Comparisons of Estimates of Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Small Drainage Basins in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2013, TR-678, 2015

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for small (20 square miles or less) drainage basins in Iowa. With the publication of new multi- and single-variable RREs by the U.S. Geological Survey (published in 2013), the Iowa Department of Transportation needs to determine which methods of AEPD estimation provide the best accuracy and the least bias for small drainage basins in Iowa. Twenty five streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 square miles (mi2) and 55 streamgages with drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2 were selected for the comparisons that used two evaluation metrics. Estimates of AEPDs calculated for the streamgages using the expected moments algorithm/multiple Grubbs-Beck test analysis method were compared to estimates of AEPDs calculated from the 2013 multivariable RREs; the 2013 single-variable RREs; the 1987 single-variable RREs; the TR-55 rainfall-runoff model; and the Iowa Runoff Chart. For the 25 streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the TR-55 method for flood regions 1 and 3 (published in 2013) and by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For drainage basins with areas between 2 and 20 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for the Southern Iowa Drift Plain landform region and for flood region 3 (published in 2013), by using the 2013 multivariable RREs for the Iowan Surface landform region, and by using the 2013 or 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For all other landform or flood regions in Iowa, use of the 2013 single-variable RREs may provide the best overall accuracy and the least bias. An examination was conducted to understand why the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias than either of the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs. A comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance-probability regression lines for hydrologic regions 1–4 from the 1987 single-variable RREs and for flood regions 1–3 from the 2013 single-variable RREs indicates that the 1987 single-variable regional-regression lines generally have steeper slopes and lower discharges when compared to 2013 single-variable regional-regression lines for corresponding areas of Iowa. The combination of the definition of hydrologic regions, the lower discharges, and the steeper slopes of regression lines associated with the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias when compared to the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs; better accuracy and less bias was determined particularly for drainage areas less than 2 mi2, and also for some drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2. The 2013 multi- and single-variable RREs are considered to provide better accuracy and less bias for larger drainage areas. Results of this study indicate that additional research is needed to address the curvilinear relation between drainage area and AEPDs for areas of Iowa.

Placental growth factor-1 and epithelial haemato-retinal barrier breakdown: potential implication in the pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Disruption of the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) barrier contributes to sub-retinal fluid and retinal oedema as observed in diabetic retinopathy. High placental growth factor (PLGF) vitreous levels have been found in diabetic patients. This work aimed to elucidate the influence of PLGF-1 on a human RPE cell line (ARPE-19) barrier in vitro and on normal rat eyes in vivo. METHODS: ARPE-19 permeability was measured using transepithelial resistance and inulin flux under stimulation of PLGF-1, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-E and VEGF 165. Using RT-PCR, we evaluated the effect of hypoxic conditions or insulin on transepithelial resistance and on PLGF-1 and VEGF receptors. The involvement of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MEK, also known as MAPK)/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK, also known as EPHB2) signalling pathways under PLGF-1 stimulation was evaluated by western blot analysis and specific inhibitors. The effect of PLGF-1 on the external haemato-retinal barrier was evaluated after intravitreous injection of PLGF-1 in the rat eye; evaluation was by semi-thin analysis and zonula occludens-1 immunolocalisation on flat-mounted RPE. RESULTS: In vitro, PLGF-1 induced a reversible decrease of transepithelial resistance and enhanced tritiated inulin flux. These effects were specifically abolished by an antisense oligonucleotide directed at VEGF receptor 1. Exposure of ARPE-19 cells to hypoxic conditions or to insulin induced an upregulation of PLGF-1 expression along with increased transcellular permeability. The PLGF-1-induced RPE cell permeability involved the MEK signalling pathway. Injection of PLGF-1 in the rat eye vitreous induced an opening of the RPE tight junctions with subsequent sub-retinal fluid accumulation, retinal oedema and cytoplasm translocation of junction proteins. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results indicate that PLGF-1 may be a potential regulation target for the control of diabetic retinal and macular oedema.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

Power supply noise and logic error probability

Voltage fluctuations caused by parasitic impedances in the power supply rails of modern ICs are a major concern in nowadays ICs. The voltage fluctuations are spread out to the diverse nodes of the internal sections causing two effects: a degradation of performances mainly impacting gate delays anda noisy contamination of the quiescent levels of the logic that drives the node. Both effects are presented together, in thispaper, showing than both are a cause of errors in modern and future digital circuits. The paper groups both error mechanismsand shows how the global error rate is related with the voltage deviation and the period of the clock of the digital system.

Error probability in synchronous digital circuits due to power supply noise

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model the problem of power supply voltage fluctuations. Error probability calculations are shown for some 90-nm technology digital circuits.The analysis here considered gives the timing violation error probability as a new design quality factor in front of conventional techniques that assume the full perfection of the circuit. The evaluation of the error bound can be useful for new design paradigms where retry and self-recoveringtechniques are being applied to the design of high performance processors. The method here described allows to evaluate the performance of these techniques by means of calculating the expected error probability in terms of power supply distribution quality.

Using tools to help cost estimating and pricing: examination of costing model's and cost breakdown's workability and their capability to cooperative work

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee työkaluja, jotka on suunniteltu kustannusten ennakointiin ja hinnan asetantaan. Aluksi on käyty läpi perinteisen ja toimintoperusteisen kustannuslaskennan perusteita. Näiden menetelmien välisiä eroja on tarkasteltu ja toimintoperusteisen kustannuslaskennan paremmin sopivuus nykypäivän yrityksille on perusteltu. Toisena käsitellään hinnoittelu. Hinnan merkitys, hinnoittelumenetelmät ja päätös lopullisesta hinnasta on käyty läpi. Hinnoittelun jälkeen esitellään kustannusjärjestelmät ja kustannusten arviointi. Nämä asiat todistavat, että tarkat kustannusarviot ovat elintärkeitä yritykselle. Tuotteen kustannusarviointi, hinnan asetanta ja tarjoaminen ovat erittäin merkityksellisiä asioita ottaen huomioon koko projektin elinkaaren ja tulevat tuotot. Nykyään on yleistä käyttää työkaluja kustannusarvioinnissa ja joskus myös hinnoittelussa. Työkalujen luotettavuus on tiedettävä, ennenkuin työkalut otetaan käyttöön. Myös työkalujen käyttäjät täytyy perehdyttää hyvin. Muuten yritys todennäköisesti kohtaa odottamattomia ja epämiellyttäviä yllätyksiä.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Correlations of glycogen synthase and phosphorylase activities with glycogen concentration in human muscle biopsies. Evidence for a double-feedback mechanism regulating glycogen synthesis and breakdown.

The purpose of this study was to verify in man the relationships of muscle glycogen synthase and phosphorylase activities with glycogen concentration that were reported in animal studies. The upper level of glycogen concentration in muscle is known to be tightly controlled, and glycogen concentration was reported to have an inhibitory effect on synthase activity and a stimulatory effect on phosphorylase activity. Glycogen synthase and phosphorylase activity and glycogen concentration were measured in muscle biopsies in a group of nine normal subjects after stimulating an increase of their muscle glycogen concentration through either an intravenous glucose-insulin infusion to stimulate glycogen synthesis, or an Intralipid (Vitrum, Stockholm, Sweden) infusion in the basal state to inhibit glycogen mobilization by favoring lipid oxidation at the expense of glucose oxidation. Phosphorylase activity increased from 71.3 +/- 21.0 to 152.8 +/- 20.0 nmol/min/mg protein (P < .005) after the glucose-insulin infusion. Phosphorylase activity was positively correlated with glycogen concentration (P = .005 and P = .0001) after the glucose-insulin and Intralipid infusions, respectively. Insulin-stimulated glycogen synthase activity was significantly negatively correlated with glycogen concentration at the end of the Intralipid infusion (P < .005). In conclusion, by demonstrating a negative correlation of glycogen concentration with glycogen synthase and a positive correlation with phosphorylase, this study might confirm in man the double-feedback mechanism by which changes in glycogen concentration regulate glycogen synthase and phosphorylase activities. It suggests that this mechanism might play an important role in the regulation of glucose storage.

Cannabis use and other illicit drug use: Do subjective experiences during first cannabis use increase the probability of using illicit drug use?

Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.

A parameterization method for the computation of invariant tori and their whiskers in quasi-periodic maps: explorations and mechanisms for the breakdown of hyperbolicity

In two previous papers [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530 579; Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 6 (2006), pp. 1261 1300] we have developed fast algorithms for the computations of invariant tori in quasi‐periodic systems and developed theorems that assess their accuracy. In this paper, we study the results of implementing these algorithms and study their performance in actual implementations. More importantly, we note that, due to the speed of the algorithms and the theoretical developments about their reliability, we can compute with confidence invariant objects close to the breakdown of their hyperbolicity properties. This allows us to identify a mechanism of loss of hyperbolicity and measure some of its quantitative regularities. We find that some systems lose hyperbolicity because the stable and unstable bundles approach each other but the Lyapunov multipliers remain away from 1. We find empirically that, close to the breakdown, the distances between the invariant bundles and the Lyapunov multipliers which are natural measures of hyperbolicity depend on the parameters, with power laws with universal exponents. We also observe that, even if the rigorous justifications in [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530-579] are developed only for hyperbolic tori, the algorithms work also for elliptic tori in Hamiltonian systems. We can continue these tori and also compute some bifurcations at resonance which may lead to the existence of hyperbolic tori with nonorientable bundles. We compute manifolds tangent to nonorientable bundles.

Adjusting fracture probability by trabecular bone score.

The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of trabecular bone score on the probability of fracture above that provided by the clinical risk factors utilized in FRAX. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 33,352 women aged 40-99 years from the province of Manitoba, Canada, with baseline measurements of lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) and FRAX risk variables. The analysis was cohort-specific rather than based on the Canadian version of FRAX. The associations between trabecular bone score, the FRAX risk factors and the risk of fracture or death were examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model and used to calculate 10-year probabilities of fracture with and without TBS and to derive an algorithm to adjust fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 1754 women died and 1639 sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture and 306 women sustained one or more hip fracture. When fully adjusted for FRAX risk variables, TBS remained a statistically significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture (HR/SD 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.24), death (HR/SD 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) and hip fracture (HR/SD 1.23, 95 % CI 1.09-1.38). Models adjusting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture probability were derived, accounting for age and trabecular bone score with death considered as a competing event. Lumbar spine texture analysis using TBS is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture and a risk factor for death. The predictive ability of TBS is independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Adjustment of fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk requires validation in independent cohorts.