973 resultados para internal models


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This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

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AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

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This paper presents an effective classification method based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) in the context of activity recognition. Local features that capture both spatial and temporal information in activity videos have made significant progress recently. Efficient and effective features, feature representation and classification plays a crucial role in activity recognition. For classification, SVMs are popularly used because of their simplicity and efficiency; however the common multi-class SVM approaches applied suffer from limitations including having easily confused classes and been computationally inefficient. We propose using a binary tree SVM to address the shortcomings of multi-class SVMs in activity recognition. We proposed constructing a binary tree using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), where activities are repeatedly allocated to subnodes until every new created node contains only one activity. Then, for each internal node a separate SVM is learned to classify activities, which significantly reduces the training time and increases the speed of testing compared to popular the `one-against-the-rest' multi-class SVM classifier. Experiments carried out on the challenging and complex Hollywood dataset demonstrates comparable performance over the baseline bag-of-features method.

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Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

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Minimum Description Length (MDL) is an information-theoretic principle that can be used for model selection and other statistical inference tasks. There are various ways to use the principle in practice. One theoretically valid way is to use the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) criterion. Due to computational difficulties, this approach has not been used very often. This thesis presents efficient floating-point algorithms that make it possible to compute the NML for multinomial, Naive Bayes and Bayesian forest models. None of the presented algorithms rely on asymptotic analysis and with the first two model classes we also discuss how to compute exact rational number solutions.

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Corporate governance mandates and listing rules identify internal audit functions (IAF) as a central internal control mechanism. External audits are expected to assess the quality of IAF before placing reliance on its work. We provide evidence on the effect of IAF quality and IAF contribution to external audit on audit fees. Using data from a matched survey of both external and internal audits, we extend prior research which is based mainly on internal audits' assessment and conducted predominantly in highly developed markets. We find a positive relationship between IAF quality and audit fees as well as a reduction in audit fees as a result of external auditors' reliance on IAF. The interaction between IAF quality and IAF contribution to external audit suggests that high quality IAF induces greater external auditor reliance on internal auditors' work and thus result in lower external audit fees.

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This thesis examines the right to self-determination which is a norm used for numerous purposes by multiple actors in the field of international relations, with relatively little clarity or agreement on the actual and potential meaning of the right. In international practice, however, the main focus in applying the right has been in the context of decolonization as set by the United Nations in its early decades. Thus, in Africa the right to self-determination has traditionally implied that the colonial territories, and particularly the populations within these territories, were to constitute the people who were entitled to the right. That is, self-determination by decolonization provided a framework for the construction of independent nation-states in Africa whilst other dimensions of the right remained largely or totally neglected. With the objective of assessing the scope, content, developments and interpretations of the right to self-determination in Africa, particularly with regard to the relevance of the right today, the thesis proceeds on two fundamental hypotheses. The first is that Mervyn Frost s theory of settled norms, among which he lists the right to self-determination, assumes too much. Even if the right to self-determination is a human right belonging to all peoples stipulated, inter alia, in the first Article of the 1966 International Human Rights Covenants, it is a highly politicized and context-bound right instead of being settled and observed in a way that its denial would need special justification. Still, the suggested inconsistency or non-compliance with the norm of self-determination is not intended to prove the uselessness or inappropriateness of the norm, but, on the contrary, to invite and encourage debate on the potential use and coverage of the right to self-determination. The second hypothesis is that within the concept of self-determination there are two normative dimensions. One is to do with the idea and practice of statehood, the nation and collectivity that may decide to conduct itself as an independent state. The other one is to do with self-determination as a human right, as a normative condition, to be enjoyed by people and peoples within states that supersedes state authority. These external and internal dimensions need to be seen as complementary and co-terminous, not as mutually exclusive alternatives. The thesis proceeds on the assumption that the internal dimension of the right, with human rights and democracy at its core, has not been considered as important as the external. In turn, this unbalanced and selective interpretation has managed to put the true normative purpose of the right making the world better and bringing more just polity models into a somewhat peculiar light. The right to self-determination in the African context is assessed through case studies of Western Sahara, Southern Sudan and Eritrea. The study asks what these cases say about the right to self-determination in Africa and what their lessons learnt could contribute to the understanding and relevance of the right in today s Africa. The study demonstrates that even in the context of decolonization, the application of the right to self-determination has been far from the consistent approach supposedly followed by the international community: in many respects similar colonial histories have easily led to rather different destinies. While Eritrea secured internationally recognized right to self-determination in the form of retroactive independence in 1993, international recognition of distinct Western Sahara and Southern Sudan entities is contingent on complex and problematic conditions being satisfied. Overall, it is a considerable challenge for international legality to meet empirical political reality in a meaningful way, so that the universal values attached to the norm of self-determination are not overlooked or compromised but rather reinforced in the process of implementing the right. Consequently, this thesis seeks a more comprehensive understanding of the right to self-determination with particular reference to post-colonial Africa and with an emphasis on the internal, human rights and democracy dimensions of the norm. It is considered that the right to self-determination cannot be perceived only as an inter-state issue as it is also very much an intra-state issue, including the possibility of different sub-state arrangements exercised under the right, for example, in the form of autonomy. At the same time, the option of independent statehood achieved through secession remains a mode of exercising and part of the right to self-determination. But in whatever form or way applied, the right to self-determination, as a normative instrument, should constitute and work as a norm that comprehensively brings more added value in terms of the objectives of human rights and democracy. From a normative perspective, a peoples right should not be allowed to transform and convert itself into a right of states. Finally, in light of the case studies of Western Sahara, Southern Sudan and Eritrea, the thesis suggests that our understanding of the right to self-determination should now reach beyond the post-colonial context in Africa. It appears that both the questions and answers to the most pertinent issues of self-determination in the cases studied must be increasingly sought within the postcolonial African state rather than solely in colonial history. In this vein, the right to self-determination can be seen not only as a tool for creating states but also as a way to transform the state itself from within. Any such genuinely post-colonial approach may imply a judicious reconsideration, adaptation or up-dating of the right and our understanding of it in order to render it meaningful in Africa today.

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The availability of a small fleet of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot combination is modeled and studied. First, a deterministic flow model relates parameters of interest and represents the state-of-the art in the planning of such systems. Second, a cyclic queue model shows the effect of the principal uncertainties in operation and repair and shows the consequent decrease in the availability of aircraft at the flying-base. Several options such as increasing fleet size, investments in additional repair facilities, or building reliability and maintainability into the individual aircraft during its life-cycle are open for increasing the availability. A life-cycle cost criterion brings out some of these features. Numerical results confirm Rose's prediction that there exists a minimal cost combination of end products and repair-depot capability to achieve a prescribed operational availability.

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In a very recent study [1] the Renormalisation Group (RNG) turbulence model was used to obtain flow predictions in a strongly swirling quarl burner, and was found to perform well in predicting certain features that are not well captured using less sophisticated models of turbulence. The implication is that the RNG approach should provide an economical and reliable tool for the prediction of swirling flows in combustor and furnace geometries commonly encountered in technological applications. To test this hypothesis the present work considers flow in a model furnace for which experimental data is available [2]. The essential features of the flow which differentiate it from the previous study [1] are that the annular air jet entry is relatively narrow and the base wall of the cylindrical furnace is at 90 degrees to the inlet pipe. For swirl numbers of order 1 the resulting flow is highly complex with significant inner and outer recirculation regions. The RNG and standard k-epsilon models are used to model the flow for both swirling and non-swirling entry jets and the results compared with experimental data [2]. Near wall viscous effects are accounted for in both models via the standard wall function formulation [3]. For the RNG model, additional computations with grid placement extending well inside the near wall viscous-affected sublayer are performed in order to assess the low Reynolds number capabilities of the model.

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Abstract is not available.

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Birefringent composite models are fabricated using epoxy resin reinforced with unidirectionally oriented glass fibers. The mechanical and photoelastic properties of the material at room temperature are determined. To explore the possibility of application of stress-freezing technique to birefringent composite models, the behavior and properties of this material are studied at elevated temperature (at stress-freezing temperature of the resin). The properties of the material at room and at elevated temperatures are reported. The feasibility of stress freezing glass-fiber-reinforced epoxy composites with low-fiber-volume fraction is discussed.