995 resultados para Auto regressive models


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Tendo em conta as funções da nacionalidade e da nação, a via da concessão nacionalidade enquanto estratégia política para a promoção da integração social dos imigrantes poderá não será a mais adequada. Mais do que facilitar a concessão da nacionalidade, cuja aquisição deverá ser o culminar de um processo de integração social bem sucedido, os esforços políticos deverão centrar-se na extensão da cidadania e do respectivo catálogo de direitos e deveres, de modo a assegurar não só a protecção dos estrangeiros, mas também a estabilidade social da nação e do Estado.

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n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

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This review describes some dysimmune neuromuscular disorders and their recent management: syndrome of peripheral nerve hyperexcitability (treatment of cramps, immunosuppressors); Guillain-Barré syndrome (new mechanisms and consensus treatment); chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (new indication for the use of pulse dexamethasone, new scores of activity); importance of subcutaneous immunoglobulin in multifocal motor neuropathy and of infusions of rituximab in myasthenia gravis; new entities in myositis and their treatment.

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Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

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In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

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In response to DNA damage, p53-induced protein with a death domain (PIDD) forms a complex called the PIDDosome, which either consists of PIDD, RIP-associated protein with a death domain and caspase-2, forming a platform for the activation of caspase-2, or contains PIDD, RIP1 and NEMO, important for NF-κB activation. PIDDosome activation is dependent on auto-processing of PIDD at two different sites, generating the fragments PIDD-C and PIDD-CC. Despite constitutive cleavage, endogenous PIDD remains inactive. In this study, we screened for novel PIDD regulators and identified heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) as a major effector in both PIDD protein maturation and activation. Hsp90, together with p23, binds PIDD and inhibition of Hsp90 activity with geldanamycin efficiently disrupts this association and impairs PIDD auto-processing. Consequently, both PIDD-mediated NF-κB and caspase-2 activation are abrogated. Interestingly, PIDDosome formation itself is associated with Hsp90 release. Characterisation of cytoplasmic and nuclear pools of PIDD showed that active PIDD accumulates in the nucleus and that only cytoplasmic PIDD is bound to Hsp90. Finally, heat shock induces Hsp90 release from PIDD and PIDD nuclear translocation. Thus, Hsp90 has a major role in controlling PIDD functional activity.

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Mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue 1 (MALT1) controls antigen receptor-mediated signalling to nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) through both its adaptor and protease function. Upon antigen stimulation, MALT1 forms a complex with BCL10 and CARMA1, which is essential for initial IκBα phosphorylation and NF-κB nuclear translocation. Parallel induction of MALT1 protease activity serves to inactivate negative regulators of NF-κB signalling, such as A20 and RELB. Here we demonstrate a key role for auto-proteolytic MALT1 cleavage in B- and T-cell receptor signalling. MALT1 cleavage occurred after Arginine 149, between the N-terminal death domain and the first immunoglobulin-like region, and did not affect its proteolytic activity. Jurkat T cells expressing an un-cleavable MALT1-R149A mutant showed unaltered initial IκBα phosphorylation and normal nuclear accumulation of NF-κB subunits. Nevertheless, MALT1 cleavage was required for optimal activation of NF-κB reporter genes and expression of the NF-κB targets IL-2 and CSF2. Transcriptome analysis confirmed that MALT1 cleavage after R149 was required to induce NF-κB transcriptional activity in Jurkat T cells. Collectively, these data demonstrate that auto-proteolytic MALT1 cleavage controls antigen receptor-induced expression of NF-κB target genes downstream of nuclear NF-κB accumulation.

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Biological monitoring of occupational exposure is characterized by important variability, due both to variability in the environment and to biological differences between workers. A quantitative description and understanding of this variability is important for a dependable application of biological monitoring. This work describes this variability,using a toxicokinetic model, for a large range of chemicals for which reference biological reference values exist. A toxicokinetic compartmental model describing both the parent compound and its metabolites was used. For each chemical, compartments were given physiological meaning. Models were elaborated based on physiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data when available, and on half-lives and central compartment concentrations when not available. Fourteen chemicals were studied (arsenic, cadmium, carbon monoxide, chromium, cobalt, ethylbenzene, ethyleneglycol monomethylether, fluorides, lead, mercury, methyl isobutyl ketone, penthachlorophenol, phenol, and toluene), representing 20 biological indicators. Occupational exposures were simulated using Monte Carlo techniques with realistic distributions of both individual physiological parameters and exposure conditions. Resulting biological indicator levels were then analyzed to identify the contribution of environmental and biological variability to total variability. Comparison of predicted biological indicator levels with biological exposure limits showed a high correlation with the model for 19 out of 20 indicators. Variability associated with changes in exposure levels (GSD of 1.5 and 2.0) is shown to be mainly influenced by the kinetics of the biological indicator. Thus, with regard to variability, we can conclude that, for the 14 chemicals modeled, biological monitoring would be preferable to air monitoring. For short half-lives (less than 7 hr), this is very similar to the environmental variability. However, for longer half-lives, estimated variability decreased. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene for the following free supplemental resource: tables detailing the CBTK models for all 14 chemicals and the symbol nomenclature that was used.] [Authors]

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We present a non-equilibrium theory in a system with heat and radiative fluxes. The obtained expression for the entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional climate model based on the first law of thermodynamics. In the model, the dissipative fluxes are assumed to be independent variables, following the criteria of the Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (BIT) that enlarges, in reference to the classical expression, the applicability of a macroscopic thermodynamic theory for systems far from equilibrium. We analyze the second differential of the classical and the generalized entropy as a criteria of stability of the steady states. Finally, the extreme state is obtained using variational techniques and observing that the system is close to the maximum dissipation rate

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Classic climatic models use constitutive laws without any response time. A more realistic approach to the natural processes governing climate dynamics must introduce response time for heat and radiation fluxes. Extended irreversible thermodynamics (EIT) is a good thermodynamical framework for introducing nonclassical constitutive laws. In the present study EIT has been used to analyze a Budyko–Sellers one-dimensional energybalance model developed by G. R. North. The results present self-sustained periodic oscillations when the response time is greater than a critical value. The high-frequency (few kiloyears) damped and nondamped oscillations obtained can be related to abrupt climatic changes without any variation in the external forcing of the system

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Here I develop a model of a radiative-convective atmosphere with both radiative and convective schemes highly simplified. The atmospheric absorption of radiation at selective wavelengths makes use of constant mass absorption coefficients in finite width spectral bands. The convective regime is introduced by using a prescribed lapse rate in the troposphere. The main novelty of the radiative-convective model developed here is that it is solved without using any angular approximation for the radiation field. The solution obtained in the purely radiation mode (i. e. with convection ignored) leads to multiple equilibria of stable states, being very similar to some results recently found in simple models of planetary atmospheres. However, the introduction of convective processes removes the multiple equilibria of stable states. This shows the importance of taking convective processes into account even for qualitative analyses of planetary atmosphere

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The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

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Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

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The integrity of central and peripheral nervous system myelin is affected in numerous lipid metabolism disorders. This vulnerability was so far mostly attributed to the extraordinarily high level of lipid synthesis that is required for the formation of myelin, and to the relative autonomy in lipid synthesis of myelinating glial cells because of blood barriers shielding the nervous system from circulating lipids. Recent insights from analysis of inherited lipid disorders, especially those with prevailing lipid depletion and from mouse models with glia-specific disruption of lipid metabolism, shed new light on this issue. The particular lipid composition of myelin, the transport of lipid-associated myelin proteins, and the necessity for timely assembly of the myelin sheath all contribute to the observed vulnerability of myelin to perturbed lipid metabolism. Furthermore, the uptake of external lipids may also play a role in the formation of myelin membranes. In addition to an improved understanding of basic myelin biology, these data provide a foundation for future therapeutic interventions aiming at preserving glial cell integrity in metabolic disorders.