New record of Pterotaenia fasciata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Ulidiidae) in Brazil, a probably mechanical vector of enteric bacteria

Pterotaenia fasciata is commonly recorded in rural areas in Argentina, but during a Diptera survey study developed in a reservoir which retains storm water from polluted canals in an urban area of Taboão da Serra municipality, SP, Brazil, we could capture P. fasciata adults. Enteric bacteria Escherichia coli T. Escherich, 1885 and Proteus sp. were isolated from P. fasciata collected in traps inside the reservoir and around it. Fecal coliforms and E. coli were found in the water of the reservoir. These records suggest that a high abundance of this species at urban areas with inadequate sewage canals should reveal these muscoid dipterans as mechanical vectors of enteric bacteria.

A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium

We propose a simple adaptive procedure for playing a game. In thisprocedure, players depart from their current play with probabilities thatare proportional to measures of regret for not having used other strategies(these measures are updated every period). It is shown that our adaptiveprocedure guaranties that with probability one, the sample distributionsof play converge to the set of correlated equilibria of the game. Tocompute these regret measures, a player needs to know his payoff functionand the history of play. We also offer a variation where every playerknows only his own realized payoff history (but not his payoff function).

Enforcement problems and secondary markets

There is a large and growing literature that studies the effects of weak enforcement institutions on economic performance. This literature has focused almost exclusively on primary markets, in which assets are issued and traded to improve the allocation of investment and consumption. The general conclusion is that weak enforcement institutions impair the workings of these markets, giving rise to various inefficiencies.But weak enforcement institutions also create incentives to develop secondary markets, in which the assets issued in primary markets are retraded. This paper shows that trading in secondary markets counteracts the effects of weak enforcement institutions and, in the absence of further frictions, restores efficiency.

On certain greedoid polyhedra, partially indexable scheduling problems and extended restless bandit allocation indices

We present a polyhedral framework for establishing general structural properties on optimal solutions of stochastic scheduling problems, where multiple job classes vie for service resources: the existence of an optimal priority policy in a given family, characterized by a greedoid(whose feasible class subsets may receive higher priority), where optimal priorities are determined by class-ranking indices, under restricted linear performance objectives (partial indexability). This framework extends that of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996), which explained the optimality of priority-index policies under all linear objectives (general indexability). We show that, if performance measures satisfy partial conservation laws (with respect to the greedoid), which extend previous generalized conservation laws, then theproblem admits a strong LP relaxation over a so-called extended greedoid polytope, which has strong structural and algorithmic properties. We present an adaptive-greedy algorithm (which extends Klimov's) taking as input the linear objective coefficients, which (1) determines whether the optimal LP solution is achievable by a policy in the given family; and (2) if so, computes a set of class-ranking indices that characterize optimal priority policies in the family. In the special case of project scheduling, we show that, under additional conditions, the optimal indices can be computed separately for each project (index decomposition). We further apply the framework to the important restless bandit model (two-action Markov decision chains), obtaining new index policies, that extend Whittle's (1988), and simple sufficient conditions for their validity. These results highlight the power of polyhedral methods (the so-called achievable region approach) in dynamic and stochastic optimization.

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Adverse selection, credit and efficiency: The case of the missing market

We analyze a standard environment of adverse selection in credit markets. In our environment,entrepreneurs who are privately informed about the quality of their projects needto borrow in order to invest. Conventional wisdom says that, in this class of economies, thecompetitive equilibrium is typically inefficient.We show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption: entrepreneurscan only access monitored lending. If a new set of markets is added to provide entrepreneurswith additional funds, efficiency can be attained in equilibrium. An important characteristic ofthese additional markets is that lending in them must be unmonitored, in the sense that it doesnot condition total borrowing or investment by entrepreneurs. This makes it possible to attainefficiency by pooling all entrepreneurs in the new markets while separating them in the marketsfor monitored loans.

Solving higher-dimensional continuous time stochastic control problems by value function regression

The paper develops a method to solve higher-dimensional stochasticcontrol problems in continuous time. A finite difference typeapproximation scheme is used on a coarse grid of low discrepancypoints, while the value function at intermediate points is obtainedby regression. The stability properties of the method are discussed,and applications are given to test problems of up to 10 dimensions.Accurate solutions to these problems can be obtained on a personalcomputer.

Skin problems associated with pegylated liposomal doxorubicin-more than palmoplantar erythrodysesthesia syndrome.

Liposomal pegylated doxorubicin is an encapsulation form of doxorubicin, with an improved pharmacokinetic profile and the ability to selectively accumulate into tumor tissue. As a result, the tolerated dose of the drug can be increased, followed by a reduced incidence of neutropenia and cardiotoxicity in comparison to doxorubucin treatment. However, a common adverse dose-schedule limiting effect of the treatment is palmoplantar erythrodysesthesia syndrome. In this retrospective study we included six patients hospitalised in the University Hospital of Zurich during the last 2 years, in connection with side effects caused by pegylated liposomal doxorubicin. These patients received this chemotherapeutic agent for treatment of various malignancies such as breast cancer, ovarian cancer, mycosis fungoides and cutaneous B-cell lymphoma. Three of six patients in this study developed classical palmoplantar erythrodysesthesia, one developed palmoplantar erythrodysesthesia associated with extensive bullous disease, one developed eruption of lymphocyte recovery syndrome and one developed intertrigo like dermatitis with stomatitis. Pegylated liposomal doxorubicin induces various skin reactions including palmoplantar erythrodysesthesia syndrome. However, the exact clinical presentation might depend on pre-existing skin diseases.

Vector competence of Culex quinquefasciatus Say, 1823 exposed to different densities of microfilariae of Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy, 1856)

The metropolitan region of Recife, Brazil is endemic for Dirofilaria immitis and has an environment favorable to the development of Culex quinquefasciatus. The goal of this study was to evaluate the vector competence of the Cx. quinquefasciatus RECIFE population for D. immitis transmission. A total of 2,104 females of Cx. quinquefasciatus RECIFE population were exposed to different densities of D. immitis microfilariae blood meals, ranging from 1,820 to 2,900 mf/ml of blood, in a natural membrane apparatus. The results showed a variation between 92.3% and 98.8% of females fed. The exposure of the Cx. quinquefasciatus RECIFE population to different densities of microfilariae did not influence the mortality of the mosquitoes. Infective larvae from D. immitis were observed in the Malpighian tubules beginning on the 12th day, whereas larvae were observed in the head and proboscis beginning on the 13th day following infection. The vector efficiency index (VEI) presented by the mosquitoes ranged from 7.8 to 56.5. The data demonstrates that the Cx. quinquefasciatus RECIFE population has great potential for the transmission of D. immitis, as it allowed the development of the filarid until the infectious stage at the different densities of microfilariae to which it was exposed.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

Aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability

We study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts. Because of enforceability problems, contracts are constrained efficient. We show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output. More generally, we show that lower enforceability of contracts will be associated with greater aggregate volatility. A key assumption for this result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).