Endogenous Financing and the Long Run Impact of Money Growth on Output and Prices

Most monetary models make use of the quantity theory of money along with a Phillips curve. This implies a strong correlation between money growth and output in the short run (with little or no correlation between money and prices) and a strong long run correlation between money growth and inflation and inflation (with little or no correlation between money growth and output). The empirical evidence between money and inflation is very robust, but the long run money/output relationship is ambiguous at best. This paper attempts to explain this by looking at the impact of money growth on firm financing.

Complexity in the Optimisation of ATM Performance Metrics

Today's motivation for autonomous systems research stems out of the fact that networked environments have reached a level of complexity and heterogeneity that make their control and management by solely human administrators more and more difficult. The optimisation of performance metrics for the air traffic management system, like in other networked system, has become more complex with increasing number of flights, capacity constraints, environmental factors and safety regulations. It is anticipated that a new structure of planning layers and the introduction of higher levels of automation will reduce complexity and will optimise the performance metrics of the air traffic management system. This paper discusses the complexity of optimising air traffic management performance metrics and proposes a way forward based on higher levels of automation.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

The Escherichia coli MG1655 in silico metabolic genotype: Its definition, characteristics, and capabilities

The Escherichia coli MG1655 genome has been completely sequenced. The annotated sequence, biochemical information, and other information were used to reconstruct the E. coli metabolic map. The stoichiometric coefficients for each metabolic enzyme in the E. coli metabolic map were assembled to construct a genome-specific stoichiometric matrix. The E. coli stoichiometric matrix was used to define the system's characteristics and the capabilities of E. coli metabolism. The effects of gene deletions in the central metabolic pathways on the ability of the in silico metabolic network to support growth were assessed, and the in silico predictions were compared with experimental observations. It was shown that based on stoichiometric and capacity constraints the in silico analysis was able to qualitatively predict the growth potential of mutant strains in 86% of the cases examined. Herein, it is demonstrated that the synthesis of in silico metabolic genotypes based on genomic, biochemical, and strain-specific information is possible, and that systems analysis methods are available to analyze and interpret the metabolic phenotype.

Connexin expression in electrically coupled postnatal rat brain neurons

Electrical coupling by gap junctions is an important form of cell-to-cell communication in early brain development. Whereas glial cells remain electrically coupled at postnatal stages, adult vertebrate neurons were thought to communicate mainly via chemical synapses. There is now accumulating evidence that in certain neuronal cell populations the capacity for electrical signaling by gap junction channels is still present in the adult. Here we identified electrically coupled pairs of neurons between postnatal days 12 and 18 in rat visual cortex, somatosensory cortex, and hippocampus. Notably, coupling was found both between pairs of inhibitory neurons and between inhibitory and excitatory neurons. Molecular analysis by single-cell reverse transcription–PCR revealed a differential expression pattern of connexins in these identified neurons.

Inflation and Unemployment In EMU and the United States. ACES Working Papers No. 10, 2008

The original purpose of this paper was to see why the Phillips Curve numbers seem to be so much worse for the EMU countries than the United States since EMU was began operation in 1990. The problem is that there is no evidence of a Phillips curve relationship in EMU or in the United States during this seventeen year period. As can be seen in Figures 1 and 2, it just is not there. In about half the years unemployment and inflation moved in the opposite direction, as Phillips would predict, but in other half of the years they moved in the same direction. This may be a matter of time lags, with unemployment lagging inflation, but it seems clear that the Phillips curve is a poor tool for explaining these year to year outcomes in Europe or the United States.

The impact of supply chain performance measurement systems on dynamic behaviour in supply chains

The amplification of demand variation up a supply chain widely termed ‘the Bullwhip Effect’ is disruptive, costly and something that supply chain management generally seeks to minimise. Originally attributed to poor system design; deficiencies in policies, organisation structure and delays in material and information flow all lead to sub-optimal reorder point calculation. It has since been attributed to exogenous random factors such as: uncertainties in demand, supply and distribution lead time but these causes are not exclusive as academic and operational studies since have shown that orders and/or inventories can exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. This increase in the range of possible causes of dynamic behaviour indicates that our understanding of the phenomenon is far from complete. One possible, yet previously unexplored, factor that may influence dynamic behaviour in supply chains is the application and operation of supply chain performance measures. Organisations monitoring and responding to their adopted key performance metrics will make operational changes and this action may influence the level of dynamics within the supply chain, possibly degrading the performance of the very system they were intended to measure. In order to explore this a plausible abstraction of the operational responses to the Supply Chain Council’s SCOR® (Supply Chain Operations Reference) model was incorporated into a classic Beer Game distribution representation, using the dynamic discrete event simulation software Simul8. During the simulation the five SCOR Supply Chain Performance Attributes: Reliability, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Cost and Utilisation were continuously monitored and compared to established targets. Operational adjustments to the; reorder point, transportation modes and production capacity (where appropriate) for three independent supply chain roles were made and the degree of dynamic behaviour in the Supply Chain measured, using the ratio of the standard deviation of upstream demand relative to the standard deviation of the downstream demand. Factors employed to build the detailed model include: variable retail demand, order transmission, transportation delays, production delays, capacity constraints demand multipliers and demand averaging periods. Five dimensions of supply chain performance were monitored independently in three autonomous supply chain roles and operational settings adjusted accordingly. Uniqueness of this research stems from the application of the five SCOR performance attributes with modelled operational responses in a dynamic discrete event simulation model. This project makes its primary contribution to knowledge by measuring the impact, on supply chain dynamics, of applying a representative performance measurement system.

Does timing of decisions in a mixed duopoly matter?

We determine the endogenous order of moves in a mixed pricesetting duopoly. In contrast to the existing literature on mixed oligopolies we establish the payo equivalence of the games with an exogenously given order of moves if the most plausible equilibrium is realized in the market. Hence, in this case it does not matter whether one becomes a leader or a follower. We also establish that replacing a private firm by a public firm in the standard Bertrand-Edgeworth game with capacity constraints increases social welfare and that a pure-strategy equilibrium always exists.

Integrated Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Networks in Local and Urban Scales

This paper develops an integrated optimal power flow (OPF) tool for distribution networks in two spatial scales. In the local scale, the distribution network, the natural gas network, and the heat system are coordinated as a microgrid. In the urban scale, the impact of natural gas network is considered as constraints for the distribution network operation. The proposed approach incorporates unbalance three-phase electrical systems, natural gas systems, and combined cooling, heating, and power systems. The interactions among the above three energy systems are described by energy hub model combined with components capacity constraints. In order to efficiently accommodate the nonlinear constraint optimization problem, particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to set the control variables in the OPF problem. Numerical studies indicate that by using the OPF method, the distribution network can be economically operated. Also, the tie-line power can be effectively managed.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

A NAIRU assessment: an applied case to Colombia’s labor markets

Given the discrepancy over the optimum levels of employment for Colombia, this research targets both, the national and urban, Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for the Colombian markets -- In doing so, there is a strong pertinence in estimating the constant NAIRU through raw and minimally altered data and providing the reader with a complete brief of the theory in which the model is founded -- The introduction of supply shocks is considered to attain improved estimations and a more reliable assessment of the NAIRU to those that have previously been attempted -- The backbone of the analysis is conducted through the relationship established by the Phillips curve from 2001 until 2015

Joint Optimization for Social Content Delivery in Wireless Networks

Over the last decade, success of social networks has significantly reshaped how people consume information. Recommendation of contents based on user profiles is well-received. However, as users become dominantly mobile, little is done to consider the impacts of the wireless environment, especially the capacity constraints and changing channel. In this dissertation, we investigate a centralized wireless content delivery system, aiming to optimize overall user experience given the capacity constraints of the wireless networks, by deciding what contents to deliver, when and how. We propose a scheduling framework that incorporates content-based reward and deliverability. Our approach utilizes the broadcast nature of wireless communication and social nature of content, by multicasting and precaching. Results indicate this novel joint optimization approach outperforms existing layered systems that separate recommendation and delivery, especially when the wireless network is operating at maximum capacity. Utilizing limited number of transmission modes, we significantly reduce the complexity of the optimization. We also introduce the design of a hybrid system to handle transmissions for both system recommended contents ('push') and active user requests ('pull'). Further, we extend the joint optimization framework to the wireless infrastructure with multiple base stations. The problem becomes much harder in that there are many more system configurations, including but not limited to power allocation and how resources are shared among the base stations ('out-of-band' in which base stations transmit with dedicated spectrum resources, thus no interference; and 'in-band' in which they share the spectrum and need to mitigate interference). We propose a scalable two-phase scheduling framework: 1) each base station obtains delivery decisions and resource allocation individually; 2) the system consolidates the decisions and allocations, reducing redundant transmissions. Additionally, if the social network applications could provide the predictions of how the social contents disseminate, the wireless networks could schedule the transmissions accordingly and significantly improve the dissemination performance by reducing the delivery delay. We propose a novel method utilizing: 1) hybrid systems to handle active disseminating requests; and 2) predictions of dissemination dynamics from the social network applications. This method could mitigate the performance degradation for content dissemination due to wireless delivery delay. Results indicate that our proposed system design is both efficient and easy to implement.

Train scheduling and rolling stock assignment in high speed trains

The Train Timetabling Problem (TTP) has been widely studied for freight and passenger rail systems. A lesser effort has been devoted to the study of high-speed rail systems. A modeling issue that has to be addressed is to model departure time choice of passengers on railway services. Passengers who use these systems attempt to travel at predetermined hours due to their daily life necessities (e.g., commuter trips). We incorporate all these features into TTP focusing on high-speed railway systems. We propose a Rail Scheduling and Rolling Stock (RSch-RS) model for timetable planning of high-speed railway systems. This model is composed of two essential elements: i) an infrastructure model for representing the railway network: it includes capacity constraints of the rail network and the Rolling-Stock constraints; and ii) a demand model that defines how the passengers choose the departure time. The resulting model is a mixed-integer programming model which objective function attempts to maximize the profit for the rail operator

TRIPS and Special & Differential Treatment – Revisiting the Case for Derogations in Applying Patent Protection for Pharmaceuticals in Developing Count

In this paper we apply an implicit threshold approach, malleable to the principle of graduation, to identify countries that should benefit from derogations from WTO TRIPS commitments for pharmaceutical patents under the tenets of Special and Differential Treatment. This is based on the identification of four broad constraints loosely classified as; economic constraints; access topharmaceuticals; capacity constraints; and incidence of health outcomes. We identify these by means of analytical criteria and create a composite index that ranks countries according to the observed constraints which delimit the capabilities and desirability of implementing TRIPs disciplines. We discuss the use of negotiated weights and thresholds in determining participation and graduation into general provisions of the agreement. It follows that countries below the chosen threshold should be exempt from these hence receiving Special and Differential Treatment.

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.