Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

CO2 emission estimation in the urban environment: measurement of the CO2 storage term

Eddy covariance has been used in urban areas to evaluate the net exchange of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Typically, only the vertical flux is measured at a height 2–3 times that of the local roughness elements; however, under conditions of relatively low instability, CO2 may accumulate in the airspace below the measurement height. This can result in inaccurate emissions estimates if the accumulated CO2 drains away or is flushed upwards during thermal expansion of the boundary layer. Some studies apply a single height storage correction; however, this requires the assumption that the response of the CO2 concentration profile to forcing is constant with height. Here a full seasonal cycle (7th June 2012 to 3rd June 2013) of single height CO2 storage data calculated from concentrations measured at 10 Hz by open path gas analyser are compared to a data set calculated from a concurrent switched vertical profile measured (2 Hz, closed path gas analyser) at 10 heights within and above a street canyon in central London. The assumption required for the former storage determination is shown to be invalid. For approximately regular street canyons at least one other measurement is required. Continuous measurements at fewer locations are shown to be preferable to a spatially dense, switched profile, as temporal interpolation is ineffective. The majority of the spectral energy of the CO2 storage time series was found to be between 0.001 and 0.2 Hz (500 and 5 s respectively); however, sampling frequencies of 2 Hz and below still result in significantly lower CO2 storage values. An empirical method of correcting CO2 storage values from under-sampled time series is proposed.

The Cold War and its aftermath in the Americas: the search for a synthetic interpretation of U.S. policy

More than two decades have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the transfer of the Cold War file from a daily preoccupation of policy makers to a more detached assessment by historians. Scholars of U.S.-Latin American relations are beginning to take advantage both of the distance in time and of newly opened archives to reflect on the four decades that, from the 1940s to the 1980s, divided the Americas, as they did much of the world. Others are seeking to understand U.S. policy and inter-American relations in the post-Cold War era, a period that not only lacks a clear definition but also still has no name. Still others have turned their gaze forward to offer policies in regard to the region for the new Obama administration. Numerous books and review essays have addressed these three subjects—the Cold War, the post-Cold War era, and current and future issues on the inter-American agenda. Few of these studies attempt, however, to connect the three subjects or to offer new and comprehensive theories to explain the course of U.S. policies from the beginning of the twentieth century until the present. Indeed, some works and policy makers continue to use the mind-sets of the Cold War as though that conflict were still being fought. With the benefit of newly opened archives, some scholars have nevertheless drawn insights from the depths of the Cold War that improve our understanding of U.S. policies and inter-American relations, but they do not address the question as to whether the United States has escaped the longer cycle of intervention followed by neglect that has characterized its relations with Latin America. Another question is whether U.S. policies differ markedly before, during, and after the Cold War. In what follows, we ask whether the books reviewed here provide any insights in this regard and whether they offer a compass for the future of inter-American relations. We also offer our own thoughts as to how their various perspectives could be synthesized to address these questions more comprehensively.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

Sparse density estimation on multinomial manifold combining local component analysis

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced based on the minimum integrated square error criterion combining local component analysis for the finite mixture model. We start with a Parzen window estimator which has the Gaussian kernels with a common covariance matrix, the local component analysis is initially applied to find the covariance matrix using expectation maximization algorithm. Since the constraint on the mixing coefficients of a finite mixture model is on the multinomial manifold, we then use the well-known Riemannian trust-region algorithm to find the set of sparse mixing coefficients. The first and second order Riemannian geometry of the multinomial manifold are utilized in the Riemannian trust-region algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

Gaze stabilization testing: The efficiency and test-retest reliability of user operated control versus the parameter estimation (PEST) algorithm

The primary objective of this research study is to determine which form of testing, the PEST algorithm or an operator-controlled condition is most accurate and time efficient for administration of the gaze stabilization test

The Bone Formation Capabilities of the Anorganic Bone Matrix-Synthetic Cell-Binding Peptide 15 Grafts in an Animal Periodontal Model: A Histologic and Histomorphometric Study in Dogs

Background: The aim of this study is to verify the regenerative potential of particulate anorganic bone matrix synthetic peptide-15 (ABM-P-15) in class III furcation defects associated or not with expanded polytetrafluoroethylene membranes. Methods: Class III furcation defects were produced in the mandibular premolars (P2, P3, and P4) of six dogs and filled with impression material. The membranes and the bone grafts were inserted into P3 and P4, which were randomized to form the test and control groups, respectively; P2 was the negative control group. The animals were sacrificed 3 months post-treatment. Results: Histologically, the complete closure of class III furcation defects was not observed in any of the groups. Partial periodontal regeneration with similar morphologic characteristics among the groups was observed, however, through the formation of new cementum, periodontal ligament, and bone above the notch. Histologic analysis showed granules from the bone graft surrounded by immature bone matrix and encircled by newly formed tissue in the test group. The new bone formation area found in the negative control group was 2.28 +/- 2.49 mm(2) and in the test group it was 6.52 +/- 5.69 mm(2), which showed statistically significant differences for these groups considering this parameter (Friedman test P <0.05). There was no statistically significant difference among the negative control, control, and test groups for the other parameters. Conclusions: The regenerative potential of ABM-P-15 was demonstrated through new bone formation circumscribing and above the graft particles. The new bone also was accompanied by the formation of new cementum and periodontal ligament fibers. J Periodontol 2010;81:594-603.

Synthetic modified N-POMC(1-28) controls in vivo proliferation and blocks apoptosis in rat adrenal cortex

The identity of the pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC)-derived mitogen in the adrenal cortex has been historically controversial. We have used well-established in vivo models, viz., hypophysectomized (Hyp) or dexamethasone (Dex)-treated rats, to study the effect of the synthetic modified peptide N-terminal POMC (N-POMC(1-28)) on DNA synthesis in the adrenal cortex, as assessed by BrdU incorporation and compared with adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). We evaluated the importance of disulfide bridges on proliferation by employing N-POMC(1-28) without disulfide bridges and with methionines replacing cysteines. Acute administration of synthetic modified N-POMC(1-28) distinctly increased DNA synthesis in the zona glomerulosa and zona fasciculata, but not in the zona reticularis in Hyp rats, whereas in Dex-treated rats, this peptide was effective in all adrenal zones. ACTH administration led to an increase of BrdU-positive cells in all adrenal zones irrespective of the depletion of Hyp or Dex-POMC peptides. The use of the ACTH antagonist, ACTH(7-38), confirmed the direct participation of ACTH in proliferation. Two different approaches to measure apoptosis revealed that both peptides similarly exerted a protective effect on all adrenocortical zones, blocking the apoptotic cell death induced by hypophysectomy. Thus, ACTH(1-39) and N-POMC(1-28) have similar actions suggesting that the disulfide bridges are important but not essential. Both peptides seem to be important factors determining adrenocortical cell survival throughout the adrenal cortex, reinforcing the idea that each zone can be renewed from within itself.

The proliferative effect of synthetic N-POMC(1-28) peptides in rat adrenal cortex: A possible role for cyclin E

Modified synthetic N-POMC(1-28) without disulfide bridges has been shown to act as an adrenal mitogen. Cyclins and their inhibitors are the major cell cycle controls, but in the adrenal cortex the effect of ACTH and N-POMC on the expression of these proteins remains unclear. In this work, we evaluate the effect of different synthetic N-POMC peptides on the S-phase of the cell cycle. In addition, we examine the cyclin E expression in rat adrenal cortex. Rats treated with dexamethasone were injected with ACTH and/or synthetic modified N-POMC and/or synthetic N-POMC with disulfide bridges. DNA synthesis was determined by BrdU incorporation and protein expression was analyzed by immunoblotting and immunohistochemistry. The results showed that similarly to modified N-POMC without disulfide bridges, administration of synthetic N-POMC with disulfide bridges and the combination of ACTH and N-POMC promoted an increase of BrdU-positive nuclei in adrenal cortex. However, the proliferative effect of N-POMC was comparable to that of ACTH only in the zona glomerulosa. An increase in cyclin E expression was observed 6 h after N-POMC treatment in the outer fraction of the adrenal cortex, in agreement with immunohistochemical findings in the zona glomerulosa. In summary, the effect of synthetic N-POMC with disulfide bridges was similar to modified synthetic N-POMC, increasing proliferation in the adrenal cortex, confirming previous evidence that disulfide bridges are not essential to the N-POMC mitogenic effect. Moreover, cyclin E appears to be involved in the N-POMC- and ACTH-stimulated proliferation in the zona glomerulosa of the adrenal cortex. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative effect of FGF2, synthetic peptides 1-28 N-POMC and ACTH on proliferation in rat adrenal cell primary cultures

There is evidence that pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC)-derived peptides other than adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) have a role in adrenal cell proliferation. We compared the activity of synthetic rat N-terminal POMC fragment 1-28 with disulfide bridges (N-POMC(w)) and without disulfide bridges (N-POMC(w/o)), with the activity of fibroblast growth factor (FGF2), a widely studied adrenal growth factor, and ACTH, in well-characterized pure cultures of both isolated adrenal Glomerulosa (G) and Fasciculata/Reticularis (F/R) cells. Three days of FGF2-treatment had a proliferative effect similar to serum, and synthetic peptide N-POMC(w) induced proliferation more efficiently than N-POMC(w/o). Moreover, both induced proliferation via the ERK1/2 pathway. In contrast, sustained ACTH treatment decreased proliferation and viability through apoptosis induction, but not necrosis, and independently of PKA and PKC pathways. Further elucidation of 1-28 POMC signal transduction is of interest, and primary cultures of adrenal cells were found to be useful for examining the trophic activity of this peptide.

Differential Antitumor Effects of IgG and IgM Monoclonal Antibodies and Their Synthetic Complementarity-Determining Regions Directed to New Targets of B16F10-Nex2 Melanoma Cells

Malignant melanoma has increased incidence worldwide and causes most skin cancer-related deaths. A few cell surface antigens that can be targets of antitumor immunotherapy have been characterized in melanoma. This is an expanding field because of the ineffectiveness of conventional cancer therapy for the metastatic form of melanoma. In the present work, antimelanoma monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were raised against B16F10 cells (subclone Nex4, grown in murine serum), with novel specificities and antitumor effects in vitro and in vivo. MAb A4 (IgG2ak) recognizes a surface antigen on B16F10-Nex2 cells identified as protocadherin beta(13). It is cytotoxic in vitro and in vivo to B16F10-Nex2 cells as well as in vitro to human melanoma cell lines. MAb A4M (IgM) strongly reacted with nuclei of permeabilized murine tumor cells, recognizing histone 1. Although it is not cytotoxic in vitro, similarly with mAb A4, mAb A4M significantly reduced the number of lung nodules in mice challenged intravenously with B16F10-Nex2 cells. The V(H) CDR3 peptide from mAb A4 and V(L) CDR1 and CDR2 from mAb A4M showed significant cytotoxic activities in vitro, leading tumor cells to apoptosis. A cyclic peptide representing A4 CDR H3 competed with mAb A4 for binding to melanoma cells. MAb A4M CDRs L1 and L2 in addition to the antitumor effect also inhibited angiogenesis of human umbilical vein endothelial cells in vitro. As shown in the present work, mAbs A4 and A4M and selected CDR peptides are strong candidates to be developed as drugs for antitumor therapy for invasive melanoma.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Bayesian nonlinear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions: Estimation and case influence diagnostics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical nonlinear regression models since the error distributions cover both skewness and heavy-tailed distributions such as the skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions. The main advantage of these class of distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation that allows the implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples from the joint posterior distribution. In order to examine the robust aspects of this flexible class, against outlying and influential observations, we present a Bayesian case deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Further, some discussions on the model selection criteria are given. The newly developed procedures are illustrated considering two simulations study, and a real data previously analyzed under normal and skew-normal nonlinear regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models: Full Bayesian analysis

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian approach for log-Birnbaum-Saunders Student-t regression models under right-censored survival data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the considered model. In order to attenuate the influence of the outlying observations on the parameter estimates, we present in this paper Birnbaum-Saunders models in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. Also, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given and case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The developed procedures are illustrated with a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.