Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

Establishment of models to study mouse and human retinogenesis "in vitro" : isolation and characterization of retinal stem cells

SUMMARY IN FRENCH Les cellules souches sont des cellules indifférenciées capables a) de proliférer, b) de s'auto¬renouveller, c) de produire des cellules différenciées, postmitotiques et fonctionnelles (multipotencialité), et d) de régénérer le tissu après des lésions. Par exemple, les cellules de souches hematopoiétiques, situées dans la moelle osseuse, peuvent s'amplifier, se diviser et produire diverses cellules différenciées au cours de la vie, les cellules souches restant dans la moelle osseuse et consentant leur propriété. Les cellules souches intestinales, situées dans la crypte des microvillosités peuvent également régénérer tout l'intestin au cours de la vie. La rétine se compose de six classes de neurones et d'un type de cellule gliale. Tous ces types de cellules sont produits par un progéniteur rétinien. Le pic de production des photorécepteurs se situe autour des premiers jours postnatals chez la souris. A cette période la rétine contient les cellules hautement prolifératives. Dans cette étude, nous avons voulu analyser le phénotype de ces cellules et leur potentiel en tant que cellules souches ou progénitrices. Nous nous sommes également concentrés sur l'effet de certains facteurs épigéniques sur leur destin cellulaire. Nous avons observé que toutes les cellules prolifératives isolées à partir de neurorétines postnatales de souris expriment le marqueur de glie radiaire RC2, ainsi que des facteurs de transcription habituellement trouvés dans la glie radiaire (Mash1, Pax6), et répondent aux critères des cellules souches : une capacité élevée d'expansion, un état indifférencié, la multipotencialité (démontrée par analyse clonale). Nous avons étudié la différentiation des cellules dans différents milieux de culture. En l'absence de sérum, l'EGF induit l'expression de la β-tubulin-III, un marqueur neuronal, et l'acquisition d'une morphologie neuronale, ceci dans 15% des cellules présentes. Nous avons également analysé la prolifération de cellules. Seulement 20% des cellules incorporent le bromodéoxyuridine (BrdU) qui est un marqueur de division cellulaire. Ceci démontre que l'EGF induit la formation des neurones sans une progression massive du cycle cellulaire. Par ailleurs, une stimulation de 2h d'EGF est suffisante pour induire la différentiation neuronale. Certains des neurones formés sont des cellules ganglionnaires rétiniennes (GR), comme l'indique l'expression de marqueurs de cellules ganglionnaires (Ath5, Brn3b et mélanopsine), et dans de rare cas d'autres neurones rétiniens ont été observés (photorécepteurs (PR) et cellules bipolaires). Nous avons confirmé que les cellules souches rétiniennes tardives n'étaient pas restreintes au cours du temps et qu'elles conservent leur multipotencialité en étant capables de générer des neurones dits précoces (GR) ou tardifs (PR). Nos résultats prouvent que l'EGF est non seulement un facteur contrôlant le développement glial, comme précédemment démontré, mais également un facteur efficace de différentiation pour les neurones rétiniens, du moins in vitro. D'autre part, nous avons voulu établir si l'oeil adulte humain contient des cellules souches rétiniennes (CSRs). L'oeil de certains poissons ou amphibiens continue de croître pendant l'âge adulte du fait de l'activité persistante des cellules souches rétiniennes. Chez les poissons, le CSRs se situe dans la marge ciliaire (CM) à la périphérie de la rétine. Bien que l'oeil des mammifères ne se développe plus pendant la vie d'adulte, plusieurs groupes ont prouvé que l'oeil de mammifères adultes contient des cellules souches rétiniennes également dans la marge ciliaire plus précisément dans l'épithélium pigmenté et non dans la neurorétine. Ces CSRs répondent à certains critères des cellules souches. Nous avons identifié et caractérisé les cellules souches rétiniennes résidant dans l'oeil adulte humain. Nous avons prouvé qu'elles partagent les mêmes propriétés que leurs homologues chez les rongeurs c.-à-d. auto-renouvellement, amplification, et différenciation en neurones rétiniens in vitro et in vivo (démontré par immunocoloration et microarray). D'autre part, ces cellules peuvent être considérablement amplifiées, tout en conservant leur potentiel de cellules souches, comme indiqué par l'analyse de leur profil d'expression génique (microarray). Elles expriment également des gènes communs à diverses cellules souches: nucleostemin, nestin, Brni1, Notch2, ABCG2, c-kit et son ligand, aussi bien que cyclin D3 qui agit en aval de c-kit. Nous avons pu montré que Bmi1et Oct4 sont nécessaires pour la prolifération des CSRs confortant leur propriété de cellules souches. Nos données indiquent que la neurorétine postnatale chez la souris et l'épithélium pigmenté de la marge ciliaire chez l'humain adulte contiennent les cellules souches rétiniennes. En outre, nous avons développé un système qui permet d'amplifier et de cultiver facilement les CSRs. Ce modèle permet de disséquer les mécanismes impliqués lors de la retinogenèse. Par exemple, ce système peut être employé pour l'étude des substances ou des facteurs impliqués, par exemple, dans la survie ou dans la génération des cellules rétiniennes. Il peut également aider à disséquer la fonction de gènes ou les facteurs impliqués dans la restriction ou la spécification du destin cellulaire. En outre, dans les pays occidentaux, la rétinite pigmentaire (RP) touche 1 individu sur 3500 et la dégénérescence maculaire liée à l'âge (DMLA) affecte 1 % à 3% de la population âgée de plus de 60 ans. La génération in vitro de cellules rétiniennes est aussi un outil prometteur pour fournir une source illimitée de cellules pour l'étude de transplantation cellulaire pour la rétine. SUMMARY IN ENGLISH Stem cells are defined as undifferentiated cells capable of a) proliferation, b) self maintenance (self-renewability), c) production of many differentiated functional postmitotic cells (multipotency), and d) regenerating tissue after injury. For instance, hematopoietic stem cells, located in bone marrow, can expand, divide and generate differentiated cells into the diverse lineages throughout life, the stem cells conserving their status. In the villi crypt, the intestinal stem cells are also able to regenerate the intestine during their life time. The retina is composed of six classes of neurons and one glial cell. All these cell types are produced by the retinal progenitor cell. The peak of photoreceptor production is reached around the first postnatal days in rodents. Thus, at this stage the retina contains highly proliferative cells. In our research, we analyzed the phenotype of these cells and their potential as possible progenitor or stem cells. We also focused on the effect of epigenic factor(s) and cell fate determination. All the proliferating cells isolated from mice postnatal neuroretina harbored the radial glia marker RC2, expressed transcription factors usually found in radial glia (Mash 1, Pax6), and met the criteria of stem cells: high capacity of expansion, maintenance of an undifferentiated state, and multipotency demonstrated by clonal analysis. We analyzed the differentiation seven days after the transfer of the cells in different culture media. In the absence of serum, EGF led to the expression of the neuronal marker β-tubulin-III, and the acquisition of neuronal morphology in 15% of the cells. Analysis of cell proliferation by bromodeoxyuridine incorporation revealed that EGF mainly induced the formation of neurons without stimulating massively cell cycle progression. Moreover, a pulse of 2h EGF stimulation was sufficient to induce neuronal differentiation. Some neurons were committed to the retinal ganglion cell (RGC) phenotype, as revealed by the expression of retinal ganglion markers (Ath5, Brn3b and melanopsin), and in few cases to other retinal phenotypes (photoreceptors (PRs) and bipolar cells). We confirmed that the late RSCs were not restricted over-time and conserved multipotentcy characteristics by generating retinal phenotypes that usually appear at early (RGC) or late (PRs) developmental stages. Our results show that EGF is not only a factor controlling glial development, as previously shown, but also a potent differentiation factor for retinal neurons, at least in vitro. On the other hand, we wanted to find out if the adult human eye contains retina stem cells. The eye of some fishes and amphibians continues to grow during adulthood due to the persistent activity of retinal stem cells (RSCs). In fish, the RSCs are located in the ciliary margin zone (CMZ) at the periphery of the retina. Although, the adult mammalian eye does not grow during adult life, several groups have shown that the adult mouse eye contains retinal stem cells in the homologous zone (i.e. the ciliary margin), in the pigmented epithelium and not in the neuroretina. These RSCs meet some criteria of stem cells. We identified and characterized the human retinal stem cells. We showed that they posses the same features as their rodent counterpart i.e. they self-renew, expand and differentiate into retinal neurons in vitro and in vivo (indicated by immunostaining and microarray analysis). Moreover, they can be greatly expanded while conserving their sternness potential as revealed by the gene expression profile analysis (microarray approach). They also expressed genes common to various stem cells: nucleostemin, nestin, Bmil , Notch2, ABCG2, c-kit and its ligand, as well as cyclin D3 which acts downstream of c-kit. Furthermore, Bmil and Oct-4 were required for RSC proliferation reinforcing their stem cell identity. Our data indicate that the mice postnatal neuroretina and the adult pigmented epithelium of adult human ciliary margin contain retinal stem cells. We developed a system to easily expand and culture RSCs that can be used to investigate the retinogenesis. For example, it can help to screen drugs or factors involved, for instance, in the survival or generation of retinal cells. This could help to dissect genes or factors involved in the restriction or specification of retinal cell fate. In Western countries, retinitis pigmentosa (RP) affects 1 out of 3'500 individuals and age-related macula degeneration (AMD) strikes 1 % to 3% of the population over 60. In vitro generation of retinal cells is thus a promising tool to provide an unlimited cell source for cellular transplantation studies in the retina.

Impact of biological and environmental variabilities on biological monitoring: an approach using toxicokinetic models

Biological monitoring of occupational exposure is characterized by important variability, due both to variability in the environment and to biological differences between workers. A quantitative description and understanding of this variability is important for a dependable application of biological monitoring. This work describes this variability,using a toxicokinetic model, for a large range of chemicals for which reference biological reference values exist. A toxicokinetic compartmental model describing both the parent compound and its metabolites was used. For each chemical, compartments were given physiological meaning. Models were elaborated based on physiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data when available, and on half-lives and central compartment concentrations when not available. Fourteen chemicals were studied (arsenic, cadmium, carbon monoxide, chromium, cobalt, ethylbenzene, ethyleneglycol monomethylether, fluorides, lead, mercury, methyl isobutyl ketone, penthachlorophenol, phenol, and toluene), representing 20 biological indicators. Occupational exposures were simulated using Monte Carlo techniques with realistic distributions of both individual physiological parameters and exposure conditions. Resulting biological indicator levels were then analyzed to identify the contribution of environmental and biological variability to total variability. Comparison of predicted biological indicator levels with biological exposure limits showed a high correlation with the model for 19 out of 20 indicators. Variability associated with changes in exposure levels (GSD of 1.5 and 2.0) is shown to be mainly influenced by the kinetics of the biological indicator. Thus, with regard to variability, we can conclude that, for the 14 chemicals modeled, biological monitoring would be preferable to air monitoring. For short half-lives (less than 7 hr), this is very similar to the environmental variability. However, for longer half-lives, estimated variability decreased. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene for the following free supplemental resource: tables detailing the CBTK models for all 14 chemicals and the symbol nomenclature that was used.] [Authors]

Entropy Production In Thermodynamic Climate Models

We present a non-equilibrium theory in a system with heat and radiative fluxes. The obtained expression for the entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional climate model based on the first law of thermodynamics. In the model, the dissipative fluxes are assumed to be independent variables, following the criteria of the Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (BIT) that enlarges, in reference to the classical expression, the applicability of a macroscopic thermodynamic theory for systems far from equilibrium. We analyze the second differential of the classical and the generalized entropy as a criteria of stability of the steady states. Finally, the extreme state is obtained using variational techniques and observing that the system is close to the maximum dissipation rate

Periodic Solutions in Low-Dimensional Climatic Models

Classic climatic models use constitutive laws without any response time. A more realistic approach to the natural processes governing climate dynamics must introduce response time for heat and radiation fluxes. Extended irreversible thermodynamics (EIT) is a good thermodynamical framework for introducing nonclassical constitutive laws. In the present study EIT has been used to analyze a Budyko–Sellers one-dimensional energybalance model developed by G. R. North. The results present self-sustained periodic oscillations when the response time is greater than a critical value. The high-frequency (few kiloyears) damped and nondamped oscillations obtained can be related to abrupt climatic changes without any variation in the external forcing of the system

Effects of convection on the removal of the multiplicity of stable states in one-dimensional vertical models

Here I develop a model of a radiative-convective atmosphere with both radiative and convective schemes highly simplified. The atmospheric absorption of radiation at selective wavelengths makes use of constant mass absorption coefficients in finite width spectral bands. The convective regime is introduced by using a prescribed lapse rate in the troposphere. The main novelty of the radiative-convective model developed here is that it is solved without using any angular approximation for the radiation field. The solution obtained in the purely radiation mode (i. e. with convection ignored) leads to multiple equilibria of stable states, being very similar to some results recently found in simple models of planetary atmospheres. However, the introduction of convective processes removes the multiple equilibria of stable states. This shows the importance of taking convective processes into account even for qualitative analyses of planetary atmosphere

Second differential of the entropy as a criterion for the stability in low-dimensional climate models

The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Lipid metabolism in myelinating glial cells: lessons from human inherited disorders and mouse models.

The integrity of central and peripheral nervous system myelin is affected in numerous lipid metabolism disorders. This vulnerability was so far mostly attributed to the extraordinarily high level of lipid synthesis that is required for the formation of myelin, and to the relative autonomy in lipid synthesis of myelinating glial cells because of blood barriers shielding the nervous system from circulating lipids. Recent insights from analysis of inherited lipid disorders, especially those with prevailing lipid depletion and from mouse models with glia-specific disruption of lipid metabolism, shed new light on this issue. The particular lipid composition of myelin, the transport of lipid-associated myelin proteins, and the necessity for timely assembly of the myelin sheath all contribute to the observed vulnerability of myelin to perturbed lipid metabolism. Furthermore, the uptake of external lipids may also play a role in the formation of myelin membranes. In addition to an improved understanding of basic myelin biology, these data provide a foundation for future therapeutic interventions aiming at preserving glial cell integrity in metabolic disorders.

Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

The effects of physiologically plausible connectivity structure on local and global dynamics in large scale brain models.

Functionally relevant large scale brain dynamics operates within the framework imposed by anatomical connectivity and time delays due to finite transmission speeds. To gain insight on the reliability and comparability of large scale brain network simulations, we investigate the effects of variations in the anatomical connectivity. Two different sets of detailed global connectivity structures are explored, the first extracted from the CoCoMac database and rescaled to the spatial extent of the human brain, the second derived from white-matter tractography applied to diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI) for a human subject. We use the combination of graph theoretical measures of the connection matrices and numerical simulations to explicate the importance of both connectivity strength and delays in shaping dynamic behaviour. Our results demonstrate that the brain dynamics derived from the CoCoMac database are more complex and biologically more realistic than the one based on the DSI database. We propose that the reason for this difference is the absence of directed weights in the DSI connectivity matrix.