Tourism time series forecast

In this chapter four combinations of input features and the feedforward, cascade forward and recurrent architectures are compared for the task of forecast tourism time series. The input features of the ANNs consist in the combination of the previous 12 months, the index time modeled by two nodes used to the year and month and one input with the daily hours of sunshine (insolation duration). The index time features associated to the previous twelve values of the time series proved its relevance in this forecast task. The insolation variable can improved results with some architectures, namely the cascade forward architecture. Finally, the experimented ANN models/architectures produced a mean absolute percentage error between 4 and 6%, proving the ability of the ANN models based to forecast this time series. Besides, the feedforward architecture behaved better considering validation and test sets, with 4.2% percentage error in test set.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand

A la hora de aplicar medidas desestacionalizadoras, a los gestores de destinos turísticos les resulta complicado identificar qué tipo de turistas contribuyen a la desestacionalización, ya que estos turistas potenciales pueden estar pasando desapercibido por no disponer de una metodología que los identifique. Teniendo en cuenta esta deficiencia, en esta tesis se ha querido conseguir un enfoque de medición que proporcione información acerca del tipo de turista objetivo para reducir la concentración estacional en los destinos analizados. Para ello, la metodología que se emplea en esta tesis, que incluye la descomposición aditiva del índice de Gini, proporciona información acerca de la contribución de cada segmento de demanda a la concentración estacional total de un destino. Mediante el empleo de dicha descomposición, el componente estacional puede ser expresado a través de unos efectos relativos marginales que permiten identificar a aquellos turistas que se manifiesten más favorables para reducir la estacionalidad. De manera complementaria, se han estimado los factores estacionales mediante el método multiplicativo que sirven para mejorar el análisis ya que proporcionan los patrones estacionales de los segmentos de demanda analizados. Además, según el destino analizado, se han utilizado clasificaciones complejas atendiendo al origen del turista, su principal motivación de viaje y la región visitada dentro de cada uno de los destinos analizados, las cuales, han permitido discernir con mayor precisión dentro de clasificaciones poco homogéneas. La metodología empleada en esta tesis se propone como una medida de control y seguimiento con la que, analizando la evolución de los efectos relativos marginales a lo largo del período de los que se dispongan datos suficientemente desagregados y, sobre todo, del último año, podrían ajustarse las políticas turísticas orientadas a reducir los efectos de la estacionalidad. Con la aplicación de la metodología propuesta en los destinos turísticos analizados, en los que se ha empleado un nivel de desagregación suficiente, se pretende aportar información adicional a los gestores del turismo en cuanto a qué turistas deben dirigir sus políticas de captación, siempre y cuando su objetivo sea reducir la concentración estacional en estos destinos. Del mismo modo, se pretende conseguir una mejora de la efectividad de las políticas contra la estacionalidad, dirigiéndolas hacia aquellos segmentos de demanda identificados como menos propensos a la estacionalidad. Esta tesis ha sido elaborada por compendio de publicaciones y se ha estructurado en siete capítulos. El primer capítulo es una introducción donde se presentan las implicaciones de esta tesis en cuanto a los aspectos relacionados con la estacionalidad, así como la metodología empleada para la medición de la misma en los destinos analizados. En los siguientes capítulos se analiza la concentración estacional de tres destinos y sus regiones: el litoral de Andalucía (segundo y tercer capítulo), Argentina (cuarto y quinto capítulo), y el Reino Unido (sexto capítulo). Los resultados se muestran con la copia incluida de las cinco publicaciones que conforman esta tesis. Por último, se proporciona las conclusiones en el séptimo capítulo, donde se muestra un análisis general y un resumen de las conclusiones de todas las contribuciones.

Analysis and Visualisation of Crowd-sourced Tourism Data

C3S2E '16 Proceedings of the Ninth International C* Conference on Computer Science & Software Engineering

The commodification of culture in the Thai tourism context: a study of culinary experiences in touristic traditional markets

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the relationship between tourism and the local culture expressed in culinary experiences offered in the traditional, nostalgic-themed markets that have arisen as popular attractions in the 21 st century. Central to the thesis is an examination of how the traditional cultural values are articulated in the production, promotion and consumption of culinary experiences in order to understand the value of culture when embedded in the process of commodification, as well as to understand influential socio-cultural factors. The thesis investigates the potential of traditional markets to promote food as the main attraction in the market. Field studies were conducted from December 2012–March 2014 in eight traditional markets in the central region of Thailand. Based on the ethnographic approach in studying the narratives in the markets, a variety of methods were implemented in the process of data collection. Besides observational analysis of the venue, semi-structured interviews and the self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data from actors who engage in food experiences, including management team members, food traders and visitors. Data was also collected from interviews with officers working for Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).  Keys findings of the thesis reveal that the cultural expressions of food experience in each market is an outcome of both the interactions of worldviews expressed by actors involved in the traditional market and the socio-cultural condition of Thailand. The relationships between stakeholders’ attitudes towards food experiences and the commercial potentials and limitations of food were analysed. The analysis of the cultural value of culinary experiences demonstrates that the existing academic discussions of the authenticity of tourism are insightful in explaining the character of food experiences offered in this tourism scenario. Most importantly, authenticity in tourism experiences, being a desirable element in culinary experiences, is a reflection of the how the pre-modern aspect of Thai society is embraced in a contemporary context. In addition, the commodification of culinary culture generates multidimensional consequences on the value of traditional culture and local lives. Moreover, the performance of culinary experiences can be viewed from the perspective of how Thai society interacts with globalization. The thesis also points out that it is possible to compare the situation of the traditional markets with the marketing positioning of food in Thai tourism marketing policy.

Information and communication technologies in tourism: challenges and trends

The integration of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in the tourism industry is an essential element for the success of any tourism enterprise. ICTs provide access to information of tourism products from anywhere and at any time. Tour companies may also reach out to target customers around the world through a series of emerging technologies. This paper aims to make a review of the main key factors of ICT in Tourism. Aspects such as the quality of the website, Digital Marketing, Social Networking, Multimedia, Mobile Technologies and Intelligent Environments are discussed.

Health tourism trends in the United Kingdom: Are they net exporters of health services?

The study investigates the inbound and outbound health tourism in the United Kingdom (UK) to determine if the UK can be considered as a net exporter of health services. Although there is an increasing number of studies analysing the phenomenon of health tourism, little empirical data are available. This paper contributes to reducing this gap by providing reliable data on health tourism flows for the British case. Using microdata drawn from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for the period 2000-2014, we estimate the flows, number of nights and expenditure of tourists looking for medical treatment who complete international visits of less than 12 months’ duration to and from the UK. In addition, we analyse the main destinations of UK residents (outbound health tourists), and country of origin of overseas residents (inbound health tourists). The results show the upward trend of inbound and outbound patients (163 and 364% during the period 2000-2014, respectively), the strong seasonality in outbound patients (lower during the summer), and the significant increase in the levels of expenditure of overseas residents since 2005. Poland, France, India and Hungry are the chosen countries by UK residents to be treated, whereas Irish Republic, Spain, United Arab Emirates and Greece are the main countries providing inbound health patients. Public policy considerations are given.

Rural tourism destination competitiveness: Portugal vs Belarus

This research presents a study aimed to evaluate the performance and competitiveness of tourist destinations in Portugal and Belarus within regions. The evaluation was performed under an analytical tool, Market Share Analysis proposed by Faulkner (1997). In addition, it was used some descriptive statistics. The conducted analysis concluded, with respect to the evolution of the destinations tourism that Açores Island is the most prosperous market for the majority of countries, because most countries staid in the zone of Performing market. North, Lisbon and Algarve regions are maturity markets for the most countries, because they stay in Stagnant markets zone. Centre and Alentejo regions could be attributed Emerging markets for the majority of countries once are developing markets. The major market share is occupied by Portugal practically for all regions, except islands. It is also necessary to underline, that the research was made only within two years (2013 and 2014), because of the lack of necessary information in previous years. In the case of Belarus, it could be mentioned, that rural market of this country is developing (but still mostly with neighbour countries), because the number of entities, participating in rural tourism is growing as the number of foreign tourists.

Innovative approaches of regional policy of rural tourism development

The present work intends to study Rural Tourism. More specifically: regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Purpose of this research is creation of innovative qualitative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development for Ukraine. With this aim literature review was made, developed a research methodology and analysis made. It was established a way of creation of qualitative model, based on studied information and scientific papers. Research methodology was described in next part. Decided to do it in three stages: (1) justification of analytical research; (2) data sample collection and analysis; (3) creating of innovative model of regional policy of Rural Tourism development. Each of these stages have sub stages supported by results of previous. In accordance to methodology, analytical part was made in two steps: (1) analysis of statistical information about rural houses availability; (2) analysis of resources needed for successfully Rural Tourism activity. This part gave information about placement of rural houses by geographical regions and defined most attractive geographical regions for Rural Tourism development. The results showed that the highest rural houses availability is in Western geographical region. Other regions have low level of rural houses availability. However, analysis of resources needed for successful Rural Tourism development showed, that all geographical regions are attractive for organizing Rural Tourism activity. Based on this information an innovative qualitative model of Rural Tourism development was created.

Costa del Sol (Spain), analysis of economic and land changes caused by tourism

Malaga is in southern Spain, in a region called Andalusia. Costa del Sol belongs to the province of Malaga, near the Strait of Gibraltar and near the coast of Africa (about 300 km) and about 2,300 km of Sluptz. The Costa del Sol is next to the Mediterranean Sea and near the Atlantic Ocean. Strong and rapid growth of tourism in the countries of southern Europe and in Poland. Spain currently (2015) is the third largest inbound of international tourism (68 mil.) and the second inbound in tourism revenue. Europe is a major world tourist region. The first recipient of tourism in the world is France. Most tourism takes place between developed countries.

Tourism Destination Management: A Collaborative Approach

Part 6: Engineering and Implementation of Collaborative Networks

Seasonal concentration of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean

This research delves into analyzing the seasonality of cruise tourism in the Mediterranean by using the decomposition of the Gini index, used in the field of cruise tourism for the first time in literature. This study specifically used the decomposition to evaluate the contribution degree of each port to the global seasonal concentration of each Mediterranean region. Moreover, a cluster analysis technique (bootstrapped bagged clustering) was applied to classify the ports into homogeneous groups according to their seasonal patterns given the significant heterogeneity revealed in the major regions of the Mediterranean. The methodology applied can serve as a control and monitoring tool for measuring seasonal concentration levels in cruise tourism, allowing for policies against seasonality to be tailored in the cruise tourism segment.