985 resultados para Financial Modelling
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Audit report on the Jackson County Sanitary Disposal Agency for the year ended June 30, 2008
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Audit report on the Wireless E911 Emergency Communication Fund of the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division of the Iowa Department of Public Defense for the year ended June 30, 2008
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Context There are no evidence syntheses available to guide clinicians on when to titrate antihypertensive medication after initiation. Objective To model the blood pressure (BP) response after initiating antihypertensive medication. Data sources electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Register and reference lists up to December 2009. Study selection Trials that initiated antihypertensive medication as single therapy in hypertensive patients who were either drug naive or had a placebo washout from previous drugs. Data extraction Office BP measurements at a minimum of two weekly intervals for a minimum of 4 weeks. An asymptotic approach model of BP response was assumed and non-linear mixed effects modelling used to calculate model parameters. Results and conclusions Eighteen trials that recruited 4168 patients met inclusion criteria. The time to reach 50% of the maximum estimated BP lowering effect was 1 week (systolic 0.91 weeks, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; diastolic 0.95, 0.75 to 1.15). Models incorporating drug class as a source of variability did not improve fit of the data. Incorporating the presence of a titration schedule improved model fit for both systolic and diastolic pressure. Titration increased both the predicted maximum effect and the time taken to reach 50% of the maximum (systolic 1.2 vs 0.7 weeks; diastolic 1.4 vs 0.7 weeks). Conclusions Estimates of the maximum efficacy of antihypertensive agents can be made early after starting therapy. This knowledge will guide clinicians in deciding when a newly started antihypertensive agent is likely to be effective or not at controlling BP.
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Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.
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Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'
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Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) of the Iowa Public Employees Retirement System (IPERS) for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2009. NOTE: this is a large file and may take a moment to download.
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Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.
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Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.
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Audit report on the Jackson County Sanitary Disposal Agency for the year ended June 30, 2009