Retinal thickening in HLA-B27 associated acute anterior uveitis: evolution with time and association with severity of inflammatory activity.

Purpose: To describe the evolution of retinal thickness in eyes affected with acute anterior uveitis (AAU) in the course of follow-up and to assess its correlation with severity of inflammatory activity in the anterior chamber. Methods: Design: Prospective, cohort study Setting: Institutional study Patient population: 72 eyes (affected and fellow eyes) of 36 patients Observation procedure: Patients were followed daily until beginning of resolution of inflammatory activity and weekly thereafter. Optical coherence tomography and laser flare photometry were performed at each visit. Treatment consisted of topical corticosteroids Main outcome measures: Retinal thickness of affected eyes, difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes and their evolution in time, association between maximal retinal thickness and initial laser flare photometry. Results: Difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes became significant on average seven days from baseline and remained so through-out follow-up (p<0.001). There was a steep increase in retinal thickness of affected eyes followed by a progressive decrease after reaching a peak value. Maximal difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes was observed between 17 and 25 days from baseline and exhibited a strong, positive correlation with initial laser flare photometry values (p=0.015). Conclusions: Retinal thickness in eyes affected with AAU presents a steep increase over 3 to 4 weeks and then gradually decreases. Severity of inflammation at baseline predicts the amount of retinal thickening in affected eyes. A characteristic pattern of temporal response of retinal anatomy to inflammatory stimuli seems to arise.

Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

Condence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer fromnotorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependencein the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as isoften the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using thestudentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as thechoice of the block size. A particular data-dependent method is proposedto automate the method. As a side note, it is pointed out that symmetricconfidence intervals are preferred over equal-tailed ones, since theyexhibit improved coverage accuracy. The improvements in small sampleperformance are supported by a simulation study.

Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs

This paper provides a method to estimate time varying coefficients structuralVARs which are non-recursive and potentially overidentified. The procedureallows for linear and non-linear restrictions on the parameters, maintainsthe multi-move structure of standard algorithms and can be used toestimate structural models with different identification restrictions. We studythe transmission of monetary policy shocks and compare the results with thoseobtained with traditional methods.

On the closed-form approximation of short-time random strike options

In this paper we propose a general technique to develop first and second order closed-form approximation formulas for short-time options withrandom strikes. Our method is based on Malliavin calculus techniques andallows us to obtain simple closed-form approximation formulas dependingon the derivative operator. The numerical analysis shows that these formulas are extremely accurate and improve some previous approaches ontwo-assets and three-assets spread options as Kirk's formula or the decomposition mehod presented in Alòs, Eydeland and Laurence (2011).

Myocardial infarct size and mortality depend on the time of day-a large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Different studies have shown circadian variation of ischemic burden among patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI), but with controversial results. The aim of this study was to analyze circadian variation of myocardial infarction size and in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter registry. METHODS: This retrospective, registry-based study was based on data from AMIS Plus, a large multicenter Swiss registry of patients who suffered myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2013. Peak creatine kinase (CK) was used as a proxy measure for myocardial infarction size. Associations between peak CK, in-hospital mortality, and the time of day at symptom onset were modelled using polynomial-harmonic regression methods. RESULTS: 6,223 STEMI patients were admitted to 82 acute-care hospitals in Switzerland and treated with primary angioplasty within six hours of symptom onset. Only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with peak CK (p = 0.0001). The maximum average peak CK value (2,315 U/L) was for patients with symptom onset at 23:00, whereas the minimum average (2,017 U/L) was for onset at 11:00. The amplitude of variation was 298 U/L. In addition, no correlation was observed between ischemic time and circadian peak CK variation. Of the 6,223 patients, 223 (3.58%) died during index hospitalization. Remarkably, only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The risk of death from STEMI was highest for patients with symptom onset at 00:00 and lowest for those with onset at 12:00. DISCUSSION: As a part of this first large study of STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty in Swiss hospitals, investigations confirmed a circadian pattern to both peak CK and in-hospital mortality which were independent of total ischemic time. Accordingly, this study proposes that symptom onset time be incorporated as a prognosis factor in patients with myocardial infarction.

Human Resource Information System; Payroll Time Reporting System Guide for Individual Users, April 2003

Guide manual for using the Human Resource Information System for the state of Iowa.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.