The value of tail risk hedging in defined contribution plans: What does history tell us

Hedging against tail events in equity markets has been forcefully advocated in the aftermath of recent global financial crisis. Whether this is beneficial to long horizon investors like employees enrolled in defined contribution (DC) plans, however, has been subject to criticism. We conduct historical simulation since 1928 to examine the effectiveness of active and passive tail risk hedging using out of money put options for hypothetical equity portfolios of DC plan participants with 20 years to retirement. Our findings show that the cost of tail hedging exceeds the benefits for a majority of the plan participants during the sample period. However, for a significant number of simulations, hedging result in superior outcomes relative to an unhedged position. Active tail hedging is more effective when employees confront several panic-driven periods characterized by short and sharp market swings in the equity markets over the investment horizon. Passive hedging, on the other hand, proves beneficial when they encounter an extremely rare event like the Great Depression as equity markets go into deep and prolonged decline.

Faster parameter estimation using risk-sensitive filters

In this paper, we propose a risk-sensitive approach to parameter estimation for hidden Markov models (HMMs). The parameter estimation approach considered exploits estimation of various functions of the state, based on model estimates. We propose certain practical suboptimal risk-sensitive filters to estimate the various functions of the state during transients, rather than optimal risk-neutral filters as in earlier studies. The estimates are asymptotically optimal, if asymptotically risk neutral, and can give significantly improved transient performance, which is a very desirable objective for certain engineering applications. To demonstrate the improvement in estimation simulation studies are presented that compare parameter estimation based on risk-sensitive filters with estimation based on risk-neutral filters.

The relationship between 'reasonably practicable'and risk management regulation

This paper examines two concepts which are central to contemporary standard setting in occupational health and safety (OHS) regulation, and explores the differences and similarities between these concepts – the notion of ‘reasonably practicable’ which qualifies the ‘general duties’ and some other provisions in the Australian OHS standards, and the risk management requirements typically found in OHS regulations and approved codes of practice (advisory standards in Queensland).

Outsourcing risk -the regulation of occupational health and safety where subcontractors are employed

The subcontracting out of production tasks and services is not a new phenomenon, but from the late 1970s, and more especially over the last 15years, the practice-now frequently referred to as outsourcing-has grown substantially across a range of industries in most industrialized countries.Recent surveys undertaken in the United States,Europe,and Australia have all identified a rapid increase in outsourcing/subcontracting, especially amongst large private and public sector organizations. The Second Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey found that the number of contractors, agency workers, outworkers, and volunteers had increased by almost 40% in the last 5 years to 1997 with contracting out more common in the public sector than the private sector. Outsourcing has become a major tool by which large organizations have sought to increase competitiveness/cut costs, bypass regulatory controls, and secure more flexible employment arrangements.

OHS inspectors and psychosocial risk factors: Evidence from Australia

Legislation giving prominence to psychosocial risk factors at work has changed the role of government occupational health and safety (OHS) inspectors in many countries. Yet little is known about how inspectorates have responded to these changes. Between 2003 and 2007 an Australian study was undertaken on OHS standards, entailing detailed documentary analysis, interviews with 36 inspectorate managers and 89 inspectors, and observations made when researchers accompanied inspectors on 120 typical workplace visits. Our study found that general duty provisions in OHS legislation clearly incorporated psychosocial hazards and inspectorates had introduced guidance material, pursued campaigns and increased interventions in this area. However, the regulatory framework remained narrow (focused on bullying/harassment, occupational violence and work stress) and workplace visits revealed psychosocial hazards as a marginal area of inspectorate activity. These findings were reinforced in interviews. While aware of psychosocial hazards inspectors often saw the issue as problematic due to limited training, resourcing constraints, deficiencies in regulation and fears of victimisation amongst workers. In order to address these problems a number of changes are required that recognize the distinctiveness of psychosocial hazards including their ‘invisibility’. Notable here are revisions to regulation (both general duty provisions and specific codes), the development of comprehensive guidance and assessment tools to be used by inspectors, greater use of procedural enforcement, and enhanced inspectorate resourcing and training. There is also a need to recognize complex inter-linkages between psychosocial hazards and the industrial relations context.

Flood victim’s heartbreak : ‘don’t be complacent about the risk’

"No one had higher stakes in the findings of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry than Grantham father Matthew Keep, whose mother, mother-in-law and baby daughter, Jessica, died at Grantham that terrible day in January. For seven months he has read every statement, submission, running log, disaster management plan and media article available. As he has comforted his grieving wife, Stacy, helped care for his two young children Madison, 5, and Jacob, 4, who amazingly survived the flood, and welcomed a new baby into the family, Matthew has searched for answers for himself and his community. Why were authorities not able to warn people in seven towns in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley that the worst flash flooding in at least a century was about to strike, killing 22 people? How could such a sudden and catastrophic flood claim three members of his family within minutes?"

Predicting the likelihood of non-healing : a venous leg ulcer risk assessment tool

This project developed, validated and tested reliability of a risk assessment tool to predict the risk of failure to heal of patients with venous leg ulcers within 24 weeks. The risk assessment tool will allow clinicians to be able to determine realistic outcomes for their patients, promote early healing and potentially avoid weeks of inappropriate therapy. The tool will also assist in addressing specific risk factors and guide decisions on early, alternative, tailored interventions.

Gliptins - do they increase cardiovascular risk or benefit?

INTRODUCTION: In 2008, the US FDA required all new glucose-lowering therapies to show cardiovascular safety, and this applies to the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors ('gliptins'). AREAS COVERED: The cardiovascular safety trials of saxagliptin and alogliptin have recently been published and are the subject of this evaluation. EXPERT OPINION: The Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus - Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 trial and Examination of Cardiovascular Outcomes with Alogliptin versus Standard of Care were both multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, Phase IV clinical trials. These trials showed that saxagliptin and alogliptin did not increase the primary end point, which was a composite of cardiovascular outcomes that did not include hospitalisations for heart failure. However, saxagliptin significantly increased hospitalisation for heart failure, which was a component of the secondary end point. The effect of alogliptin on hospitalisations for heart failure has not been reported. Neither agent improved cardiovascular outcomes. As there is no published evidence of improved outcomes with gliptins, it is unclear to us why these agents are so widely available for use. We suggest that the use of gliptins be restricted to Phase IV clinical trials until such time as cardiovascular safety and benefits/superiority are clearly established

Prevalence of malnutrition, obesity and nutritional risk of Australian paediatric inpatients: A national one-day snapshot

Aim Low prevalence rates of malnutrition at 2.5% to 4% have previously been reported in two tertiary paediatric Australian hospitals. The current study is the first to measure the prevalence of malnutrition, obesity and nutritional risk of paediatric inpatients in multiple hospitals throughout Australia. Methods Malnutrition, obesity and nutritional risk prevalence were investigated in 832 and 570 paediatric inpatients, respectively, in eight tertiary paediatric hospitals and eight regional hospitals across Australia on a single day. Malnutrition and obesity prevalence was determined using z-scores and body mass index (BMI) percentiles. High nutritional risk was determined as a Paediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score of 2 or more. Results The prevalence rates of malnourished, wasted, stunted, overweight and obese paediatric patients were 15%, 13.8%, 11.9%, 8.8% and 9.9%, respectively. Patients who identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander were more likely to have lower height-for-age z-scores (P < 0.01); however, BMI and weight-for-age z-scores were not significantly different. Children who were younger, from regional hospitals or with a primary diagnosis of cardiac disease or cystic fibrosis had significantly lower anthropometric z-scores (P = 0.05). Forty-four per cent of patients were identified as at high nutritional risk and requiring further nutritional assessment. Conclusions The prevalence of malnutrition and nutritional risk of Australian paediatric inpatients on a given day was much higher when compared with the healthy population. In contrast, the proportion of overweight and obese patients was less.

Activity patterns of preschool-aged children at risk for obesity

BACKGROUND Although the prevalence of obesity in young children highlights the importance of early interventions to promote physical activity (PA), there are limited data on activity patterns in this age group. The purpose of this study is to describe activity patterns in preschool-aged children and explore differences by weight status. METHODS Analyses use baseline data from Healthy Homes/Healthy Kids- Preschool, a pilot obesity prevention trial of preschool-aged children overweight or at risk for overweight. A modified parent-reported version of the previous-day PA recall was used to summarize types of activity. Accelerometry was used to summarize daily and hourly activity patterns. RESULTS "Playing with toys" accounted for the largest proportion of a child's previous day, followed by "meals and snacks", and "chores". Accelerometry-measured daily time spent in sedentary behavior, light PA, and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) was 412, 247, and 69 minutes, respectively. Percent of hourly time spent in MVPA ranged from 3% to 13%, peaking in the late morning and evening hours. There were no statistically significant MVPA differences by weight status. CONCLUSIONS This study extends our understanding of activity types, amounts, and patterns in preschool-age children and warrants further exploration of differences in physical activity patterns by weight status.

Corporate governance and bankruptcy risk

We examine how firm characteristics, particularly the degree of firm complexity and the firm’s need for specialty knowledge, affect the relationship between corporate governance and the risk of bankruptcy. We find that having larger boards reduces the risk of bankruptcy only for complex firms. Our results also suggest that the proportion of inside directors on the board is inversely associated with the risk of bankruptcy in firms that require more specialist knowledge, and that the reverse is true in technically unsophisticated firms. The results further reveal that the additional explanatory power from corporate governance variables becomes stronger as the time to bankruptcy is increased, implying that although corporate governance variables are important predictors, governance changes are likely to be too late to save a firm on the verge of bankruptcy.

Youth off the Streets "Our Place, Walgett Youth and Young Families Project" Project Evaluation.

The Project: • YOTS is a major youth specific agency established in 1991. It is a non-denominational, non-discriminatory and not-for-profit organisation, providing a wide range of services and offering a full continuum of care. It seeks to build on the strengths and positive aspects of marginalised young people and communities. • The 'Our Place, Walgett Youth and Young Families Project' further develops an existing YOTS capacity to provide services to Aboriginal young people. • The project adopted an action-research and community development model in which YOTS worked in partnership with the Youth Sub-committee of the Walgett Interagency. • Specific goals/objectives of the program were to: Coordinate youth and young family activities in partnership with local services and the community to build self-esteem, pride, resilience, motivation and skills; Contribute to the prevention and reduction of homelessness, unstable and unsafe housing and disruptive mobility (Walgett/Redfern) in youth and young families; Increase and improve collaborative engagement between youth and family focused services; and, research, adapt and implement Australian and international best-practice homelessness prevention/reduction initiatives to contribute to new models of practice relevant to rural and regional areas. • The project centred around an out-reach model that focused on providing a safe space with relevant structured activities coordinated by YOTS youth and family workers. Through community and service provider consultation, it was proposed that local services could coordinate strategies and activities and run them, where possible, from the centre, providing ease of access in a safe and supportive context. • Specific activities included: Implementing regular meetings with the stakeholders and community representatives; Developing a Terms of Reference for YOTS presence in the Walgett community; Undertaking a community consultation prior to finalising program activities; Implementing a range of recreational activities (sports, music, arts and crafts) early on in the activity; Implementing young family support initiatives; implementing a volunteering program, including volunteer support to young families through intergenerational volunteering; running a series of Culture and Healing Camps in partnership with local Elders and other services; Running a series of Music Camps; Providing alternative education support and referrals in partnership with local schools; Researching, identifying and adapting other best-practice models.

Modes of criminal justice, indigenous youth and social democracy

The political question of how the will of a community is to be democratically formed and adhered to, the question of social democracy, is normatively tied to the mode of criminal justice employed within that democratic public sphere. Liberal, republican, procedural and communitarian forms of democratic will-formation respectively reflect retributive,restorative, procedural and co-operative modes of criminal justice. After first elaborating these links through the critical response of republican and procedural theories of democracy to the liberal practice of democratic will-formation and its retributive mode of justice, our discussion considers the recent practice of restorative and procedural justice with respect to Indigenous youth; and this in the context of a severely diminished role for Indigenous justice agencies in the public sphere. In light of certain shortcomings in both the restorative and procedural modes of justice, and so too with republican and procedural understandings of the democratic public sphere, we turn to a discussion of procedural communitarianism, anchored as it is in Dewey’s notion of social co-operation. From here we attempt a brief formulation of what a socially co-operative mode of justice might consist of; a mode of justice where historically racial and economically coercive injustices are sufficiently recognised.

Evaluation of Indigenous justice programs.: final report / Project D, Safe Aboriginal Youth Patrol Programs in New South Wales and Northbridge Policy and Juvenile Aid Group in Western Australia

The Australian Government has provided funding to evaluate the effectiveness of Indigenous law and justice programs across five subject areas to identify the best approaches to tackling crime and justice issues and better inform government funding decisions in the future. This report presents the findings of subject area "D", which examined two different approaches to delivering community and night patrol services for young people: the Safe Aboriginal Youth Patrol programs in New South Wales, and the Northbridge Policy project (the Young People in Northbridge project), in Western Australia. Night patrols can address crime either directly or indirectly, by prevention work or by addressing the social causes of crime through community development.