Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Constraints on Be-10 and Ca-41 distribution in the early solar system from Al-26 and Be-10 studies of Efremovka CAIs

Three refractory coarse grained CAIs from the Efremovka CV3 chondrite, one (E65) previously shown to have formed with live Ca-41, were studied by ion microprobe for their Al-26-Mg-26 and Be-10-B-10 systematic in order to better understand the origin of Be-10. The high precision Al-Mg data and the inferred Al-26/Al-27 values attest that the precursors of the three CAIs evolved in the solar nebula over a period of few hundred thousand years before last melting-crystallization events. The initial Be-10/Be-9 ratios and delta B-10 values defined by the Be-10 isochrons for the three Efremovka CAIs are similar within errors. The CAI Be-10 abundance in published data underscores the large range for initial Be-10/Be-9 ratios. This is contrary to the relatively small range of Al-26/Al-27 variations in CAIs around the canonical ratio. Two models that could explain the origin of this large Be-10/Be-9 range are assessed from the collateral variations predicted for the initial delta B-10 values: (i) closed system decay of Be-10 from a ``canonical'' Be-10/Be-9 ratio and (ii) formation of CAIs from a mixture of solid precursors and nebula gas irradiated during up to a few hundred thousand years. The second scenario is shown to be the most consistent with the data. This shows that the major fraction of Be-10 in CAIs was produced by irradiation of refractory grains, while contributions of galactic cosmic rays trapping and early solar wind irradiation are less dominant. The case for Be-10 production by solar cosmic rays irradiation of solid refractory precursors poses a conundrum for Ca-41 because the latter is easily produced by irradiation and should be more abundant than what is observed in CAIs. Be-10 production by irradiation from solar energetic particles requires high Ca-41 abundance in early solar system, however, this is not observed in CAIs. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early osseointegration of a strontium containing glass ceramic in a rabbit model

The most important property of a bone cement or a bone substitute in load bearing orthopaedic implants is good integration with host bone with reduced bone resorption and increased bone regeneration at the implant interface. Long term implantation of metal-based joint replacements often results in corrosion and particle release, initiating chronic inflammation leading onto osteoporosis of host bone. An alternative solution is the coating of metal implants with hydroxyapatite (HA) or bioglass or the use of bulk bioglass or HA-based composites. In the above perspective, the present study reports the in vivo biocompatibility and bone healing of the strontium (Sr)-stabilized bulk glass ceramics with the nominal composition of 4.5SiO(2)-3Al(2)O(3)-1.5P(2)O(5)-3SrO-2SrF(2) during short term implantation of up to 12 weeks in rabbit animal model. The progression of healing and bone regeneration was qualitatively and quantitatively assessed using fluorescence microscopy, histological analysis and micro-computed tomography. The overall assessment of the present study establishes that the investigated glass ceramic is biocompatible in vivo with regards to local effects after short term implantation in rabbit animal model. Excellent healing was observed, which is comparable to that seen in response to a commercially available implant of HA-based bioglass alone. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An early in-situ stress signature of the AlN-Si pre-growth interface for successful integration of nitrides with (111) Si

The integration of Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) grown group III-A nitride device stacks on Si (111) substrates is critically dependent on the quality of the first AlN buffer layer grown. A Si surface that is both oxide-free and smooth is a primary requirement for nucleating such layers. A single parameter, the AlN layer growth stress, is shown to be an early (within 50 nm), clear (<0.5 GPa versus > 1GPa), and fail-safe indicator of the pre-growth surface, and the AlN quality required for successful epitaxy. Grain coalescence model for stress generation is used to correlate growth stress, the AlN-Si interface, and crystal quality. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

Better early osteogenesis of electroconductive hydroxyapatite-calcium titanate composites in a rabbit animal model

In view of the fact that bone healing can be enhanced due to external electric field application, it is important to assess the influence of the implant conductivity on the bone regeneration in vivo. To address this issue, this study reports the in vivo biocompatibility property of multistage spark plasma sintered hydroxyapatite (HA)-80 wt % calcium titanate (CaTiO3) composites and monolithic HA, which have widely different conductivity property (14 orders of magnitude difference). The ability of bone regeneration was assessed by implantation in cylindrical femoral bone defects of rabbit animal model for varying time period of 1, 4, and 12 weeks. The overall assessment of the histology results suggests that the progressive healing of bone defects around HA-80 wt % CaTiO3 is associated with a better efficacy with respect to (w.r.t) early stage neobone formation, which is histomorphometrically around 140% higher than monolithic HA. Overall, this study demonstrates that the in vivo biocompatibility property of HA-80 wt % CaTiO3 with respect to local effects after 12 weeks of implantation is not compromised both qualitatively and quantitatively, and a comparison with control implant (HA) points toward the critical role of electrical conductivity on better early stage bone regeneration. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 102A: 842-851, 2014.

A Study of Early Afterdepolarizations in a Model for Human Ventricular Tissue

Sudden cardiac death is often caused by cardiac arrhythmias. Recently, special attention has been given to a certain arrhythmogenic condition, the long-QT syndrome, which occurs as a result of genetic mutations or drug toxicity. The underlying mechanisms of arrhythmias, caused by the long-QT syndrome, are not fully understood. However, arrhythmias are often connected to special excitations of cardiac cells, called early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are depolarizations during the repolarizing phase of the action potential. So far, EADs have been studied mainly in isolated cardiac cells. However, the question on how EADs at the single-cell level can result in fibrillation at the tissue level, especially in human cell models, has not been widely studied yet. In this paper, we study wave patterns that result from single-cell EAD dynamics in a mathematical model for human ventricular cardiac tissue. We induce EADs by modeling experimental conditions which have been shown to evoke EADs at a single-cell level: by an increase of L-type Ca currents and a decrease of the delayed rectifier potassium currents. We show that, at the tissue level and depending on these parameters, three types of abnormal wave patterns emerge. We classify them into two types of spiral fibrillation and one type of oscillatory dynamics. Moreover, we find that the emergent wave patterns can be driven by calcium or sodium currents and we find phase waves in the oscillatory excitation regime. From our simulations we predict that arrhythmias caused by EADs can occur during normal wave propagation and do not require tissue heterogeneities. Experimental verification of our results is possible for experiments at the cell-culture level, where EADs can be induced by an increase of the L-type calcium conductance and by the application of I-Kr blockers, and the properties of the emergent patterns can be studied by optical mapping of the voltage and calcium.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.