Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie

Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.

Lire ou écrire une recherche utilisant des données qualitatives : une grille pour analyser et pour préparer une recherche ou une demande de subvention

Ce document est une version mise-à-jour du document "Lire la recherche utilisant des données qualitatives", décembre 2014 : http://hdl.handle.net/1866/11341

Derecho penal y la obligación de investigar y sancionar graves violaciones de derechos humanos y el derecho internacional humanitario -especial referencia a la sentencia de la corte constitucional colombiana c-579/13-

En el presente trabajo se analiza la obligación de investigar graves violaciones de Derechos Humanos y Derecho Internacional Humanitario, a la luz de la sentencia de la Corte Constitucional Colombiana referente a la constitucionalidad del Marco Jurídico para la paz. De la aparente remisión que hace la Corte Constitucional a la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos sobre el deber de investigar graves violaciones de Derechos Humanos y de Derecho Internacional Humanitario se concluye que la Corte Constitucional propone como premisa mayor una obligación que surge de una interpretación extensiva de la Convención Interamericana. De la misma forma, se estudia el tratamiento indebido del derecho aplicable a las amnistías e indultos, que se relaciona con la necesidad de evitar cualquier tipo de impunidad, cuyo concepto sirve para esclarecer cuáles son los estándares que se quiere proteger. Por último, se analiza el contexto al que se pretende aplicar dicha obligación, es decir, la justicia transicional, proponiendo un modelo interpretativo de los fines de la pena, y su aplicación por medio de la favorabilidad penal, para la justicia transicional, que sea acorde a la interpretación de la Convención Interamericana.

El Outsourcing en la dinámica de sistemas hacia mercados extranjeros

Este trabajo recopila literatura académica relevante sobre estrategias de entrada y metodologías para la toma de decisión sobre la contratación de servicios de Outsourcing para el caso de empresas que planean expandirse hacia mercados extranjeros. La manera en que una empresa planifica su entrada a un mercado extranjero, y realiza la consideración y evaluación de información relevante y el diseño de la estrategia, determina el éxito o no de la misma. De otro lado, las metodologías consideradas se concentran en el nivel estratégico de la pirámide organizacional. Se parte de métodos simples para llegar a aquellos basados en la Teoría de Decisión Multicriterio, tanto individuales como híbridos. Finalmente, se presenta la Dinámica de Sistemas como herramienta valiosa en el proceso, por cuanto puede combinarse con métodos multicriterio.

La desaparición forzada de personas: análisis crítico del derecho administrativo colombiano a través de los estándares del sistema interamericano de protección de derechos humanos. Estudio de caso de los mal llamados “falsos positivos”

La categorización jurídica de los mal llamados “falsos positivos” en Colombia es un tema controversial: en algunas ocasiones se habla de ejecuciones extrajudiciales, otras veces de homicidio en persona protegida y en otros casos de desapariciones forzadas, dependiendo de la institución que juzgue los casos. Ahora bien, al no existir unidad de criterios en la categorización jurídica de los “falsos positivos”, se hace imprescindible la integración de conceptos en torno a entender dichos hechos ilícitos inequívocamente como tales, toda vez que esto permitiría generar seguridad jurídica al interior del derecho administrativo colombiano. Precisamente, en lo a referente a la responsabilidad extracontractual del Estado. De igual manera, el concepto de reparación adoptado en los estamentos de Derecho Administrativo Colombiano, no siempre coincide con los estándares delineados por el Sistema interamericano de protección de Derechos Humanos, lo cual repercute de manera negativa en el tratamiento dado a las víctimas de los “falsos positivos” que encuadran en la categoría de desapariciones forzadas, lo que hace necesario el estudio detallado de las decisiones propias de cada sistema y compararlas, para buscar un mejoramiento de los estándares nacionales de reparación. Para dar un aporte teórico importante, esta investigación partirá del análisis sistemático de la Convención Interamericana sobre Desaparición Forzada de Personas, y la jurisprudencia de la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos, y después inspeccionará los elementos fácticos y la reparación de los “falsos positivos”, determinando el grado de aplicación que se ha dado del sistema interamericano en los fallos proferidos por el Consejo de Estado.

Papers de comunicació : lectures i tècniques d'estudi. 'Papeles de comunicación : lecturas y técnicas de estudio'.

Contiene un resumen gramatical como anexo

Narcolepsy-Associated HLA Class I Alleles Implicate Cell-Mediated Cytotoxicity

OBJECTIVE Narcolepsy with cataplexy is tightly associated with the HLA class II allele DQB1*06:02. Evidence indicates a complex contribution of HLA class II genes to narcolepsy susceptibility with a recent independent association with HLA-DPB1. The cause of narcolepsy is supposed be an autoimmune attack against hypocretin-producing neurons. Despite the strong association with HLA class II, there is no evidence for CD4+ T-cell-mediated mechanism in narcolepsy. Since neurons express class I and not class II molecules, the final effector immune cells involved might include class I-restricted CD8+ T-cells. DESIGN HLA class I (A, B, and C) and II (DQB1) genotypes were analyzed in 944 European narcolepsy with cataplexy patients and in 4043 control subjects matched by country of origin. All patients and controls were DQB1*06:02 positive and class I associations were conditioned on DQB1 alleles. RESULTS HLA-A*11:01 (OR = 1.49 [1.18-1.87] P = 7.0*10-4), C*04:01 (OR = 1.34 [1.10-1.63] P = 3.23*10-3), and B*35:01 (OR=1.46 [1.13-1.89] P = 3.64*10-3) were associated with susceptibility to narcolepsy. Analysis of polymorphic class I amino-acids revealed even stronger associations with key antigen-binding residues HLA-A-Tyr9 (OR = 1.32 [1.15-1.52] P = 6.95*10-5) and HLA-C-Ser11 (OR=1.34 [1.15-1.57] P = 2.43*10-4). CONCLUSIONS Our findings provide a genetic basis for increased susceptibility to infectious factors or an immune cytotoxic mechanism in narcolepsy, potentially targeting hypocretin neurons.

Consistent increase in dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in response to high CO2 in five shipboard bioassays from contrasting NW European waters

The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulfur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short-term response of DMS production and cycling and that of its algal precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments. Experiments were performed in June and July 2011, using water collected from contrasting sites in NW European waters (Outer Hebrides, Irish Sea, Bay of Biscay, North Sea). Concentrations of DMS and DMSP, alongside rates of DMSP synthesis and DMS production and consumption, were determined during all experiments for ambient CO2 and three high-CO2 treatments (550, 750, 1000 µatm). In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls (110% (28-223%) at 550 µatm, 153% (56-295%) at 750 µatm and 225% (79-413%) at 1000 µatm), and decreases in DMSP concentrations (28% (18-40%) at 550 µatm, 44% (18-64%) at 750 µatm and 52% (24-72%) at 1000 µatm). Significant decreases in DMSP synthesis rate constants (µDMSP /d) and DMSP production rates (nmol/d) were observed in two experiments (7-90% decrease), whilst the response under high CO2 from the remaining experiments was generally indistinguishable from ambient controls. Rates of bacterial DMS gross consumption and production gave weak and inconsistent responses to high CO2. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships and to move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.

Decreased light availability can amplify negative impacts of ocean acidification on calcifying coral reef organisms

Coral reef organisms are increasingly and simultaneously affected by global and local stressors such as ocean acidification (OA) and reduced light availability. However, knowledge of the interplay between OA and light availability is scarce. We exposed 2 calcifying coral reef species (the scleractinian coral Acropora millepora and the green alga Halimeda opuntia) to combinations of ambient and increased pCO2 (427 and 1073 µatm, respectively), and 2 light intensities (35 and 150 µmol photons/m**2/s) for 16 d. We evaluated the individual and combined effects of these 2 stressors on weight increase, calcification rates, O2 fluxes and chlorophyll a content for the species investigated. Weight increase of A. millepora was significantly reduced by OA (48%) and low light intensity (96%) compared to controls. While OA did not affect coral calcification in the light, it decreased calcification in the dark by 155%, leading to dissolution of the skeleton. H. opuntia weight increase was not affected by OA, but decreased (40%) at low light. OA did not affect algae calcification in the light, but decreased calcification in the dark by 164%, leading to dissolution. Low light significantly reduced gross photosynthesis (56 and 57%), net photosynthesis (62 and 60%) and respiration (43 and 48%) of A. millepora and H. opuntia, respectively. In contrast to A. millepora, H. opuntia significantly increased chlorophyll content by 15% over the course of the experiment. No interactive effects of OA and low light intensity were found on any response variable for either organism. However, A. millepora exhibited additive effects of OA and low light, while H. opuntia was only affected by low light. Thus, this study suggests that negative effects of low light and OA are additive on corals, which may have implications for management of river discharge into coastal coral reefs.

Metabolic responses to temperature stress under elevated pCO2 in Crepidula fornicata

In the current context of environmental change, ocean acidification is predicted to affect the cellular processes, physiology and behaviour of all marine organisms, impacting survival, growth and reproduction. In relation to thermal tolerance limits, the effects of elevated pCO2 could be expected to be more pronounced at the upper limits of the thermal tolerance window. Our study focused on Crepidula fornicata, an invasive gastropod which colonized shallow waters around European coasts during the 20th century. We investigated the effects of 10 weeks' exposure to current (380 µatm) and elevated (550, 750, 1,000 µatm) pCO2 on this engineer species using an acute temperature increase (1 °C/12 h) as the test. Respiration rates were measured on both males (small individuals) and females (large individuals). Mortality increased suddenly from 34 °C, particularly in females. Respiration rate in C. fornicata increased linearly with temperature between 18 and 34 °C, but no differences were detected between the different pCO2 conditions either in the regressions between respiration rate and temperature or in Q10 values. In the same way, condition indices were similar in all the pCO2 treatments at the end of the experiment, but decreased from the beginning of the experiment. This species was highly resistant to acute exposure to high temperature regardless of pCO2 levels, even though food was limited during the experiment. Crepidula fornicata appears to have either developed resistance mechanisms or a strong phenotypic plasticity to deal with fluctuations of physicochemical parameters in its habitat. This suggests that invasive species may be more resistant to future environmental changes than its native competitors.

Light-modulated responses of growth and photosynthetic performance to ocean acidification in the model diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum

Ocean acidification (OA) due to atmospheric CO2 rise is expected to influence marine primary productivity. In order to investigate the interactive effects of OA and light changes on diatoms, we grew Phaeodactylum tricornutum, under ambient (390 ppmv; LC) and elevated CO2 (1000 ppmv; HC) conditions for 80 generations, and measured its physiological performance under different light levels (60 µmol/m**2/s, LL; 200 µmol/m**2/s, ML; 460 µmol/m**2/s, HL) for another 25 generations. The specific growth rate of the HC-grown cells was higher (about 12-18%) than that of the LC-grown ones, with the highest under the ML level. With increasing light levels, the effective photochemical yield of PSII (Fv'/Fm') decreased, but was enhanced by the elevated CO2, especially under the HL level. The cells acclimated to the HC condition showed a higher recovery rate of their photochemical yield of PSII compared to the LC-grown cells. For the HC-grown cells, dissolved inorganic carbon or CO2 levels for half saturation of photosynthesis (K1/2 DIC or K1/2 CO2) increased by 11, 55 and 32%, under the LL, ML and HL levels, reflecting a light dependent down-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs). The linkage between higher level of the CCMs down-regulation and higher growth rate at ML under OA supports the theory that the saved energy from CCMs down-regulation adds on to enhance the growth of the diatom.

Ocean acidification alleviates low-temperature effects on growth and photosynthesis of the red alga Neosiphonia harveyi (Rhodophyta)

This study aimed to examine interactive effects between ocean acidification and temperature on the photosynthetic and growth performance of Neosiphonia harveyi. N. harveyi was cultivated at 10 and 17.5 °C at present (~380 µatm), expected future (~800 µatm), and high (~1500 µatm) pCO2. Chlorophyll a fluorescence, net photosynthesis, and growth were measured. The state of the carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM) was examined by pH-drift experiments (with algae cultivated at 10 °C only) using ethoxyzolamide, an inhibitor of external and internal carbonic anhydrases (exCA and intCA, respectively). Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of acetazolamide (an inhibitor of exCA) and Tris (an inhibitor of the acidification of the diffusive boundary layer) on net photosynthesis was measured at both temperatures. Temperature affected photosynthesis (in terms of photosynthetic efficiency, light saturation point, and net photosynthesis) and growth at present pCO2, but these effects decreased with increasing pCO2. The relevance of the CCM decreased at 10 °C. A pCO2 effect on the CCM could only be shown if intCA and exCA were inhibited. The experiments demonstrate for the first time interactions between ocean acidification and temperature on the performance of a non-calcifying macroalga and show that the effects of low temperature on photosynthesis can be alleviated by increasing pCO2. The findings indicate that the carbon acquisition mediated by exCA and acidification of the diffusive boundary layer decrease at low temperatures but are not affected by the cultivation level of pCO2, whereas the activity of intCA is affected by pCO2. Ecologically, the findings suggest that ocean acidification might affect the biogeographical distribution of N. harveyi.

Multiple stressor effects of near-future elevated seawater temperature and decreased pH on righting and escape behaviors of two common Antarctic gastropods

Warming seawater temperatures and ocean acidification on the coastal western Antarctic Peninsula pose unique challenges to stenothermal marine invertebrates. The present study examines prospective sub-lethal effects of elevated temperature, pCO2, and resultant decrease in seawater pH, on righting behavior and maximal escape speeds for two common gastropods, the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel) and mesogastropod snail Margarella antarctica (Lamy). Replicate individuals held in individual containers were exposed to four combinations of seawater temperature (1.5 °C-current average, 3.5 °C-projected average by 2100) and pH (pH 8.0-current average, pH 7.8-projected average by 2100 as a result of elevated pCO2 levels) for a period of 6 weeks. Following this chronic exposure, righting behavior, determined for the limpets as proportion to right over 24 h and for snails as time to right, as well as maximum escape speed following contact with a sea star predator were measured. We found no significant differences in proportions of limpets displaying the capacity to right among the four temperature-pH treatments. However, there was a significant temperature-pH interaction effect for mean righting times in snails, indicating that the effect of pH on the time to right is dependent on temperature. We found no significant effects of temperature or pH on mean maximal escape speed in limpets. Additionally, we observed a significant temperature-pH interaction effect for mean maximal escape speed in snails. These interactive effects make it difficult to make clear predictions about how these environmental factors may impact behavioral responses.

Adaptive variability to low-pH river discharges in Acartia tonsa and stress responses to high PCO2 conditions

Environmental transitions leading to spatial physical-chemical gradients are of ecological and evolutionary interest because they are able to induce variations in phenotypic plasticity. Thus, the adaptive variability to low-pH river discharges may drive divergent stress responses [ingestion rates (IR) and expression of stress-related genes such as Heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) and Ferritin] in the neritic copepod Acartia tonsa facing changes in the marine chemistry associated to ocean acidification (OA). These responses were tested in copepod populations inhabiting two environments with contrasting carbonate system parameters (an estuarine versus coastal area) in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and assessing an in situ and 96-h experimental incubation under conditions of high pressure of CO2 (PCO2 1200 ppm). Adaptive variability was a determining factor in driving variability of copepods' responses. Thus, the food-rich but colder and corrosive estuary induced a traits trade-off expressed as depressed IR under in situ conditions. However, this experience allowed these copepods to tolerate further exposure to high PCO2 levels better, as their IRs were on average 43% higher than those of the coastal individuals. Indeed, expression of both the Hsp70 and Ferritin genes in coastal copepods was significantly higher after acclimation to high PCO2 conditions. Along with other recent evidence, our findings confirm that adaptation to local fluctuations in seawater pH seems to play a significant role in the response of planktonic populations to OA-associated conditions. Facing the environmental threat represented by the inter-play between multiple drivers of climate change, this biological feature should be examined in detail as a potential tool for risk mitigation policies in coastal management arrangements.