Total risk rating and stability analysis of embankment dams in the Kachchh Region, Gujarat, India

A method for total risk analysis of embankment dams under earthquake conditions is discussed and applied to the selected embankment dams, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati located in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India, to obtain the seismic hazard rating of the dam site and the risk rating of the structures. Based on the results of the total risk analysis of the dams, coupled non-linear dynamic numerical analyses of the dam sections are performed using acceleration time history record of the Bhuj (India) earthquake as well as five other major earthquakes recorded worldwide. The objective of doing so is to perform the numerical analysis of the dams for the range of amplitude, frequency content and time duration of input motions. The deformations calculated from the numerical analyses are also compared with other approaches available in literature, viz, Makdisi and Seed (1978) approach, Jansen's approach (1990), Swaisgood's method (1995), Bureau's method (1997). Singh et al. approach (2007), and Saygili and Rathje approach (2008) and the results are utilized to foresee the stability of dams in future earthquake scenario. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antioxidants, weight change and risk of type 2 diabetes

The incidence of type 2 diabetes has increased rapidly worldwide. Obesity is one of the most important modifiable risk factors of type 2 diabetes: weight gain increases and weight loss decreases the risk. However, the effects of weight fluctuation are unclear. Reactive oxygen species are presumably part of the complicated mechanism for the development of insulin resistance and beta-cell destruction in the pancreas. The association of antioxidants with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes has been studied in longitudinal prospective human studies, but so far there is no clear conclusion about protective effect of dietary or of supplementary antioxidants on diabetes risk. The present study examined 1) weight change and fluctuation as risk factors for incident type 2 diabetes; 2) the association of baseline serum alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene concentration and dietary intake of antioxidants with the risk of type 2 diabetes; 3) the effect of supplementation with alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene on the risk of incident type 2 diabetes; and on macrovascular complications and mortality among type 2 diabetics. This investigation was part of the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled prevention trial, which has undertaken to examine the effect of alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene supplementation on the development of lung cancer, other cancers, and cardiovascular diseases in male smokers aged 50-69 years at baseline. Participants were assigned to receive either 50 mg alpha-tocopherol, 20mg beta-carotene, both, or placebo daily in a 2 x 2 factorial design experiment during 1985-1993. Cases of incident diabetes were identified through a nationwide register of drug reimbursements of the Social Insurance Institution. At baseline 1700 men had a history of diabetes. Among those (n = 27 379) with no diabetes at baseline 305 new cases of type 2 diabetes were recognized during the intervention period and 705 during the whole follow-up to 12.5 years. Weight gain and weight fluctuation measured over a three year period were independent risk factors for subsequent incident type 2 diabetes. Relative risk (RR) was 1.77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-2.17) for weight gain of at least 4 kg compared to those with a weight change of less than 4 kg. The RR in the highest weight fluctuation quintile compared to the lowest was 1.64 (95% CI 1.24-2.17). Dietary tocopherols and tocotrienols as well as dietary carotenoids, flavonols, flavones and vitamin C were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Baseline serum alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene concentrations were not associated with the risk of incident diabetes. Neither alpha-tocopherol nor beta-carotene supplementation affected the risk of diabetes. The relative risks for participants who received alpha-tocopherol compared with nonrecipients and for participants who received beta-carotene compared with nonrecipients were 0.92 (95% CI 0.79-1.07) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.85-1.15), respectively. Furthermore, alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene supplementation did not affect the risk of macrovascular complications or mortality of diabetic subjects during the 19 years follow-up time. In conclusion, in this study of older middle-aged male smokers, weight gain and weight fluctuation were independent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Intake of antioxidants or serum alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene concentrations were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Supplementation with of alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene did not prevent type 2 diabetes. Neither did they prevent macrovascular complications, or mortality among diabetic subjects.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (< 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (PIENEMPI KUIN 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

Introduction of high-content screening method for studying drug-induced mitochondrial dysfunction in hepatocytes

Drug induced liver injury is one of the frequent reasons for the drug removal from the market. During the recent years there has been a pressure to develop more cost efficient, faster and easier ways to investigate drug-induced toxicity in order to recognize hepatotoxic drugs in the earlier phases of drug development. High Content Screening (HCS) instrument is an automated microscope equipped with image analysis software. It makes the image analysis faster and decreases the risk for an error caused by a person by analyzing the images always in the same way. Because the amount of drug and time needed in the analysis are smaller and multiple parameters can be analyzed from the same cells, the method should be more sensitive, effective and cheaper than the conventional assays in cytotoxicity testing. Liver cells are rich in mitochondria and many drugs target their toxicity to hepatocyte mitochondria. Mitochondria produce the majority of the ATP in the cell through oxidative phosphorylation. They maintain biochemical homeostasis in the cell and participate in cell death. Mitochondria is divided into two compartments by inner and outer mitochondrial membranes. The oxidative phosphorylation happens in the inner mitochondrial membrane. A part of the respiratory chain, a protein called cytochrome c, activates caspase cascades when released. This leads to apoptosis. The aim of this study was to implement, optimize and compare mitochondrial toxicity HCS assays in live cells and fixed cells in two cellular models: human HepG2 hepatoma cell line and rat primary hepatocytes. Three different hepato- and mitochondriatoxic drugs (staurosporine, rotenone and tolcapone) were used. Cells were treated with the drugs, incubated with the fluorescent probes and then the images were analyzed using Cellomics ArrayScan VTI reader. Finally the results obtained after optimizing methods were compared to each other and to the results of the conventional cytotoxicity assays, ATP and LDH measurements. After optimization the live cell method and rat primary hepatocytes were selected to be used in the experiments. Staurosporine was the most toxic of the three drugs and caused most damage to the cells most quickly. Rotenone was not that toxic, but the results were more reproducible and thus it would serve as a good positive control in the screening. Tolcapone was the least toxic. So far the conventional analysis of cytotoxicity worked better than the HCS methods. More optimization needs to be done to get the HCS method more sensitive. This was not possible in this study due to time limit.

Effect of soil preparation of boreal spruce forest on air and soil temperature conditions in forest regeneration areas.

The effect of scarification, ploughing and cross-directional plouhing on temperature conditions in the soil and adjacent air layer have been studied during 11 consecutive growth periods by using an unprepared clear-cut area as a control site. The maximum and minimum temperatures were measured daily in the summer months, and other temperature observations were made at four-hour intervals by means of a Grant measuring instrument. The development of the seedling stand was also followed in order to determine its shading effect on the soil surface. Soil preparation decreased the daily temperature amplitude of the air at the height of 10 cm. The maximum temperatures on sunny days were lower in the tilts of the ploughed and in the humps of the cross-directional ploughed sites compared with the unprepared area. Correspondingly, the night temperatures were higher and so the soil preparation considerably reduced the risk of night frost. In the soil at the depth of 5 cm, soil preparation increased daytime temperatures and reduced night temperatures compared with unprepared area. The maximum increase in monthly mean temperatures was almost 5 °C, and the daily variation in the surface parts of the tilts and humps increased so that excessively high temperatures for the optimal growth of the root system were measured from time to time. The temperature also rose at the depths of 50 and 100 cm. Soil preparation also increased the cumulative temperature sum. The highest sums accumulated during the summer months were recorded at the depth of 5 cm in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area (1127 dd.) and in the tilts of the ploughed area (1106 dd.), while the corresponding figure in the unprepared soil was 718 dd. At the height of 10 cm the highest temperature sum was 1020 dd. in the hump, the corresponding figure in the unprepared area being 925 dd. The incidence of high temperature amplitudes and percentage of high temperatures at the depth of 5 cm decreased most rapidly in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area and in the ploughing tilts towards the end of the measurement period. The decrease was attributed principally to the compressing of tilts, the ground vegetation succession and the growth of seedlings. The mean summer temperature in the unprepared area was lower than in the prepared area and the difference did not diminish during the period studied. The increase in temperature brought about by soil preparation thus lasts at least more than 10 years.

Factor V Leiden as risk factor for pregnancy complications : Epidemiological study of Finnish women

Factor V Leiden (FV Leiden) is the most common inherited thrombophilia in Caucasians increasing the risk for venous thrombosis. Its prevalence in Finland is 2-3%. FV Leiden has also been associated with several pregnancy complications. However, the importance of FV Leiden as their risk factor is unclear. The aim of the study was to assess FV Leiden as a risk factor for pregnancy complications in which prothrombotic mechanisms may play a part. Specifically, the study aimed to assess the magnitude of the risk, if any, associated with FV Leiden for pregnancy-associated venous thrombosis, pre-eclampsia, unexplained stillbirth, and preterm birth. The study was conducted as a nested case-control study within a fixed cohort of 100,000 consecutive pregnant women in Finland. The study was approved by the ethics committee of the Finnish Red Cross Blood Service and by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. All participants gave written informed consent. Cases and controls were identified by using national registers. The diagnoses of the 100,000 women identified from the National Register of Blood Group and Blood Group Antibodies of Pregnant Women were obtained from the National Hospital Discharge Register. Participants gave blood samples for DNA tests and filled in questionnaires. The medical records of the participants were reviewed in 49 maternity hospitals in Finland. Genotyping was performed in the Finnish Genome Center. When evaluating pregnancy-associated venous thrombosis (34 cases, 641 controls), FV Leiden was associated with 11-fold risk (OR 11.6, 95% CI 3.6-33.6). When only analyzing women with first venous thrombosis, the risk was 6-fold (OR 5.8, 95% CI 1.6-21.8). The risk was increased by common risk factors, the risk being highest in women with FV Leiden and pre-pregnancy BMI over 30 kg/m2 (75-fold), and in women with FV Leiden and age over 35 years (60-fold). When evaluating pre-eclampsia (248 cases, 679 controls), FV Leiden was associated with a trend of increased risk (OR 1.7, 95% CI 0.8-3.9), but the association was not statistically significant. When evaluating unexplained stillbirth (44 cases, 776 controls), FV Leiden was associated with over 3-fold risk (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.2-11.6). When evaluating preterm birth (324 cases, 752 controls), FV Leiden was associated with over 2-fold risk (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.6). FV Leiden was especially associated with late preterm birth (32-36 weeks of gestation), but not with early preterm birth (< 32 weeks of gestation). The results of this large population-based study can be generalized to Finnish women with pregnancies continuing beyond first trimester, and may be applied to Caucasian women in populations with similar prevalence of FV Leiden and high standard prenatal care.

Toxicant distributions and impact models in environmental risk analysis of waste sites

Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä.

High-risk patients and high-risk grafts in infrainguinal bypass for critical limb ischaemia

The main purpose of revascularization procedures for critical limb ischaemia (CLI) is to preserve the leg and sustain the patient s ambulatory status. Other goals are ischaemic pain relief and healing of ischaemic ulcers. Patients with CLI are usually old and have several comorbidities affecting the outcome. Revascularization for CLI is meaningless unless both life and limb are preserved. Therefore, the knowledge of both patient- and bypass-related risk factors is of paramount importance in clinical decision-making, patient selection and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to identify patient- and graft-related predictors of impaired outcome after infrainguinal bypass for CLI. The purpose was to assess the outcome of high-risk patients undergoing infrainguinal bypass and to evaluate the usefulness of specific risk scoring methods. The results of bypasses in the absence of optimal vein graft material were also evaluated, and the feasibility of the new method of scaffolding suboptimal vein grafts was assessed. The results of this study showed that renal insufficiency - not only renal failure but also moderate impairment in renal function - seems to be a significant risk factor for both limb loss and death after infrainguinal bypass in patients with CLI. Low estimated GFR (PIENEMPI KUIN 30 ml/min/1.73 m2) is a strong independent marker of poor prognosis. Furthermore, estimated GFR is a more accurate predictor of survival and leg salvage after infrainguinal bypass in CLI patients than serum creatinine level alone. We also found out that the life expectancy of octogenarians with CLI is short. In this patient group endovascular revascularization is associated with a better outcome than bypass in terms of survival, leg salvage and amputation-free survival especially in presence of coronary artery disease. This study was the first one to demonstrate that Finnvasc and modified Prevent III risk scoring methods both predict the long-term outcome of patients undergoing both surgical and endovascular infrainguinal revascularization for CLI. Both risk scoring methods are easy to use and might be helpful in clinical practice as an aid in preoperative patient selection and decision-making. Similarly than in previous studies, we found out that a single-segment great saphenous vein graft is superior to any other autologous vein graft in terms of mid-term patency and leg salvage. However, if optimal vein graft is lacking, arm vein conduits are superior to prosthetic grafts especially in infrapopliteal bypasses for CLI. We studied also the new method of scaffolding suboptimal quality vein grafts and found out that this method may enable the use of vein grafts of compromised quality otherwise unsuitable for bypass grafting. The remarkable finding was that patients with the combination of high operative risk due to severe comorbidities and risk graft have extremely poor survival, suggesting that only relatively fit patients should undergo complex bypasses with risk grafts. The results of this study can be used in clinical practice as an aid in preoperative patient selection and decision-making. In the future, the need of vascular surgery will increase significantly as the elderly and diabetic population increases, which emphasises the importance of focusing on those patients that will gain benefit from infrainguinal bypass. Therefore, the individual risk of the patient, ambulatory status, outcome expectations, the risk of bypass procedure as well as technical factors such as the suitability of outflow anatomy and the available vein material should all be assessed and taken into consideration when deciding on the best revascularization strategy.

Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.