A Method for Estimating Short-term Profitability, Case Stora Enso Packaging Boards

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa case yritykselle malli lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimointia varten. Tutkimusmetodi on konstruktiivinen, ja malli kehitettiin laskentaihmisten avustuksella. Teoriaosassa käytiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla läpi kannattavuutta, budjetointia sekä itse ennustamista. Teoriaosassa pyrittiin löytämään sellaisia menetelmiä, joita voitaisiin käyttää lyhyen aikavälin kannattavuuden estimoinnissa. Rakennettavalle mallille asetettujen vaatimusten mukaan menetelmäksi valittiin harkintaan perustuva menetelmä (judgmental). Tutkimuksen mukaan kannattavuuteen vaikuttaa myyntihinta ja –määrä, tuotanto, raaka-aineiden hinnat ja varaston muutos. Rakennettu malli toimii kohdeyrityksessä kohtalaisen hyvin ja huomattavaa on se, että eri tehtaiden ja eri koneiden väliset erot saattavat olla kohtuullisen suuret. Nämä erot johtuvat pääasiassa tehtaan koosta ja mallien erilaisuudesta. Mallin käytännön toimivuus tulee kuitenkin parhaiten selville silloin, kun se on laskentaihmisten käytössä. Ennustamiseen liittyy kuitenkin aina omat ongelmansa ja uudetkaan menetelmät eivät välttämättä poista näitä ongelmia.

Evaluation and realisation of a market entry method: The entry of a small high technology company into the British construction software markets

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia, mikä olisi parhaiten case-yritykselle sopiva menetelmä tulla tekemään kauppaa ulkomaan markkinoille. Kaikki yleiset kansainvälisille markkinoilletulomenetelmät esitetään ja niiden edut ja haitat tuodaan esille. Selvittäessä tehtävänantajayrityksen resurssit, odotukset ja vaatimukset todetaan, että yhteistyössä tehtävä markkinoilletulo on pätevin vaihtoehto. Tämän jälkeen valitaan parhaiten tarkoitukseen sopiva yritys ennalta valitusta yritysvaihtoehtojen ryhmästä ja testataan tämän yrityksen yhteistyösopivuus case-yrityksen kanssa. Yritysten välinen yhteistyösopivuus arvioidaan analysoimalla yritykset haastattelujen avulla ja tutkielmassa esitettyjen teorioiden avulla. Sopivuus todetaan hyväksi, kattaen 71 prosenttia analysoiduista kohdista. Kaksikymmentäyhdeksän prosenttia kohdista todetaan kohdiksi, joissa yritysten välinen yhteisymmärrys ei ole toimeksiantajayrityksen minimivaatimukset täyttävää. Näitä kohtia tullaan käyttämään suunnittelun pohjana kun suunnitellaan jatkoneuvotteluja yhteistyön käynnistämiseksi.

Decreasing Proportion of Recent Infections among Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Cases in Switzerland, 2008 to 2013 Based on Line-Immunoassay-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: HIV surveillance requires monitoring of new HIV diagnoses and differentiation of incident and older infections. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a system for monitoring incident HIV infections based on the results of a line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) mandatorily conducted for HIV confirmation and type differentiation (HIV-1, HIV-2) of all newly diagnosed patients. Based on this system, we assessed the proportion of incident HIV infection among newly diagnosed cases in Switzerland during 2008-2013. METHODS AND RESULTS: Inno-Lia antibody reaction patterns recorded in anonymous HIV notifications to the federal health authority were classified by 10 published algorithms into incident (up to 12 months) or older infections. Utilizing these data, annual incident infection estimates were obtained in two ways, (i) based on the diagnostic performance of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident', (ii) based on the window-periods of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration'. From 2008-2013, 3'851 HIV notifications were received. Adult HIV-1 infections amounted to 3'809 cases, and 3'636 of them (95.5%) contained Inno-Lia data. Incident infection totals calculated were similar for the performance- and window-based methods, amounting on average to 1'755 (95% confidence interval, 1588-1923) and 1'790 cases (95% CI, 1679-1900), respectively. More than half of these were among men who had sex with men. Both methods showed a continuous decline of annual incident infections 2008-2013, totaling -59.5% and -50.2%, respectively. The decline of incident infections continued even in 2012, when a 15% increase in HIV notifications had been observed. This increase was entirely due to older infections. Overall declines 2008-2013 were of similar extent among the major transmission groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inno-Lia based incident HIV-1 infection surveillance proved useful and reliable. It represents a free, additional public health benefit of the use of this relatively costly test for HIV confirmation and type differentiation.

New method for measuring longitudinal fuctuations and directed flow in ultrarelativistic heavy ion reactions

It has been shown in recent ALICE@LHC measurements that the odd flow harmonics, in particular, a directed flow v1, occurred to be weak and dominated by random fluctuations. In this work we propose a new method, which makes the measurements more sensitive to the flow patterns showing global collective symmetries. We demonstrate how the longitudinal center of mass rapidity fluctuations can be identified, and then the collective flow analysis can be performed in the event-by-event center of mass frame. Such a method can be very effective in separating the flow patterns originating from random fluctuations, and the flow patterns originating from the global symmetry of the initial state.

Alteration and recovery of arm usage in daily activities after rotator cuff surgery.

BACKGROUND: The objective measurement of dominant/nondominant arm use proportion in daily life may provide relevant information on healthy and pathologic arm behavior. This prospective case-control study explored the potential of such measurements as indicators of upper limb functional recovery after rotator cuff surgery. METHODS: Data on dominant/nondominant arm usage were acquired with body-worn sensors for 7 hours. The postsurgical arm usage of 21 patients was collected at 3, 6, and 12 months after rotator cuff surgery in the sitting, walking, and standing postures and compared with a reference established with 41 healthy subjects. The results were calculated for the dominant and nondominant surgical side subgroups at all stages. The correlations with clinical scores were calculated. RESULTS: Healthy right-handed and left-handed dominant arm usage was 60.2% (±6.3%) and 53.4% (±6.6%), respectively. Differences in use of the dominant side were significant between the right- and left-handed subgroups for sitting (P = .014) and standing (P = .009) but not for walking (P = .328). The patient group showed a significant underuse of 10.7% (±8.9%) at 3 months after surgery (P < .001). The patients recovered normal arm usage within 12 months, regardless of surgical side. The arm underuse measurement was weakly related to function and pain scores. CONCLUSION: This study provided new information on arm recovery after rotator cuff surgery using an innovative measurement method. It highlighted that objective arm underuse measurement is a valuable indicator of upper limb postsurgical outcome that captures a complementary feature to clinical scores.

CNDOL: A fast and reliable method for the calculation of electronic properties of very large systems. Applications to retinal binding pocket in rhodopsin and gas phase porphine.

Very large molecular systems can be calculated with the so called CNDOL approximate Hamiltonians that have been developed by avoiding oversimplifications and only using a priori parameters and formulas from the simpler NDO methods. A new diagonal monoelectronic term named CNDOL/21 shows great consistency and easier SCF convergence when used together with an appropriate function for charge repulsion energies that is derived from traditional formulas. It is possible to obtain a priori molecular orbitals and electron excitation properties after the configuration interaction of single excited determinants with reliability, maintaining interpretative possibilities even being a simplified Hamiltonian. Tests with some unequivocal gas phase maxima of simple molecules (benzene, furfural, acetaldehyde, hexyl alcohol, methyl amine, 2,5 dimethyl 2,4 hexadiene, and ethyl sulfide) ratify the general quality of this approach in comparison with other methods. The calculation of large systems as porphine in gas phase and a model of the complete retinal binding pocket in rhodopsin with 622 basis functions on 280 atoms at the quantum mechanical level show reliability leading to a resulting first allowed transition in 483 nm, very similar to the known experimental value of 500 nm of "dark state." In this very important case, our model gives a central role in this excitation to a charge transfer from the neighboring Glu(-) counterion to the retinaldehyde polyene chain. Tests with gas phase maxima of some important molecules corroborate the reliability of CNDOL/2 Hamiltonians.

Does phylogeographic structure relate to climatic niche divergence? A test using maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.)

Aim To disentangle the effects of environmental and geographical processes driving phylogenetic distances among clades of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster). To assess the implications for conservation management of combining molecular information with species distribution models (SDMs; which predict species distribution based on known occurrence records and on environmental variables). Location Western Mediterranean Basin and European Atlantic coast. Methods We undertook two cluster analyses for eight genetically defined pine clades based on climatic niche and genetic similarities. We assessed niche similarity by means of a principal component analysis and Schoener's D metric. To calculate genetic similarity, we used the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean based on Nei's distance using 266 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We then assessed the contribution of environmental and geographical distances to phylogenetic distance by means of Mantel regression with variance partitioning. Finally, we compared the projection obtained from SDMs fitted from the species level (SDMsp) and composed from the eight clade-level models (SDMcm). Results Genetically and environmentally defined clusters were identical. Environmental and geographical distances explained 12.6% of the phylogenetic distance variation and, overall, geographical and environmental overlap among clades was low. Large differences were detected between SDMsp and SDMcm (57.75% of disagreement in the areas predicted as suitable). Main conclusions The genetic structure within the maritime pine subspecies complex is primarily a consequence of its demographic history, as seen by the high proportion of unexplained variation in phylogenetic distances. Nevertheless, our results highlight the contribution of local environmental adaptation in shaping the lower-order, phylogeographical distribution patterns and spatial genetic structure of maritime pine: (1) genetically and environmentally defined clusters are consistent, and (2) environment, rather than geography, explained a higher proportion of variation in phylogenetic distance. SDMs, key tools in conservation management, better characterize the fundamental niche of the species when they include molecular information.

Responding to Young People's Health Risks in Primary Care: A Cluster Randomised Trial of Training Clinicians in Screening and Motivational Interviewing.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention implementing best practice guidelines recommending clinicians screen and counsel young people across multiple psychosocial risk factors, on clinicians' detection of health risks and patients' risk taking behaviour, compared to a didactic seminar on young people's health. DESIGN: Pragmatic cluster randomised trial where volunteer general practices were stratified by postcode advantage or disadvantage score and billing type (private, free national health, community health centre), then randomised into either intervention or comparison arms using a computer generated random sequence. Three months post-intervention, patients were recruited from all practices post-consultation for a Computer Assisted Telephone Interview and followed up three and 12 months later. Researchers recruiting, consenting and interviewing patients and patients themselves were masked to allocation status; clinicians were not. SETTING: General practices in metropolitan and rural Victoria, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: General practices with at least one interested clinician (general practitioner or nurse) and their 14-24 year old patients. INTERVENTION: This complex intervention was designed using evidence based practice in learning and change in clinician behaviour and general practice systems, and included best practice approaches to motivating change in adolescent risk taking behaviours. The intervention involved training clinicians (nine hours) in health risk screening, use of a screening tool and motivational interviewing; training all practice staff (receptionists and clinicians) in engaging youth; provision of feedback to clinicians of patients' risk data; and two practice visits to support new screening and referral resources. Comparison clinicians received one didactic educational seminar (three hours) on engaging youth and health risk screening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were patient report of (1) clinician detection of at least one of six health risk behaviours (tobacco, alcohol and illicit drug use, risks for sexually transmitted infection, STI, unplanned pregnancy, and road risks); and (2) change in one or more of the six health risk behaviours, at three months or at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were likelihood of future visits, trust in the clinician after exit interview, clinician detection of emotional distress and fear and abuse in relationships, and emotional distress at three and 12 months. Patient acceptability of the screening tool was also described for the intervention arm. Analyses were adjusted for practice location and billing type, patients' sex, age, and recruitment method, and past health risks, where appropriate. An intention to treat analysis approach was used, which included multilevel multiple imputation for missing outcome data. RESULTS: 42 practices were randomly allocated to intervention or comparison arms. Two intervention practices withdrew post allocation, prior to training, leaving 19 intervention (53 clinicians, 377 patients) and 21 comparison (79 clinicians, 524 patients) practices. 69% of patients in both intervention (260) and comparison (360) arms completed the 12 month follow-up. Intervention clinicians discussed more health risks per patient (59.7%) than comparison clinicians (52.7%) and thus were more likely to detect a higher proportion of young people with at least one of the six health risk behaviours (38.4% vs 26.7%, risk difference [RD] 11.6%, Confidence Interval [CI] 2.93% to 20.3%; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.7, CI 1.1 to 2.5). Patients reported less illicit drug use (RD -6.0, CI -11 to -1.2; OR 0·52, CI 0·28 to 0·96), and less risk for STI (RD -5.4, CI -11 to 0.2; OR 0·66, CI 0·46 to 0·96) at three months in the intervention relative to the comparison arm, and for unplanned pregnancy at 12 months (RD -4.4; CI -8.7 to -0.1; OR 0·40, CI 0·20 to 0·80). No differences were detected between arms on other health risks. There were no differences on secondary outcomes, apart from a greater detection of abuse (OR 13.8, CI 1.71 to 111). There were no reports of harmful events and intervention arm youth had high acceptance of the screening tool. CONCLUSIONS: A complex intervention, compared to a simple educational seminar for practices, improved detection of health risk behaviours in young people. Impact on health outcomes was inconclusive. Technology enabling more efficient, systematic health-risk screening may allow providers to target counselling toward higher risk individuals. Further trials require more power to confirm health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN.com ISRCTN16059206.

High c-Met expression in stage I-II pancreatic adenocarcinoma: proposal for an immunostaining scoring method and correlation with poor prognosis.

AIMS: c-Met is an emerging biomarker in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC); there is no consensus regarding the immunostaining scoring method for this marker. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of c-Met overexpression in resected PDAC, and to elaborate a robust and reproducible scoring method for c-Met immunostaining in this setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: c-Met immunostaining was graded according to the validated MetMab score, a classic visual scale combining surface and intensity (SI score), or a simplified score (high c-Met: ≥20% of tumour cells with strong membranous staining), in stage I-II PDAC. A computer-assisted classification method (Aperio software) was developed. Clinicopathological parameters were correlated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival(OS). One hundred and forty-nine patients were analysed retrospectively in a two-step process. Thirty-seven samples (whole slides) were analysed as a pre-run test. Reproducibility values were optimal with the simplified score (kappa = 0.773); high c-Met expression (7/37) was associated with shorter DFS [hazard ratio (HR) 3.456, P = 0.0036] and OS (HR 4.257, P = 0.0004). c-Met expression was concordant on whole slides and tissue microarrays in 87.9% of samples, and quantifiable with a specific computer-assisted algorithm. In the whole cohort (n = 131), patients with c-Met(high) tumours (36/131) had significantly shorter DFS (9.3 versus 20.0 months, HR 2.165, P = 0.0005) and OS (18.2 versus 35.0 months, HR 1.832, P = 0.0098) in univariate and multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified c-Met expression is an independent prognostic marker in stage I-II PDAC that may help to identify patients with a high risk of tumour relapse and poor survival.

Measuring individuals' response quality in self-administered psychological tests : an introduction to Gendre's functional method

The functional method is a new test theory using a new scoring method that assumes complexity in test structure, and thus takes into account every correlation between factors and items. The main specificity of the functional method is to model test scores by multiple regression instead of estimating them by using simplistic sums of points. In order to proceed, the functional method requires the creation of hyperspherical measurement space, in which item responses are expressed by their correlation with orthogonal factors. This method has three main qualities. First, measures are expressed in the absolute metric of correlations; therefore, items, scales and persons are expressed in the same measurement space using the same single metric. Second, factors are systematically orthogonal and without errors, which is optimal in order to predict other outcomes. Such predictions can be performed to estimate how one would answer to other tests, or even to model one's response strategy if it was perfectly coherent. Third, the functional method provides measures of individuals' response validity (i.e., control indices). Herein, we propose a standard procedure in order to identify whether test results are interpretable and to exclude invalid results caused by various response biases based on control indices.

Erratum of initial paper: Postmortem computed tomography angiography vs. conventional autopsy: advantages and inconveniences of each method.

PURPOSE: Postmortem computed tomography angiography (PMCTA) was introduced into forensic investigations a few years ago. It provides reliable images that can be consulted at any time. Conventional autopsy remains the reference standard for defining the cause of death, but provides only limited possibility of a second examination. This study compares these two procedures and discusses findings that can be detected exclusively using each method. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study compared radiological reports from PMCTA to reports from conventional autopsy for 50 forensic autopsy cases. Reported findings from autopsy and PMCTA were extracted and compared to each other. PMCTA was performed using a modified heart-lung machine and the oily contrast agent Angiofil® (Fumedica AG, Muri, Switzerland). RESULTS: PMCTA and conventional autopsy would have drawn similar conclusions regarding causes of death. Nearly 60 % of all findings were visualized with both techniques. PMCTA demonstrates a higher sensitivity for identifying skeletal and vascular lesions. However, vascular occlusions due to postmortem blood clots could be falsely assumed to be vascular lesions. In contrast, conventional autopsy does not detect all bone fractures or the exact source of bleeding. Conventional autopsy provides important information about organ morphology and remains the only way to diagnose a vital vascular occlusion with certitude. CONCLUSION: Overall, PMCTA and conventional autopsy provide comparable findings. However, each technique presents advantages and disadvantages for detecting specific findings. To correctly interpret findings and clearly define the indications for PMCTA, these differences must be understood.

Method development for the simultaneous determination of methylmercury and inorganic mercury in seafood

This paper reports the method development for the simultaneous determination of methylmercury MeHgþ) and inorganic mercury (iHg) species in seafood samples. The study focused on the extraction and quantification of MeHgþ (the most toxic species) by liquid chromatography coupled to on-line UV irradiation and cold vapour atomic fluorescence spectroscopy (LC-UV-CV-AFS), using HCl 4 mol/L as the extractant agent. Accuracy of the method has been verified by analysing three certified reference materials and different spiked samples. The values found for total Hg and MeHgþ for the CRMs did not differ significantly from certified values at a 95% confidence level, and recoveries between 85% and 97% for MeHgþ, based on spikes, were achieved. The detection limits (LODs) obtained were 0.001 mg Hg/kg for total mercury, 0.0003 mg Hg/kg for MeHgþ and 0.0004 mg Hg/kg for iHg. The quantification limits (LOQs) established were 0.003 mg Hg/kg for total mercury, 0.0010 mg Hg/kg for MeHgþ and 0.0012 mg Hg/kg for iHg. Precision for each mercury species was established, being 12% in terms of RSD in all cases. Finally, the developed method was applied to 24 seafood samples from different origins and total mercury contents. The concentrations for Total Hg, MeHg and iHg ranged from 0.07 to 2.33, 0.003-2.23 and 0.006-0.085 mg Hg/kg, respectively. The established analytical method allows to obtain results for mercury speciation in less than 1 one hour including both, sample pretreatment and measuring step.