The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduced-order modelling of a high-voltage oscillatory impulse generator

The design of high-voltage equipment encompasses the study of oscillatory surges caused by transients such as those produced by switching. By obtaining a model, the response of which reconstructs that observed in the actual system, simulation studies and critical tests can be carried out on the model rather than on the equipment itself. In this paper, methods for the construction of simplified models are described and it is shown how the use of a complex model does not necessarily result in superior response pattern reconstruction.

Postglacial vegetation, fire and climate dynamics at Central Chilean Patagonia (Lake Shaman, 44ºS)

A 19 cal ka BP pollen and charcoal record from Lake Shaman (44°S; 71°W, Chile) was analyzed to establish vegetation, fire and climate dynamics of the forest-steppe ecotone in Central Chilean Patagonia. Lake Shaman record indicates that the upper Río Cisnes valley was free of ice at around 19 cal ka BP. From this date and until 14.8 cal ka BP, a grass steppe with high proportions of shrubs associated to colder and drier conditions than present developed in this area. A continuous increase of Nothofagus accompanied by a decline in the steppe shrubs and sudden dominance of paludal over aquatic plants from 11 cal ka BP was associated to effective moisture increase but still under modern values. The replacement of the cold-dry grass-shrub steppe by a similar-than-present forest-steppe ecotone suggests an increase in temperature indicating the onset of the Holocene. At the same time, moderate fire activity suggested by the charcoal record could be related to major fuel availability as consequence of Nothofagus forest expansion. Between 8 and 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates the easternmost position of the forest-steppe ecotone suggesting the highest effective moisture with the establishment of seasonality between 5 and 3 cal ka BP. From 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates a retraction of the forest-steppe ecotone accompanied by a high pollen record variability and an increased fire activity. These late changes suggest decreased effective moisture associated with a high climatic variability. At regional and extra-regional scale, climatic changes at Lake Shaman's record are mostly associated to changes (latitudinal shifts and/or strengthening/weakening) of past Southern Westerlies that were previously recorded along Patagonia from the Lateglacial to the mid-Holocene. During the Late Holocene, a regional pattern characterized by high record variability emerges throughout Central Chilean Patagonia. This variability would be related to (1) low magnitude Southern Westerlies changes probably associated to ENSO and/or SAM or (2) the complex relationships between vegetation, fire and human occupations during the last 3 cal ka.

Relationship of dayside auroral precipitations to the open-closed separatrix and the pattern of convective flow

The implications are discussed of acceleration of magnetospheric ions by reflection off two magnetopause Alfvén waves, launched by the reconnection site into the inflow regions on both sides of the boundary. The effects of these waves on the ion populations, predicted using the model described by Lockwood et al. [1996], offer a physical interpretation of all the various widely used classifications of precipitation into the dayside ionosphere, namely, central plasma sheet, dayside boundary plasma sheet (BPS), void, low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), cusp, mantle, and polar cap. The location of the open-closed boundary and the form of the convection flow pattern are discussed in relation to the regions in which these various precipitations are typically found. Specifically, the model predicts that both the LLBL and the dayside BPS precipitations are on newly opened field lines and places the convection reversal within the LLBL, as is often observed. It is shown that this offers solutions to a number of paradoxes and problems that arise if the LLBL and BPS precipitations are thought of as being on closed field lines. This model is also used to make quantitive predictions of the longitudinal extent and latitudinal width of the cusp, as a function of solar wind density.

Beyond description to pattern: The contribution of Batesonian epistemology to critical realist research

This paper proposes a limitation to epistemological claims to theory building prevalent in critical realist research. While accepting the basic ontological and epistemological positions of the perspective as developed by Roy Bhaskar, it is argued that application in social science has relied on sociological concepts to explain the underlying generative mechanisms, and that in many cases this has been subject to the effects of an anthropocentric constraint. A novel contribution to critical realist research comes from the work and ideas of Gregory Bateson. This is in service of two central goals of critical realism, namely an abductive route to theory building and a commitment to interdisciplinarity. Five aspects of Bateson’s epistemology are introduced: (1) difference, (2) logical levels of abstraction, (3) recursive causal loops, (4) the logic of metaphor, and (5) Bateson’s theory of mind. The comparison between Bateson and Bhaskar’s ideas is seen as a form of double description, illustrative of the point being raised. The paper concludes with an appeal to critical realists to start exploring the writing and outlook of Bateson himself.

Multilevel analysis of hepatitis A infection in children and adolescents: a household survey in the Northeast and Central-west regions of Brazil

Background The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis A among children and adolescents from the Northeast and Midwest regions and the Federal District of Brazil and to identify individual-, household- and area-levels factors associated with hepatitis A infection. Methods This population-based survey was conducted in 20042005 and covered individuals aged between 5 and 19 years. A stratified multistage cluster sampling technique with probability proportional to size was used to select 1937 individuals aged between 5 and 19 years living in the Federal capital and in the State capitals of 12 states in the study regions. The sample was stratified according to age (59 and 10- to 19-years-old) and capital within each region. Individual- and household-level data were collected by interview at the home of the individual. Variables related to the area were retrieved from census tract data. The outcome was total antibodies to hepatitis A virus detected using commercial EIA. The age distribution of the susceptible population was estimated using a simple catalytic model. The associations between HAV infection and independent variables were assessed using the odds ratio and corrected for the random design effect and sampling weight. Multilevel analysis was performed by GLLAMM using Stata 9.2. Results The prevalence of hepatitis A infection in the 59 and 1019 age-group was 41.5 and 57.4, respectively for the Northeast, 32.3 and 56.0, respectively for the Midwest and 33.8 and 65.1 for the Federal District. A trend for the prevalence of HAV infection to increase according to age was detected in all sites. By the age of 5, 31.5 of the children had already been infected with HAV in the Northeast region compared with 20.0 in the other sites. By the age of 19 years, seropositivity was 70 in all areas. The curves of susceptible populations differed from one area to another. Multilevel modeling showed that variables relating to different levels of education were associated with HAV infection in all sites. Conclusion The study sites were classified as areas with intermediate endemicity area for hepatitis A infection. Differences in age trends of infection were detected among settings. This multilevel model allowed for quantification of contextual predictors of hepatitis A infection in urban areas.

Frontonasal Dysplasia, Severe Neuropsychological Delay, and Midline Central Nervous System Anomalies: Report of 10 Brazilian Male Patients

Here we report on 10 male patients with frontonasal dysplasia, cleft lip/palate, mental retardation, lack of language acquisition, and severe central nervous system involvement. Imaging studies disclosed absence of the corpus callosum, midline cysts, and an abnormally modeled cerebellum. Neuronal heterotopias were present in five patients and parieto-occipital encephalocele in three patients. We suggest that this pattern found exclusively in males, most likely represents a newly recognized syndrome distilled from the group of disorders subsumed under frontonasal dysplasia. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

East-West cranial differentiation in pre-Columbian populations from Central and North America

In a recent study we found that crania from South Amerindian populations on each side of the Andes differ significantly in terms of craniofacial shape. Western populations formed one morphological group, distributed continuously over 14,000 km from the Fuegian archipelago (southern Chile) to the Zulia region (northwestern Venezuela). Easterners formed another group, distributed from the Atlantic Coast up to the eastern foothills of the Andes. This differentiation is further supported by several genetic studies, and indirectly by ecological and archaeological studies. Some authors suggest that this dual biological pattern is consistent with differential rates of gene flow and genetic drift operating on both sides of the Cordillera due to historical reasons. Here we show that such East-West patterning is also observable in North America. We suggest that the ""ecological zones model"" proposed by Dixon, explaining the spread of the early Americans along a Pacific dispersal corridor, combined with the evolution of different population dynamics in both regions, is the most parsimonious mechanism to explain the observed patterns of within- and between-group craniofacial variability. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation of genetic phylogeny and geographical distance of tick-borne encephalitis virus in central Europe

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is the most important arboviral agent causing disease of the central nervous system in central Europe. In this study, 61 TBEV E gene sequences derived from 48 isolates from the Czech Republic, and four isolates and nine TBEV strains detected in ticks from Germany, covering more than half a century from 1954 to 2009, were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic and Bayesian phylodynamic analysis to determine the phylogeography of TBEV in central Europe. The general Eurasian continental east-to-west pattern of the spread of TBEV was confirmed at the regional level but is interlaced with spreading that arises because of local geography and anthropogenic influence. This spread is reflected by the disease pattern in the Czech Republic that has been observed since 1991. The overall evolutionary rate was estimated to be approximately 8x10(-4) substitutions per nucleotide per year. The analysis of the TBEV E genes of 11 strains isolated at one natural focus in Zd`ar Kaplice proved for the first time that TBEV is indeed subject to local evolution.

Spatiotemporal Pattern Formation in the Oscillatory Electro-Oxidation of Sulfide on a Platinum Disk

Spatiotemporal pattern formation in the electrocatalytic oxidation of sulfide on a platinum disk is investigated using electrochemical methods and a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera simultaneously. The system is characterized by different oscillatory regions spread over a wide potential range. An additional series resistor and a large electrode area facilitate observation of multiple regions of kinetic instabilities along the current/potential curve. Spatiotemporal patterns on the working electrode, such as fronts, pulses, spirals, twinkling eyes, labyrinthine stripes, and alternating synchronized deposition and dissolution, are observed at different operating conditions of series resistance and sweep rate.

Organização administrativa brasileira: quadro atual e propostas acerca da estruturação de entidades vocacionais ao desenvolvimento de políticas de estado, não subordinadas ao poder público central

o objeto da presente pesquisa é evidenciar o padrão de Estado Regulador brasileiro, sua complexidade e o modelo adotado, em parte, na década de 90, para a sua implementação, notadamente com a criação de algumas autarquias especiais dotadas de autonomia funcional diferenciada em relação ao Poder Público central. Examinando os motivos e a forma adotada para a estruturação dessas entidades reguladoras, no bojo de uma tentativa de reformar a organização administrativa, sob a forma gerencial, pretende-se analisar se esse caminho deve ser trilhado, ainda que em parte, para outros setores. A análise envolve a possível redefinição da divisão de tarefas e competências entre "entidades de Governo" e entes públicos cuja missão requer continuidade ("órgãos de Estado"), especialmente, nos casos de alternância do poder. Pretende-se contribuir para a estruturação de entidades vocacionadas para o desenvolvimento de políticas de Estado.

The breathing pattern and the ventilatory response to aquatic and aerial hypoxia and hypercarbia in the frog Pipa carvalhoi

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Central Única dos Trabalhadores (CUT) no embate das contrarreformas da previdência social: contraposição ou consenso?

The provident rights were results of intense fights in between the capital and work, claiming the interventions of the state for the creation of an ample social protection system. In Brazil the law, Providence Social mark, dated 1923, from then on, the advances and extensions were many, of this diverse categories of politics. Mean while, in the 1990 s, the Brazilian government adopted the examples of other developed countries, the new pattern that hinted the realization of substantial changes on the states purpose, the reached rights and the proper organization of working classes. For the Social Providence, the principal loses turned out in 1998 and 2003; respectively in FHC governments and Lula, with the realization of two counter reforms that restricted the provident rights and motivated the privatization of public providence. In the scenery, the CUT, one of the representative organizations from working classes, founded in 1983, that has always itself with changed direction, from fighting to negotiating. This inflection determined the proposition of the center before the offers of the counter reforms, of Social Providence. The present work has the objective to analyze the social politic content of the fights from Brazilian union movement in the period of the conquests and disassembled rights and, to analyze the proposition, acting and offers from CUT in the counter reform period from Providence in the Government FHC and Lula. To perform this study beyond the essential bibliographical revision to found and deepen the subject, we use, the documental search through the internet pages, resolutions, informations and others publications from CUT. Using CUT in the governments worked in an elegant way, the FHC government against-reforms, showed itself through diverse actions, even though they didn t have homogeneous inside, contrary the neoliberalists politicians from this government, also the offers and precaution changers. While during the reign of Lula it shoved itself priority negociative and propositive

CDHI promoter hypermethylation and E-cadherin protein expression in infiltrating breast cancer

Background: the E-cadherin gene (CDH1) maps, at chromosome 16q22.1, a region often associated with loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in human breast cancer. LOH at this site is thought to lead to loss of function of this tumor suppressor gene and was correlated with decreased disease-free survival, poor prognosis, and metastasis. Differential CpG island methylation in the promoter region of the CDH1 gene might be an alternative way for the loss of expression and function of E-cadherin, leading to loss of tissue integrity, an essential step in tumor progression.Methods: the aim of our study was to assess, by Methylation-Specific Polymerase Chain Reaction (MSP), the methylation pattern of the CDH1 gene and its possible correlation with the expression of E-cadherin and other standard immunohistochemical parameters (Her-2, ER, PgR, p53, and K-67) in a series of 79 primary breast cancers ( 71 infiltrating ductal, 5 infiltrating lobular, 1 metaplastic, 1 apocrine, and 1 papillary carcinoma).Results: CDH1 hypermethylation was observed in 72% of the cases including 52/71 ductal, 4/5 lobular carcinomas and 1 apocrine carcinoma. Reduced levels of E-cadherin protein were observed in 85% of our samples. Although not statistically significant, the levels of E-cadherin expression tended to diminish with the CDH1 promoter region methylation. In the group of 71 ductal cancinomas, most of the cases of showing CDH1 hypermethylation also presented reduced levels of expression of ER and PgR proteins, and a possible association was observed between CDH1 methylation and ER expression ( p = 0.0301, Fisher's exact test). However, this finding was not considered significant after Bonferroni correction of p-value.Conclusion: Our preliminary findings suggested that abnormal CDH1 methylation occurs in high frequencies in infiltrating breast cancers associated with a decrease in E-cadherin expression in a subgroup of cases characterized by loss of expression of other important genes to the mammary carcinogenesis process, probably due to the disruption of the mechanism of maintenance of DNA methylation in tumoral cells.