Modelação e previsão de vendas no setor do retalho de calçado

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Professora Doutora Patrícia Alexandra Gregório Ramos

Calibration of CES functions for real-world multisectoral modeling

We show how to calibrate CES production and utility functions when indirect taxation affecting inputs and consumption is present. These calibrated functions can then be used in computable general equilibrium models. Taxation modifies the standard calibration procedures since any taxed good has two associated prices and a choice of reference value units has to be made. We also provide an example of computer code to solve the calibration of CES utilities under two alternate normalizations. To our knowledge, this paper fills a methodological gap in the CGE literature.

Increasing returns, imperfect competition and factor prices

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfectcompetition and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affectincome distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross-substitutes (gross-complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factoror the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypothesis, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a microfoundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) assemblage of a highly fragmented landscape of Atlantic forest: from small to the largest fragments of northeastern Brazilian region

Human activities in tropical forests are the main causes of forest fragmentation. According to historical factor in deforestation processes, forest remnants exhibit different sizes and shapes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the dung beetle assemblage on fragments of different degree of sizes. Sampling was performed during rainy and dry season of 2010 in six fragments of Atlantic forest, using pitfall traps baited with excrement and carrion. Also, we used two larger fragments as control. We used General Linear Models to determine whether the fragments presented distinguished dung beetle abundance and richness. Analysis of Similarities and Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling were used to determine whether the dung beetle assemblage was grouped according to species composition. A total of 3352 individuals were collected and 19 species were identified in the six fragments sampled. Dung beetle abundance exhibited a shift according to fragment size; however, richness did not change among fragments evaluated. Also, fragments sampled and the two controls exhibited distinct species composition. The distinction on abundance of dung beetles among fragments may be related to different amount of resource available in each one. It is likely that the dung beetle richness did not distinguish among the different fragments due to the even distribution of the mammal communities in these patches, and consequent equal dung diversity. We conclude that larger fragments encompass higher abundance of dung beetle and distinct species. However, for a clearer understanding of effects of fragmentation on dung beetles in Atlantic forest, studies evaluating narrower variations of larger fragments should be conducted.

Impacto de la circulación ecuatorial en la zona mínima de oxógeno presente en el norte del Ecosistema de la Corriente del Humboldt

El Norte del Ecosistema de la Corriente Humboldt (NECH) constituye una de las mayores zonas de afloramiento, localizada en el borde oriental del Pacifico Sur, la cual presenta características particulares, entre las que destacan una alta producción primaria y la presencia de una de las zonas mínimas de oxigeno (ZMO) más intensas en el océano abierto. La ZMO presente en esta zona es producto de la alta demanda de oxígeno durante la remineralización de la materia orgánica, el largo tiempo de residencia de sus aguas y su poca ventilación. En el presente estudio nos enfocamos en estudiar la influencia de cambios en la ventilación en la ZMO del NECH, tomando como las principales fuentes de aporte de oxígeno en esta zona a la Corriente Sub-superficial Ecuatorial (EUC) y las Contracorrientes Sub-superficiales del Sur (SSCCs) o también conocidas como los Jets de Tsuchiya. Utilizamos el modelo acoplado físico-biogeoquímico ROMS-PISCES, para observar la sensibilidad de la ZMO a diferentes condiciones de la circulación ecuatorial provenientes de dos modelos oceánicos de circulación general (SODA y MERCATOR). Los resultados muestran que el flujo de oxígeno a los 88ºW disminuye latitudinalmente de la EUC a los SSCCs; además, se observa que la ZMO desaparece de los 4ºN - 4ºS en la simulación que presenta una circulación más intensa (RPSoda) por lo que se puede concluir que una intensificación de la circulación ecuatorial afectaría principalmente a la zona ecuatorial y no frente a Perú, debido a que una mayor ventilación sería compensada con un mayor consumo de oxigeno durante la remineralización, producto de una alta productividad generada por un mayor flujo de nutrientes.

Microstates of a neutral black hole in M theory

We consider vacuum solutions in M theory of the form of a five-dimensional Kaluza-Klein black hole cross T6. In a certain limit, these include the five-dimensional neutral rotating black hole (cross T6). From a type-IIA standpoint, these solutions carry D0 and D6 charges. We show that there is a simple D-brane description which precisely reproduces the Hawking-Bekenstein entropy in the extremal limit, even though supersymmetry is completely broken.

The impact of insight in a first-episode mania with psychosis population on outcome at 18 months.

BACKGROUND: To explore whether poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features was predictive of poor psychosocial and clinical outcomes at 18 months. METHODS: Secondary analysis was performed on data collected during an 8-week RCT comparing the efficacy of olanzapine versus chlorpromazine as an adjunct to lithium, and at 18-month follow-up. 74 participants were divided into three groups (no insight, partial insight, and full insight) according to the insight item from the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). Differences between these three groups were examined at baseline and at 18 months on measures of symptoms (YMRS, HAMD-21, and CGI-S), and social and occupational functioning (SOFAS). Baseline differences between the three groups were determined using general linear models and chi-squared analyses. Group differences from baseline to 18-month follow-up were determined using repeated measures general linear models. RESULTS: At baseline there were significant differences between the three insight groups in terms of mania and functioning, but at 18 months all groups had improved significantly in terms of psychopathology, mania, depression and social and occupational functioning. There were no significant differences between the three groups at study completion with respect to these domains. LIMITATIONS: The study was limited by the lack of availability of a more detailed rating scale for insight, and it did not account for the duration of untreated psychosis (DUI). CONCLUSIONS: Poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features does not predict poor clinical and psychosocial outcome at 18 months.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Spectral Analysis of Buffers in Communication Systems

Muokatun matriisi-geometrian tekniikan kehitys yleimmäksi jonoksi on esitelty tässä työssä. Jonotus systeemi koostuu useista jonoista joilla on rajatut kapasiteetit. Tässä työssä on myös tutkittu PH-tyypin jakautumista kun ne jaetaan. Rakenne joka vastaa lopullista Markovin ketjua jossa on itsenäisiä matriiseja joilla on QBD rakenne. Myös eräitä rajallisia olotiloja on käsitelty tässä työssä. Sen esitteleminen matriisi-geometrisessä muodossa, muokkaamalla matriisi-geometristä ratkaisua on tämän opinnäytetyön tulos.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

Fusion weld metal solidification:Continuum from weld interface to centerline

We present a brief résumé of the history of solidification research and key factors affecting the solidification of fusion welds. There is a general agreement of the basic solidification theory, albeit differing - even confusing - nomenclatures do exist, and Cases 2 and 3 (the Chalmers' basic boundary conditions for solidification, categorized by Savage as Cases) are variably emphasized. Model Frame, a tool helping to model the continuum of fusion weld solidification from start to end, is proposed. It incorporates the general solidification models, of which the pertinent ones are selected for the actual modeling. The basic models are the main solidification Cases 1…4. These discrete Cases are joined with Sub-Cases: models of Pfann, Flemings and others, bringing needed Sub-Case variables into the model. Model Frame depicts a grain growing from the weld interface to its centerline. Besides modeling, the Model Frame supports education and academic debate. The new mathematical modeling techniques will extend its use into multi-dimensional modeling, introducing new variables and increasing the modeling accuracy. We propose a model: melting/solidification-model (M/S-model) - predicting the solute profile at the start of the solidification of a fusion weld. This Case 3-based Sub-Case takes into account the melting stage, the solute back-diffusion in the solid, and the growth rate acceleration typical to fusion welds. We propose - based on works of Rutter & Chalmers, David & Vitek and our experimental results on copper - that NEGS-EGS-transition is not associated only with cellular-dendritic-transition. Solidification is studied experimentally on pure and doped copper with welding speed range from 0 to 200 cm/min, with one test at 3000 cm/min. Found were only planar and cellular structures, no dendrites - columnar or equiaxed. Cell sub structures: rows of cubic elements we call "cubelettes", "cell-bands" and "micro-cells", as well as an anomalous crack morphology "crack-eye", were detected, as well as microscopic hot crack nucleus we call "grain-lag cracks", caused by a grain slightly lagging behind its neighbors in arrival to the weld centerline. Varestraint test and R-test revealed a change of crack morphologies from centerline cracks to grainand cell boundary cracks with an increasing welding speed. High speed made the cracks invisible to bare eye and hardly detectable with light microscope, while electron microscope often revealed networks of fine micro-cracks.

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.