1000 resultados para avalanche model


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Validation is an important issue in the development and application of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) models, especially when the outcome of the model cannot be directly observed. Despite this, few frameworks for validating BBNs have been proposed and fewer have been applied to substantive real-world problems. In this paper we adopt the approach by Pitchforth and Mengersen (2013), which includes nine validation tests that each focus on the structure, discretisation, parameterisation and behaviour of the BBNs included in the case study. We describe the process and result of implementing a validation framework on a model of a real airport terminal system with particular reference to its effectiveness in producing a valid model that can be used and understood by operational decision makers. In applying the proposed validation framework we demonstrate the overall validity of the Inbound Passenger Facilitation Model as well as the effectiveness of the validity framework itself.

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The legal arrangements for the management of water resources are currently a complex matrix of rules of various kinds. These rules perform a diverse range of functions. Some are part of what may be described as the macro-legal system for the governance of water resources. This includes paralegal rules in the form of statements of value, objective, outcome or principles . Others are part of the micro-legal system for the governance of water resources. This includes traditional legal rules in the form of statements of standards in relation to individual conduct, behaviour or decision making. These legal arrangements may be international, regional, national or local. Accordingly some apply to nation states within the international community. Others apply to the regulatory agencies making decisions about water resources within nation states. Ultimately most of these legal arrangements apply to those who use and develop water resources for particular purposes and in particular locations. In accordance with this framework, rules explain how water resources should be used in particular circumstances and how decisions should be made to ensure the effective planning and regulation of water resources.

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The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Even following the advent of BIM, we continue to move from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behaviour-related issues which impact the adoption and utilization of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector, and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it, are a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.

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In vivo osteochondral defect models predominantly consist of small animals, such as rabbits. Although they have an advantage of low cost and manageability, their joints are smaller and more easily healed compared with larger animals or humans. We hypothesized that osteochondral cores from large animals can be implanted subcutaneously in rats to create an ectopic osteochondral defect model for routine and high-throughput screening of multiphasic scaffold designs and/or tissue-engineered constructs (TECs). Bovine osteochondral plugs with 4 mm diameter osteochondral defect were fitted with novel multiphasic osteochondral grafts composed of chondrocyte-seeded alginate gels and osteoblast-seeded polycaprolactone scaffolds, prior to being implanted in rats subcutaneously with bone morphogenic protein-7. After 12 weeks of in vivo implantation, histological and micro-computed tomography analyses demonstrated that TECs are susceptible to mineralization. Additionally, there was limited bone formation in the scaffold. These results suggest that the current model requires optimization to facilitate robust bone regeneration and vascular infiltration into the defect site. Taken together, this study provides a proof-of-concept for a high-throughput osteochondral defect model. With further optimization, the presented hybrid in vivo model may address the growing need for a cost-effective way to screen osteochondral repair strategies before moving to large animal preclinical trials.

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Enterprise architectures are exposed to fast emerging business and information technology capabilities. A prominent example is the paradigm of service-orientation, which leads to its own architectural requirements and impacts the design and ongoing evolution of Enterprise Architectures. This thesis develops the first theoretical model describing enterprise architecture evolution and outcomes in light of a changing IT landscape such as service-oriented architectures. The developed theoretical model explains enterprise architecture evolution, its main stages and related capabilities. This model can be used to derive theoretical, sound guidelines to manage enterprise architectures in a changing environment.

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Fluid–Structure Interaction (FSI) problem is significant in science and engineering, which leads to challenges for computational mechanics. The coupled model of Finite Element and Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (FE-SPH) is a robust technique for simulation of FSI problems. However, two important steps of neighbor searching and contact searching in the coupled FE-SPH model are extremely time-consuming. Point-In-Box (PIB) searching algorithm has been developed by Swegle to improve the efficiency of searching. However, it has a shortcoming that efficiency of searching can be significantly affected by the distribution of points (nodes in FEM and particles in SPH). In this paper, in order to improve the efficiency of searching, a novel Striped-PIB (S-PIB) searching algorithm is proposed to overcome the shortcoming of PIB algorithm that caused by points distribution, and the two time-consuming steps of neighbor searching and contact searching are integrated into one searching step. The accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed searching algorithm is studied on by efficiency test and FSI problems. It has been found that the newly developed model can significantly improve the computational efficiency and it is believed to be a powerful tool for the FSI analysis.

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Traditional HCI design and evaluation methods merely focus on functional and usability aspects of a product. Although these aspects are important, they do not guarantee product’s success, especially the consumer product. Many consumer products are now part of user’s everyday activities – that support fun, pleasure, entertainment, etc. Secondly, in today’s consumer market many of the products have become similar in terms of their technology, functionality, price and quality. In response, many companies have started designing products with added emotional and experiential values. This has challenged designer’s to explore and visualize directions in product design field that could evoke intended and desired experiences amongst its users. Subjective product qualities such as fun, pleasure, entertainment, etc. are not the part of a product, but they are better thought of as the outcome of user’s interaction with the product...

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Health care systems are highly dynamic not just due to developments and innovations in diagnosis and treatments, but also by virtue of emerging management techniques supported by modern information and communication technology. A multitude of stakeholders such as patients, nurses, general practitioners or social carers can be integrated by modeling complex interactions necessary for managing the provision and consumption of health care services. Furthermore, it is the availability of Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) that supports those integration efforts by enabling the flexible and reusable composition of autonomous, loosely-coupled and web-enabled software components. However, there is still the gap between SOA and predominantly business-oriented perspectives (e.g. business process models). The alignment of both views is crucial not just for the guided development of SOA but also for the sustainable evolution of holistic enterprise architectures. In this paper, we combine the Semantic Object Model (SOM) and the Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) towards a model-driven approach to service engineering. By addressing a business system in Home Telecare and deriving a business process model, which can eventually be controlled and executed by machines; in particular by composed web services, the full potential of a process-centric SOA is exploited.

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Established Monte Carlo user codes BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc permit the accurate and straightforward simulation of radiotherapy experiments and treatments delivered from multiple beam angles. However, when an electronic portal imaging detector (EPID) is included in these simulations, treatment delivery from non-zero beam angles becomes problematic. This study introduces CTCombine, a purpose-built code for rotating selected CT data volumes, converting CT numbers to mass densities, combining the results with model EPIDs and writing output in a form which can easily be read and used by the dose calculation code DOSXYZnrc...

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The growing gap between engineering practice and engineering has been identified at the level of certain essential skills needed among practising engineers but not developed through the current education system. Coaching approach to learning and teaching has been proven to be an effective way to develop people in the workplace. A pilot coaching program is proposed to engineering students at Queensland University of Technology to enable holistic growth in order to better integrate them to the work force and society at large. The success measures and insights gained will be published on completion of the program. It is hoped that the outcomes of this study will better inform curriculum design and development in the engineering disciplines towards better transition between engineering education and engineering practice.