Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Metabolism of 1,8-Cineole in Rat: Its Effects on Liver and Lung Microsomal Cytochrome P-450 Systems

The monoterpene cyclic ether, cineole (l,8-cineole, I) also known as eucalyptol, is a component of many essential oils and is widely distributed in nature. It is extensively used in pharmaceutical preparations for external application and also as a nasal spray. It was reported earlier that cineole when administered to sheep may be largely oxidized in the system (Scheline 1978). However the mode of metabolism of cineole is not known. Hence the present study was undertaken to investigate the metabolic fate of this ubiquitous terpenoid following its administration to rats by gastric intubation.

High-Tc superconductivity in the Er---Ba---Cu---O and related systems

ErBa2Cu3O7 and Er0.5Y0.5Ba2Cu3O7 are both high-Tc superconductors attaining zero resistance above 80 K. Preliminary studies indicate that Yb1−xYxBa2Cu3O7 also exhibits zero resistance above 77 K.

Comparative immunogenicity of M. hyopneumoniae NrdF encoded in different expression systems delivered orally via attenuated S. typhimurium aroA in mice.

The Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae ribonucleotide reductase R2 subunit (NrdF) gene fragment was cloned into eukaryotic and prokaryotic expression vectors and its immunogenicity evaluated in mice immunized orally with attenuated Salmonella typhimurium aroA CS332 harboring either of the recombinant expression plasmids. We found that NrdF is highly conserved among M. hyopneumoniae strains. The immunogenicity of NrdF was examined by analyzing antibody responses in sera and lung washes, and the cell-mediated immune (CMI) response was assessed by determining the INF-[gamma] level produced by splenocytes upon in vitro stimulation with NrdF antigen. S. typhimurium expressing NrdF encoded by the prokaryotic expression plasmid (pTrcNrdF) failed to elicit an NrdF-specific serum or secretory antibody response, and IFN-[gamma] was not produced. Similarly, S. typhimurium carrying the eukaryotic recombinant plasmid encoding NrdF (pcNrdF) did not induce a serum or secretory antibody response, but did elicit significant NrdF-specific IFN-[gamma] production, indicating induction of a CMI response. However, analysis of immune responses against the live vector S. typhimurium aroA CS332 showed a serum IgG response but no mucosal IgA response in spite of its efficient invasiveness in vitro. In the present study we show that the DNA vaccine encoding the M. hyopneumoniae antigen delivered orally via a live attenuated S. typhimurium aroA can induce a cell-mediated immune response. We also indicate that different live bacterial vaccine carriers may have an influence on the type of the immune response induced.

Enhanced ionic conduction in dispersed solid electrolyte systems CaF2---Al2O3 and CaF2---CeO2

Dispersions of Al2O3 as well as CeO2 in CaF2 are found to enhance the conductivity of CaF2. Both these systems are biphasic and the electrical conduction in them is purely ionic in nature. At 650 K the increase in the ionic conductivity of the dispersed solid electrolyte system CaF2---Al2O3 is by about two orders of magnitude in relation to the conductivity of the host electrolyte CaF2, whereas for the CaF2---CeO2 system it is about three orders of magnitude. Some aspects of the increase in the ionic conductivities of CaF2---Al2O3 and CaF2---CeO2 electrolytes can be explained by a recent theoretical model. It is proposed that a substantial enhancement in the vacancy concentration of CaF2, brought about by the attraction of F− ions to the surface of Al2O3 (or CeO2), is responsible for the low temperature increase in the ionic conductivity of CaF2.

The Origin of Regioselectivity in a-Cleavage Reactions of Cyclopropenethiones: Potential Role of Pseudo-Jahn-Teller Effect in Substituted Cyclopropenyl Systems

Arylalkylcyclopropenethiones undergo highly regioselective photochemical a-cleavage via thioketene carbene intermediates, giving rise to products derived from the less stabilized carbene. UHF MIND0/3 calculations provide an insight into this unexpected regioselectivity. The nx* triplet of cyclopropenethione is calculated to have a highly unsymmetrical geometry with an elongated C-C bond, a delocalized thiaaUyl fragment, and a pyramidal radicaloid carbon (which eventually becomes the carbene center). From this molecular electronic structure, aryl group stabilization is expected to be more effective at the thiaallyl group rather than at the pyramidal radical center. Thus, the stability of the substituted triplet thione rather than that of the thioketene carbene determines the preferred regiochemistry of cleavage. The unusual structure of the cyclopropenethione triplet is suggested to be related to one of the Jahn-Teller distorted forms of the cyclopropenyl radical. An alternative symmetrical structure is adopted by the corresponding triplet of cyclopropenone, partly accounting for its differing photobehavior. A similar structural dichotomy is demonstrated for the corresponding radical anions as well.

Theory For The Anomalous Hall Constant Of Mixed-Valence Systems

We show that the large anomalous Hall constants of mixed-valence and Kondo-lattice systems can be understood in terms of a simple resonant-level Fermi-liquid model. Splitting of a narrow, orbitally unquenched, spin-orbit split, f resonance in a magnetic field leads to strong skew scattering of band electrons. We interpret both the anomalous signs and the strong temperature dependence of Hall mobilities in CeCu2Si2, SmB6, and CePd3 in terms of this theory.

Ultrasonic attenuation in strongly disordered electronic systems

The attenuation of long-wavelength phonons due to their interaction with electronic excitations in disordered systems is investigated here. Lattice strain couples to electronic stress, and thus ultrasonic attenuation measures electronic viscosity. The enhancement and critical divergence of electronic viscosity due to localization effects is calculated for the first time. Experimental consequences for the anomalous increase of ultrasonic attenuation in disordered metals close to the metal-insulator transition are discussed. In the localized regime, the appropriate model is one of electronic two-level systems (TLS’s) coupled to phonons. The TLS consists of a pair of states with one localized state occupied and the other unoccupied. The density of such low-excitation-energy TLS’s is nonzero due to long-range Coulomb interactions. The question of whether these could be significant low-energy excitations in glasses is touched upon.

Integrating grazing and forage systems on marginal cropping lands

Planned grazing systems are being introduced to beef cattle enterprises across the marginal cropping lands of Queensland, as they are on more extensive grazing properties. Systems range from continuous grazing with opportunistic summer rest periods to cell systems with more than 60 paddocks. The aim of planned grazing is to increase production, improve sustainability and increase economic viability from both the pastured and cropping lands of a property. Managing the more intensive grazing systems on native or sown pastures with strategic summer and winter forage crops is a challenge under the variable rainfall conditions. Under favourable conditions, integrating summer and winter crops with summer-growing grass-based pastures offers a wider range of options for breeding, finishing and marketing cattle. The integration of pasture grazing systems with opportunistic forage cropping systems on marginal cropping lands is discussed, and a current research project assessing grazing systems is described.

Drivers for uptake of environmental management systems by pastoralists in western Queensland

Pastoralists from 37 beef cattle and sheep properties in western Queensland developed and implemented an environmental management system (EMS) over 18 months. The EMS implemented by them was customised for the pastoral industry as part of a national EMS pilot project, and staff from this project encouraged and assisted pastoralists during this trial. The 31 pastoralists surveyed at the end of the pilot project identified few benefits of EMS implementation, and these were largely associated with environmental management and sustainability. In terms of the reasons for uptake of an EMS, these pastoralists identified drivers similar to those reported in other primary industry sectors. These included improving property and environmental management, financial incentives, a range of market benefits, assistance with red tape issues, access to other training opportunities and assistance and support with the development of their EMS. However, these drivers are weak, and are not motivating pastoralists to adopt an EMS. In contrast, barriers to adoption such as the time involved in developing and implementing EMS are tangible and immediate. Given a lack of effective drivers and that pastoralists are under considerable pressure from ongoing rural adjustment processes, it is not surprising that an EMS is a low priority. It is concluded that widespread uptake and on-going use of an EMS in the pastoral industry will not occur unless pastoralists are required or rewarded for this by markets, governments, financiers, and regional natural resource management bodies.