Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

Spatial variability of air dry bulb temperature and black globe humidity index in a broiler house during the heating phase

The air dry-bulb temperature (t db),as well as the black globe humidity index (BGHI), exert great influence on the development of broiler chickens during their heating phase. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the structure and the magnitude of the t db and BGHI spatial variability, using geostatistics tools such as semivariogram analysis and also producing kriging maps. The experiment was conducted in the west mesoregion of the states of Minas Gerais in 2010, in a commercial broiler house with heating system consisting of two furnaces that heat the air indirectly, in the firsts 14 days of the birds' life. The data were registered at intervals of five minutes in the period from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. The variables were evaluated by variograms fitted by residual maximum likelihood (REML) testing the Spherical and Exponential models. Kriging maps were generated based on the best model used to fit the variogram. It was possible to characterize the variability of the t db and BGHI, which allowed observing the spatial dependence by using geostatistics techniques. In addition, the use of geostatistics and distribution maps made possible to identify problems in the heating system in regions inside the broiler house that may harm the development of chicks.

Mapping of use and occupation of the soil and irrigation water quality in the city of Salto do Lontra-Paraná, Brazil

The objective of this study consisted on mapping the use and soil occupation and evaluation of the quality of irrigation water used in Salto do Lontra, in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Images of the satellite SPOT-5 were used to perform the supervised classification of the Maximum Likelihood algorithm - MAXVER, and the water quality parameters analyzed were pH, EC, HCO3-, Cl-, PO4(3-), NO3-, turbidity, temperature and thermotolerant coliforms in two distinct rainfall periods. The water quality data were subjected to statistical analysis by the techniques of PCA and FA, to identify the most relevant variables in assessing the quality of irrigation water. The characterization of soil use and occupation by the classifier MAXVER allowed the identification of the following classes: crops, bare soil/stubble, forests and urban area. The PCA technique applied to irrigation water quality data explained 53.27% of the variation in water quality among the sampled points. Nitrate, thermotolerant coliforms, temperature, electrical conductivity and bicarbonate were the parameters that best explained the spatial variation of water quality.

Geostatistics and remote sensing methods in the classification of images of areas cultivated with citrus

This study compares the precision of three image classification methods, two of remote sensing and one of geostatistics applied to areas cultivated with citrus. The 5,296.52ha area of study is located in the city of Araraquara - central region of the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil. The multispectral image from the CCD/CBERS-2B satellite was acquired in 2009 and processed through the Geographic Information System (GIS) SPRING. Three classification methods were used, one unsupervised (Cluster), and two supervised (Indicator Kriging/IK and Maximum Likelihood/Maxver), in addition to the screen classification taken as field checking.. Reliability of classifications was evaluated by Kappa index. In accordance with the Kappa index, the Indicator kriging method obtained the highest degree of reliability for bands 2 and 4. Moreover the Cluster method applied to band 2 (green) was the best quality classification between all the methods. Indicator Kriging was the classifier that presented the citrus total area closest to the field check estimated by -3.01%, whereas Maxver overestimated the total citrus area by 42.94%.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

The effectiveness of vocationally oriented multidisciplinary rehabilitation (ASLAK®) amongst public sector employees

In Finland, vocationally oriented medical rehabilitation (ASLAK®) is a common preventive rehabilitation measure with the primary goal of preserving and improving work ability. The ASLAK® programme has been used for almost 30 years, although limited data exist on its effectiveness. The aims of this study were to determine whether the increased risk of work disability predicts the participants’ likelihood to be granted ASLAK® rehabilitation and to assess the effectiveness of the programme in decreasing the risk of work disability and modifying health-risk behaviours. This study is a part of the on-going Finnish Public Sector Study conducted by the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Data on 53 416 employees (81% women) were gathered from employers’ records, national health registers and repeated survey responses. During the 5-year follow-up, increased levels of the risk factors for work disability did not predict participation in the rehabilitation programme. During the 2.8-year followup (range 0.04–5.0 years), the risk of long-term work disability (sick leave >90 days or retirement) overall or, more specifically, due to musculoskeletal or mental diseases did not differ between the rehabilitants who participated in ASLAK® in 1997–2005 and their propensity score matched controls. There was no evidence of ASLAK® being effective in changing participants’ health-risk behaviours or in improving perceived general or mental health. The results suggest that potential participant recognition, mainly taking place in occupational health care, may fail to identify those with a higher risk of work disability. No evidence on the effectiveness of the programme was found in the study cohort when measured by the selected indicators.

Effects of Country of Origin on Consumer Product Evaluations: Finnish clothing products in the minds of Russian tourists

Companies operating in today’s highly internationalized markets consider product differentiation the key priority in pursue to attain a constant competitive advantage in challenging global environment (Baker and Ballington 2002, 158). The main driver affecting companies’ differentiation actions was described as early as 1912 by one of the marketing pioneers A. W. Shaw (1912, 710) as meeting human wants more accurate than the competition, and thus increasing customers’ perceived value and satisfaction. Dickson and Ginter (1987, 2) point out in their study based on earlier research by Chamberlin (1965) and Porter (1976) that differentiation can be based on either tangible characteristics of a product such as design or intangible characteristics such as a brand name and country of origin (hereafter referred to as COO). The concept of COO and its impact on consumers’ evaluation of a product as an extrinsic product cue has been one of the most noteworthy topics in international marketing, having been voluminously examined by over 780 authors in more than 750 academic publications in the past 40 years (Papadopoulos and Heslop 2002, 294). Many of these studies accentuate the significant effect the COO has on consumers’ product attribute evaluations. People routinely associate country images with products and services in order to judge and categorize them based on perceived quality and risk levels; thereby COO can influence the likelihood of a purchase (Peterson and Jolibert 1995, 883-884; Verlegh and Steenkamp 1999, 523). Based on the vast research related to COO in the field of international business, it is widely recognized that the country associated with a product can act in a similar way as the name of a brand and even become a part of product’s total image. Thereby depending on customer’s values and perceptions, the product-country image can either increase or decrease perceived value.

Anastomose esôfago-jejunal látero-lateral com grampeador linear cortante complementada por sutura manual

One of the most difficult procedures in digestive-tract surgery is esophago-jejunal anastomosis following total gastrectomy. Cost/benefit analysis of this procedure justifies the use of mechanical staplers, in spite of their high cost. A technical variant of the side-to-side esophago-jejunal anastomosis is presented, which incorporates the use of a cutting linear stapler. Technical maneuvers are easy to perform, the cost of the cutting linear stapler is smaller than the circular ones, the amplitude of the anastomosis is wider and the likelihood of fistulae is smaller when compared to other techniques. The side-to-side esophago-jejunal anastomosis with the cutting linear stapler is always complemented by a manual suture.

Evaluation of common mental disorders in women with polycystic ovary syndrome and its relationship with body mass index

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prevalence of common mental disorders in women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome as compared with paired controls without this syndrome. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with a Control Group examining women between the ages of 18 and 30 who did not use antidepressants and who sought the Gynecology Service of the researched sites. For every woman diagnosed with the polycystic ovary syndrome, another with the same age, educational status and presence or absence of sexual partners was sought without this diagnosis. In total, 166 patients agreed to participate, consisting of 95 diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome and 71 in the Control Group. The diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome was made by the presence of two from three criteria: oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea, clinical or biochemical hyperandrogenism and polycystic ovaries on transvaginal ultrasound, following exclusion of patients with Cushing's syndrome, congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and androgen-secreting tumors. Weight and height were measured to calculate the body mass index. The Self-Reporting Questionnaire, which evaluated 20 items, was used as an indicator of common mental disorders. A χ² analysis stratified by the category of body mass index was used to compare the prevalence of common mental disorders, between the groups of women with and without the polycystic ovary syndrome. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in age, education, presence of sexual partners, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, use of psychiatric medication, and search for consultation in mental health between the studied groups. The prevalence of obese women with indications of common mental disorders was significantly higher in women with polycystic ovary syndrome than in the Control Group. In the group with healthy body mass index, the incidence of common mental disorders was statistically significant different between women with polycystic ovary syndrome and normal controls (p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Women with diagnosis of this disease have an almost three-fold increased likelihood of common mental disorders as compared with those without polycystic ovary syndrome. Although obesity is often observed in polycystic ovary syndrome, even women with a healthy body mass index have an increased risk of psychiatric comorbidity.