Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Satzungen nebst dem am 12. Mai 1903 mit der South West Africa Company limited, London, abgeschlossenen Vertrage und Anlagen

Otavi-Minen- und Eisenbahnen-Gesellschaft, Berlin

Trading monopolies in West Africa : a protest against territorial concessions

by E. D. M.

Travels in West Africa : Congo Français, Corisco and Cameroons

by Mary H. Kingsley

Geochemical studies of surface sediment samples off North-West Africa

One hundred and twenty-eight surface-sediment samples collected off North-West Africa were studied geochemically to detect the expressions of different meridional climate regimes and zonal productivity gradients in the surface sediments. This geochemical multi-tracer approach, coupled with additional information on the bulk carbonate and TOC contents makes it possible to characterise the sedimentological regime in detail. Typical terrigenous elements like Al, K and Fe mirror the importance of the humid (fluvial) influence in the north of the study area and the dominance of aeolian input in the south. Furthermore, the distributions of Ti and Fe in the surface sediments serve as tracers for the supply of eolian volcanic material from the Canary Islands. The spatial variability of the TOC contents in the surface sediments closely follows the ocean surface productivity patterns, whereas the CaCO3 contents are mainly controlled by dilution with terrigenous matter. The potential productivity proxy Ba is not a reliable tracer for productivity in this region, since it is mainly supplied by terrigenous input (coupled with aluminosilicates).

Sedimentological and paleoclimatological investigation of two sediment cores off Cape Barbas, North-West Africa

Two box cores taken off Cape Barbas (North-West Africa) have been studied using three methods. The analyses of the coarse fraction, of biogenic opal and of planktonic foraminifera revealed : 1. Core GIK12310-4 penetrates Z, Y, X and upper part of W zone, whereas core GIK12379-1 penetrates Z and upper part of Y zone. 2. Holocene sedimentation rates are 2.5 cm/1000 y for core GIK12310-4 and 6.0 cm/1000 y for core GIK12379-1. During the Y zone 5 cm/l000 y were sedimented incore GIK12310-4 and > 10-20 cm/1000 y in core GIK12379-1. 3. Paleoclimatohgical results are: arid climate and relatively warm water temperatures during the Holocene (Z zone) and during X zone; humid climate and relatively cool water temperatures within the Wuerm (Y zone) (with a non-dated more arid interval found in the middle part of the Y zone) and in the upper part of the W zone. 4. Increased contents of benthos and radiolaria in the Y zone indicate upwelling. Upwelling, characterized by high content of biogenic opal and low water temperatures, was found in core GIK12310-4 at 250 to 350 cm in the lower part of the Y zone. The plankton/benthos ratio of foraminifera, the benthos/radiolaria ratio and water temperatures derived from planktonic foraminifera, differ in both cores in the Holocene, and are nearly identical during the Wuerm.