Reliable computation of robust response tori on the verge of breakdown

We prove the existence and local uniqueness of invariant tori on the verge of breakdown for two systems: the quasi-periodically driven logistic map and the quasi-periodically forced standard map. These systems exemplify two scenarios: the Heagy-Hammel route for the creation of strange non- chaotic attractors and the nonsmooth bifurcation of saddle invariant tori. Our proofs are computer- assisted and are based on a tailored version of the Newton-Kantorovich theorem. The proofs cannot be performed using classical perturbation theory because the two scenarios are very far from the perturbative regime, and fundamental hypotheses such as reducibility or hyperbolicity either do not hold or are very close to failing. Our proofs are based on a reliable computation of the invariant tori and a careful study of their dynamical properties, leading to the rigorous validation of the numerical results with our novel computational techniques.

Brown algal phlorotannins: Improving and applying chemical methods

Phlorotannins are the least studied group of tannins and are found only in brown algae. Hitherto the roles of phlorotannins, e.g. in plant-herbivore interactions, have been studied by quantifying the total contents of the soluble phlorotannins with a variety of methods. Little attention has been given to either quantitative variation in cell-wall-bound and exuded phlorotannins or to qualitative variation in individual compounds. A quantification procedure was developed to measure the amount of cell-wall-bound phlorotannins. The quantification of soluble phlorotannins was adjusted for both large- and small-scale samples and used to estimate the amounts of exuded phlorotannins using bladder wrack (Fucus vesiculosus) as a model species. In addition, separation of individual soluble phlorotannins to produce a phlorotannin profile from the phenolic crude extract was achieved by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Along with these methodological studies, attention was focused on the factors in the procedure which generated variation in the yield of phlorotannins. The objective was to enhance the efficiency of the sample preparation procedure. To resolve the problem of rapid oxidation of phlorotannins in HPLC analyses, ascorbic acid was added to the extractant. The widely used colourimetric method was found to produce a variation in the yield that was dependent upon the pH and concentration of the sample. Using these developed, adjusted and modified methods, the phenotypic plasticity of phlorotannins was studied with respect to nutrient availability and herbivory. An increase in nutrients decreased the total amount of soluble phlorotannins but did not affect the cell-wall-bound phlorotannins, the exudation of phlorotannins or the phlorotannin profile achieved with HPLC. The presence of the snail Thedoxus fluviatilis on the thallus induced production of soluble phlorotannins, and grazing by the herbivorous isopod Idotea baltica increased the exudation of phlorotannins. To study whether the among-population variations in phlorotannin contents arise from the genetic divergence or from the plastic response of algae, or both, algae from separate populations were reared in a common garden. Genetic variation among local populations was found in both the phlorotannin profile and the content of total phlorotannins. Phlorotannins were also genetically variable within populations. This suggests that local algal populations have diverged in their contents of phlorotannins, and that they may respond to natural selection and evolve both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

CBS: an open platform that integrates predictive methods and epigenetics information to characterize conserved regulatory features in multiple Drosophila genomes.

Background: Information about the composition of regulatory regions is of great value for designing experiments to functionally characterize gene expression. The multiplicity of available applications to predict transcription factor binding sites in a particular locus contrasts with the substantial computational expertise that is demanded to manipulate them, which may constitute a potential barrier for the experimental community. Results: CBS (Conserved regulatory Binding Sites, http://compfly.bio.ub.es/CBS) is a public platform of evolutionarily conserved binding sites and enhancers predicted in multiple Drosophila genomes that is furnished with published chromatin signatures associated to transcriptionally active regions and other experimental sources of information. The rapid access to this novel body of knowledge through a user-friendly web interface enables non-expert users to identify the binding sequences available for any particular gene, transcription factor, or genome region. Conclusions: The CBS platform is a powerful resource that provides tools for data mining individual sequences and groups of co-expressed genes with epigenomics information to conduct regulatory screenings in Drosophila.

On the computation of reducible invariant tori on a parallel computer

We present an algorithm for the computation of reducible invariant tori of discrete dynamical systems that is suitable for tori of dimensions larger than 1. It is based on a quadratically convergent scheme that approximates, at the same time, the Fourier series of the torus, its Floquet transformation, and its Floquet matrix. The Floquet matrix describes the linearization of the dynamics around the torus and, hence, its linear stability. The algorithm presents a high degree of parallelism, and the computational effort grows linearly with the number of Fourier modes needed to represent the solution. For these reasons it is a very good option to compute quasi-periodic solutions with several basic frequencies. The paper includes some examples (flows) to show the efficiency of the method in a parallel computer. In these flows we compute invariant tori of dimensions up to 5, by taking suitable sections.

Rockfall susceptibility assessment and remote geological mapping with LiDAR point clouds

Characterizing the geological features and structures in three dimensions over inaccessible rock cliffs is needed to assess natural hazards such as rockfalls and rockslides and also to perform investigations aimed at mapping geological contacts and building stratigraphy and fold models. Indeed, the detailed 3D data, such as LiDAR point clouds, allow to study accurately the hazard processes and the structure of geologic features, in particular in vertical and overhanging rock slopes. Thus, 3D geological models have a great potential of being applied to a wide range of geological investigations both in research and applied geology projects, such as mines, tunnels and reservoirs. Recent development of ground-based remote sensing techniques (LiDAR, photogrammetry and multispectral / hyperspectral images) are revolutionizing the acquisition of morphological and geological information. As a consequence, there is a great potential for improving the modeling of geological bodies as well as failure mechanisms and stability conditions by integrating detailed remote data. During the past ten years several large rockfall events occurred along important transportation corridors where millions of people travel every year (Switzerland: Gotthard motorway and railway; Canada: Sea to sky highway between Vancouver and Whistler). These events show that there is still a lack of knowledge concerning the detection of potential rockfalls, making mountain residential settlements and roads highly risky. It is necessary to understand the main factors that destabilize rocky outcrops even if inventories are lacking and if no clear morphological evidences of rockfall activity are observed. In order to increase the possibilities of forecasting potential future landslides, it is crucial to understand the evolution of rock slope stability. Defining the areas theoretically most prone to rockfalls can be particularly useful to simulate trajectory profiles and to generate hazard maps, which are the basis for land use planning in mountainous regions. The most important questions to address in order to assess rockfall hazard are: Where are the most probable sources for future rockfalls located? What are the frequencies of occurrence of these rockfalls? I characterized the fracturing patterns in the field and with LiDAR point clouds. Afterwards, I developed a model to compute the failure mechanisms on terrestrial point clouds in order to assess the susceptibility to rockfalls at the cliff scale. Similar procedures were already available to evaluate the susceptibility to rockfalls based on aerial digital elevation models. This new model gives the possibility to detect the most susceptible rockfall sources with unprecented detail in the vertical and overhanging areas. The results of the computation of the most probable rockfall source areas in granitic cliffs of Yosemite Valley and Mont-Blanc massif were then compared to the inventoried rockfall events to validate the calculation methods. Yosemite Valley was chosen as a test area because it has a particularly strong rockfall activity (about one rockfall every week) which leads to a high rockfall hazard. The west face of the Dru was also chosen for the relevant rockfall activity and especially because it was affected by some of the largest rockfalls that occurred in the Alps during the last 10 years. Moreover, both areas were suitable because of their huge vertical and overhanging cliffs that are difficult to study with classical methods. Limit equilibrium models have been applied to several case studies to evaluate the effects of different parameters on the stability of rockslope areas. The impact of the degradation of rockbridges on the stability of large compartments in the west face of the Dru was assessed using finite element modeling. In particular I conducted a back-analysis of the large rockfall event of 2005 (265'000 m3) by integrating field observations of joint conditions, characteristics of fracturing pattern and results of geomechanical tests on the intact rock. These analyses improved our understanding of the factors that influence the stability of rock compartments and were used to define the most probable future rockfall volumes at the Dru. Terrestrial laser scanning point clouds were also successfully employed to perform geological mapping in 3D, using the intensity of the backscattered signal. Another technique to obtain vertical geological maps is combining triangulated TLS mesh with 2D geological maps. At El Capitan (Yosemite Valley) we built a georeferenced vertical map of the main plutonio rocks that was used to investigate the reasons for preferential rockwall retreat rate. Additional efforts to characterize the erosion rate were made at Monte Generoso (Ticino, southern Switzerland) where I attempted to improve the estimation of long term erosion by taking into account also the volumes of the unstable rock compartments. Eventually, the following points summarize the main out puts of my research: The new model to compute the failure mechanisms and the rockfall susceptibility with 3D point clouds allows to define accurately the most probable rockfall source areas at the cliff scale. The analysis of the rockbridges at the Dru shows the potential of integrating detailed measurements of the fractures in geomechanical models of rockmass stability. The correction of the LiDAR intensity signal gives the possibility to classify a point cloud according to the rock type and then use this information to model complex geologic structures. The integration of these results, on rockmass fracturing and composition, with existing methods can improve rockfall hazard assessments and enhance the interpretation of the evolution of steep rockslopes. -- La caractérisation de la géologie en 3D pour des parois rocheuses inaccessibles est une étape nécessaire pour évaluer les dangers naturels tels que chutes de blocs et glissements rocheux, mais aussi pour réaliser des modèles stratigraphiques ou de structures plissées. Les modèles géologiques 3D ont un grand potentiel pour être appliqués dans une vaste gamme de travaux géologiques dans le domaine de la recherche, mais aussi dans des projets appliqués comme les mines, les tunnels ou les réservoirs. Les développements récents des outils de télédétection terrestre (LiDAR, photogrammétrie et imagerie multispectrale / hyperspectrale) sont en train de révolutionner l'acquisition d'informations géomorphologiques et géologiques. Par conséquence, il y a un grand potentiel d'amélioration pour la modélisation d'objets géologiques, ainsi que des mécanismes de rupture et des conditions de stabilité, en intégrant des données détaillées acquises à distance. Pour augmenter les possibilités de prévoir les éboulements futurs, il est fondamental de comprendre l'évolution actuelle de la stabilité des parois rocheuses. Définir les zones qui sont théoriquement plus propices aux chutes de blocs peut être très utile pour simuler les trajectoires de propagation des blocs et pour réaliser des cartes de danger, qui constituent la base de l'aménagement du territoire dans les régions de montagne. Les questions plus importantes à résoudre pour estimer le danger de chutes de blocs sont : Où se situent les sources plus probables pour les chutes de blocs et éboulement futurs ? Avec quelle fréquence vont se produire ces événements ? Donc, j'ai caractérisé les réseaux de fractures sur le terrain et avec des nuages de points LiDAR. Ensuite, j'ai développé un modèle pour calculer les mécanismes de rupture directement sur les nuages de points pour pouvoir évaluer la susceptibilité au déclenchement de chutes de blocs à l'échelle de la paroi. Les zones sources de chutes de blocs les plus probables dans les parois granitiques de la vallée de Yosemite et du massif du Mont-Blanc ont été calculées et ensuite comparés aux inventaires des événements pour vérifier les méthodes. Des modèles d'équilibre limite ont été appliqués à plusieurs cas d'études pour évaluer les effets de différents paramètres sur la stabilité des parois. L'impact de la dégradation des ponts rocheux sur la stabilité de grands compartiments de roche dans la paroi ouest du Petit Dru a été évalué en utilisant la modélisation par éléments finis. En particulier j'ai analysé le grand éboulement de 2005 (265'000 m3), qui a emporté l'entier du pilier sud-ouest. Dans le modèle j'ai intégré des observations des conditions des joints, les caractéristiques du réseau de fractures et les résultats de tests géoméchaniques sur la roche intacte. Ces analyses ont amélioré l'estimation des paramètres qui influencent la stabilité des compartiments rocheux et ont servi pour définir des volumes probables pour des éboulements futurs. Les nuages de points obtenus avec le scanner laser terrestre ont été utilisés avec succès aussi pour produire des cartes géologiques en 3D, en utilisant l'intensité du signal réfléchi. Une autre technique pour obtenir des cartes géologiques des zones verticales consiste à combiner un maillage LiDAR avec une carte géologique en 2D. A El Capitan (Yosemite Valley) nous avons pu géoréferencer une carte verticale des principales roches plutoniques que j'ai utilisé ensuite pour étudier les raisons d'une érosion préférentielle de certaines zones de la paroi. D'autres efforts pour quantifier le taux d'érosion ont été effectués au Monte Generoso (Ticino, Suisse) où j'ai essayé d'améliorer l'estimation de l'érosion au long terme en prenant en compte les volumes des compartiments rocheux instables. L'intégration de ces résultats, sur la fracturation et la composition de l'amas rocheux, avec les méthodes existantes permet d'améliorer la prise en compte de l'aléa chute de pierres et éboulements et augmente les possibilités d'interprétation de l'évolution des parois rocheuses.

New kernel functions and learning methods for text and data mining

Recent advances in machine learning methods enable increasingly the automatic construction of various types of computer assisted methods that have been difficult or laborious to program by human experts. The tasks for which this kind of tools are needed arise in many areas, here especially in the fields of bioinformatics and natural language processing. The machine learning methods may not work satisfactorily if they are not appropriately tailored to the task in question. However, their learning performance can often be improved by taking advantage of deeper insight of the application domain or the learning problem at hand. This thesis considers developing kernel-based learning algorithms incorporating this kind of prior knowledge of the task in question in an advantageous way. Moreover, computationally efficient algorithms for training the learning machines for specific tasks are presented. In the context of kernel-based learning methods, the incorporation of prior knowledge is often done by designing appropriate kernel functions. Another well-known way is to develop cost functions that fit to the task under consideration. For disambiguation tasks in natural language, we develop kernel functions that take account of the positional information and the mutual similarities of words. It is shown that the use of this information significantly improves the disambiguation performance of the learning machine. Further, we design a new cost function that is better suitable for the task of information retrieval and for more general ranking problems than the cost functions designed for regression and classification. We also consider other applications of the kernel-based learning algorithms such as text categorization, and pattern recognition in differential display. We develop computationally efficient algorithms for training the considered learning machines with the proposed kernel functions. We also design a fast cross-validation algorithm for regularized least-squares type of learning algorithm. Further, an efficient version of the regularized least-squares algorithm that can be used together with the new cost function for preference learning and ranking tasks is proposed. In summary, we demonstrate that the incorporation of prior knowledge is possible and beneficial, and novel advanced kernels and cost functions can be used in algorithms efficiently.

Reuse of information for selection of methods and operating conditions for drying of pharmaceutical materials

Drying is a major step in the manufacturing process in pharmaceutical industries, and the selection of dryer and operating conditions are sometimes a bottleneck. In spite of difficulties, the bottlenecks are taken care of with utmost care due to good manufacturing practices (GMP) and industries' image in the global market. The purpose of this work is to research the use of existing knowledge for the selection of dryer and its operating conditions for drying of pharmaceutical materials with the help of methods like case-based reasoning and decision trees to reduce time and expenditure for research. The work consisted of two major parts as follows: Literature survey on the theories of spray dying, case-based reasoning and decision trees; working part includes data acquisition and testing of the models based on existing and upgraded data. Testing resulted in a combination of two models, case-based reasoning and decision trees, leading to more specific results when compared to conventional methods.

Implementing Agile Software Development Methods in a Small Organization

Currently there is a vogue for Agile Software Development methods and many software development organizations have already implemented or they are planning to implement agile methods. Objective of this thesis is to define how agile software development methods are implemented in a small organization. Agile methods covered in this thesis are Scrum and XP. From both methods the key practices are analysed and compared to waterfall method. This thesis also defines implementation strategy and actions how agile methods are implemented in a small organization. In practice organization must prepare well and all needed meters are defined before the implementation starts. In this work three different sample projects are introduced where agile methods were implemented. Experiences from these projects were encouraging although sample set of projects were too small to get trustworthy results.

Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.