992 resultados para Age-structured model


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Total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, biogenic silica content and total organic carbon/total nitrogen ratios of the Laguna Potrok Aike lacustrine sediment record are used to reconstruct the environmental history of south-east Patagonia during the past 51 ka in high resolution. High lake level conditions are assumed to have prevailed during the Last Glacial, as sediments are carbonate-free. Increased runoff linked to permafrost and reduced evaporation due to colder temperatures and reduced influence of Southern Hemispheric Westerlies (SHW) may have caused these high lake levels with lake productivity being low and organic matter mainly of algal or cyanobacterial origin. Aquatic moss growth and diatom blooms occurred synchronously with southern hemispheric glacial warming events such as the Antarctic A-events, the postglacial warming following the LGM and the Younger Dryas chronozone. During these times, a combination of warmer climatic conditions with related thawing permafrost could have increased the allochthonous input of nutrients and in combination with warmer surface waters increased aquatic moss growth and diatom production. The SHW were not observed to affect southern Patagonia during the Last Glacial. The Holocene presents a completely different lacustrine system because (a) permafrost no longer inhibits infiltration nor emits meltwater pulses and (b) the positioning of the SHW over the investigated area gives rise to strong and dry winds. Under these conditions total organic carbon, total organic carbon/total nitrogen ratios and biogenic silica cease to be first order productivity indicators. On the one hand, the biogenic silica is influenced by dissolution of diatoms due to higher salinity and pH of the lake water under evaporative stress characterizing low lake levels. On the other hand, total organic carbon and total organic carbon/total nitrogen profiles are influenced by reworked macrophytes from freshly exposed lake level terraces during lowstands. Total inorganic carbon remains the most reliable proxy for climatic variations during the Holocene as high precipitation of carbonates can be linked to low lake levels and high autochthonous production. The onset of inorganic carbon precipitation has been associated with the southward shift of the SHW over the latitudes of Laguna Potrok Aike. The refined age-depth model of this record suggests that this shift occurred around 9.4 cal. ka BP.

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Trabalho de Projecto apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências da Educação: área de especialização em Supervisão Pedagógica

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Literature emphasises the sparse research focused in collaborative and open approaches in the design conceptualisation stage, also known as the Fuzzy Front-End (FFE). Presently, the most challenging discussion arising from this specific field of research lies in understanding on whether or not to structure the referred conceptual stage. Accordingly, the established hypothesis behind this study sustains that a structured approach in the FFE would benefit the interdisciplinary dialogue. Therefore, two objectives support this study: to understand the benefits of an interdisciplinary approach in the FFE, and to test one proposed model for this conceptual stage. By means of a small-scale design experiment, this paper pretends to give additional contributions to this area of research, in the context of new product development (NPD). The general research supporting this specific study aims to conceptualise in the area of newly and futuristic aircraft configurations. Hence, this same topic based the conceptualisation process in the conducted ideation sessions, which are conducted by five different teams of three elements each. The results of the different ideation sessions reinforce the contemporary paradigm of Open Innovation (OI), which is based in trust and communication to better collaborate. The postulated hypothesis for this study is partially validated as teams testing the proposed and structured model generally consider that its usage would benefit the integration of different disciplines. Besides, a general feeling that a structured approach integrates different perspectives and gives creativity a focus pervades. Nevertheless, the small-scale of the design experiment attributes some limitations to this study, despite giving new insights in how to better organise coming and more sustained studies. Interestingly, the importance of sketching as an interdisciplinary means of communication is underlined with the obtained results.

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Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the major cause of blindness in the developed world. its pathomechanism is unknown and its late onset, complex genetics and strong environmental components have all hampered investigations. Here we demonstrate the development of an animal model for AMD that reproduces features associated with geographic atrophy, a transgenic mouse line (mcd/mcd) expressing a mutated form of cathepsin D that is enzymatically inactive thus impairing processing of phagocytosed photoreceptor outer segments in the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells. Pigmentary changes indicating RPE cell atrophy and a decreased response to flash electroretinograms were observed in 11- to 12-month-old mcd/mcd mice. Histological studies showed RPE cell proliferation, photoreceptor degeneration, shortening of photoreceptor outer segments, and accumulation of immunoreactive photoreceptor breakdown products in the RPE cells. An accelerated photoreceptor cell death was detected in 12-month-old mcd/mcd mice. Transmission electron microscopy demonstrated presence of basal laminar and linear deposits that are considered to be the hallmarks of AMD. Small hard drusen associated with human age-related maculopathy were absent in the mcd/mcd mouse model at the ages analyzed. in summary, this model presents several features of AMD, thus providing a valuable tool for investigating the underlying biological processes and pathomechanism of AMD.

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015

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In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

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Presenilin 1 (PS1) mutations are responsible for a majority of early onset familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) cases, in part by increasing the production of Abeta peptides. However, emerging evidence suggests other possible effects of PS1 on synaptic dysfunction where PS1 might contribute to the pathology independent of Abeta. We chose to study the L286V mutation, an aggressive FAD mutation which has never been analyzed at the electrophysiological and morphological levels. In addition, we analyzed for the first time the long term effects of wild-type human PS1 overexpression. We investigated the consequences of the overexpression of either wild-type human PS1 (hPS1) or the L286V mutated PS1 variant (mutPS1) on synaptic functions by analyzing synaptic plasticity and associated spine density changes from 3 to 15 months of age. We found that mutPS1 induces a transient increase observed only in 4- to 5-month-old mutPS1 animals in NMDA receptor (NMDA-R)-mediated responses and LTP compared with hPS1 mice and nontransgenic littermates. The increase in synaptic functions is concomitant with an increase in spine density. With increasing age, however, we found that the overexpression of human wild-type PS1 progressively decreased NMDA-R-mediated synaptic transmission and LTP, without neurodegeneration. These results identify for the first time a transient increase in synaptic function associated with L286V mutated PS1 variant in an age-dependent manner. In addition, they support the view that the PS1 overexpression promotes synaptic dysfunction in an Abeta-independent manner and underline the crucial role of PS1 during both normal and pathological aging.

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When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady-state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.

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AIM: Specific factors responsible for interindividual variability should be identified and their contribution quantified to improve the usefulness of biological monitoring. Among others, age is an easily identifiable determinant, which could play an important impact on biological variability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A compartmental toxicokinetic model developed in previous studies for a series of metallic and organic compounds was applied to the description of age differences. Young male physiological and metabolic parameters, based on Reference Man information, were taken from preceding studies and were modified to take into account age based on available information about age differences. RESULTS: Numerical simulation using the kinetic model with the modified parameters indicates in some cases important differences due to age. The expected changes are mostly of the order of 10-20%, but differences up to 50% were observed in some cases. CONCLUSION: These differences appear to depend on the chemical and on the biological entity considered. Further work should be done to improve our estimates of these parameters, by considering for example uncertainty and variability in these parameters. [Authors]

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Environmental xenoestrogens pose a significant health risk for all living organisms. There is growing evidence concerning the different susceptibility to xenoestrogens of developing and adult organisms, but little is known about their genotoxicity in pre-pubertal mammals. In the present study, we developed an animal model to test the sex- and age-specific genotoxicity of the synthetic estrogen diethylstilbestrol (DES) on the reticulocytes of 3-week-old pre-pubertal and 12-week-old adult BALB/CJ mice using the in vivo micronucleus (MN) assay. DES was administered intraperitoneally at doses of 0.05, 0.5, and 5 µg/kg for 3 days and animals were sampled 48, 72 and 96 h, and 2 weeks after exposure. Five animals were analyzed for each dose, sex, and age group. After the DES dose of 0.05 µg/kg, pre-pubertal mice showed a significant increase in MN frequency (P < 0.001), while adults continued to show reference values (5.3 vs 1.0 MN/1000 reticulocytes). At doses of 0.5 and 5 µg/kg, MN frequency significantly increased in both age groups. In pre-pubertal male animals, MN frequency remained above reference values for 2 weeks after exposure. Our animal model for pre-pubertal genotoxicity assessment using the in vivo MN assay proved to be sensitive enough to distinguish age and sex differences in genome damage caused by DES. This synthetic estrogen was found to be more genotoxic in pre-pubertal mice, males in particular. Our results are relevant for future investigations and the preparation of legislation for drugs and environmentally emitted agents, which should incorporate specific age and gender susceptibility.

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A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.