Effectiveness and transmission of the ECB’s balance sheet policies. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 275, December 2014

We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity and prices. The effects on bank lending and output turn out to be smaller in the member countries that have been more affected by the financial crisis, in particular those countries where the banking system is less well-capitalized.

Gazprom’s evolving strategy in a new commercial and political context: how should the EU react? EPC Policy Brief, 27 April 2015

After years of unchallenged commercial domination of a sizeable portion of the EU's gas market, Gazprom is confronted with a statement of objections issued on 22 April by the EU Commission for abusing its dominant market position. The company was already prevented from going ahead with its South Stream project aimed at consolidating Gazprom's grip on Southeast Europe's markets by bypassing Ukraine – due to alleged non-compliance of intergovernmental agreements with the EU regulatory framework. Furthermore, it walked away from negotiations that could have allowed it to access more than 50% of the OPAL pipeline – an onshore branch of the offshore Russian German Nord Stream pipeline –, whilst its attempts to go downstream through the acquisition of European distribution and transmission operators, such as Wingas and DESFA, failed due to current political tensions and the risk of a negative Commission ruling on the operation. Does this mean that the Russian gas behemoth – so often portrayed as the energy arm of the Kremlin – is not so powerful after all? This Policy Brief aims to frame the erosion of Gazprom's power in a wider perspective, analysing its peculiar position at a time of transition, with the global gas business going from a sellers' to a buyers' market, and providing recommendations on how Europe should deal with it. It will be argued that Gazprom – despite still being affected by the Kremlin's political priorities – is moving towards more commercially sound behavior. The EU should profit from this evolution without being tempted by mercantilist options, and rather use the political momentum provided by the energy union to remove barriers to solidarity and to increase competition on the trading platforms.

Particel size distribution and microstructures of sediments from ODP Leg 205 sites (Table 1)

Ocean Drilling Program Legs 170 and 205 offshore Costa Rica provide structural observations which support a new model for the geometry and deformation response to the seismic cycle of the frontal sedimentary prism and decollement. The model is based on drillcore, thin section, and electron microscope observations. The decollement damage zone is a few tens of meters in width, it develops mainly within the frontal prism. A clear cm-thick fault core is observed 1.6 km from the trench. The lower boundary of the fault core is coincident with the lithological boundary between the frontal prism and the hemipelagic and pelagic sediment of the Cocos plate. Breccia clast distributions in the upper portion of the decollement damage zone were studied through fractal analysis. This analysis shows that the fractal dimension changes with brecciated fragment size, implying that deformation was not accommodated by self-similar fracturing. A higher fractal dimensionality correlates with smaller particle size, which indicates that different or additional grain-size reduction processes operated during shearing. The co-existence of two distinct fracturing processes is also confirmed by microscopic analysis in which extension fracturing in the upper part of the damage zone farthest from the fault core is frequent, while both extension and shear fracturing occur approaching the fault core. The coexistence of extensional and shear fracturing seems to be best explained by fluid pressure variations in response to variations of the compressional regime during the seismic cycle. During the co-seismic event, sub-horizontal compression and fluid pressure increase, triggering shear fracturing and fluid expulsion. Fractures migrate upward with fluids, contributing to the asymmetric shape of the decollement, while slip propagates. In the inter-seismic interval the frontal prismrelaxes and fluid pressure drops. The frontal prismgoes into diffuse extension during the intervalwhen plate convergence is accommodated by creep along the ductile fault core. The fault core is typically a barrier to deformation, which is explained by its weak, but impermeable, nature. The localized development of a damage zone beneath the fault core is characterized by shear fracturing that appears as the result of local strengthening of the detachment.

(Table 1) Stratigraphic distribution and abundances of Cretaceous radiolarians from ODP Holes 130-803D and 130-807C

Among the five sites drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 130, two deep holes (8O3D and 807C) penetrated Cretaceous sediments overlying the basaltic pillows, flows, and possibly basement rocks. Abundant, poorly preserved radiolarians with limited diversity were recovered from a few horizons within the sediments proximal to the basalt. At Site 803, three thin layers of radiolarites interbedded with claystone and clayey siltstone yielded radiolarian assemblages of late Albian age. At Site 807, several layers of radiolarian siltstones were recovered proximal to the basalt. Among them the most significant radiolarian assemblage is an Aptian fauna, located approximately 7 m above the basaltic flows. The Aptian radiolarian age for Site 807 is at least in accord with those suggested by planktonic foraminifer and paleomagnetic evidence. These Cretaceous radiolarians are the oldest assemblages recorded from the Ontong Java Plateau region.