Distribution and eradication of an exotic tephritid fruit fly in Australia: Relevance of invasion theory

Data from the eradication of the incursion of Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Dipt.: Tephritidae) in Australia (1995-1998) are used to assess the significance of various aspects of invasion theory, including the influence of towns on establishment, influence of propagule pressure on the pattern of establishment, and the existence of source-sink dynamics. Because there were no sentinel traps in place, considerable spread had occurred before the eradication campaign started. The distribution of fly density around the epicentre in the town of Cairns and a transect along the main traffic routes to the north and south fitted a Cauchy model with a tail having the same slope as a power model with an exponent of -2.4 extending to 160 km. The Cauchy model indicated that 50% of the flies on the transect would have occurred within 3.2 km of the epicentre, 90% within 13.2 km, and 99% within 60 km. The two major satellites at Mareeba (35 km from the epicentre in Cairns) and Mossman (65 km) were not used for the transect data and had respectively 15 and 30 times the density predicted by the model. The proportion of traps that caught flies (a measure of site occupancy) fell with distance from the epicentre. B. papayae was trapped consistently on only three of the 16 rainforest transects that were surveyed and these were relatively close to urban areas where eradication efforts were intense. Despite there being no eradication effort in the rainforest, the trends to extinction were similar to those in adjacent areas. The strategy of initially concentrating eradication efforts on the core and major satellites while maintaining a quarantine barrier at the airport and the boundaries of the infested area appears to be the key to the containment and rapid eradication of the incursion.

Chromolaena odorata (L.) King and Robinson (Asteraceae)

Chromolaena, or Siam weed, is a serious problem in several tropical and sub-tropical areas around the world. In our own region, it is a serious weed in New Guinea, East Timor and Indonesia and is also under an eradication regime in North Queensland. The chapter summarises current knowledge about the taxonomy, biology, distribution, ecology, impacts and control of the weed. Biological control has been a major multinational initiative against this weed in recent years and these efforts are described in some detail. Interestingly agents have not been universally effective because of weed biotype differences and climate. Considerable success has been achieved in New Guinea, principally with the tephritid fly Cecidocares connex and by the efforts of Michael Day, Rachel McFadyen and Graham Donnelly from Alan Fletcher Research Station.

Weed spread prevention: simple activities for field operations.

This paper discusses how spread of weeds can be minimised by improved knowledge of the weed’s ecology and dispersal, and by better surveillance and treatment methods. Undertaking simple prevention activities reduces the risk of spreading weeds with minimal costs to projects and they noted that field staff and researchers can inadvertently become vectors of weed spread if they do not take adequate precautions. The authors describe several techniques that can be adopted and reference their observations to the eradication program for Siam weed, Chromolaena odorata.

Processes leading to the detection of tropical weed infestations during an eradication program.

The authors identify and track processes that have resulted in the detection of six tropical weeds targeted for eradication. The habitats and distributions of these species make detection by field officers and members of the public more likely than targeted searches. The eradication program is increasing the scope of detection processes by conducting and documenting activities to improve weed recognition amongst public, government and industry stakeholders.

Progress towards the eradication of mikania vine (Mikania micrantha) and limnocharis (Limnocharis flava) in northern Australia.

To eradicate a weed invasion, its extent must be delimited and each infestation must be extirpated. Measures for both of these criteria are utilized to assess the progress of current eradication programs targeting mikania vine and limnocharis in northern Australia. The known infested area for each species is less than 5 ha and has remained largely static for the last 3 or more years against a backdrop of refined and enhanced detection methods. This suggests that delimitation has been approached, if not achieved. Different methods of detection have their places, relative to the stage of the program and the spatial distribution of infestations. Although all known infestations of both species are effectively monitored and controlled, ongoing emergence from persistent seed banks limits progress towards the extirpation of infestations to a slow, but measurable, rate. Nomenclature: Glyphosate. N-phosphonomethyl)glycine; fluroxypyr, [(4-amino-3,5-dichloro-6-fluoro-2-pyridinyl)oxy]acetic acid; limnocharis, Limnocharis flava (L.) Buchenau LIFL5; mikania vine (mile-a-minute), Mikania micrantha Kunth MIKMI.

Seed production and maturation of Limnocharis flava (L.) Buchenau in the field and glasshouse.

The aquatic herb Limnocharis flava, native to tropical America, is the target of an eradication program in Queensland but little is known about its reproductive biology. Their field and glasshouse studies showed that seedlings exhibited relatively high survival (64%) and that fruits containing over 1000 seeds could be produced on young plants within 46 days, at any time of the year. Mature fruits, follicles and seeds were also buoyant. The authors findings were incorporated into the eradication program and influenced the frequency of infestation monitoring.

Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests

Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes.

Evaluating progress in weed eradication programs

Evaluating progress towards eradication is critically important because weed eradication programs are very expensive and may take more than 10 years to complete. The degree of confidence that can be placed in any measure of eradication progress is a function of the effort that has been invested in finding new infestations and in monitoring known infestations. Determining eradication endpoints is particularly difficult, since plants may be extremely difficult to detect when at low densities and it is virtually impossible to demonstrate seed bank exhaustion. Recent work suggests that an economic approach to this problem should be adopted. They propose some rules of thumb to determine whether to continue an eradication program or switch to an alternative management strategy.

Progress towards the eradication of three melastome shrub species from northern Australian rainforests

To eradicate a weed incursion, its extent must be delimited and each infestation extirpated. Measures for delimitation and extirpation are utilized to assess the progress of eradication programs currently targeting three melastome shrub species (Clidemia hirta, Miconia nervosa and M. racemosa) in north-eastern Australia. The main infested area for each species was determined during the year after initial detection, but expanded surveys have led to the discovery of isolated, smaller outlying patches. Programs are refining survey methods (including search frequency) to prevent reproduction. Weed incursions that are limited to single infestations represent a prime opportunity for eradication. However, population and dispersal data indicate that eradication will require an ongoing investment for some time for all three species. Highly persistent seed and dispersal by frugivores suggest that eradication may prove extraordinarily difficult should any of these species spread or be discovered at more locations.

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

Eradication of invasive species: progress and emerging issues in the 21st century

At an international conference on the eradication of invasive species, held in 2001, Simberloff (2002) noted some past successes in eradication—from the global eradication of smallpox (Fenner et al. 1988) to the many successful eradications of populations (mostly mammals) from small islands (e.g. Veitch and Bell 1990; Burbidge and Morris 2002). However, he cautioned that we needed to be more ambitious and aim higher if we are to prevent and reverse the growing threat of the homogenization of global biodiversity. In this chapter we review how the management strategy of eradication—the permanent removal of entire discrete populations—has contributed to the stretch in goals advocated by Simberloff. We also discuss impediments to eradication success, and summarize how some of the lessons learnt during this process have contributed to the other strategies (prevention and sustained control) that are required to manage the wider threat posed by invasive alien species. We concentrate on terrestrial vertebrates and weeds (our areas of expertise), but touch on terrestrial invertebrates and marine and freshwater species in the discussion on emerging issues, to illustrate some of the different constraints these taxa and habitats impose on the feasibility of eradication.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Is the distribution of Fiji leaf gall in Australian sugarcane explained by variation in the vector Perkinsiella saccharicida?

Fiji leaf gall (FLG) is an important virally induced disease in Australian sugarcane. It is confined to southern canegrowing areas, despite its vector, the delphacid planthopper Perkinsiella saccharicida, occurring in all canegrowing areas of Queensland and New South Wales. This disparity between distributions could be a result of successful containment of the disease through quarantine and/or geographical barriers, or because northern Queensland populations of Perkinsiella may be poorer vectors of the disease. These hypotheses were first tested by investigating variation in the ITS2 region of the rDNA fragment among eastern Australian and overseas populations of Perkinsiella. The ITS2 sequences of the Western Australian P. thompsoni and the Fijian P. vitiensis were distinguishable from those of P. saccharicida and there was no significant variation among the 26 P. saccharicida populations. Reciprocal crosses of a northern Queensland and a southern Queensland population of P. saccharicida were fertile, so they may well be conspecific. Single vector transmission experiments showed that a population of P. saccharicida from northern Queensland had a higher vector competency than either of two southern Queensland populations. The frequency of virus acquisition in the vector populations was demonstrated to be important in the vector competency of the planthopper. The proportion of infected vectors that transmitted the virus to plants was not significantly different among the populations tested. This study shows that the absence of FLG from northern Queensland is not due to a lack of vector competency of the northern population of P. saccharicida.

Weed eradication - an economic perspective

There has been recent interest in determining the upper limits to the feasibility of weed eradication. Although a number of disparate factors determine the success of an eradication program, ultimately eradication feasibility must be viewed in the context of the amount of investment that can be made. The latter should reflect the hazard posed by an invasion, with greater investment justified by greater threats. In simplest terms, the effort (and hence investment) to achieve weed eradication comprises the detection effort required to delimit an invasion plus the search and control effort required to prevent reproduction until extirpation occurs over the entire infested area. The difficulty of estimating the required investment at the commencement of a weed eradication program (as well as during periodic reviews) is a serious problem. Bioeconomics show promise in determining the optimal approach to managing weed invasions, notwithstanding ongoing difficulties in estimating the costs and benefits of eradication and alternative invasion management strategies. A flexible approach to the management of weed invasions is needed, allowing for the adoption of another strategy when it becomes clear that the probability of eradication is low, owing to resourcing or intractable technical issues. Whether the considerable progress that has been achieved towards eradication of the once massive witchweed invasion can be duplicated for other weeds of agricultural systems will depend to a large extent upon investment (. $250 million over 50 yr in this instance). Weeds of natural ecosystems seem destined to remain more difficult eradication targets for a variety of reasons, including higher impedance to eradication, more difficulty in valuing the benefits arising from eradication, and possibly less willingness to pay from society at large.