixed, such as the spatial location of an event and its chances, so the “worst case” of a given return period could be found.

Methodology based on FBG sensors for monitoring of FRP-strengthened beams

Advanced composite materials are increasingly used in the strengthening of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The use of externally bonded strips made of fibre-reinforced plastics (FRP) as strengthening method has gained widespread acceptance in recent years since it has many advantages over the traditional techniques. However, unfortunately, this strengthening method is often associated with a brittle and sudden failure caused by some form of FRP bond failure, originated at the termination of the FRP material or at intermediate areas in the vicinity of flexural cracks in the RC beam. Up to date, little effort in the early prediction of the debonding in its initial instants even though this effect is not noticeable by simple visual observation. An early detection of this phenomenon might help in taking actions to prevent future catastrophes. Fibre-optic Bragg grating (FBG) sensors are able to measure strains locally with high resolution and accuracy. Furthermore, as their physical size is extremely small compared with other strain measuring components, it enables to be embedded at the concrete-FRP interface for determining the strain distribution without influencing the mechanical properties of the host materials. This paper shows the development of a debonding identification methodology based on strains experimentally measured. For, it a simplified model is implemented to simulate the behaviour of FRP-strengthened reinforced concrete beams. This model is taken as a basis to. develop an model updating procedure able to detect minor debonding at the concrete-FRP interface from experimental strains obtained by using FBG sensors embedded at the interface

La protección civil municipal: análisis de los distintos tipos de gestión y propuesta metodológica de planificación

Mediante la elaboración de esta tesis doctoral se pretende diseñar un sistema para la realización del plan de autoprotección en industrias con riesgo de incendio dentro de un polígono industrial. Para desarrollar esta línea de investigación se realizará una investigación cartográfica así como un reconocimiento visual de las distintas empresas industriales, de actividades heterogéneas, seleccionadas por su emplazamiento y condiciones. Este tipo de industria es esencial en el sistema económico nacional, ya que dota de recursos y servicios al tejido social, además de tener una relación directa con la generación de riqueza y por tanto incide de forma positiva en el empleo de cualquier región. Estas razones y otras son determinantes para fomentar el progreso, si bien nunca a expensas de la seguridad de los empleados que hacen posible la línea de producción así como de los posibles viandantes que transcurran por la zona de impacto en caso de incidentes como por ejemplo un incendio que afecte a cualquiera de los locales y/o empresas que se emplazen en los denominados polígonos industriales. La tesis incluye trabajos experimentales de los que se extraen recomendaciones y conclusiones encaminadas a la optimización de la instrumentalización utilizada, las técnicas de observación, diseño y cálculo necesarias que determinarán el acercamiento al método propuesto para nuestra valoración del riesgo por incendio. Las posibles emergencias que pueden darse a nivel de industrias localizadas en polígonos industriales son diversas y numerosas. De todas ellas se elige abordar el caso de “incendio” por su casuística más numerosa. No obstante, la planificación orientada desde el prisma de la investigación de esta tesis puede estenderse a cualquier otro riesgo, lo que se aportará como líneas futuras de investigación. Las aproximaciones y etapas de los trabajos que forman parte de esta investigación se han integrado en cada capítulo y son las siguientes: En primer lugar un capítulo de Introducción, en el que se realiza una reflexión justificada de la elección del tema tratado, se formula la hipótesis de partida y se enumeran los distintos objetivos que se pretenden alcanzar. En el segundo capítulo, titulado Aspectos de la Protección Civil en la Constitución Española de 1978, se ha realizado un estudio exhaustivo de la Constitución en todo lo relacionado con el ámbito de la protección, haciendo especial énfasis en las distintas competencias según el tipo de administración que corresponda en cada caso, así como las obligaciones y deberes que corresponden a los ciudadanos en caso de catástrofe. Así mismo se analizan especialmente los casos de Guerra y el estado de Alarma. En el tercer capítulo, titulado Repuesta de las administraciones públicas ante emergencias colectivas, se trata de formular el adecuado sistema de repuesta que sería preciso para tratar de mitigar desastres y catástrofes. Se analizan los distintos sistemas de gestión de emergencias constatando en cada caso los pros y los contras de cada uno. Se pretende con ello servir de ayuda en la toma de decisiones de manera coherente y racional. El capítulo cuarto, denominado Planes Locales de emergencia. Estudio en las distintas administraciones, se ha pormenorizado en la presentación así como puesta en funcionamiento de los planes, comparando los datos obtenidos entre ellos para concluir en un punto informativo que nos lleva a la realidad de la planificación. Para la realización y desarrollo de los capítulos 5 y 6, llamados Análisis de la Norma Básica de Autoprotección y Métodos de evaluación del riesgo de Incendio, se estudia la normativa actual en autoprotección prestando atención a los antecedentes históricos así como a todas las figuras que intervienen en la misma. Se analizan los distintos métodos actuales para la valoración del riesgo por incendio en industrias. Este aspecto es de carácter imprescindible en la protección civil de los ciudadanos pero también es de especial importancia en las compañías aseguradoras. En el capítulo 7, Propuesta metodológica, se propone y justifica la necesidad de establecer una metodología de estudio para estos casos de riesgo por incendio en industrias para así, acortar el tiempo de respuesta de los servicios de emergencia hasta la zona, así como dotar de información imprescindible sobre el riesgo a trabajadores y transeúntes. El último capítulo se refiere a las Conclusiones, donde se establecen y enuncian una serie de conclusiones y resultados como consecuencia de la investigación desarrollada, para finalizar esta tesis doctoral enunciando posibles desarrollos y líneas de investigación futuros. ABSTRACT The development of this thesis is to design a system for the implementation of the plan of self-protection in industries with risk of fire in an industrial park. To develop this line of research will be done cartographic research as well as visual recognition of the distinct and heterogeneous industrial companies selected by its location and conditions. This type of industry is an essential part in the economic national system providing economic resources to society as well as with a direct relationship in unemployment. For this reason it is crucial to promote their progress, but never at the expense of the security of the employees that make the line of production as well as possible walkers that pass by the area of impact in the event of a fire affecting the company. The thesis includes experimental works which are extracted recommendations and conclusions aimed at optimization of used exploit, techniques of observation, design and calculation needed to determine the approach to the method proposed for our assessment of the risk from fire. The approaches and stages of works that are part of this research have been integrated into each chapter and are as follows: In the first chapter, holder introduction, perform a supporting reflection of the choice of the subject matter, is formulated the hypothesis of departure and listed the different objectives that are intended to achieve. In the second chapter, holder aspects of Civil Protection in the Spanish Constitution of 1978, examines an exhaustive study of the Constitution in everything related to the scope of protection. With an emphasis on individual skills according to the type of management with corresponding in each case, as well as the obligations and duties which correspond to citizens in the event of a catastrophe. Also analyzes the particular cases of war and the State of alarm. In the third chapter, holder public administrations collective emergency response, discussed trafficking in defining the proper system response that would be precise to address disasters and catastrophes. We discusses the different systems of emergency management in each case, we pretend the pros and cons of each. We tried that this serve as decision-making aid coherent and rational way. The fourth chapter is holder Local Emergency Plans (LEP). Study on the different administrations, has detailed in the presentation as well as operation of the LEP, comparing the data between them to conclude in an information point that leads us to the reality of planning. For the realization and development of chapters 5 and 6, holder Analysis of the basic rule of self-protection and fire risk assessment methods, paying attention to the historical background as well as all the figures involved in the same studies with the current rules of self-protection. The current methods for the estimation of the risk are analyzed by fire in industries. This aspect is essential in the civil protection of the citizens, but it is also of special importance for insurance companies. The seventh chapter, holder Methodological proposal, we propose and justifies the need to establish a methodology for these cases of risk by fire in industries. That shorts the response time of emergency services to the area, and provides essential information about the risk to workers and walkers. The last chapter refers to the Conclusions, laying down a series of results as a consequence of the previous chapters to complete billing possible developments and research future.

MÍDIAS SOCIAIS DIGITAIS: ESPAÇO DE RELACIONAMENTO E COMUNICAÇÃO ESTRATÉGICA

O trabalho tem como proposta avaliar a postura das organizações nas mídias sociais digitais, considerando o fato de que esses novos ambientes virtuais têm modificado drasticamente a maneira pela qual elas promovem o relacionamento com seus públicos estratégicos. O objetivo principal da pesquisa é identificar e compreender como as organizações se posicionam diante de comentários desfavoráveis nas mídias sociais digitais que possam impactar sua imagem e reputação, bem como mostrar a importância de monitorar constantemente o consumidor e dialogar com ele nos canais digitais para evitar riscos à marca. A metodologia aplicada denomina-se Estudo de Casos Múltiplos, por meio da qual analisaram-se os comentários desfavoráveis às marcas: Vivo, Tim e Oi, na página do Facebook, durante o mês de setembro de 2015. Construiu-se um protocolo de pesquisa, e realizou-se o acompanhamento dessas marcas analisando-lhes os posts e os comentários desfavoráveis coletados no período. Constatou-se, após tais procedimentos que as operadoras apresentam frequentemente dificuldades para se relacionar com os públicos nas mídias sociais digitais, o que as coloca em risco quanto à sua imagem e reputação.

Dissociation of the Tubulin-sequestering and Microtubule Catastrophe-promoting Activities of Oncoprotein 18/Stathmin

Oncoprotein 18/stathmin (Op18) has been identified recently as a protein that destabilizes microtubules, but the mechanism of destabilization is currently controversial. Based on in vitro microtubule assembly assays, evidence has been presented supporting conflicting destabilization models of either tubulin sequestration or promotion of microtubule catastrophes. We found that Op18 can destabilize microtubules by both of these mechanisms and that these activities can be dissociated by changing pH. At pH 6.8, Op18 slowed microtubule elongation and increased catastrophes at both plus and minus ends, consistent with a tubulin-sequestering activity. In contrast, at pH 7.5, Op18 promoted microtubule catastrophes, particularly at plus ends, with little effect on elongation rates at either microtubule end. Dissociation of tubulin-sequestering and catastrophe-promoting activities of Op18 was further demonstrated by analysis of truncated Op18 derivatives. Lack of a C-terminal region of Op18 (aa 100–147) resulted in a truncated protein that lost sequestering activity at pH 6.8 but retained catastrophe-promoting activity. In contrast, lack of an N-terminal region of Op18 (aa 5–25) resulted in a truncated protein that still sequestered tubulin at pH 6.8 but was unable to promote catastrophes at pH 7.5. At pH 6.8, both the full length and the N-terminal–truncated Op18 bound tubulin, whereas truncation at the C-terminus resulted in a pronounced decrease in tubulin binding. Based on these results, and a previous study documenting a pH-dependent change in binding affinity between Op18 and tubulin, it is likely that tubulin sequestering observed at lower pH resulted from the relatively tight interaction between Op18 and tubulin and that this tight binding requires the C-terminus of Op18; however, under conditions in which Op18 binds weakly to tubulin (pH 7.5), Op18 stimulated catastrophes without altering tubulin subunit association or dissociation rates, and Op18 did not depolymerize microtubules capped with guanylyl (α, β)-methylene diphosphonate–tubulin subunits. We hypothesize that weak binding between Op18 and tubulin results in free Op18, which is available to interact with microtubule ends and thereby promote catastrophes by a mechanism that likely involves GTP hydrolysis.

Traducir en tiempos de crisis: estudio comparativo de la traducción francés-español de colocaciones en el lenguaje de los negocios

El presente artículo estudia la traducción de las colocaciones formadas a partir del término crise, aparecidas en un corpus especializado. Tras reseñar algunos trabajos previos sobre lenguaje económico y metáfora en tiempos de crisis, se clasifican las colocaciones originales identificadas en el corpus según diversos conceptos metafóricos. Por último, se analizan las estrategias de traducción y se valoran con el apoyo de un corpus comparable ad hoc. El análisis revela, por una parte, que las metáforas identificadas pueden asociarse a conceptos como, entre otros, alimentos, catástrofes, enfermedades, objetos o pozos, y, por otra parte, que existe una clara tendencia a la traducción literal, especialmente en el caso de las expresiones asociadas a las enfermedades, si bien también se dan en menor medida otras estrategias de traducción. Los resultados del estudio son de utilidad para la enseñanza de la traducción y el lenguaje económico o en la elaboración de repertorios fraseológicos.

A course of lectures on modern history;

Tr. of Ueber die neuere geschichte.

Approximating persistence in a general class of population processes

We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the existence of uni-instantaneous Q-processes with a given finite mu-invariant measure

Let S be a countable set and let Q = (q(ij), i, j is an element of S) be a conservative q-matrix over S with a single instantaneous state b. Suppose that we are given a real number mu >= 0 and a strictly positive probability measure m = (m(j), j is an element of S) such that Sigma(i is an element of S) m(i)q(ij) = -mu m(j), j 0 b. We prove that there exists a Q-process P(t) = (p(ij) (t), i, j E S) for which m is a mu-invariant measure, that is Sigma(i is an element of s) m(i)p(ij)(t) = e(-mu t)m(j), j is an element of S. We illustrate our results with reference to the Kolmogorov 'K 1' chain and a birth-death process with catastrophes and instantaneous resurrection.

The UN Security Council and the question of humanitarian intervention in Darfur

This article explores the different moral and legal arguments used by protagonists in the debate about whether or not to conduct a humanitarian intervention in Darfur. The first section briefly outlines four moral and legal positions on whether there is (and should be) a right and/or duty of humanitarian intervention: communitarianism, restrictionist and counter-restrictionist legal positivism and liberal cosmopolitanism. The second section then provides an overview of the Security Council's debate about responding to Darfur's crisis, showing how its policy was influenced by both normative concerns and hard-nosed political calculations. The article concludes by asking what Darfur's case reveals about the legitimacy and likelihood of humanitarian intervention in such catastrophes and the role of the UN Security Council as the primary authorising body for the use of international force. The authors argue that this case demonstrates that for the cosmopolitan/counter-restrictionist case to prevail pivotal states need to put humanitarian emergencies on the global agenda and express a willingness to act without Council authorisation, though the question of how to proceed in cases where the Council is deadlocked remains vexed.

The two limits debates: "Limits to Growth" and climate change

In this article we compare the current debate about global warming with the earlier discourse of Limits to Growth (LtG) of the 1970's. We are especially interested in the similarities of and differences between the two cases and therefore compare the policy challenges and lessons to be drawn. While the two debates differ on important issues, they share a technocratic orientation to public policy, and susceptibility to similar pitfalls. In both debates alarming scenarios about future catastrophes play an important role. We suggest that climate change policy discourse needs to focus more closely on the social, economic, and political dimensions of climate change, as opposed to its excessive emphasis on emission reduction targets. We also argue that an excessive faith in the market mechanisms to supply global warming mitigation technologies is problematic. In this respect, we provide a reality check regarding the political implications of emission targets and timetables and suggest how policy issues can be moved forward.

Information Supply of Geo-information Systems for the Forecasting Problem of the Avalanche Danger

This article is dedicated to the vital problem of the creation of GIS-systems for the monitoring, prognostication and control of technogenic natural catastrophes. The decrease of risks, the protection of economic objects, averting the human victims, caused by the dynamism of avalanche centers, depends on the effectiveness of the prognostication procedures of avalanche danger used. In the article the structure of a prognostication subsystem information input is developed and the technology for the complex forecast of avalanche-prone situations is proposed.

Loss of Accuracy in Numerical Computations

Михаил М. Константинов, Петко Х. Петков - Разгледани са възможните катастрофални ефекти от неправилното използване на крайна машинна аритметика с плаваща точка. За съжаление, тази тема не винаги се разбира достатъчно добре от студентите по приложна и изчислителна математика, като положението в инженерните и икономическите специалности в никакъв случай не е по-добро. За преодоляване на този образователен пропуск тук сме разгледали главните виновници за загубата на точност при числените компютърни пресмятания. Надяваме се, че представените резултати ще помогнат на студентите и лекторите за по-добро разбиране и съответно за избягване на основните фактори, които могат да разрушат точността при компютърните числени пресмятания. Последното не е маловажно – числените катастрофи понякога стават истински, с големи щети и човешки жертви.

Contradictions inherent in the management of natural and industrial disasters

These days people keep wondering whether the world is more dangerous now than it was before. Do natural disasters really happen more frequently or is it just that the damage they cause that has become greater? The situation is not quite clear. As a result of the globalizing world and advanced communication infrastructure, the number of known / reported catastrophes is relatively high, but that does not necessarily mean there has been an actual increase in frequency. The red mud spill in Hungary was a special combination of industrial and natural disasters. This is one of the reasons why it is very hard to pinpoint who is responsible for the event. Natural disasters tend to raise questions about responsibility that are different from those concerning industrial catastrophes. Interestingly enough, however, nature often plays an important role in industrial disasters. The present article is concerned with how the issues of responsibility are handled in the case of industrial disasters.

Conselho estadual de meio ambiente do Rio Grande do Norte: paradigmas, proposições e atores sociais

The environmental movement rises up strongly in the year 1972 with the Stocolmus Conference, in the middle of pressions concerning the environmental preservation, in consequence of the environmental catastrophes. In spite of the fact that, in Brazil, the environmental movement has is institutionalization with the 1988 Constitution, in a way that the councils became democratic spaces, and provided the society’s participation in the management of public policies. In this way, we propose a discussion about the participation and the exercise of the citizenship in the State Council of Environment of Rio Grande do Norte (CONEMA), focusing the glance about the decisory process, as from the expression of the social actors. For that, our research compilate documents of the meetings of the referring council, transcribing the main discussions about the environmental necessities which were important in the potiguar society, and checking how these agents defend their interest during the meetings. We understand, with these informations, the role of CONEMA/RN as a communicative mechanism between State and Society. With the analysis of the informations of the extraordinary meetings from 2007 to 2014, we concluded that the CONEMA is a council where the civil organized society takes part on the decisory process, despite the great influence of the representative actors of public power over the representative actors of civil society. The results of this research confirm the discrepancy between the participation of representative councilors of civil society in CONEMA/RN. The conclusion point out that the civil society representative don’t, yet, assimilate the citizen duty, the responsibility of it1s action, producing, in this way, damages for the legal structure of the potiguar environmental legislation, with serious consequences on the public policy implementation