Operationalizing the social-ecological systems framework to assess sustainability.

Environmental governance is more effective when the scales of ecological processes are well matched with the human institutions charged with managing human-environment interactions. The social-ecological systems (SESs) framework provides guidance on how to assess the social and ecological dimensions that contribute to sustainable resource use and management, but rarely if ever has been operationalized for multiple localities in a spatially explicit, quantitative manner. Here, we use the case of small-scale fisheries in Baja California Sur, Mexico, to identify distinct SES regions and test key aspects of coupled SESs theory. Regions that exhibit greater potential for social-ecological sustainability in one dimension do not necessarily exhibit it in others, highlighting the importance of integrative, coupled system analyses when implementing spatial planning and other ecosystem-based strategies.

Bayesian Model Averaging in the M-Open Framework

This chapter presents a model averaging approach in the M-open setting using sample re-use methods to approximate the predictive distribution of future observations. It first reviews the standard M-closed Bayesian Model Averaging approach and decision-theoretic methods for producing inferences and decisions. It then reviews model selection from the M-complete and M-open perspectives, before formulating a Bayesian solution to model averaging in the M-open perspective. It constructs optimal weights for MOMA:M-open Model Averaging using a decision-theoretic framework, where models are treated as part of the ‘action space’ rather than unknown states of nature. Using ‘incompatible’ retrospective and prospective models for data from a case-control study, the chapter demonstrates that MOMA gives better predictive accuracy than the proxy models. It concludes with open questions and future directions.

Mechanistic-based Design-Integrated Reliability Validation Framework for Mechanical Systems

Abstract: New product design challenges, related to customer needs, product usage and environments, face companies when they expand their product offerings to new markets; Some of the main challenges are: the lack of quantifiable information, product experience and field data. Designing reliable products under such challenges requires flexible reliability assessment processes that can capture the variables and parameters affecting the product overall reliability and allow different design scenarios to be assessed. These challenges also suggest a mechanistic (Physics of Failure-PoF) reliability approach would be a suitable framework to be used for reliability assessment. Mechanistic Reliability recognizes the primary factors affecting design reliability. This research views the designed entity as a “system of components required to deliver specific operations”; it addresses the above mentioned challenges by; Firstly: developing a design synthesis that allows a descriptive operations/ system components relationships to be realized; Secondly: developing component’s mathematical damage models that evaluate components Time to Failure (TTF) distributions given: 1) the descriptive design model, 2) customer usage knowledge and 3) design material properties; Lastly: developing a procedure that integrates components’ damage models to assess the mechanical system’s reliability over time. Analytical and numerical simulation models were developed to capture the relationships between operations and components, the mathematical damage models and the assessment of system’s reliability. The process was able to affect the design form during the conceptual design phase by providing stress goals to meet component’s reliability target. The process was able to numerically assess the reliability of a system based on component’s mechanistic TTF distributions, besides affecting the design of the component during the design embodiment phase. The process was used to assess the reliability of an internal combustion engine manifold during design phase; results were compared to reliability field data and found to produce conservative reliability results. The research focused on mechanical systems, affected by independent mechanical failure mechanisms that are influenced by the design process. Assembly and manufacturing stresses and defects’ influences are not a focus of this research.

A comprehensive life cycle water analysis framework for residential buildings

Most studies on the environmental performance of buildings focus on energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions. They often neglect to consider the range of other resource demands and environmental impacts associated with buildings, including water. Studies that assess water use in buildings typically consider only operational water, which excludes the embodied water in building materials or the water associated with the mobility of building occupants. A new framework is presented that quantifies water requirements at the building scale (i.e. the embodied and operational water of the building as well as its maintenance and refurbishment) and at the city scale (i.e. the embodied water of nearby infrastructures such as roads, gas distribution and others) and the transport-related indirect water use of building occupants. A case study house located in Melbourne, Australia, is analysed using the new framework. The results show that each of the embodied, operational and transport requirements is nearly equally important. By integrating these three water requirements, the developed framework provides architects, building designers, planners and decision-makers with a powerful means to understand and effectively reduce the overall water use and associated environmental impacts of residential buildings.

A computational modelling framework to predict macroscopic phenomena in solder joint formation

A computational model of solder joint formation and the subsequent cooling behaviour is described. Given the rapid changes in the technology of printed circuit boards, there is a requirement for comprehensive models of solder joint formation which permit detailed analysis of design and optimization options. Solder joint formation is complex, involving a range of interacting phenomena. This paper describes a model implementation (as part of a more comprehensive framework) to describe the shape formation (conditioned by surface tension), heat transfer, phase change and the development of elastoviscoplastic stress. The computational modelling framework is based upon mixed finite element and finite volume procedures, and has unstructured meshes enabling arbitrarily complex geometries to be analysed. Initial results for both through-hole and surface-mount geometries are presented.

Predictions of segregation of granular material with the aid of PHYSICA, a 3-D unstructured finite-volume modelling framework

In this paper a continuum model for the prediction of segregation in granular material is presented. The numerical framework, a 3-D, unstructured grid, finite-volume code is described, and the micro-physical parametrizations, which are used to describe the processes and interactions at the microscopic level that lead to segregation, are analysed. Numerical simulations and comparisons with experimental data are then presented and conclusions are drawn on the capability of the model to accurately simulate the behaviour of granular matter during flow.

A framework for historical case-based reasoning

This paper presents a framework for Historical Case-Based Reasoning (HCBR) which allows the expression of both relative and absolute temporal knowledge, representing case histories in the real world. The formalism is founded on a general temporal theory that accommodates both points and intervals as primitive time elements. A case history is formally defined as a collection of (time-independent) elemental cases, together with its corresponding temporal reference. Case history matching is two-fold, i.e., there are two similarity values need to be computed: the non-temporal similarity degree and the temporal similarity degree. On the one hand, based on elemental case matching, the non-temporal similarity degree between case histories is defined by means of computing the unions and intersections of the involved elemental cases. On the other hand, by means of the graphical presentation of temporal references, the temporal similarity degree in case history matching is transformed into conventional graph similarity measurement.

Mathematical modelling of the behaviour of granular material in a computational fluid dynamics framework using micro-mechanical models

In this paper, a Computational Fluid Dynamics framework is presented for the modelling of key processes which involve granular material (i.e. segregation, degradation, caking). Appropriate physical models and sophisticated algorithms have been developed for the correct representation of the different material components in a granular mixture. The various processes, which arise from the micromechanical properties of the different mixture species can be obtained and parametrised in a DEM / experimental framework, thus enabling the continuum theory to correctly account for the micromechanical properties of a granular system. The present study establishes the link between the micromechanics and continuum theory and demonstrates the model capabilities in simulations of processes which are of great importance to the process engineering industry and involve granular materials in complex geometries.