A simple model of multiple equilibria and default. CEPS Working Document No. 366, 16 July 2012

This Working Document by Daniel Gros presents a simple model that incorporates two types of sovereign default cost: first, a lump-sum cost due to the fact that the country does not service its debt fully and is recognised as being in default status, by ratings agencies, for example. Second, a cost that increases with the size of the losses (or haircut) imposed on creditors whose resistance to a haircut increases with the proportional loss inflicted upon them. One immediate implication of the model is that under some circumstances the creditors have a (collective) interest to forgive some debt in order to induce the country not to default. The model exhibits a potential for multiple equilibria, given that a higher interest rate charged by investors increases the debt service burden and thus the temptation to default. Under very high debt levels credit rationing can set in as the feedback loop between higher interest rates and the higher incentive to default can become explosive. The introduction of uncertainty makes multiple equilibria less likely and reduces their range.

Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

Modeling Habitat Associations for the Common Loon (Gavia immer) at Multiple Scales in Northeastern North America

Common Loon (Gavia immer) is considered an emblematic and ecologically important example of aquatic-dependent wildlife in North America. The northern breeding range of Common Loon has contracted over the last century as a result of habitat degradation from human disturbance and lakeshore development. We focused on the state of New Hampshire, USA, where a long-term monitoring program conducted by the Loon Preservation Committee has been collecting biological data on Common Loon since 1976. The Common Loon population in New Hampshire is distributed throughout the state across a wide range of lake-specific habitats, water quality conditions, and levels of human disturbance. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the association of Common Loon and breeding habitat within three natural physiographic ecoregions of New Hampshire. These multiple scales reflect Common Loon-specific extents such as territories, home ranges, and lake-landscape influences. We developed ecoregional multiscale models and compared them to single-scale models to evaluate model performance in distinguishing Common Loon breeding habitat. Based on information-theoretic criteria, there is empirical support for both multiscale and single-scale models across all three ecoregions, warranting a model-averaging approach. Our results suggest that the Common Loon responds to both ecological and anthropogenic factors at multiple scales when selecting breeding sites. These multiscale models can be used to identify and prioritize the conservation of preferred nesting habitat for Common Loon populations.

Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

An improved algorithm for generating global window brightness temperatures from multiple satellite infrared imagery

An improved algorithm for the generation of gridded window brightness temperatures is presented. The primary data source is the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, level B3 data, covering the period from July 1983 to the present. The algorithm rakes window brightness, temperatures from multiple satellites, both geostationary and polar orbiting, which have already been navigated and normalized radiometrically to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, and generates 3-hourly global images on a 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude grid. The gridding uses a hierarchical scheme based on spherical kernel estimators. As part of the gridding procedure, the geostationary data are corrected for limb effects using a simple empirical correction to the radiances, from which the corrected temperatures are computed. This is in addition to the application of satellite zenith angle weighting to downweight limb pixels in preference to nearer-nadir pixels. The polar orbiter data are windowed on the target time with temporal weighting to account for the noncontemporaneous nature of the data. Large regions of missing data are interpolated from adjacent processed images using a form of motion compensated interpolation based on the estimation of motion vectors using an hierarchical block matching scheme. Examples are shown of the various stages in the process. Also shown are examples of the usefulness of this type of data in GCM validation.

Using triangulation to identify word senses

Word sense disambiguation is the task of determining which sense of a word is intended from its context. Previous methods have found the lack of training data and the restrictiveness of dictionaries' choices of senses to be major stumbling blocks. A robust novel algorithm is presented that uses multiple dictionaries, the Internet, clustering and triangulation to attempt to discern the most useful senses of a given word and learn how they can be disambiguated. The algorithm is explained, and some promising sample results are given.

The indoor localization system using vision for multiple mobile robots

This paper presents the development of an indoor localization system using camera vision. The localization system has a capability to determine 2D coordinate (x, y) for a team of mobile robots, Miabot. The experimental results show that the system outperforms our existing sonar localizer both in accuracy and a precision.