Trade and industrial policy in developing countries : what scope for interfaces between agent-based models and computable-general equilibrium models

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

Different personality measures for different business outcomes : a comparison of selection criteria used for a management training program

Reports a study in which the MBTI, FIRO-B and PP measures were correlated with employee performance indicators of high potential candidates for management development. The participants were 37 middle level managers in a large trans-national company. Results indicate a disturbing disconnect between measures used in training and development and actual business outcomes that can be presumed to express organisational priorities and goals.

A study on the accuracy of frequency measures and its impact on knowledge discovery in single sequences

In knowledge discovery in single sequences, different results could be discovered from the same sequence when different frequency measures are adopted. It is natural to raise such questions as (1) do these frequency measures reflect actual frequencies accurately? (2) what impacts do frequency measures have on discovered knowledge? (3) are discovered results accurate and reliable? and (4) which measures are appropriate for reflecting frequencies accurately? In this paper, taking three major factors (anti-monotonicity, maximum-frequency and window-width restriction) into account, we identify inaccuracies inherent in seven existing frequency measures, and investigate their impacts on the soundness and completeness of two kinds of knowledge, frequent episodes and episode rules, discovered from single sequences. In order to obtain more accurate frequencies and knowledge, we provide three recommendations for defining appropriate frequency measures. Following the recommendations, we introduce a more appropriate frequency measure. Empirical evaluation reveals the inaccuracies and verifies our findings. 

The validity of the CGI severity and improvement scales as measures of clinical effectiveness suitable for routine clinical use

Objective The Clinical Global Impression Scale (CGI) is established as a core metric in psychiatric research. This study aims to test the validity of CGI as a clinical outcome measure suitable for routine use in a private inpatient setting.

Methods The CGI was added to a standard battery of routine outcome measures in a private psychiatric hospital. Data were collected on consecutive admissions over a period of 24 months, which included clinical diagnosis, demographics, service utilization and four routine measures (CGI, HoNOS, MHQ-14 and DASS-21) at both admission and discharge. Descriptive and comparative data analyses were performed.

Results Of 786 admissions in total, there were 624 and 614 CGI-S ratings completed at the point of admission and discharge, respectively, and 610 completed CGI-I ratings. The admission and discharge CGI-S scores were correlated (r = 0.40), and the indirect improvement measures obtained from their differences were highly correlated with the direct CGI-I scores (r = 0.71). The CGI results reflected similar trends seen in the other three outcome measures.

Conclusions The CGI is a valid clinical outcome measure suitable for routine use in an inpatient setting. It offers a number of advantages, including its established utility in psychiatric research, sensitivity to change, quick and simple administration, utility across diagnostic groupings, and reliability in the hands of skilled clinicians.

Impact of positively- versus negatively-worded items on the factor structure of three psychological measures: W-BQ22, W-BQ12 & SF-36

Background: The 22-item Well-being Questionnaire (W-BQ22) (Bradley, 1994) includes Anxiety, Depression, Energy and Positive Well-being subscales. However, the constructs of anxiety and depression could not be easily distinguished from each other. Consequently, the W-BQ12 was designed to include just three subscales, Negative Well-being (including only negatively-worded anxiety and depression items), Energy (2 positively- and 2 negativelyworded items) and Positive Well-being (all positively-worded items). The SF-36 (Ware & Sherbourne, 1983), a widely used health status measure, includes a 4-item vitality subscale (2 positively- and 2 negatively-worded items) and a 5-item mental health scale (2 positively worded and 3 negatively-worded items).

Method: Factor structures of W-BQ22, W-BQ12 and SF-36 were compared using data from 789 outpatients with diabetes.

Results: W-BQ22 factor analysis showed negatively-worded anxiety and depression items loading together, while positively-worded depression items loaded with positive well-being items and separately from positively-worded anxiety items. W-BQ12 loaded as intended on 3 factors, with negatively-worded anxiety and depression items loading together on one factor: negative well-being. The four energy items (2 positively- and 2 negatively-worded) loaded together (factor 3) and the four positive well-being items loaded together (factor 1). Unforced factor analysis of the SF-36 produced 5 factors and split the mental health and vitality items into two components, which could only be defined in terms of positive and negative wording. A forced 8-factor solution produced similar results, with the mental health and vitality items being split into two components according to their positive or negative wording. A forced 2-factor solution brought mental health/vitality items together, separate from physical health items.

Conclusion: The previously unrecognised influence of positive and negative wording on factor structure is clearly shown here to be of importance in conceptualising and designing measures of psychological well-being to be used with people with diabetes and may be of relevance for other populations.

A systematic review of the validity and reliability of sedentary behaviour measures used with children and adolescents

The aim of this review was to evaluate the reliability and validity of methods used to assess the multiple components of sedentary behaviour (i.e. screen time, sitting, not moving and existing at low energy expenditure) in children and adolescents. Twenty-six studies met our inclusion criteria and were reviewed. Thirteen studies reported the reliability of self- and proxy-report measures of sedentary behaviour and seven of these were found to have acceptable test–retest reliability. Evidence for the criterion validity of self- and proxy-report measures was examined in three studies with mixed results. Seven studies examined the reliability and/or validity of direct observation and the findings were generally positive. Five studies demonstrated the utility of accelerometers to accurately classify sedentary behaviour. Self-report measures provide reliable estimates of screen time, yet their validity remains largely untested. While accelerometers can accurately classify participants’ behaviour as sedentary, they do not provide information about type of sedentary behaviour or context. Studies utilizing measures of sedentary behaviour need to more adequately report on the validity and reliability of the measures used.We recommend the use of objective measures of sedentary behaviour such as accelerometers, in conjunction with subjective measures (e.g. self-report), to assess type and context of behaviour.