Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

BACKGROUND The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. RESULTS The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Elective foot and ankle surgery : activity and perioperative complications in Queensland public hospitals, Australia

Objective: To conduct an audit of elective foot and ankle surgery in Queensland public hospitals and to compare the frequency of these procedures performed to other states and territories of Australia. ---------- Methods: ICD-10-AM data was used to extract elective foot and ankle procedures from the Data Services Unit of Queensland Health, and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare between the years of 2000 and 2004. ---------- Results During the 4-year audit period 3846 primary procedures were performed during the 4-year period with a complication rate of 2.2% during the hospital admission period. Mean length of stay was 1.7 days. Post-operative infection rates were 0.26%. With the exception of Tasmania and the Northern Territory, Queensland performs the least number of elective foot and ankle procedures per capita per year in Australia. ---------- Conclusions This is the first reported audit of elective foot and ankle surgery for Queensland public hospitals. Complication rates cannot be directly compared to the literature as this data could only capture complications within hospital admission period. Fewer elective foot and ankle procedures were performed in Queensland public hospitals compared to all other mainland states of Australia during the data collection period.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development status and future prospects for a vaccine against Chlamydia trachomatis infection

Chlamydia trachomatis continues to be the most commonly reported sexually transmitted bacterial infection in many countries with more than 100 million new cases estimated annually. These acute infections translate into significant downstream health care costs, particularly for women, where complications can include pelvic inflammatory disease and other disease sequelae such as tubal factor infertility. Despite years of research, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protective immunity versus immunopathology are still not well understood, although it is widely accepted that T cell driven IFN-g and Th17 responses are critical for clearing infection. While antibodies are able to neutralize infections in vitro, alone they are not protective, indicating that any successful vaccine will need to elicit both arms of the immune response. In recent years, there has been an expansion in the number and types of antigens that have been evaluated as vaccines, and combined with the new array of mucosal adjuvants, this aspect of chlamydial vaccinology is showing promise. Most recently, the opportunities to develop successful vaccines have been given a significant boost with the development of a genetic transformation system for Chlamydia, as well as the identification of the key role of the chlamydial plasmid in virulence. While still remaining a major challenge, the development of a successful C.trachomatis vaccine is starting to look more likely.

Proof of concept : A bioinformatic and serological screening method for identifying new peptide antigens for Chlamydia trachomatis related sequelae in women

This study aimed to identify new peptide antigens from Chlamydia (C.) trachomatis in a proof of concept approach which could be used to develop an epitope-based serological diagnostic for C. trachomatis related infertility in women. A bioinformatics analysis was conducted examining several immunodominant proteins from C. trachomatis to identify predicted immunoglobulin epitopes unique to C. trachomatis. A peptide array of these epitopes was screened against participant sera. The participants (all female) were categorized into the following cohorts based on their infection and gynecological history; acute (single treated infection with C. trachomatis), multiple (more than one C. trachomatis infection, all treated), sequelae (PID or tubal infertility with a history of C. trachomatis infection), and infertile (no history of C. trachomatis infection and no detected tubal damage). The bioinformatics strategy identified several promising epitopes. Participants who reacted positively in the peptide 11 ELISA were found to have an increased likelihood of being in the sequelae cohort compared to the infertile cohort with an odds ratio of 16.3 (95% c.i. 1.65 – 160), with 95% specificity and 46% sensitivity (0.19-0.74). The peptide 11 ELISA has the potential to be further developed as a screening tool for use during the early IVF work up and provides proof of concept that there may be further peptide antigens which could be identified using bioinformatics and screening approaches.

Play and heal : randomized controlled trial of Ditto intervention efficacy on improving re-epithelialization in pediatric burns

BACKGROUND: The relationships between pain, stress and anxiety, and their effect on burn wound re-epithelialization have not been well explored to-date. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the Ditto (a hand-held electronic medical device providing procedural preparation and distraction) intervention on re-epithelialization rates in acute pediatric burns. METHODS/DESIGN: From August 2011 to August 2012, children (4-12 years) with an acute burn presenting to the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia fulfilled the study requirements and were randomized to [1] Ditto intervention or [2] standard practice. Burn re-epithelialization, pain intensity, anxiety and stress measures were obtained at every dressing change until complete wound re-epithelialization. RESULTS: One hundred and seventeen children were randomized and 75 children were analyzed (n=40 standard group; n=35 Ditto group). Inability to predict wound management resulted in 42 participants no longer meeting the eligibility criteria. Wounds in the Ditto intervention group re-epithelialized faster than the standard practice group (-2.14 days (CI: -4.38 to 0.10), p-value=0.061), and significantly faster when analyses were adjusted for mean burn depth (-2.26 days (CI: -4.48 to -0.04), p-value=0.046). Following procedural preparation at the first change of dressing, the Ditto group reported lower pain intensity scores (-0.64 (CI: -1.28, 0.01) p=0.052) and lower anxiety ratings (-1.79 (CI: -3.59, 0.01) p=0.051). At the second and third dressing removals average pain (FPS-R and FLACC) and anxiety scores (VAS-A) were at least one point lower when Ditto intervention was received. CONCLUSIONS: The Ditto procedural preparation and distraction device is a useful tool alongside pharmacological intervention to improve the rate of burn re-epithelialization and manage pain and anxiety during burn wound care procedures.

An audit of first-aid treatment of pediatric burns patients and their clinical outcome

This study describes the first aid used and clinical outcomes of all patients who presented to the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia in 2005 with an acute burn injury. A retrospective audit was performed with the charts of 459 patients and information concerning burn injury, first-aid treatment, and clinical outcomes was collected. First aid was used on 86.1% of patients, with 8.7% receiving no first aid and unknown treatment in 5.2% of cases. A majority of patients had cold water as first aid (80.2%), however, only 12.1% applied the cold water for the recommended 20 minutes or longer. Recommended first aid (cold water for >or=20 minutes) was associated with significantly reduced reepithelialization time for children with contact injuries (P=.011). Superficial depth burns were significantly more likely to be associated with the use of recommended first aid (P=.03). Suboptimal treatment was more common for children younger than 3.5 years (P<.001) and for children with friction burns. This report is one of the few publications to relate first-aid treatment to clinical outcomes. Some positive clinical outcomes were associated with recommended first-aid use; however, wound outcomes were more strongly associated with burn depth and mechanism of injury. There is also a need for more public awareness of recommended first-aid treatment.

Can the use of quality assurance tools reduce the impact of surgical complications on the well-being of obstetricians and gynaecologists in Australia and New Zealand?

Background While adverse events primarily affect the patient, surgeons involved can also experience considerable distress. Aims The aim of the survey was to assess the impact of complications on the day-to-day life, work and health of Australian and New Zealand obstetricians and gynaecologists and to evaluate existing support systems and coping strategies. Methods A 43-question survey on self-assessment, quality assurance (QA) tools, impact of complications on individuals’ health and relationships, and support available was emailed to fellows, trainees, subspecialists and subspecialty trainees of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (RANZCOG). We collected 606 responses from a target population of 2296 (response rate 26.3%). Results When complications occur, sleep was affected of 80%, family and social relationships of 55% and physical health of 48% of respondents. The major sources of support were from colleagues (83%), family (82%) and medical defence organisations (73%), with professional bodies perceived as providing least support. Nearly 80% of respondents felt the need to talk to someone they trust during times of complications. Overall, 100% of respondents used at least one QA tool (62% used two, 26% three and 9% four QA strategies). There were significant differences between respondent groups in use of the QA tools. Conclusions Surgical complications have a significant impact on the well-being of Australian and New Zealand obstetricians and gynaecologists. Existing support comes from colleagues and family, but structured, unbiased support for surgeons from a professional source is urgently warranted.

Can nurses do more for patients to reduce vascular access and cardiac complications following PCI?

Percutaneous coronary interventions have increased 50% in Australia, yet vascular and cardiac complications remain ongoing outcome issues for patients. Managing complications is confounded by reduced length of patient stay, yet is an integral component of a cardiac nurses’ scope of practice. The aim of this study was to highlight in and out of hospital vascular and cardiac complications, for twelve months post patient discharge after PCI. Prospective data was collected from the hospital angioplasty database from 1089 consecutive patients who had PCI procedures from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2006. In hospital vascular complications were reported by 391 (35%) of the 1089 patients, following PCI. Of these, 22.4% had haemorrhage only, 7.1% haematoma only. Cardiac complications in hospital were, one death (0.09%) following PCI, three deaths (0.27%) during the same admission and no incidence of myocardial infarction or bypass surgery. Patients who had PCI in 2005 (525) were telephone followed up after discharge at one and twelve months. Surprisingly, ongoing vascular outcomes were noted, with a 2.5% incidence at one month and 4% at 12 months. Cardiac complications were also identified, 51 (9.7%) patients requiring readmission for repeat angiogram, 19 (3.6%) a repeat PCI and 7 (1.3%) patients undergoing bypass surgery. This review highlights that vascular and cardiac problems are ongoing issues for PCI patients both in and out of hospital. The results suggest that cardiac nurses focus more on improving the monitoring and discharge care of patients and families for recovery after PCI.

Is there a relationship between screening for diabetes related foot complications and limb amputation?

Background From the conservative estimates of registrants with the National Diabetes Supply Scheme, we will be soon passing 1.1 Million Australians affected by all types of diabetes. The diabetes complications of foot ulceration and amputation are costly to all. These costs can be reduced with appropriate prevention strategies, starting with identifying people at risk through primary care diabetic foot screening. Yet levels of diabetic foot screening in Australia are difficult to quantify. This presentation aims to report on foot screening rates as recorded in existing academic literature, national health surveys and national database reports. Methods Literature searches included diabetic foot screening that occurred in the primary care setting for populations over 2000 people from 2002 to 2014. Searches were performed using Medline and CINAHL as well as internet searches of Organisations for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries health databases. The focus is on type 1 and type 2 diabetes in adults, and not gestational diabetes or children. The two primary outcome measures were foot -screening rates as a percentage of adult diabetic population and major lower limb amputation incidence rates from standardised OECD data. Results The most recent and accurate level for Australian population review was in the AUSDIAB (Australian Diabetes and lifestyle survey) from 2004. This survey reported screening in primary care to be as low as 50%. Countries such as the United Kingdom and United States of America have much higher reported rates of foot screening (67-86%) recorded using national databases and web based initiatives that involve patients and clinicians. By comparison major amputation rates for Australia were similar to the United Kingdom at 6.5 versus 5.1 per 100,000 population, but dis-similar to the United States of America at 17 per 100,000 population. Conclusions Australian rates of diabetic foot screening in primary care centres is ambiguous. There is no direct relationship between foot screening levels in a primary care environment and major lower limb amputation, based on national health survey's and OECD data. Uptake of national registers, incentives and web-based systems improve levels of diabetic foot assessment, which are the first steps to a healthier diabetic population.

Venous thromboembolism during pregnancy and the impact of thrombophilia in pregnancy complications

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the greatest single cause of maternal mortality in pregnant women in developed countries. Pregnancy is a hypercoagulable state and brings about an enhanced risk of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in otherwise healthy women. Traditionally, unfractionated heparin (UFH) has been used for treatment of DVT during pregnancy. We showed in our observational study that low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) is as effective and safe as UFH in the treatment of DVT during pregnancy. Although DVT during pregnancy is often massive, increasing the risk of developing long-term consequences, namely post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS), only 11% of all patients had confirmed PTS 3 4 years after DVT. In our studies the prevalence of PTS was not dependent on treatment (UFH vs LMWH). Low molecular weight heparin is more easily administered, few laboratory controls are required and the hospital stay is shorter, factors that lower the costs of treatment. Cervical insufficiency is defined as repeated very preterm delivery during the second or early third trimester. Infection is a well-known risk factor of preterm delivery. We found overpresentation of thrombophilic mutations (FV Leiden, prothrombin G20210A)among 42 patients with cervical insufficiency compared with controls (OR 6.7, CI 2.7 18.4). Thus, thrombophilia might be a risk factor of cervical insufficiency possibly explained by interaction of coagulation and inflammation processes. The presence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies increases the risk for recurrent miscarriage (RM). Annexins are proteins which all bind to anionic phospholipids (PLs) preventing clotting on vascular phospholipid surfaces. Plasma concentrations of circulating annexin IV and V were investigated in 77 pregnancies at the beginning of pregnancy among women with a history of RM, and in connection to their aPL antibody status. Control group consisted unselected pregnant patients (n=25) without history of adverse pregnancy outcome. Plasma levels of annexin V were significantly higher at the beginning (≤5th week) of pregnancy in women with aPL antibodies compared with those without aPL antibodies (P=0.03). Levels of circulating annexin V were also higher at the 6th (P= 0.01) and 8th week of pregnancy in subjects with aPL antibodies (P=0.01). Results support the hypothesis that aPL could displace annexin from anionic phospholipid surfaces of syncytiotrophoblasts (STBs) and may exert procoagulant activities on the surfaces of STBs Recurrent miscarriage (RM) has been suggested to be caused by mutations in genes coding for various coagulation factors resulting in thrombophilia. In the last study of my thesis were investigated the prevalence of thrombomodulin (TM) and endothelial protein C receptor polymorphism EPCR among 40 couples and six women suffering RM. This study showed that mutations in the TM or EPCR genes are not a major cause of RM in Finnish patients.