基于广义模型和分类回归树的中国常见树种地理分布模拟研究

研究植被、物种分布与环境的关系一直是生态学中的重点。长期以来，在全球变化与陆地生态系统的研究中，主要研究重点是对大尺度植被分布的模拟和预测，并建立了大量的气候－植被分布关系模型。而对于物种潜在分布的模拟和预测，国内外相关的研究较少。近年来，随着统计技术和地理信息系统的发展，用于预测物种分布的统计模型技术得到了迅速的发展。统计模型技术已被广泛应用于生物地理分布、植物群落、生物多样性、气候变化影响评估等方面。 本论文基于当前在物种分布研究中应用广泛的广义线性模型、广义加法模型及分类回归树3种统计模型技术，对我国常见树种的地理分布进行模拟分析，并比较不同模型模拟精度的优劣，将模拟精度较高的模型应用于预测未来气候情景下我国几种主要树种的未来潜在地理分布。 基于建立的广义线性模型（GLM）、二次项逐步回归广义线性模型（SGLM）、广义加法模型（GAM）和分类回归树（CART）4个模型对我国20种常见树种地理分布进行模拟，结果表明，4个模型均有较高的模拟精度。GAM的模拟精度最高;添加二次项并进行逐步回归有效的提高了GLM的模拟精度;CART是一种基于规则的模型技术，模拟结果比GLM稍好，比GAM略差。 对不同树种的模拟分析表明，4个模型对于主要分布在暖温带落叶阔叶林区域的油松、辽东栎分布的模拟结果较差;GLM对分布在温带针阔混交林中红松、蒙古栎、胡桃楸和糠椴的模拟结果不太理想;4个模型对分布在中国亚热带常绿阔叶林区域的树种均表现出较高的模拟精度;对广布种也表现出很高的模拟精度。 结合地理信息系统，以地图形式将青冈、油松的模拟结果表示出来。结果表明：地理信息系统直观的反映出了模型模拟结果差异。4个模型均能很好模拟青冈的分布，且模拟结果接近;而对油松分布模拟结果4个模型均不甚理想，以GLM最差。这些结果与模型模拟评估结果相吻合。 在未来气候变化情景下，基于4个模型模拟结果优劣，以我国三种主要造林树种马尾松、油松、红松和两种常见树种青冈、蒙古栎为研究对象，分析其未来变化趋势。结果表明，未来气候变化情景下，对于马尾松而言，4个模型均预测马尾松在基本保持原有分布的基础上，其未来潜在分布区域均有所扩大，且有向西和向北扩展的趋势;对于油松而言，基于GLM、SGLM和GAM3个模型，油松的未来潜在分布除有北移的趋势外，其分布区还将向东北和西南两个方向扩展;对于红松而言，基于SGLM、GAM和CART3个模型的预测结果较为接近，即红松的未来潜在分布区域将有所减少;对蒙古栎而言，4个模型预测蒙古栎未来分布均将向西扩展;对青冈而言，4个模型预测青冈能基本保持其原有分布区，并向西和向北扩展，其中CART预测结果还表明，青冈在广东南部及广西南部的分布区域将消失。

兴安落叶松林分布及生产力对气候变化的响应研究

处于北半球高纬度地区的环球北方森林是大气CO2的重要碳汇。但是，研究表明未来气候变化将使全球北方林北移，并由目前的大气CO2碳汇转为碳源。兴安落叶松林主要分布在大兴安岭林区，是我国寒温带针叶林区北段的地带性植被，也是环球北方森林的组成部分，位于我国对全球变化敏感的区域，是森林生态系统研究的重点。 本文以温暖指数（WI），寒冷指数（CI），湿润指数（WI），一月最低温度，七月最高温度和年降水量等环境变量为因子，比较分析了广义线性模型（GLM），逐步回归广义线性模型（SGLM），广义加法模型（GAM）和分类回归树（CART）模型对兴安落叶松地理分布的模拟效果。并结合全球气候模式预估的未来情景对未来气候条件下的分布进行了预估。同时，利用搜集到的生产力及相应的气候数据，在比较分析4个区域植被气候生产力模型对兴安落叶松林生产力模拟效果的基础上，选择模拟效果和结构简单的区域植被气候生产力模型，引入林龄这一生物因子，建立了兴安落叶松林生物气候生产力模型，探讨了兴安落叶松林生产力对气候变化的响应。结果表明，在广义线性模型，逐步回归广义线性模型，广义加法模型和分类回归树模型4个模型中，以广义加法模型模拟兴安落叶松地理分布最为准确。据此，结合未来气候变化情景模拟了兴安落叶松分布。在SRES-A2排放方案下，2020年兴安落叶松适宜分布面积将减少58.1％，2050年适宜分布面积进一步减少99.7％;在SRES-B2排放方案下，兴安落叶松适宜分布面积到2020年将减少66.4％，到2050年进一步减少97.9％。两种排放方案下，到2100年兴安落叶松适宜分布区将完全从我国消失。 4个区域植被气候生产力模型中，以综合模型模拟结果与实测值相关性最好，Thornthwaite memorial模型次之，但综合模型需要参数较多，且参数较难获取，因此选用Thornthwaite memorial模型来模拟兴安落叶松林气候生产力。在区域植被气候生产力模型的基础上，引入林龄这一生物因子，能显著提高区域植被气候生产力模型的模拟精度，从而建立了兴安落叶松林生物气候生产力模型。运用所建的兴安落叶松林生物气候生产力模型，结合未来气候情景预测，对不同林龄的兴安落叶松林生产力对气候变化的响应进行了研究，结果表明，未来气候变化下，不同林龄的兴安落叶松林生产力均有不同程度的增加。

Bombinakinin M gene associated peptide, a novel bioactive peptide from skin secretions of the toad Bombina maxima

A novel 28-amino acid peptide, termed bombinakinin-GAP, was purified and characterized from skin secretions of the toad Bombina maxima. Its primary structure was established as DMYEIKQYKTAHGRPPICAPGEQCPIWV-NH2, in which two cysteines form a disulfide bond. A FASTA search of SWISS-PROT databank detected a 32% sequence identity between the sequences of the peptide and a segment of rat cocaine- and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART). Intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) administration of the peptide induced a significant decrease in food intake in rats, suggesting that it played a role in the control of feeding by brain. Analysis of its cDNA structure revealed that this peptide is coexpressed with bombinakinin M, a bradykinin-related peptide from the same toad. Bombinakinin-GAP appears to be the first example of a novel class of bioactive peptides from amphibian skin, which may be implicated in feeding behavior. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

两个冠醚分子在简正坐标分析及NRCC程序在微机上的移植

本文用加拿大国立研究院(National Research Council of Canada) Fuhrer等人编制的FORTRAN语言程序（以下简称NRCC程序），对两个冠醚类化合物进行了简正坐标分析，这两个化合物分子是二氧六环(C_4H_8O_2)和12－冠－4(C_8H_(16)O_4)。作者用Synder和Zerbi提出的一般价力场，计算了二氧六环的36个简正振动频率，精化四次后的结果误差为14.04 cm~(-1)，得到了二氧六环的精化力场和势能分析矩阵；做了12－冠－4－的中红外光谱(3200-5000cm~(-1))。远红外光谱(500-70cm~(-1))和拉曼光谱(3200-50 cm~(-1)，从而归属出12－冠－4的78个简正振动频率实验值；利用二氧六环的精化力场作为初始力场，计算了12－冠－4的简正振动频率，对78个简正振动频率进行了精化计算，精化三次后的结果误差为13.99 cm~(-1)，精化后得到12－冠－4的精化力场和势能分布矩阵；将NRCC程序以BASIC语言移至TRS-80微型机上，对二氧六环进行了计算，结果良好，首次给出二氧六环一般价力场的势能分布。一、对二氧六环的处理 二氧六环分子式C_4H_8O_2，合14个原子，有3N－6＝36个简正振动频率。分子结构系由二个乙氧基(-CH_2-CH_2-O-)单元组成的含有四个碳，两个氧的六元环，平衡态分子为椅式构象，属于C_(2h)点群，36个简正振动频率分为四个对称类Ag、Au、Bg和Bu，分布是：Ag 10个，Bg 8个，Au 9个，Bu9个。二氧六环的分子结构及坐标示意图见28而图5，定义了14个伸缩内坐标，26个弯曲内坐标，6个扭曲内坐标，共46个，C－C键长1.54A，C-O键长1.41 A，C－H键长1.096A，键角都用109°28'。用CART程序（NRCC程序之一）计算二氧六环14个原子的笛卡尔坐标，用GMAT程序（NRCC程序之二）计算其B矩阵和G矩阵，用FPERT程序（NRCC程序之三）计算其简正振动频率、精化力场，计算用一般价力场，引入V矩阵对称化，将46个坐标化为46个（内）对称坐标，10个多余坐标在FPERT程序计算中除去。二、对12－冠－4的处理 12－冠－4分子式C_8H_(16)O_4，含28个原子，共3N－6＝78个简正振动频率，分子结构为四个乙氧基(-CH_2-CH_2-O-)单元组成的含八个碳、四个氧的12元环，自由分子的12－冠－4属于C点群。结构数据引自Groth的X光衍射分数和坐标，自己编制了BASIC语言程度将分数坐标化为笛卡尔坐标，用GMAT程序计算B矩阵和G矩阵，FPERT程序计算78个简正振动频率、精化力场、计算势能分布矩阵，引入U矩阵将92个内坐标化为92个对称坐标，14个多余坐标在FPERT程序中自动除去。三、结果 势能分布矩阵给出分子的振动归属，对这两个冠醚类分子的3N－6个简正振动频率，可以划分为五个振动区域。1．C－H伸缩振动区（3000－2800 cm~(-1)） 在该区中，二氧六环有八个值：2974、2966、2854和2867 cm~(-1)各两个，12－冠－4有16个值：2935、2923、2915和2907 cm~(-1)各两个，2860 cm~(-1)8个，高于2900 cm~(-1)者为反对称伸缩振动，低于2900 cm~(-1)者为对称伸缩振动。2．亚甲基弯曲振动之一(1500-1400 cm~(-1)) 该区的主要振动是亚甲基剪式振动(Scissor)，其它振动小于10％二氧六环在该区有四个频率：1443、1461、1451和1457 cm~(-1)，12－冠－4有八个频率：1466、1450、1450和1405 cm~(-1)各两个。3．亚甲基弯曲振动区二(1400-1200 cm~(-1))该区的主要振动模式为亚甲基的颤动(wag)、卷曲(twist)和摆动(rock)振动，其它振动小于13％。二氧六环在该区有八个频率：1334、1303、1396、1216、1367、1264、1377和1296 cm~(-1)，12－冠－4有十六个频率：1388、1363、……1229 cm~(-1)（其中1288、1307cm~(-1)非简并，其余皆两重简并）。4．环的骨架伸缩振动区(1200-600 cm~(-1))该区振动模式复杂，除环的骨架伸缩振动外，还有亚甲基的wag、twist、rock以及环的骨架弯曲振动，而且这些振动的势能分布值都不小。二氧六环在该区有十一个频率，从1127至610 cm~(-1)，12－冠－4有二十个频率，从1135至184 cm~(-1)且大都是二重简并的。5．低频区(600-50cm~(-1))这两个分子在低频区的势能分布略有差别。二氧六环在该区有五个频率：503、486、427、276和224 cm~(-1)，主要振动模式为骨架弯曲振动和扭曲振动，C－O、C－C的扭曲振动在三个最低频率中分布占10－30％。12－冠－4在该区有18个频率，除570和547cm~(-1)处，都是二重简并的，六个最低频率的振动模式完全属于C－O、C－C键的扭曲振动，其它振动小于10％，所以200 cm~(-1)以下可称为12－冠－4的扭曲振动区，在600－200cm~(-1)之间的12个频率主要是骨架的弯曲振动，也有一定量的亚甲基wag、twist、rock振动。12－冠－4的简正坐标分析尚未有人做过。二氧六环的计算结果与Snyder和Zerbi的分析相吻合，12－冠－4和二氧六环两分子势能分布的相对一致性证明了对12－冠－4的简正坐标分析基本是正确的。本文比较了二分子的力常数和振动频率，探讨了环的大小对振动光谱的影响。四、NRCC程序简介 NRCC程序由CART、GMAT和FPERT三个程序组成，即可联一起运用，亦可分开独立进行运算。该程序功能强，所占内存大，适于大、中型计算机使用。CART程序之名字取自Cartisian Co-or-dinates的前四个字母，功能系由分子结构参数（键长、键角）计算分子内各原子的笛卡尔坐标。GMAT程序之名字取自G matrix的前四个字母，功能系由分子内各原子的笛卡尔坐标，原子质量和内坐标定义计算分子内各原子的坐标交换矩阵B和Wilson振动动能矩阵G。FPERT程序之名字取自F Perturbation的前五个字母，功能系由分子振动功能矩阵G、势能常数即力常数矩阵F计算分子的简正振动频率和势能分布矩阵，再通过实验频率精化势能矩阵F。NRCC程序可对含30个原子、60个内坐标的分子进行简正坐标分析，扩充后容量增大一倍。该程序可选用一般价力场(General Valence Force Field, 简称GVFF)和UBS力场(Urey-Bradley-Shimanouchi Force Field)，简称UBSFF或UBFF)。可选用对称化U矩阵，可自行决定力场精化次数和阻尼常数以限制精化结果的收敛性。五、NRCC程序在TRS－80微型机上移植试尝（该部分曾在第三届长春夏季化学讨论会上宣读）针对NRCC程序占内存空间大、难以在微型机上实现的情况，作者将NRCC程序改编为BASIC语言，改变程序的原来结构，形成一组BASIC语言程序：CART／BAS、GMAT／BAS和VIFR／BAS，改编后的BASIC程序在TRS－80微型机调试通过，TRS－80机字长8位，New Dos系统内存32K。改写后的程序只保持了原程序的基本原理，在内存，语句上改动很大，以适于微型机使用。数据在程序中直接嵌入，利于修改替换，且BASIC语言简单易学，便于操作。CART／BAS程序可计算含30个原子以内的分子的笛卡尔坐标，GMAT／BAS程序可计算含20个原子、45个内坐标的分子的G矩阵，VIFR／BAS程序可计算含15个原子的分子的简正振动频率。利用这组程序，作者以二氧六环分子为例做了一些试尝运算，误差14.4 cm~(-1)，相对误差1.8%，结果较理想。

最优控制具有非完整性的两轮驱动机器人小车

研究了移动机器人反馈控制问题．这里所考虑的机器人是一个两轮驱动的具有非完整性的移动机器人小车．考虑了笛卡儿空间中轨线跟踪问题的扩展．且表明只要参考小车保持运动，在虚设的参考小车位形周围的小车位形的稳定成为可能．提出了最优控制律并给出了仿真结果。

汉语韵律短语切分及语调降阶和下倾研究

Firstly, prosodic boundaries of 1991 common sentences were labeled based on speech perception experiment, relation between prosodic structure and syntactic structure was examined after immediate constituent analysis, an example of prosodic phrasing from text sentences was provided using CART. Then, using designed sentences, phenomena of downstep and declination in pitch downtrend of Chinese declarative sentences were examined, commonness and speciality of Chinese intonation were discussed. The main results of the study are: 1 The distribution patterns of prosodic phrase boundaries for different syntactic structures are different, and there is great freedom in prosodic chunking. The relation between syntactic structure and prosodic structure can only be discussed in statistical sense. 2 Besides of syntactic relation, the second most important factor which influences prosodic phrase boundaries is length. The distances to the front boundary and the back boundary are more important than the lengths of the left syntactic contituent and the right one. In our corpus, the length distributions of prosodic phrases are 5±3 syllables. 3 Automatic downstep can lower intonation linearly, but is affected by stress easily. Non-automatic downstep lowers the higher part of pitch contours and has no effect on the lower one of the intonation. 4 The downtrend reason of low point is declination. The extent of declination relates to not only tones of low points, but also their positions in prosodic words, the baselines decline much faster when low point are in the initial position of a prosodic word. In long sentences, the baselines of prosodic phrases are the basic declination units, and the whole declination pattern of a sentence is related to syntactic relations between two neighboring prosodic phrases.

通过对心理学期刊的几项统计分析看我国十年来儿童发展教育心理学研究状况与动向

In this study, bibliometric method was usded in the investigation of 2274 papers concerning child developmental and educational psychology, which were published during the ten years of 1979-1988, in 14 psychological journals and 97 other scientific journals. According to the quantitative and qualitative analyses, the results are as follows: 1979-1988 saw the rapid development and prosperous period in China's child developmental and educational psychology, During which more papers were published and more fields couched than in the psvious thirty years. The number of literature publications increased and went to the peak in 1983 and 1984, and came down since 1985. The trend was found to result from the decrease in popular science introductions of psychology, which reflected that a heat of psychology had appeared in 1983 and started to cool in 1985. At the mean time, the number of research reports had been holding a steady increase by 1987 and decreased obviously in 1988, especially in the fields of cognitive and social development. There could be several possible explanations of this phenonemon: Piagetian studies are becoming fewer and the eakening of Piaget's influence might predict a period of standstill in the field of developmental psychology in China; As researches become more and more difficult, researchers have turned to be more cautious in lay out their reports; the cutdown of fees and staff could also be one of reasons for less publication in 1988. As the factors mentioned above still exist and their influences last, the number of papers are not expected to increase in the near future. The field of thinking and menory is closely connected with that of artificial intelligence. The downhill situations in these two fileds should be taken seriously. 2. The types of research work are divided on the bases of their problem raising. The trends show that the deepening studies, which represent a comaratively higher level of exploration, are waving fewer, while repeated studies and creative studies are becoming more as the years go along. This fact is worth being further analysed. Big progress could be seen from research methods. The methods currently used are mainly experiment, psychological measurement and assessment, and theoretical reasoning. There is a rapid increase of research by using scales. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Binet Scale and Baley Scale have been revised andstandardized. Chinese researchers have also developed several good scales of their own, some of which are valuable and need to be standardized. In the papers investigated, the amount of citation is significantly lower than the world average level as well as the average citation number of whole China's scientific literature. Among the papers cited, most are of Chinese and English languages, and only a small rate were published in resently five years. The renewal of literature cited seems to stay at a low level in the ten years. Tremendous work could be reflected by the number of subjects used the research work in those ten years: 362665. A lot of studies piled on the period of 4-16 year olds. Compared with the previous thirty years, the age range was much enlarged and there were quite a few studies about preschool, school and adolescent periods. The study of newborn of 0-3 has been a weak point so far and it is a field to which chinese developmental psychologists should pay more attention. The progress in using statistics is one of the most obvious part in the development in the research work of child developmental and educational psychology. The one tendency that should be awared and avoid is to put the cart before the horse: seeking for more sophisticated statistic method while neglecting the meanings of research problems. 3. Citation analysis was used in selecting scholars who had great influence in the field of child developmental and educational psychology. Among the often cited and famous scholars, 31 are Chinese researchers and 12 are Western psychologists. The authoritative journal for child developmental psychology and educational psychology is Acta Psychologica Sinica.

Representações sociais dos estudantes universitários face a uma relação sexual ocasional

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Mestre em Psicologia especialização em Psicologia da Saúde e Intervenção Comunitária.

Análise Biográfica, do Estilo de Vinculação e da Personalidade, em Indivíduos com História de Abuso de Substâncias e Condutas Delinquentes

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências Sociais.

Modulation of the complement system in monocytes contributes to tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome.

Tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) is a common complication in HIV-TB co-infected patients receiving combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated a putative contribution of monocytes to the development of TB-IRIS.

Wireless networked control systems with QoS-based sampling

Closing feedback loops using an IEEE 802.11b ad hoc wireless communication network incurs many challenges sensitivity to varying channel conditions and lower physical transmission rates tend to limit the bandwidth of the communication channel. Given that the bandwidth usage and control performance are linked, a method of adapting the sampling interval based on an 'a priori', static sampling policy has been proposed and, more significantly, assuring stability in the mean square sense using discrete-time Markov jump linear system theory. Practical issues including current limitations of the 802.11 b protocol, the sampling policy and stability are highlighted. Simulation results on a cart-mounted inverted pendulum show that closed-loop stability can be improved using sample rate adaptation and that the control design criteria can be met in the presence of channel errors and severe channel contention.

Observations towards early-type stars in the ESO-POP Survey - II. Searches for intermediate- and high-velocity clouds

We present Ca it K and Ti it optical spectra of early-type stars taken mainly from the ultraviolet and visual echelle spectrograph (LIVES) Paranal Observatory Project, plus H 1 21-cm spectra, from the Vila-Elisa and Leiden-Dwingeloo Surveys, which are employed to obtain distances to intermediate- and high-velocity clouds (IHVCs). H I emission at a velocity of -117 km s(-1) towards the sightline HD 30677 (l, b = 190 degrees.2, -22 degrees.2) with column density -1.7 x 10(19) cm(-2) has no corresponding Ca Pi K absorption in the LIVES spectrum, which has a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of 610 per resolution element. The star has a spectroscopically determined distance of 2.7 kpc, and hence sets this as a firm lower distance limit towards Anti-Centre cloud ACII. Towards another sightline (HD 46185 with 1, b = 222 0, -10 degrees.1), H1 at a velocity of +122 km s(-1) and column density of 1.2 x 10(19) cm(-2) is seen. The corresponding Ca Pi K spectrum has a S/N of 780, although no absorption is observed at the cloud velocity. This similarly places a firm lower distance limit of 2.9 kpc towards this parcel of gas that may be an intermediate-velocity (IV) cloud. The lack of IV Ca it absorption towards HD 196426 (1, b = 45 degrees.8, -23 degrees.3) at a S/N of 500 reinforces a lower distance limit of -700 pc towards this part of complex gp, where the H I column density is 1.1 x 1019 cm(-2) and velocity is +78 km s(-1). Additionally, no IV Cart is seen in absorption in the spectrum of HD 19445, which is strong in H I with a column density of 8 x 10(19) cm(-2) at a velocity of - -42 km s(-1), placing a firm although uninteresting lower distance limit of 39 pc to this part of IV South. Finally, no high-velocity Call K absorption is seen towards HD 115363 (l, b = 306.0,-1.0) at a S/N of 410, placing a lower distance of -3.2 kpc towards the HVC gas at velocity of - +224 km s(-1) and WE column density of 5.2 x 10(19) cm(-2). This gas is in the same region of the sky as complex WE (Wakker 2001), but at higher velocities. The non-detection of Ca it K absorption sets a lower distance of -3.2 kpc towards the HVC, which is unsurprising if this feature is indeed related to the Magellanic System.

Effect of vehicle characteristics on safety, fuel use and emissions

Nos últimos anos, o número de vítimas de acidentes de tráfego por milhões de habitantes em Portugal tem sido mais elevado do que a média da União Europeia. Ao nível nacional torna-se premente uma melhor compreensão dos dados de acidentes e sobre o efeito do veículo na gravidade do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta investigação consistiu no desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão da gravidade do acidente, para o caso de um único veículo envolvido e para caso de uma colisão, envolvendo dois veículos. Além disso, esta investigação compreendeu o desenvolvimento de uma análise integrada para avaliar o desempenho do veículo em termos de segurança, eficiência energética e emissões de poluentes. Os dados de acidentes foram recolhidos junto da Guarda Nacional Republicana Portuguesa, na área metropolitana do Porto para o período de 2006-2010. Um total de 1,374 acidentes foram recolhidos, 500 acidentes envolvendo um único veículo e 874 colisões. Para a análise da segurança, foram utilizados modelos de regressão logística. Para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o efeito das características do veículo no risco de feridos graves e/ou mortos (variável resposta definida como binária) foi explorado. Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos foram criadas duas variáveis binárias adicionais: uma para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos num dos veículos (designado como veículo V1) e outra para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no outro veículo envolvido (designado como veículo V2). Para ultrapassar o desafio e limitações relativas ao tamanho da amostra e desigualdade entre os casos analisados (apenas 5.1% de acidentes graves), foi desenvolvida uma metodologia com base numa estratégia de reamostragem e foram utilizadas 10 amostras geradas de forma aleatória e estratificada para a validação dos modelos. Durante a fase de modelação, foi analisado o efeito das características do veículo, como o peso, a cilindrada, a distância entre eixos e a idade do veículo. Para a análise do consumo de combustível e das emissões, foi aplicada a metodologia CORINAIR. Posteriormente, os dados das emissões foram modelados de forma a serem ajustados a regressões lineares. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido um indicador de análise integrada (denominado “SEG”) que proporciona um método de classificação para avaliar o desempenho do veículo ao nível da segurança rodoviária, consumos e emissões de poluentes.Face aos resultados obtidos, para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o modelo de previsão do risco de gravidade identificou a idade e a cilindrada do veículo como estatisticamente significativas para a previsão de ocorrência de feridos graves e/ou mortos, ao nível de significância de 5%. A exatidão do modelo foi de 58.0% (desvio padrão (D.P.) 3.1). Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos, ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V1, a cilindrada do veículo oposto (veículo V2) aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V1, ao nível de significância de 10%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V1 revelou um bom desempenho, com uma exatidão de 61.2% (D.P. 2.4). Ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V2, a cilindrada do veículo V1 aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V2, ao nível de significância de 5%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V2 também revelou um desempenho satisfatório, com uma exatidão de 40.5% (D.P. 2.1). Os resultados do indicador integrado SEG revelaram que os veículos mais recentes apresentam uma melhor classificação para os três domínios: segurança, consumo e emissões. Esta investigação demonstra que não existe conflito entre a componente da segurança, a eficiência energética e emissões relativamente ao desempenho dos veículos.

L'homosexualité dans la littérature jeunesse québécoise (1988-2003) du paratexte au personnage

Soixante ans après Orage sur mon corps, comment l'homosexualité adolescente est-elle représentée dans la littérature au Québec? Basée sur la presque totalité des romans et nouvelles pour la jeunesse qui ont abordé le thème de l'homosexualité au Québec ces 15 dernières années, cette analyse se veut d'abord et avant tout un tour d'horizon des romans et nouvelles jeunesses québécoises ou éditées dans une collection jeunesse québécoise, qui présentent un ou plusieurs personnages homosexuels"actifs". Il m'apparaît pertinent de voir, dans un premier temps, par qui ces textes ont été écrits, comment ils sont présentés, dans quelles collections et chez quels éditeurs ils ont été publiés, dans quelles circonstances ils ont pris ou non une place enviable dans la production jeunesse et quelles voies ils ont utilisées pour parvenir à leurs fins. Chaque texte est donc soumis à une analyse systématique de ses auteur, éditeur, directeur de collection, collection, titre et couverture (première et quatrième de couverture). Les informations du paratexte éclairent, dans un second temps, les personnages homosexuels qui sont présentés dans les titres retenus. L'examen du personnage s'effectue autour de points spécifiques: description (physique et psychologique), auxiliaires, références à des éléments ou personnages publics homosexuels, sexualité, autonomie et fonctionnalité dans le texte, principe de l'écart minimal, etc., tout en débordant à l'occasion sur certains éléments dignes d'attention. Cette analyse se veut un premier regard sur ces oeuvres, pour comprendre d'où elles sortent, â quoi elles répondent, dans quel courant elles s'inscrivent et comment elles s'y sont prises pour aborder un sujet délicat dans une société où l'on fait une grande place au roman-miroir tout en éprouvant un malaise évident lorsqu'il est question de sexualité adolescente."--Résumé abrégé par UMI.

A case study on the eco-efficiency performance of a composite processing industry: evaluation and quantification of potential improvements

In this study, an attempt was made in order to measure and evaluate the eco-efficiency performance of a pultruded composite processing company. For this purpose the recommendations of World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WCSD) and the directives of ISO 14301 standard were followed and applied. The main general indicators of eco-efficiency, as well as the specific indicators, were defined and determined. With basis on indicators’ figures, the value profile, the environmental profile, and the pertinent eco-efficiency ratios were established and analyzed. In order to evaluate potential improvements on company eco-performance, new indicators values and eco-efficiency ratios were estimated taking into account the implementation of new proceedings and procedures, at both upstream and downstream of the production process, namely: i) Adoption of a new heating system for pultrusion die-tool in the manufacturing process, more effective and with minor heat losses; ii) Recycling approach, with partial waste reuse of scrap material derived from manufacturing, cutting and assembly processes of GFRP profiles. These features lead to significant improvements on the sequent assessed eco-efficiency ratios of the present case study, yielding to a more sustainable product and manufacturing process of pultruded GFRP profiles.