985 resultados para POPULATION COMPOSITION
Resumo:
Frailty prevalence in older adults has been reported but is largely unknown in middle-aged adults. We determined the prevalence of frailty indicators among middle-aged and older adults from a general Swiss population characterized by universal health insurance coverage and assessed the determinants of frailty with a special focus on socioeconomic status. Participants aged 50 and more from the population-based 2006-2010 Bus Santé study were included (N = 2,930). Four frailty indicators (weakness, shrinking, exhaustion, and low activity) were measured according to standard definitions. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine associations. Overall, 63.5%, 28.7%, and 7.8% participants presented no frailty indicators, one frailty indicator, and two or more frailty indicators, respectively. Among middle-aged participants (50-65 years), 75.1%, 22.2%, and 2.7% presented 0, 1, and 2 or more frailty indicators. The number of frailty indicators was positively associated with age, hypertension, and current smoking and negatively associated with male gender, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and serum total cholesterol level. Lower income level but not education was associated with higher number of frailty indicators. Frailty indicators are frequently encountered in both older and middle-aged adults from the Swiss general population. Despite universal health insurance coverage, household income is independently associated with frailty.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Recommended oral voriconazole (VRC) doses are lower than intravenous doses. Because plasma concentrations impact efficacy and safety of therapy, optimizing individual drug exposure may improve these outcomes. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic analysis (NONMEM) was performed on 505 plasma concentration measurements involving 55 patients with invasive mycoses who received recommended VRC doses. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination best fitted the data. VRC clearance was 5.2 L/h, the volume of distribution was 92 L, the absorption rate constant was 1.1 hour(-1), and oral bioavailability was 0.63. Severe cholestasis decreased VRC elimination by 52%. A large interpatient variability was observed on clearance (coefficient of variation [CV], 40%) and bioavailability (CV 84%), and an interoccasion variability was observed on bioavailability (CV, 93%). Lack of response to therapy occurred in 12 of 55 patients (22%), and grade 3 neurotoxicity occurred in 5 of 55 patients (9%). A logistic multivariate regression analysis revealed an independent association between VRC trough concentrations and probability of response or neurotoxicity by identifying a therapeutic range of 1.5 mg/L (>85% probability of response) to 4.5 mg/L (<15% probability of neurotoxicity). Population-based simulations with the recommended 200 mg oral or 300 mg intravenous twice-daily regimens predicted probabilities of 49% and 87%, respectively, for achievement of 1.5 mg/L and of 8% and 37%, respectively, for achievement of 4.5 mg/L. With 300-400 mg twice-daily oral doses and 200-300 mg twice-daily intravenous doses, the predicted probabilities of achieving the lower target concentration were 68%-78% for the oral regimen and 70%-87% for the intravenous regimen, and the predicted probabilities of achieving the upper target concentration were 19%-29% for the oral regimen and 18%-37% for the intravenous regimen. CONCLUSIONS: Higher oral than intravenous VRC doses, followed by individualized adjustments based on measured plasma concentrations, improve achievement of the therapeutic target that maximizes the probability of therapeutic response and minimizes the probability of neurotoxicity. These findings challenge dose recommendations for VRC.
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This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.
Resumo:
This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.
Resumo:
This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.
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Untill recently, congenital heart disease was considered as a childhood's disease. With improvement in pediatric survival, adults with a congenital heart disease (ACHD) represent an emerging group of patients who need specialized medical care. In 2010, the ESC published newguidelines on global and specific management of adults with congenital heart disease. ACHD centers organize appropriate medical care for these patients, promote specialist training and national scientific research in collaboration with other national ACHD centers.
Resumo:
Background: Low to moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, an effect mainly mediated by an increase in HDL-cholesterol levels. However, data on the CHD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. Methods: In a population-based study of 5,769 men and women, aged 35-75 years, without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, last week alcohol consumption was categorized into 0, 1-6, 7-13, 14-20, 21-27, 28-34, 035 drinks/week and into nondrinkers (0 drink/week), moderate (1-13), high (14-34) and very high drinkers (035). Blood pressure, lipids and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were measured, and the 10-year CHD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Results: 73% (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were considered as high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) as very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (from 1.57 ± 0.01 [adjusted mean ± SE] in nondrinkers to 1.88 ± 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 ± 1.01 to 1.32 ± 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure rose significantly (127.4 ± 0.4 to 132.2 ± 1.4 and 78.7 ± 0.3 to 81.7 ± 0.9 mm Hg, respectively, all p for trend <0.001). Predicted 10-year CHD risk increased from 4.31 ± 0.10 to 4.90 ± 0.37 (p = 0.03) with increasing alcohol use, with a J-shaped relationship. Conclusion: As measured by the 10-year CHD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, namely because the beneficial increase in HDL-cholesterol may be blunt by a rise in blood pressure levels.
Resumo:
Background: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index (BMI) than non-smokers, smoking may affect body fat (BF) distribution. Some studies have assessed the association between smoking, BMI and waist circumference (WC), but, to our knowledge, no population-based studies assessed the relation between smoking and BF composition. We assessed the association between amount of cigarette smoking, BMI, WC and BF composition. Method: Data was analysed from a cross-sectional population-based study including 6'187 Caucasians aged 32-76 and living in Switzerland. Height, weight and WC were measured. BF, expressed in percent of total body weight, was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Abdominal obesity was defined as a WC 0102 cm for men and 088 cm for women and normal WC as <94 cm for men and <80 cm for women. In men, excess BF was defined as %BF 028.1, 28.7, 30.6 and 32.6 for age groups 32-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-76, respectively; the corresponding values for women were 35.9, 36.5, 40.5 and 44.4. Cigarette smoking was assessed using a self-reported questionnaire. Results: 29.3% of men and 25.0% of women were smokers. Prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, and excess of BF was 16.9% and 26.6% and 14.2% in men and 15.0%, 33.0% and 27.5% in women, respectively. Smokers had lower age-adjusted mean WC and percent of BF compared to non-smokers. However, among smokers, mean age-adjusted WC and BF increased with the number of cigarettes smoked per day: among light (1-10 cig/day), moderate (11-20) and heavy smokers (>20), mean ± SE %BF was 22.4 ± 0.3, 23.1 ± 0.3 and 23.5 ± 0.4 for men, and 31.9 ± 0.3, 32.6 ± 0.3 and 32.9 ± 0.4 for women, respectively. Mean WC was 92.9 ± 0.6, 94.0 ± 0.5 and 96.0 ± 0.6 cm for men, and 80.2 ± 0.5, 81.3 ± 0.5 and 83.3 ± 0.7 for women, respectively. Compared with light smokers, the age-adjusted odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval) for excess of BF was 1.04 (0.58 to 1.85) for moderate smokers and 1.06 (0.57 to 1.99) for heavy smokers in men (p-trend = 0.9), and 1.35 (0.92 to 1.99) and 2.26 (1.38 to 3.72), respectively, in women (p-trend = 0.04). Odds ratio for abdominal obesity vs. normal WC was 1.32 (0.81 to 2.15) for moderate smokers and 1.95 (1.16 to 3.27) for heavy smokers in men (p-trend <0.01), and 1.15 (0.79 to 1.69) and 2.36 (1.41 to 3.93) in women (p-trend = 0.03). Conclusion: WC and BF were positively and dose-dependently associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day in women, whereas only WC was dose dependently and significantly associated with the amount of cigarettes smoked per day in men. This suggests that heavy smokers, especially women, are more likely to have an excess of BF and to accumulate BF in the abdomen compared to lighter smokers.
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In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.
Resumo:
There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029
