How well can we model stream phosphorus concentrations in agricultural catchments?

Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. We investigate the reasons for this for one model, INCA-P, testing model output against 18 months of daily data in a small Scottish catchment. We examine key model processes and provide recommendations for model improvement and simplification. Improvements to the particulate phosphorus simulation are especially needed. The model evaluation procedure is then generalised to provide a checklist for identifying why model performance may be poor or unreliable, incorporating calibration, data, structural and conceptual challenges. There needs to be greater recognition that current models struggle to produce positive Nash–Sutcliffe statistics in agricultural catchments when evaluated against daily data. Phosphorus modelling is difficult, but models are not as useless as this might suggest. We found a combination of correlation coefficients, bias, a comparison of distributions and a visual assessment of time series a better means of identifying realistic simulations.

Marine protected areas in artisanal fisheries: a spatial bio-economic model based on observations in Costa Rica and Tanzania

In many lower-income countries, the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) involves significant opportunity costs for artisanal fishers, reflected in changes in how they allocate their labor in response to the MPA. The resource economics literature rarely addresses such labor allocation decisions of artisanal fishers and how, in turn, these contribute to the impact of MPAs on fish stocks, yield, and income. This paper develops a spatial bio-economic model of a fishery adjacent to a village of people who allocate their labor between fishing and on-shore wage opportunities to establish a spatial Nash equilibrium at a steady state fish stock in response to various locations for no-take zone MPAs and managed access MPAs. Villagers’ fishing location decisions are based on distance costs, fishing returns, and wages. Here, the MPA location determines its impact on fish stocks, fish yield, and villager income due to distance costs, congestion, and fish dispersal. Incorporating wage labor opportunities into the framework allows examination of the MPA’s impact on rural incomes, with results determining that win-wins between yield and stocks occur in very different MPA locations than do win-wins between income and stocks. Similarly, villagers in a high-wage setting face a lower burden from MPAs than do those in low-wage settings. Motivated by issues of central importance in Tanzania and Costa Rica, we impose various policies on this fishery – location specific no-take zones, increasing on-shore wages, and restricting MPA access to a subset of villagers – to analyze the impact of an MPA on fish stocks and rural incomes in such settings.

Hydropower Energy Simulation Using Mike 11 Model; A Case Study In South Germany's Small Run-Of-River Hydropower Plants

Renewable energy production is a basic supplement to stabilize rapidly increasing global energy demand and skyrocketing energy price as well as to balance the fluctuation of supply from non-renewable energy sources at electrical grid hubs. The European energy traders, government and private company energy providers and other stakeholders have been, since recently, a major beneficiary, customer and clients of Hydropower simulation solutions. The relationship between rainfall-runoff model outputs and energy productions of hydropower plants has not been clearly studied. In this research, association of rainfall, catchment characteristics, river network and runoff with energy production of a particular hydropower station is examined. The essence of this study is to justify the correspondence between runoff extracted from calibrated catchment and energy production of hydropower plant located at a catchment outlet; to employ a unique technique to convert runoff to energy based on statistical and graphical trend analysis of the two, and to provide environment for energy forecast. For rainfall-runoff model setup and calibration, MIKE 11 NAM model is applied, meanwhile MIKE 11 SO model is used to track, adopt and set a control strategy at hydropower location for runoff-energy correlation. The model is tested at two selected micro run-of-river hydropower plants located in South Germany. Two consecutive calibration is compromised to test the model; one for rainfall-runoff model and other for energy simulation. Calibration results and supporting verification plots of two case studies indicated that simulated discharge and energy production is comparable with the measured discharge and energy production respectively.

General equilibrium model with restricted participation in financial markets

The paper analyses a general equilibrium model with financiaI markets in which households may face restrictions in trading financiaI assets such as borrowing constraints and collateral (restricted participation model). However, markets are not assumed to be incomplete. We consider a standard general equilibrium model with H > 1 households, 2 periods and S states of nature in the second period. We show that generically the set of equilibrium allocations ia indeterminate, provided the existence of at least one nominal asset and one household for who some restriction is binding. Suppose there are C > 1 commodities in each state of nature and assets pays in units of some commodity. In this case for each household with binding restrictions it is possible to reduce the set of feasible assets trading and obtain a new equilibrium that utility improve alI those households. There is however an upper bound on the number of households to be improved related to the number of states of nature and the number of commodities. In particular, if the number of households ia smaller than the number of states of nature it is possible to Pareto improve any equilibrium by reducing the feasible choice set for each household.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Implementation of two-stage Hopfield model and its application in nonlinear systems

This paper presents an efficient neural network for solving constrained nonlinear optimization problems. More specifically, a two-stage neural network architecture is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. The main advantage of the developed network is that it treats optimization and constraint terms in different stages with no interference with each other. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require specification of penalty or weighting parameters for its initialization.

Experimental model of bladder instability in rabbits

OBJECTIVE: Propose a new experimental model of bladder instability in rabbits after partial bladder obstruction. MATERIALS and METHODS: Thirty North Folk male rabbits, weighting 1,700 to 2,820 g (mean: 2,162 g) were studied. The animals were distributed in 2 experimental groups, formed by 15 rabbits each: Group 1 - clinical control. In this group there was no surgical intervention; Group 2 - bladder outlet obstruction. In this group, after anesthetizing the animal, urethral cannulation with Foley catheter 10F was performed and then an adjustable plastic bracelet was passed around the bladder neck. It was then adjusted in order to not constrict the urethra. The following parameters were studied in M1 - pre-operative period; M2 - 4 weeks post-operatively moments: 1)- urine culture; 2)- cystometric study; 3)- serum creatinine and BUN. RESULTS: Bladder weight was 2.5 times larger in the group with obstruction than in the control group. Cystometric evaluation showed a significant increase in maximal vesical volume in the final moment at Group G2. However, there was no statistically significant difference among the groups studied. There was no statistically significant difference between maximal detrusor pressure and vesical compliance in the different moments or in the studied groups. There was an absence of uninhibited detrusor contractions in all the animals in group 1, and involuntary contractions were detected in 93% of group 2 animals. There was no significant variation in BUN and serum creatinine either among the groups or in the same group. CONCLUSIONS: We observed in the group with obstruction a bladder weight 2.5 higher than normal bladders. We detected involuntary contractions in 93% of the animals in group 2, establishing this experimental model as appropriate to secondary bladder instability and partial bladder outlet obstruction.

Effect of amniotic membrane transplantation on corneal healing and proteoglycan expression in an experimental model of limbal deficiency in rabbits

PURPOSE. Amniotic membrane transplantation (AMT) has been used as a graft or as a dressing in ocular surface reconstruction, facilitating epithelization, maintaining normal epithelial phenotype, and reducing inflammation, vascularization, and scarring. The corneal transparency is due, at least in part, to the arrangement in orthogonal lamellae of collagen fibrils, surrounded by proteoglycans (PGs). These PGs regulate fibrilogenesis, the matrix assembly, and ultimately the corneal transparency. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of AMT upon the corneal PGs after severe limbal injury.METHODS. Experiments were performed on the right corneas of 22 New Zealand female albino rabbits, and their left corneas were used as matched controls. These animals were divided into 3 groups: G1 (n = 10): total peritomy and keratolimbectomy, followed by application of 0.5 M NaOH; G2 (n = 10): submitted to the same trauma as G1, and treated by AMT; G3: no trauma, only AMT (n = 2). The right corneas of G2 and G3 were covered by DMSO 4 cryopreserved human amniotic membrane, fixed by interrupted 9-0 mononylon sutures, with its stromal face toward the ocular surface. After 7 or 30 days, the corneas were removed and PGs were extracted.RESULTS. Normal corneas contained approximately 9 mg of PGs per gram of dry tissue. AMT on intact cornea (G3) did not cause any changes in the concentration of PGs. In contrast, injured corneas contained much less PGs, both on the seventh and on the 30th day posttrauma. The PG concentration was even lower in injured corneas treated by AMT. This decrease was due almost exclusively to dermatan sulfate PGs, and the structure of dermatan sulfate was also modified, indicating changes in the biosynthesis patterns.CONCLUSIONS. Although beneficial effects have been observed on clinical observation and concentration of soluble proteins after AMT, the normal PG composition of cornea was not attained, even 30 days postinjury, indicating that the normal ocular surface reconstruction, if possible, is a long-term process. (Eur J Ophthalmol 2010; 20: 290-9)

Sequential IL-23 and IL-17 and increased Mmp8 and Mmp14 expression characterize the progression of an experimental model of periodontal disease in type 1 diabetes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mean-field model for Josephson oscillation in a Bose-Einstein condensate on an one-dimensional optical trap

Using the axially-symmetric time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation we study the phase coherence in a repulsive Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped by a harmonic and an one-dimensional optical lattice potential to describe the experiment by Cataliotti et al. on atomic Josephson oscillation [Science 293, 843 (2001)]. The phase coherence is maintained after the BEC is set into oscillation by a small displacement of the magnetic trap along the optical lattice. The phase coherence in the presence of oscillating neutral current across an array of Josephson junctions manifests in an interference pattern formed upon free expansion of the BEC. The numerical response of the system to a large displacement of the magnetic trap is a classical transition from a coherent superfluid to an insulator regime and a subsequent destruction of the interference pattern in agreement With the more recent experiment by Cataliotti et al. [New J. Phys. 5, 71 (2003)].

A mathematical model for wave propagation in elastic tubes with inhomogeneities: Application to blood waves propagation

We study the propagation of waves in an elastic tube filled with an inviscid fluid. We consider the case of inhomogeneity whose mechanical and geometrical properties vary in space. We deduce a system of equations of the Boussinesq type as describing the wave propagation in the tube. Numerical simulations of these equations show that inhomogeneities prevent separation of right-going from left-going waves. Then reflected and transmitted coefficients are obtained in the case of localized constriction and localized rigidity. Next we focus on wavetrains incident on various types of anomalous regions. We show that the existence of anomalous regions modifies the wavetrain patterns. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Search for physics beyond the standard model using multilepton signatures in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with W and Z bosons in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)