Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Indoor microclimate in a South Africa School: impact of indoor environmental factors

Demand for good indoor air quality is increasing as people recorgnise the risks to their health and productivity from indoor pollutants. There is a tendency to reduce ventilation rates to ensure energy conservation in buildings; in this instance schools. However, evidence reviewed shows that this can be detrimental to health and wellbeing in schools because of the learner density within a small area (1.8 - 2.4m2/person); eventually indicating that carbon dioxide (CO2) levels can rise to very high levels in classroom occupancy periods. A preliminary study to investigate the impact of indoor environmental parameters has been performed in a secondary school classroom in Pretoria, South Africa. Factors monitored include temperature, relative humidity, lighting, air velocities and CO2 concentrations. From the results low air velocities are recorded (i.e. 0.1-0.3m/s) impacting on the retention of CO2 build-up in the classroom. Results presented in this paper are the initial findings of ongoing research.

A carbon isotope challenge to the snowball Earth

The snowball Earth hypothesis postulates that the planet was entirely covered by ice for millions of years in the Neoproterozoic era, in a self-enhanced glaciation caused by the high albedo of the ice-covered planet. In a hard-snowball picture, the subsequent rapid unfreezing resulted from an ultra-greenhouse event attributed to the buildup of volcanic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during glaciation(1). High partial pressures of atmospheric CO(2) (p(CO2); from 20,000 to 90,000 p. p. m. v.) in the aftermath of the Marinoan glaciation (similar to 635 Myr ago) have been inferred from both boron and triple oxygen isotopes(2,3). These p(CO2) values are 50 to 225 times higher than present-day levels. Here, we re-evaluate these estimates using paired carbon isotopic data for carbonate layers that cap Neoproterozoic glacial deposits and are considered to record post-glacial sea level rise(1). The new data reported here for Brazilian cap carbonates, together with previous ones for time-equivalent units(4-8), provide p(CO2) estimates lower than 3,200 p. p. m. v.-and possibly as low as the current value of similar to 400 p. p. m. v. Our new constraint, and our reinterpretation of the boron and triple oxygen isotope data, provide a completely different picture of the late Neoproterozoic environment, with low atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen that are inconsistent with a hard-snowball Earth.

Leaf heliotropism in Styrax camporum Pohl from the Brazilian cerrado: distinct gas exchange and leaf structure, but similar leaf temperature and water relations

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Antioxidant defenses and biochemical changes in the neotropical fish pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus: Responses to single and combined copper and hypercarbia exposure

This study investigated the potentially detrimental effects of copper and elevated aquatic CO2 (hypercarbia), alone or in combination, on pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus. Fish were exposed for 48 h to control (no copper addition in normocarbia), to 400 mu g Cu2+L-1, to hypercarbic (1% CO2; PCO2=6.9 mm Hg) water and to 400 mu g Cu2+L-1+ hypercarbia. In liver the single factors caused an increase in lipid hydroperoxide concentration that was not observed when the factors were combined. Copper exposure elicited increased hepatic superoxide dismutase activity, irrespective of aquatic CO2 level. On the other hand, the effects of copper on hepatic glutathione peroxidase activity were dependent on water CO2 levels. The two stressors combined did not affect hepatic catalase activity. Hypercarbic water caused a decline in plasma glucose concentration, but this was not observed when hypercarbia was combined with copper exposure. Copper caused a decrease in branchial Na+/K+-ATPase activity that was independent of water CO2 level. Copper caused an increase in branchial metallothionein concentration that was independent of water CO2 level. Thus, branchial metallothionein and Na+/K+-ATPase were effective biomarkers of copper exposure that were not affected by water CO2 level. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Der Austausch von Carbonylsulfid (COS) zwischen Vegetation und Atmosphäre unter erhöhter CO 2-Umgebungskonzentration

The responses of photosynthetic plant gas exchange, COS uptake and carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity were studied on Quercus ilex (Holm oak), and beech Fagus sylvatica L

Influenza della sostanza organica nella diagenesi precoce dei sedimenti del mare Adriatico e Ionio

Lo studio dei processi biogeochimici che avvengono all’interfaccia acqua-sedimento riveste grande importanza per comprendere quali fattori ambientali siano responsabili di un eventuale modifica nel bilancio del carbonio organico e di altri elementi maggiori o minori e può` fornire un' indicazione su quali siano le aree più sensibili a tali processi. In questo studio sono stati analizzati i meccanismi che guidano la mineralizzazione della sostanza organica in aree caratterizzate da differenti condizioni idrodinamiche, batimetriche e trofiche nel Mediterraneo centrale. In particolare sono state prelevate carote di sedimento e analizzate le acque interstiziali in siti localizzati nell'Adriatico centro-meridionale, caratterizzati da basse profondità, alti tassi di sedimentazione e elevati apporti di sostanza organica, e in siti localizzati nello Ionio centro-settentrionale, caratterizzati da profondità crescenti, minori tassi di sedimentazione e ridotti apporti fluviali. L'analisi dei processi di degradazione della sostanza organica evidenzia differenze regionali tra il bacino adriatico e quello ionico: processi di mineralizzazione ossica e subossica appaiono intensi nei sedimenti adriatici, diversamente il bacino ionico appare caratterizzato principalmente da processi di degradazione ossica della sostanza organica. Inoltre, relativamente ai flussi bentici di Carbonio Inorganico Disciolto (DIC) flussi inversi sono stati registrati nei due bacini: i sedimenti adriatici si comportano come sourse di DIC, mentre i sedimenti Ionici si comportano come dei sink di DIC suggerendo una possibile precipitazione di carbonati nel bacino ionico.

End-tidal CO(2). An important parameter for a correct interpretation in functional brain studies using speech tasks

The aim was to investigate the effect of different speech tasks, i.e. recitation of prose (PR), alliteration (AR) and hexameter (HR) verses and a control task (mental arithmetic (MA) with voicing of the result on end-tidal CO2 (PETCO2), cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation. CO2 levels in the blood are known to strongly affect cerebral blood flow. Speech changes breathing pattern and may affect CO2 levels. Measurements were performed on 24 healthy adult volunteers during the performance of the 4 tasks. Tissue oxygen saturation (StO2) and absolute concentrations of oxyhemoglobin ([O2Hb]), deoxyhemoglobin ([HHb]) and total hemoglobin ([tHb]) were measured by functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) and PETCO2 by a gas analyzer. Statistical analysis was applied to the difference between baseline before the task, 2 recitation and 5 baseline periods after the task. The 2 brain hemispheres and 4 tasks were tested separately. A significant decrease in PETCO2 was found during all 4 tasks with the smallest decrease during the MA task. During the recitation tasks (PR, AR and HR) a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decrease occurred for StO2 during PR and AR in the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) and during AR and HR in the left PFC. [O2Hb] decreased significantly during PR, AR and HR in both hemispheres. [HHb] increased significantly during the AR task in the right PFC. [tHb] decreased significantly during HR in the right PFC and during PR, AR and HR in the left PFC. During the MA task, StO2 increased and [HHb] decreased significantly during the MA task. We conclude that changes in breathing (hyperventilation) during the tasks led to lower CO2 pressure in the blood (hypocapnia), predominantly responsible for the measured changes in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that PETCO2 should be monitored during functional brain studies investigating speech using neuroimaging modalities, such as fNIRS, fMRI to ensure a correct interpretation of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation.

Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions

Recent downward revisions in the climate response to rising CO2 levels, and opportunities for reducing non-CO2 climate warming, have both been cited as evidence that the case for reducing CO2 emissions is less urgent than previously thought. Evaluating the impact of delay is complicated by the fact that CO2 emissions accumulate over time, so what happens after they peak is as relevant for long-term warming as the size and timing of the peak itself. Previous discussions have focused on how the rate of reduction required to meet any given temperature target rises asymptotically the later the emissions peak. Here we focus on a complementary question: how fast is peak CO2-induced warming increasing while mitigation is delayed, assuming no increase in rates of reduction after the emissions peak? We show that this peak-committed warming is increasing at the same rate as cumulative CO2 emissions, about 2% per year, much faster than observed warming, independent of the climate response.

Central European hardwood trees in a high-CO 2 future: synthesis of an 8-year forest canopy CO 2 enrichment project

Rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 is not only changing the climate system but may also affect the biosphere directly through stimulation of plant growth and ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Although forest ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, experimental information on forest responses to rising CO2 is scarce, due to the sheer size of trees. Here, we present a synthesis of the only study world-wide where a diverse set of mature broadleaved trees growing in a natural forest has been exposed to future atmospheric CO2 levels (c. 550ppm) by free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE). We show that litter production, leaf traits and radial growth across the studied hardwood species remained unaffected by elevated CO2 over 8years. CO2 enrichment reduced tree water consumption resulting in detectable soil moisture savings. Soil air CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon both increased suggesting enhanced below-ground activity. Carbon release to the rhizosphere and/or higher soil moisture primed nitrification and nitrate leaching under elevated CO2; however, the export of dissolved organic carbon remained unaltered.Synthesis. Our findings provide no evidence for carbon-limitation in five central European hardwood trees at current ambient CO2 concentrations. The results of this long-term study challenge the idea of a universal CO2 fertilization effect on forests, as commonly assumed in climate-carbon cycle models.

Miocene-Pliocene record of Pollen, charcoal and carbon isotopes of plant waxes of ODP Hole 175-1081A

Modern savannah grasslands were established during the late Miocene and Pliocene (8-3 million years ago). In the tropics, grasslands are dominated by grasses that use the C4 photosynthetic pathway, rather than the C3 pathway. The C4 pathway is better adapted to warm, dry and low-CO2 conditions, leading to suggestions that declining atmospheric CO2 levels, increasing aridity and enhanced rainfall seasonality allowed grasses using this pathway to expand during this interval. The role of fire in C4 expansion may have been underestimated. Here we use analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and the stable isotopic composition of plant waxes from a marine sediment core off the coast of Namibia to reconstruct the relative timing of changes in plant composition and fire activity for the late Miocene and Pliocene. We find that in southwestern Africa, the expansion of C4 grasses occurred alongside increasing aridity and enhanced fire activity. During further aridification in the Pliocene, the proportion of C4 grasses in the grasslands increased, while the grassland contracted and deserts and semi-deserts expanded. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that ecological disturbance by fire was an essential feedback mechanism leading to the establishment of C4 grasslands in the Miocene and Pliocene.

Age models and stable isotope ratios from the Mid-Miocene

Mid-Miocene pelagic sedimentary sections can be correlated using intermediate and high resolution oxygen and carbon isotopic records of benthic foraminifera. Precision of a few tens of thousands of years is readily achievable at sites with high sedimentation rates, for example, Deep Sea Drilling Project sites 289 and 574. The mid-Miocene carbon isotope records are characterized by an interval of high d13C values between 17 and 13.5 Ma (the Monterey Excursion of Vincent and Berger 1985) upon which are superimposed a series of periodic or quasi-periodic fluctuations in d13C values. These fluctuations have a period of approximately 440 kyr, suggestive of the 413 kyr cycle predicted by Milankovitch theory. Vincent and Berger proposed that the Monterey Excursion was the result of increased organic carbon burial in continental margins sediments. The increased d13C values (called 13C maxima) superimposed on the generally high mid-Miocene signal coincide with increases in d18O values suggesting that periods of cooling and/or ice buildup were associated with exceptionally rapid burial of organic carbon and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels. It is likely that during the Monterey Excursion the ocean/atmosphere system became progressively more sensitive to small changes in insolation, ultimately leading to major cooling of deep water and expansion of continental ice. We have assigned an absolute chronology, based on biostratigraphic and magneto-biostratigraphic datum levels, to the isotope stratigraphy and have used that chronology to correlate unconformities, seismic reflectors, carbonate minima, and dissolution intervals. Intervals of sediment containing 13C maxima are usually better preserved than the overlying and underlying sediments, indicating that the d13C values of TCO2 in deep water and the corrosiveness of seawater are inversely correlated. This again suggests that the 13C maxima were associated with rapid burial of organic carbon and reduced levels of atmospheric CO2. The absolute chronology we have assigned to the isotopic record indicates that the major mid-Miocene deepwater cooling/ice volume expansion took 2 m.y. and was not abrupt as had been reported previously. The cooling appears abrupt at many sites because the interval is characterized by a number of dissolution intervals. The cooling was not monotonic, and the 2 m.y. interval included an episode of especially rapid cooling as well as a brief return to warmer conditions before the final phase of the cooling period. The increase in d18O values of benthic foraminifera between 14.9 and 12.9 Ma was greatest at deeper water sites and at sites closest to Antarctica. The data suggest that the d18O value of seawater increased by no more than about 1.1 per mil during this interval and that the remainder of the change in benthic d18O values resulted from cooling in Antarctic regions of deepwater formation. Equatorial planktonic foraminifera from sites 237 and 289 exhibit a series of 0.4 per mil steplike increases in d13C values. Only one of these increases in planktonic d13C is correlated with any of the features in the mid-Miocene benthic carbon isotope record.

Geochemistry of Late Paleocene thermal maximum sediments

The late Paleocene thermal maximum (LPTM) was a dramatic, short-term global warming event that occurred ~55 Ma. Warming of high-latitude surface waters and global deep waters during the LPTM has been well documented; however, current data suggest that subtropical and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not change during the event. Conventional paradigms of global climate change, such as CO2-induced greenhouse warming, predict greater warming in the high latitudes than in the tropics or subtropics but, nonetheless, cannot account for the stable tropical/subtropical SSTs. We measured the stable isotope values of well-preserved late Paleocene to early Eocene planktonic foraminifera from South Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 527 to evaluate the subtropical response to the climatic and environmental changes of the LPTM. Planktonic foraminiferal d18O values at Site 527 decrease by ~0.94 per mil from pre-LPTM to excursion values, providing the first evidence for subtropical warming during the LPTM. We estimate that subtropical South Atlantic SSTs warmed by at least ~1°-4°C, on the basis of possible changes in evaporation and precipitation. The new evidence for subtropical SST warming supports a greenhouse mechanism for global warming involving elevated atmospheric CO2 levels.

Isotope ratios of osmiun, carbon and oxygen of Miocene sediments and benthic foraminifera

Seawater 187Os/188Os ratios for the Middle Miocene were reconstructed by measuring the 187Os/188Os ratios of metalliferous carbonates from the Pacific (DSDP 598) and Atlantic (DSDP 521) oceans. Atlantic and Pacific 187Os/188Os measurements are nearly indistinguishable and are consistent with previously published Os isotope records from Pacific cores. The Atlantic data reported here provide the first direct evidence that the long-term sedimentary 187Os/188Os record reflects whole-ocean changes in the Os isotopic composition of seawater. The Pacific and the Atlantic Os measurements confirm a long-term 0.01/Myr increase in marine 187Os/188Os ratios that began no later than 16 Ma. The beginning of the Os isotopic increase coincided with a decrease in the rate of increase of marine 87Sr/86Sr ratios at 16 Ma. A large increase of 1? in benthic foraminiferal delta18O values, interpreted to reflect global cooling and ice sheet growth, began approximately 1 million years later at 14.8 Ma, and the long-term shift toward lower bulk carbonate delta13C values began more than 2 Myr later around 13.6 Ma. The post-16 Ma increase in marine 187Os/188Os ratios was most likely forced by weathering of radiogenic materials, either old sediments or sialic crust with a sedimentary protolith. We consider two possible Miocene-specific geologic events that can account for both this increase in marine 187Os/188Os ratios and also nearly constant 87Sr/86Sr ratios: (1) the first glacial erosion of sediment-covered cratons in the Northern Hemisphere; (2) the exhumation of the Australian passive margin-New Guinea arc system. The latter event offers a mechanism, via enhanced availability of soluble Ca and Mg silicates in the arc terrane, for the maintenance of assumed low CO2 levels after 15 Ma. The temporal resolution (three samples/Myr) of the 187Os/188Os record from Site 598, for which a stable isotope stratigraphy was also constructed, is significantly higher than that of previously published records. These high resolution data suggest oscillations with amplitudes of 0.01 to 0.02 and periods of around 1 Myr. Although variations in the 187Os/188Os record of this magnitude can be easily resolved analytically, this higher frequency signal must be verified at other sites before it can be safely interpreted as global in extent. However, the short-term 187Os/188Os variations may correlate inversely with short-term benthic foraminiferal delta18O and bulk carbonate delta13C variations that reflect glacioeustatic events.

Early Oligocene continental climate ofthe Paleogene Basin in Hungary and Slovenia

This paper concentrates on the Early Oligocene palaeoclimate of the southern part of Eastern and Central Europe and gives a detailed climatological analysis, combined with leaf-morphological studies and modelling of the palaeoatmospheric CO2 level using stomatal and d13 C data. Climate data are calculated using the Coexistence Approach for Kiscellian floras of the Palaeogene Basin (Hungary and Slovenia) and coeval assemblages from Central and Southeastern Europe. Potential microclimatic or habitat variations are considered using morphometric analysis of fossil leaves from Hungarian, Slovenian and Italian floras. Reconstruction of CO2 is performed by applying a recently introduced mechanistic model. Results of climate analysis indicate distinct latitudinal and longitudinal climate patterns for various variables which agree well with reconstructed palaeogeography and vegetation. Calculated climate variables in general suggest a warm and frost-free climate with low seasonal variation of temperature. A difference in temperature parameters is recorded between localities from Central and Southeastern Europe, manifested mainly in the mean temperature of the coldest month. Results of morphometric analysis suggest microclimatic or habitat difference among studied floras. Extending the scarce information available on atmospheric CO2 levels during the Oligocene, we provide data for a well-defined time-interval. Reconstructed atmospheric CO2 levels agree well with threshold values for Antarctic ice sheet growth suggested by recent modelling studies. The successful application of the mechanistic model for the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 levels raises new possibitities for future climate inference from macro-flora studies.