Controlling market power of vertically integrated firms in electricity networks: demand response of aggregator agents

This article reports the results of an experiment that examined how demand aggregators can discipline vertically-integrated firms - generator and distributor-retailer holdings-, which have a high share in wholesale electricity market with uniform price double auction (UPDA). We initially develop a treatment where holding members redistribute the profit based on the imposition of supra-competitive prices, in equal proportions (50%-50%). Subsequently, we introduce a vertical disintegration (unbundling) treatment with holding-s information sharing, where profits are distributed according to market outcomes. Finally, a third treatment is performed to introduce two active demand aggregators, with flexible interruptible loads in real time. We found that the introduction of responsive demand aggregators neutralizes the power market and increases market efficiency, even beyond what is achieved through vertical disintegration.

The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

The oscillatory bioelectrical signal from plants explained by a simulated electrical model and tested using Lempel-Ziv complexity

This paper demonstrates the oscillatory characteristics of electrical signals acquired from two ornamental plant types (Epipremnum pinnatum and Philodendron scandens - Family Araceae), using a noninvasive acquisition system. The electrical signal was recorded using Ag/AgCl superficial electrodes inside a Faraday cage. The presence of the oscillatory electric generator was shown using a classical power spectral density. The Lempel and Ziv complexity measurement showed that the plant signal was not noise despite its nonlinear behavior. The oscillatory characteristics of the signal were explained using a simulated electrical model that establishes that for a frequency range from 5 to 15 Hz, the oscillatory characteristic is higher than for other frequency ranges. All results show that non-invasive electrical plant signals can be acquired with improvement of signal-to-noise ratio using a Faraday cage, and a simple electrical model is able to explain the electrical signal being generated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Locomotion patterns in two South American gymnophthalmid lizards: Vanzosaura rubricauda and Procellosaurinus tetradactylus

We quantified gait and stride characteristics (velocity, frequency, stride length, stance and swing duration, and duty factor) in the bursts of locomotion of two small, intermittently moving, closely related South American gymnophthalmid lizards: Vanzosaura rubricauda and Procellosaurinus tetradactylus. They occur in different environments: V rubricauda is widely distributed in open areas with various habitats and substrates, while P. tetradactylus is endemic to dunes in the semi-arid Brazilian Caatinga. Both use trot or walking trot characterised by a lateral sequence. For various substrates in a gradient of roughness (perspex, cardboard, sand, gravel), both species have low relative velocities in comparison with those reported for larger continuously moving lizards. To generate velocity, these animals increase stride frequency but decrease relative stride length. For these parameters, P. tetradactylus showed lower values than V rubricauda. In their relative range of velocities, no significant differences in stride length and frequency were recorded for gravel. However, the slopes of a correlation between velocity and its components were lower in P. tetradactylus on cardboard, whereas on sand this was only observed for velocity and stride length. The data showed that the difference in rhythmic parameters between both species increased with the smoothness of the substrates. Moreover, P. tetradactylus shows a highly specialised locomotor strategy involving lower stride length and frequency for generating lower velocities than in V. rubricauda. This suggests the evolution of a central motor pattern generator to control slower limb movements and to produce fewer and longer pauses in intermittent locomotion. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A transformational language for mutant description

Mutation testing has been used to assess the quality of test case suites by analyzing the ability in distinguishing the artifact under testing from a set of alternative artifacts, the so-called mutants. The mutants are generated from the artifact under testing by applying a set of mutant operators, which produce artifacts with simple syntactical differences. The mutant operators are usually based on typical errors that occur during the software development and can be related to a fault model. In this paper, we propose a language-named MuDeL (MUtant DEfinition Language)-for the definition of mutant operators, aiming not only at automating the mutant generation, but also at providing precision and formality to the operator definition. The proposed language is based on concepts from transformational and logical programming paradigms, as well as from context-free grammar theory. Denotational semantics formal framework is employed to define the semantics of the MuDeL language. We also describe a system-named mudelgen-developed to support the use of this language. An executable representation of the denotational semantics of the language is used to check the correctness of the implementation of mudelgen. At the very end, a mutant generator module is produced, which can be incorporated into a specific mutant tool/environment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FAST, PARALLEL AND SECURE CRYPTOGRAPHY ALGORITHM USING LORENZ`S ATTRACTOR

A novel cryptography method based on the Lorenz`s attractor chaotic system is presented. The proposed algorithm is secure and fast, making it practical for general use. We introduce the chaotic operation mode, which provides an interaction among the password, message and a chaotic system. It ensures that the algorithm yields a secure codification, even if the nature of the chaotic system is known. The algorithm has been implemented in two versions: one sequential and slow and the other, parallel and fast. Our algorithm assures the integrity of the ciphertext (we know if it has been altered, which is not assured by traditional algorithms) and consequently its authenticity. Numerical experiments are presented, discussed and show the behavior of the method in terms of security and performance. The fast version of the algorithm has a performance comparable to AES, a popular cryptography program used commercially nowadays, but it is more secure, which makes it immediately suitable for general purpose cryptography applications. An internet page has been set up, which enables the readers to test the algorithm and also to try to break into the cipher.

VSImG: A high frame rate bitmap based display system for neuroscience research

This paper describes a visual stimulus generator (VSImG) capable of displaying a gray-scale, 256 x 256 x 8 bitmap image with a frame rate of 500 Hz using a boustrophedonic scanning technique. It is designed for experiments with motion-sensitive neurons of the fly`s visual system, where the flicker fusion frequency of the photoreceptors can reach up to 500 Hz. Devices with such a high frame rate are not commercially available, but are required, if sensory systems with high flicker fusion frequency are to be studied. The implemented hardware approach gives us complete real-time control of the displacement sequence and provides all the signals needed to drive an electrostatic deflection display. With the use of analog signals, very small high-resolution displacements, not limited by the image`s pixel size can be obtained. Very slow image displacements with visually imperceptible steps can also be generated. This can be of interest for other vision research experiments. Two different stimulus files can be used simultaneously, allowing the system to generate X-Y displacements on one display or independent movements on two displays as long as they share the same bitmap image. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random number generators for the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution pertains to a class of lifetime models including both lighter and heavier tailed distributions. This model adapts well to lifetime data, even when outliers exist, and has other good theoretical properties and application perspectives. However, statistical inference tools may not exist in closed form for this model. Hence, simulation and numerical studies are needed, which require a random number generator. Three different ways to generate observations from this model are considered here. These generators are compared by utilizing a goodness-of-fit procedure as well as their effectiveness in predicting the true parameter values by using Monte Carlo simulations. This goodness-of-fit procedure may also be used as an estimation method. The quality of this estimation method is studied here. Finally, through a real data set, the generalized and classical Birnbaum-Saunders models are compared by using this estimation method.

Skew-symmetric identities of octonions

Quadratic alternative superalgebras are introduced and their super-identities and central functions on one odd generator are described. As a corollary, all multilinear skew-symmetric identities and central polynomials of octonions are classified. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodritin microencapsulated human islets of langerhans and their potential for type 1 diabetes mellitus therapy

Background. Microencapsulation of pancreatic islets with polymeric compounds constitutes an attractive alternative therapy for type 1 diabetes mellitus. The major limiting factor is the availability of a biocompatible and mechanically stable polymer. We investigated the potential of Biodritin, a novel polymer constituted of alginate and chondroitin sulfate, for islet microencapsulation. Methods. Biodritin microcapsules were obtained using an air jet droplet generator and gelated with barium or calcium chloride. Microencapsulated rat insulinoma RINm5F cells were tested for viability using the [3-(4,5-dimetyl-thiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyl-tetrazoliumbromide] [MTT] colorimetric assay. Microencapsulated rat pancreatic islets were coincubated with macrophages derived from mouse peritoneal liquid to assess the immunomodulatory potential of the microcapsules, using quantitative real time-PCR (qPCR). Biodritin biocompatibility was demonstrated by subcutaneous injection of empty microcapsules into immunocompetent Wistar rats. Insulin secretion by microencapsulated human pancreatic islets was evaluated using an electrochemoluminescent assay. Microencapsulated human islets transplanted into chemically induced diabetic mice were monitored for reversal of hyperglycemia. Results. The metabolic activity of microencapsulated RINm5F cells persisted for at least 15 days. Interleukin-1 beta expression by macrophages was observed during coculture with islets microencapsulated with Biodritin-CaCl2, but not with Biodritin-BaCl2. No statistical difference in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion was observed between nonencapsulated and microencapsulated islets. Upon microencapsulated islet transplantation, the blood glucose level of diabetic mice normalized; they remained euglycemic for at least 60 days, displaying normal oral glucose tolerance tests. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that Biodritin can be used for islet microencapsulation and reversal of diabetes; however, further investigations are required to assess its potential for long-term transplantation.

Versatile microanalytical system with porous polypropylene capillary membrane for calibration gas generation and trace gaseous pollutants sampling applied to the analysis of formaldehyde, formic acid, acetic acid and ammonia in outdoor air

The analytical determination of atmospheric pollutants still presents challenges due to the low-level concentrations (frequently in the mu g m(-3) range) and their variations with sampling site and time In this work a capillary membrane diffusion scrubber (CMDS) was scaled down to match with capillary electrophoresis (CE) a quick separation technique that requires nothing more than some nanoliters of sample and when combined with capacitively coupled contactless conductometric detection (C(4)D) is particularly favorable for ionic species that do not absorb in the UV-vis region like the target analytes formaldehyde formic acid acetic acid and ammonium The CMDS was coaxially assembled inside a PTFE tube and fed with acceptor phase (deionized water for species with a high Henry s constant such as formaldehyde and carboxylic acids or acidic solution for ammonia sampling with equilibrium displacement to the non-volatile ammonium ion) at a low flow rate (8 3 nLs(-1)) while the sample was aspirated through the annular gap of the concentric tubes at 25 mLs(-1) A second unit in all similar to the CMDS was operated as a capillary membrane diffusion emitter (CMDE) generating a gas flow with know concentrations of ammonia for the evaluation of the CMDS The fluids of the system were driven with inexpensive aquarium air pumps and the collected samples were stored in vials cooled by a Peltier element Complete protocols were developed for the analysis in air of NH(3) CH(3)COOH HCOOH and with a derivatization setup CH(2)O by associating the CMDS collection with the determination by CE-C(4)D The ammonia concentrations obtained by electrophoresis were checked against the reference spectrophotometric method based on Berthelot s reaction Sensitivity enhancements of this reference method were achieved by using a modified Berthelot reaction solenoid micro-pumps for liquid propulsion and a long optical path cell based on a liquid core waveguide (LCW) All techniques and methods of this work are in line with the green analytical chemistry trends (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

New Improvements in Automatic Structure Elucidation Using the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and the SISTEMAT Expert Systems

This article describes the integration of the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and SISTEMAT expert systems that were both designed for the computer-assisted structure elucidation of small organic molecules. A first step has been achieved towards the linking of the SISTEMAT database with the LSD structure generator. The skeletal descriptions found by the SISTEMAT programs are now easily transferred to LSD as substructural constraints. Examples of the synergy between these expert systems are given for recently reported natural products.

A compact and high-resolution version of a capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detector

An all-in-one version of a capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detector is introduced. The absence of moving parts (potentiometers and connectors) makes it compact (6.5 cm(3)) and robust. A local oscillator, working at 1.1 MHz, was optimized to use capillaries of id from 20 to 100 lam. Low noise circuitry and a high-resolution analog-to-digital converter (ADC) (21 bits effective) grant good sensitivities for capillaries and background electrolytes currently used in capillary electrophoresis. The fixed frequency and amplitude of the signal generator is a drawback that is compensated by the steady calibration curves for conductivity. Another advantage is the possibility of determining the inner diameter of a capillary by reading the ADC when air and subsequently water flow through the capillary. The difference of ADC reading may be converted into the inner diameter by a calibration curve. This feature is granted by the 21-bit ADC, which eliminates the necessity of baseline compensation by hardware. In a typical application, the limits of detection based on the 3 sigma criterion (without baseline filtering) were 0.6, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 0.6, and 0.8 mu mol/L for K(+), Ba(2+), Ca(2+), Na(+), Mg(2+), and Li(+), respectively, which is comparable to other high-quality implementations of a capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detector.

Computer-Assisted Approach to Structural Elucidation of Lignans

This paper reports an expert system (SISTEMAT) developed for structural determination of diverse chemical classes of natural products, including lignans, based mainly on 13C NMR and 1H NMR data of these compounds. The system is composed of five programs that analyze specific data of a lignan and shows a skeleton probability for the compound. At the end of analyses, the results are grouped, the global probability is computed, and the most probable skeleton is exhibited to the user. SISTEMAT was able to properly predict the skeletons of 80% of the 30 lignans tested, demonstrating its advantage during the structural elucidation course in a short period of time.