Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Response surface models to predict broiler performance and applications for economic analysis

A study was carried out to elaborate response surface models using broiler performance data recovered from literature in order to predict performance and elaborate economic analyses. Nineteen studies published between 1995 and 2005 were retrieved using the systematic literature review method. Weight gain and feed conversion data were collected from eight studies that fulfilled the pre-established inclusion criteria, and a response surface model was adjusted using crude protein, environmental temperature, and age as independent variables. The models produced for weight gain (r² = 0.93) and feed conversion (r² = 0.85) were accurate, precise, and not biased. Protein levels, environmental temperature and age showed linear and quadratic effects on weight gain and feed conversion. There was no interaction between protein level and environmental temperature. Age and crude protein showed interaction for weight gain and feed conversion, whereas interaction between age and temperature was detected only for weight gain. It was possible to perform economic analyses to determine maximum profit as a function of the variables that were included in the model. It was concluded that the response surface models are effective to predict the performance of broiler chickens and allow the elaboration of economic analyses to optimize profit.

Generalized linear mixed models for the genetic evaluation of binary reproductive traits: a simulation study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Fluoride dose response in pH-cycling models using bovine enamel

The aim of this study was to establish methodologies for verification of the fluoride solution dose-response relationship using bovine enamel and pH-cycling models. Six models of the cariogenic challenge were performed, varying the time of demineralization and pH, time of remineralization, composition of de- and remineralization solutions, frequency and time of application of treatment solutions and pH-cycling duration. For the evaluation of the fluoride effect on caries dynamics, two proposed models provided for improvement in standardization of methods leading to a higher level of precision, demonstrating a dose response between treatments with regard to surface microhardness and Delta Z. For the evaluation of the fluoride effect on enamel remineralization, the addition of fluoride to the de- and remineralization solutions and the reduction of frequency and time of application of fluoride solutions led to a more suitable pH-cycling model. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Fractional polynomial response surface models

Second-order polynomial models have been used extensively to approximate the relationship between a response variable and several continuous factors. However, sometimes polynomial models do not adequately describe the important features of the response surface. This article describes the use of fractional polynomial models. It is shown how the models can be fitted, an appropriate model selected, and inference conducted. Polynomial and fractional polynomial models are fitted to two published datasets, illustrating that sometimes the fractional polynomial can give as good a fit to the data and much more plausible behavior between the design points than the polynomial model. © 2005 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

Evaluation of the Host Response in Various Models of Induced Periodontal Disease in Mice

Background: The aim of this study is to characterize and evaluate the host response caused by three different models of experimental periodontitis in mice.Methods: C57BL/6 wild-type female mice were distributed into six experimental groups and sacrificed at 7, 15, and 30 days after the induction of periodontal disease: 1) group C: no treatment control group; 2) group L: periodontal disease induced by ligature; 3) group G-Pg: oral gavage with Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg); 4) group G-PgFn: oral gavage with Fusobacterium nucleatum + Pg; 5) group I-Pg: heat-killed Pg injected into the palatal mucosa between the molars; and 6) group I-V: phosphatebuffered saline injected into the palatal mucosa. The samples were used to analyze the immune-inflammatory process in the gingival tissue via descriptive histologic and real-time polymerase chain reaction analyses. The alveolar bone loss was evaluated using microcomputed tomography. The data were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test, followed by a post hoc Dunn test and analysis of variance, followed by a Tukey test using a 5% significance level.Results: Only the ligature model displayed significant alveolar bone loss in the initial period (7 days), which was maintained with time. The group injected with heat-killed Pg displayed significant alveolar bone loss starting from day 15, which continued to progress with time (P < 0.05). A significant increase (P < 0.05) in the gene expression of proinflammatory cytokines (interleukin-6 and -1b) and proteins involved in osteoclastogenesis (receptor activator of nuclear factor-kB ligand and osteoprotegerin) was observed in the ligature group on day 7.Conclusion: The ligature and injection of heat-killed Pg models were the most representative of periodontal disease in humans, whereas the oral gavage models were not effective at inducing the disease under the experimental conditions.

Positioning and number of nutritional levels in dose-response trials to estimate the optimal-level and the adjustment of the models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Microencapsulation of turmeric oleoresin in binary and ternary blends of gum arabic, maltodextrin and modified starch

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Response plateau models fitting via isotonic regression

Within the nutritional context, the supplementation of microminerals in bird food is often made in quantities exceeding those required in the attempt to ensure the proper performance of the animals. The experiments of type dosage x response are very common in the determination of levels of nutrients in optimal food balance and include the use of regression models to achieve this objective. Nevertheless, the regression analysis routine, generally, uses a priori information about a possible relationship between the response variable. The isotonic regression is a method of estimation by least squares that generates estimates which preserves data ordering. In the theory of isotonic regression this information is essential and it is expected to increase fitting efficiency. The objective of this work was to use an isotonic regression methodology, as an alternative way of analyzing data of Zn deposition in tibia of male birds of Hubbard lineage. We considered the models of plateau response of polynomial quadratic and linear exponential forms. In addition to these models, we also proposed the fitting of a logarithmic model to the data and the efficiency of the methodology was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations, considering different scenarios for the parametric values. The isotonization of the data yielded an improvement in all the fitting quality parameters evaluated. Among the models used, the logarithmic presented estimates of the parameters more consistent with the values reported in literature.

Sevoflurane remifentanil interaction: comparison of different response surface models

Various pharmacodynamic response surface models have been developed to quantitatively describe the relationship between two or more drug concentrations with their combined clinical effect. We examined the interaction of remifentanil and sevoflurane on the probability of tolerance to shake and shout, tetanic stimulation, laryngeal mask airway insertion, and laryngoscopy in patients to compare the performance of five different response surface models.

The STEREO/PLASTIC response to solar wind ions (Flight measurements and models)

The Plasma and Supra-Thermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) instrument is one of four experiment packages on board of the two identical STEREO spacecraft A and B, which were successfully launched from Cape Canaveral on 26 October 2006. During the two years of the nominal STEREO mission, PLASTIC is providing us with the plasma characteristics of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions. PLASTIC will also provide key diagnostic measurements in the form of the mass and charge state composition of heavy ions. Three measurements (E/qk, time of flight, ESSD) from the pulse height raw data are used to characterize the solar wind ions from the solar wind sector, and part of the suprathermal particles from the wide-angle partition with respect to mass, atomic number and charge state. In this paper, we present a new method for flight data analysis based on simulations of the PLASTIC response to solar wind ions. We present the response of the entrance system / energy analyzer in an analytical form. Based on stopping power theory, we use an analytical expression for the energy loss of the ions when they pass through a thin carbon foil. This allows us to model analytically the response of the time of flight mass spectrometer to solar wind ions. Thus we present a new version of the analytical response of the solid state detectors to solar wind ions. Various important parameters needed for our models were derived, based on calibration data and on the first flight measurements obtained from STEREO-A. We used information from each measured event that is registered in full resolution in the Pulse Height Analysis words and we derived a new algorithm for the analysis of both existing and future data sets of a similar nature which was tested and works well. This algorithm allows us to obtain, for each measured event, the mass, atomic number and charge state in the correct physical units. Finally, an important criterion was developed for filtering our Fe raw flight data set from the pulse height data without discriminating charge states.