Prevalence of measured and reported multimorbidity in a representative sample of the Swiss population.

BACKGROUND: Little is known on the prevalence of multimorbidity (MM) in the general population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of MM using measured or self-reported data in the Swiss population. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, and including 3714 participants (1967 women) aged 35 to 75 years. Clinical evaluation was conducted by thoroughly trained nurses or medical assistants and the psychiatric evaluation by psychologists or psychiatrists. For psychiatric conditions, two definitions were used: either based on the participant's statements, or on psychiatric evaluation. MM was defined as presenting ≥2 morbidities out of a list of 27 (self-reported - definition A, or measured - definition B) or as the Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI) using measured data - definition C. RESULTS: The overall prevalence and (95% confidence interval) of MM was 34.8% (33.3%-36.4%), 56.3% (54.6%-57.9%) and 22.7% (21.4%-24.1%) for definitions A, B and C, respectively. Prevalence of MM was higher in women (40.2%, 61.7% and 27.1% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 28.7%, 50.1% and 17.9% in men, p < 0.001); Swiss nationals (37.1%, 58.8% and 24.8% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 31.4%, 52.3% and 19.7% in foreigners, all p < 0.001); elderly (>65 years: 67.0%, 70.0% and 36.7% for definitions A, B and C, respectively, vs. 23.6%, 50.2% and 13.8% for participants <45 years, p < 0.001); participants with lower educational level; former smokers and obese participants. Multivariate analysis confirmed most of these associations: odds ratio (95% Confidence interval) 0.55 (0.47-0.64), 0.61 (0.53-0.71) and 0.51 (0.42-0.61) for men relative to women for definitions A, B and C, respectively; 1.27 (1.09-1.49), 1.29 (1.11-1.49) and 1.41 (1.17-1.71) for Swiss nationals relative to foreigners, for definitions A, B and C, respectively. Conversely, no difference was found for educational level for definitions A and B and abdominally obese participants for all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of MM is high in the Lausanne population, and varies according to the definition or the data collection method.

USE OF SCALED SEMIVARIOGRAMS IN THE PLANNING SAMPLE OF SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES IN SOUTHERN AMAZONAS, BRAZIL

There is a great lack of information from soil surveys in the southern part of the State of Amazonas, Brazil. The use of tools such as geostatistics may improve environmental planning, use and management. In this study, we aimed to use scaled semivariograms in sample design of soil physical properties of some environments in Amazonas. We selected five areas located in the south of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, with varied soil uses, such as forest, archaeological dark earth (ADE), pasture, sugarcane cropping, and agroforestry. Regular mesh grids were set up in these areas with 64 sample points spaced at 10 m from each other. At these points, we determined the particle size composition, soil resistance to penetration, moisture, soil bulk density and particle density, macroporosity, microporosity, total porosity, and aggregate stability in water at a depth of 0.00-0.20 m. Descriptive and geostatistical analyses were performed. The sample density requirements were lower in the pasture area but higher in the forest. We concluded that managed-environments had differences in their soil physical properties compared to the natural forest; notably, the soil in the ADE environment is physically improved in relation to the others. The physical properties evaluated showed a structure of spatial dependence with a slight variability of the forest compared to the others. The use of the range parameter of the semivariogram analysis proved to be effective in determining an ideal sample density.

USE OF SCALED SEMIVARIOGRAMS IN THE PLANNING SAMPLE OF SOIL CHEMICAL PROPERTIES IN SOUTHERN AMAZONAS, BRAZIL

The lack of information concerning the variability of soil properties has been a major concern of researchers in the Amazon region. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial variability of soil chemical properties and determine minimal sampling density to characterize the variability of these properties in five environments located in the south of the State of Amazonas, Brazil. The five environments were archaeological dark earth (ADE), forest, pasture land, agroforestry operation, and sugarcane crop. Regular 70 × 70 m mesh grids were set up in these areas, with 64 sample points spaced at 10 m distance. Soil samples were collected at the 0.0-0.1 m depth. The chemical properties of pH in water, OM, P, K, Ca, Mg, H+Al, SB, CEC, and V were determined at these points. Data were analyzed by descriptive and geostatistical analyses. A large part of the data analyzed showed spatial dependence. Chemical properties were best fitted to the spherical model in almost all the environments evaluated, except for the sugarcane field with a better fit to the exponential model. ADE and sugarcane areas had greater heterogeneity of soil chemical properties, showing a greater range and higher sampling density; however, forest and agroforestry areas had less variability of chemical properties.

Exact solution to the mean exit time problem for free inertial processes driven by Gaussian white noise

We obtain the exact analytical expression, up to a quadrature, for the mean exit time, T(x,v), of a free inertial process driven by Gaussian white noise from a region (0,L) in space. We obtain a completely explicit expression for T(x,0) and discuss the dependence of T(x,v) as a function of the size L of the region. We develop a new method that may be used to solve other exit time problems.

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

Blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol targets for prevention of recurrent strokes and cognitive decline in the hypertensive patient: design of the European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment randomized trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The SBP values to be achieved by antihypertensive therapy in order to maximize reduction of cardiovascular outcomes are unknown; neither is it clear whether in patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the optimal values are lower than in the low-to-moderate risk hypertensive patients, or a more cautious blood pressure (BP) reduction should be obtained. Because of the uncertainty whether 'the lower the better' or the 'J-curve' hypothesis is correct, the European Society of Hypertension and the Chinese Hypertension League have promoted a randomized trial comparing antihypertensive treatment strategies aiming at three different SBP targets in hypertensive patients with a recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack. As the optimal level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level is also unknown in these patients, LDL-C-lowering has been included in the design. PROTOCOL DESIGN: The European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial is a prospective multinational, randomized trial with a 3 × 2 factorial design comparing: three different SBP targets (1, <145-135; 2, <135-125; 3, <125 mmHg); two different LDL-C targets (target A, 2.8-1.8; target B, <1.8 mmol/l). The trial is to be conducted on 7500 patients aged at least 65 years (2500 in Europe, 5000 in China) with hypertension and a stroke or transient ischaemic attack 1-6 months before randomization. Antihypertensive and statin treatments will be initiated or modified using suitable registered agents chosen by the investigators, in order to maintain patients within the randomized SBP and LDL-C windows. All patients will be followed up every 3 months for BP and every 6 months for LDL-C. Ambulatory BP will be measured yearly. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome is time to stroke (fatal and non-fatal). Important secondary outcomes are: time to first major cardiovascular event; cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and dementia. All major outcomes will be adjudicated by committees blind to randomized allocation. A Data and Safety Monitoring Board has open access to data and can recommend trial interruption for safety. SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION: It has been calculated that 925 patients would reach the primary outcome after a mean 4-year follow-up, and this should provide at least 80% power to detect a 25% stroke difference between SBP targets and a 20% difference between LDL-C targets.

Étude exploratoire de la stabilité à long terme des indices standard du WISC-IV

Par le biais d'une procédure Test-Retest, la stabilité à long terme des indices standard du WISC-IV français a été évaluée. L'intervalle moyen entre les deux passations est de 2,33 ans. L'échantillon comprend 96 enfants « tout venant » âgés de huit à 12 ans. Les comparaisons entre les moyennes des deux passations ne montrent pas de différence significative pour indice de compréhension verbale (ICV), indice de raisonnement perceptif (IRP), indice de mémoire de travail (IMT), indice d'aptitude générale (IAG) et QIT. Au niveau interindividuel, les coefficients de corrélations témoignent d'une bonne stabilité à long terme pour ICV, IAG et QIT (allant de 0,81 à 0,82). Une analyse des différences de performances entre les deux passations indique une stabilité intra-individuelle satisfaisante pour IMT et IAG. Seul IAG présente donc une stabilité à long terme satisfaisante au niveau inter- et intra-individuel. By a Test-Retest procedure, this study explores the long-term stability of the French WISC-IV index scores. The average Test-Retest interval was 2.33 years. The sample consisted of 96 non-clinical children aged between 8 and 12 years. Mean difference between the two testings was not statistically significant for VCI, PRI, WMI, GAI and FSIQ. Test-Retest reliability correlations between the two assessments are high for VCI, GAI and FSIQ (ranging from .81 to .82). An analysis of the performance differences between two assessments indicates intra-individual stability for WMI and GAI. In sum, only GAI demonstrates reliable long-term stability at an inter-and intra-individual level.

Mean first-passage times for systems driven by gamma and McFadden dichotomous noise

We consider mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for systems driven by non-Markov gamma and McFadden dichotomous noises. A simplified derivation is given of the underlying integral equations and the theory for ordinary renewal processes is extended to modified and equilibrium renewal processes. The exact results are compared with the MFPT for Markov dichotomous noise and with the results of Monte Carlo simulations.

Mean first-passage times for systems driven by equilibrium persistent-periodic dichotomous noise

In a recent paper, [J. M. Porrà, J. Masoliver, and K. Lindenberg, Phys. Rev. E 48, 951 (1993)], we derived the equations for the mean first-passage time for systems driven by the coin-toss square wave, a particular type of dichotomous noisy signal, to reach either one of two boundaries. The coin-toss square wave, which we here call periodic-persistent dichotomous noise, is a random signal that can only change its value at specified time points, where it changes its value with probability q or retains its previous value with probability p=1-q. These time points occur periodically at time intervals t. Here we consider the stationary version of this signal, that is, equilibrium periodic-persistent noise. We show that the mean first-passage time for systems driven by this stationary noise does not show either the discontinuities or the oscillations found in the case of nonstationary noise. We also discuss the existence of discontinuities in the mean first-passage time for random one-dimensional stochastic maps.

Can Soil Penetration Resistance and Bulk Density Be Determined in a Single Undisturbed Sample?

Soil quality indicators such as penetration resistance (PR) and bulk density (BD) are traditionally determined in a single undisturbed soil sample. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of PR measurements of undisturbed samples on the determination of BD in the same sample of two soils differing in clay contents. To this end, samples were collected from the 0.00-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m layers of two soils of clayey and very clayey texture. Volumetric rings were used to collect a total of 120 undisturbed soil samples from each soil layer that were divided into two subsets containing 60 units each. One sample set, designated “perforated samples”, was used to determine PR and BD in the same undisturbed sample; the other, named “intact samples”, was used to determine BD only. Bulk density values for perforated and intact samples were compared by analysis of variance, using a completely randomized experimental design. Means were compared by the t-test at 5 %. The BD values for the clayey soil were similar in perforated and intact samples from the two layers. However, BD of the very clayey soil was lower in the perforated than in the intact samples at both depths. Therefore, PR and BD in clayey soils can be accurately determined in the same undisturbed sample whereas in very clayey soils, different samples are required for this purpose.

Mean first-passage time for system driven by the coin-toss square wave

We study the mean-first-passage-time problem for systems driven by the coin-toss square-wave signal. Exact analytic solutions are obtained for the driftless case. We also obtain approximate solutions for the potential case. The mean-first-passage time exhibits discontinuities and a remarkable nonsmooth oscillatory behavior which, to our knowledge, has not been observed for other kinds of driving noise.

Design, data management, and population baseline characteristics of the PERFORM magnetic resonance imaging project.

Quantitative information from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may substantiate clinical findings and provide additional insight into the mechanism of clinical interventions in therapeutic stroke trials. The PERFORM study is exploring the efficacy of terutroban versus aspirin for secondary prevention in patients with a history of ischemic stroke. We report on the design of an exploratory longitudinal MRI follow-up study that was performed in a subgroup of the PERFORM trial. An international multi-centre longitudinal follow-up MRI study was designed for different MR systems employing safety and efficacy readouts: new T2 lesions, new DWI lesions, whole brain volume change, hippocampal volume change, changes in tissue microstructure as depicted by mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy, vessel patency on MR angiography, and the presence of and development of new microbleeds. A total of 1,056 patients (men and women ≥ 55 years) were included. The data analysis included 3D reformation, image registration of different contrasts, tissue segmentation, and automated lesion detection. This large international multi-centre study demonstrates how new MRI readouts can be used to provide key information on the evolution of cerebral tissue lesions and within the macrovasculature after atherothrombotic stroke in a large sample of patients.

Role of hepatitis C virus genotype 3 in liver fibrosis progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The progression of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C has long been considered to be independent from viral genotypes. However, recent studies suggest an association between Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 and accelerated liver disease progression. We completed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies evaluating the association between HCV genotypes and fibrosis progression. PubMed, Embase and ISI Web of Knowledge databases were searched for cohort, cross-sectional and case-control studies on treatment-naïve HCV-infected adults in which liver fibrosis progression rate (FPR) was assessed by the ratio of fibrosis stage in one single biopsy to the duration of infection (single-biopsy studies) or from the change in fibrosis stage between two biopsies (paired biopsies studies). A random effect model was used to derive FPR among different HCV genotypes. Eight single-biopsy studies (3182 patients, mean/median duration of infection ranging from 9 to 21 years) and eight paired biopsies studies (mean interval between biopsies 2-12 years) met the selection criteria. The odds ratio for the association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis progression was 1.52 (95% CI 1.12-2.07, P = 0.007) in single-biopsy studies and 1.37 (95% CI 0.87-2.17, P = 0.17) in paired biopsy studies. In conclusion, viral genotype 3 was associated with faster fibrosis progression in single-biopsy studies. This observation may have important consequences on the clinical management of genotype 3-infected patients. The association was not significant in paired biopsies studies, although the latter may be limited by important indication bias, short observation time and small sample size.

Quantum critical effects in mean-field glassy systems

We consider the effects of quantum fluctuations in mean-field quantum spin-glass models with pairwise interactions. We examine the nature of the quantum glass transition at zero temperature in a transverse field. In models (such as the random orthogonal model) where the classical phase transition is discontinuous an analysis using the static approximation reveals that the transition becomes continuous at zero temperature.