Magnitude and frequency: challenges for the assessment of vulnerability to geomorphic hazards

In natural hazard research, risk is defined as a function of (1) the probability of occurrence of a hazardous process, and (2) the assessment of the related extent of damage, defined by the value of elements at risk exposed and their physical vulnerability. Until now, various works have been undertaken to determine vulnerability values for objects exposed to geomorphic hazards such as mountain torrents. Yet, many studies only provide rough estimates for vulnerability values based on proxies for process intensities. However, the deduced vulnerability functions proposed in the literature show a wide range, in particular with respect to medium and high process magnitudes. In our study, we compare vulnerability functions for torrent processes derived from studies in test sites located in the Austrian Alps and in Taiwan. Based on this comparison we expose needs for future research in order to enhance mountain hazard risk management with a particular focus on the question of vulnerability on a catchment scale.

The effect of acute exercise and psychosocial stress on fine motor skills and testosterone concentration in the saliva of high school students

Little is known about the influence of different stressors on fine motor skills, the concentration of testosterone (T), and their interaction in adolescents. Therefore, 62 high school students aged 14–15 years were randomly assigned to two experimental groups (exercise, psychosocial stress) and a control group. Exercise stress was induced at 65–75% of the maximum heart rate by running for 15 minutes (n = 24). Psychosocial stress was generated by an intelligence test (HAWIK- IV), which was uncontrollable and characterized by social-evaluative-threat to the students (n=21). The control group followed was part of a regular school lesson with the same duration (n = 28). Saliva was collected after a normal school lesson (pre-test) as well as after the intervention/control period (post-test) and was analyzed for testosterone. Fine motor skills were assessed pre- and post-intervention using a manual dexterity test (Flower Trail) from the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2. A repeated measure ANCOVA including gender as a covariate revealed a significant group by test interaction, indicating an increase in manual dexterity only for the psychosocial stress group. Correlation analysis of all students shows that the change of testosterone from pre- to post-test was directly linked (r = 2.31, p = .01) to the changes in manual dexterity performance. Participants showing high increases in testosterone from pre- to post-test made fewer mistakes in the fine motor skills task. Findings suggest that manual dexterity increases when psychosocial stress is induced and that improvement of manual dexterity performance corresponds with the increase of testosterone.

Commentary on "Child Welfare Waivers: The Stakes for Families"

The purpose of this piece is to provide commentary of an article, Child Welfare Waivers: The Stakes for Your State, that discusses the recent reauthorization of the Title IV-E Child Welfare Waivers. The article provides an overview of funds available to the states for child welfare programs and their intended purpose and restrictions placed on use. As structured, the present system rewards states monetarily for maintaining foster care. Research from waiver programs shows promising results for improved outcomes at the same or lower financial cost by utilizing safe, proven alternatives to the current foster care system. Waiver funds also protect the financial commitment to child welfare because state legislative budget slashing in this area will result in the loss of Federal funding. The independent analysis required with the grant of a waiver must be maintained to provide ongoing analysis and oversight of the increase spending flexibility. Stakeholders must be aware of the program and its results and use these funds as an opportunity to assess new concepts and apply programs best suited to the needs of children in their state. Allowing those “on the ground” to determine appropriate programming and careful result assessment may be the best means for protecting children, preserving families and doing both in a manner that makes the most efficient use of available resources.

EMPLOYMENT AND EXPOSURES IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING AND PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES AND THE RISK OF LUNG CANCER (EPIDEMIOLOGY, ASSESSMENT)

This dissertation addresses the risk of lung cancer associated with occupational exposures in the petroleum refining and petrochemical industries. Earlier epidemiologic studies of this association did not adjust for cigarette smoking or have specific exposure classifications. The Texas EXposure Assessment System (TEXAS) was developed with data from a population-based, case-comparison study conducted in five southeast Texas counties between 1976 and 1980. The Texas Exposure Assessment System uses job and process categories developed by the American Petroleum Institute, as well as time-oriented variables to identify high risk groups.^ An industry-wide, increased risk for lung cancer was associated with jobs having low-level hydrocarbon exposure that also include other occupational inhalation exposures (OR = 2.0--adjusted for smoking and latency effects). The prohibition of cigarette smoking for jobs with high-level hydrocarbon exposure might explain part of the increased risk for jobs with low-level hydrocarbon exposures. Asbestos exposure comprises a large part of the risk associated with jobs having other inhalation exposures besides hydrocarbons. Workers in petroleum refineries were not shown to have an increased, occupational risk for lung cancer. The increased risk for lung cancer among petrochemical workers (OR = 3.1--smoking and latency adjusted) is associated with all jobs that involve other inhalation exposure characteristics (not only low-level hydrocarbon exposures). Findings for contract workers and workers exposed to specific chemicals were inconclusive although some hypotheses for future research were identified.^ The study results demonstrate that the predominant risk for lung cancer is due to cigarette smoking (OR = 9.8). Cigarette smoking accounts for 86.5% of the incident lung cancer cases within the study area. Workers in the petroleum industry smoke significantly less than persons employed in other industries (p << 0.001). Only 2.2% of the incident lung cancer cases may be attributed to petroleum industry jobs; lifestyle factors (e.g., nutrition) may be associated with the balance of the cases. The results from this study also suggest possible high risk time periods (OR = 3.9--smoking and occupation adjusted). Artifacts in time-oriented findings may result because of the latency interval for lung cancer, secular peaks in age-, sex-specific incidence rates, or periods of hazardous exposures in the petroleum industry. ^

Short-term functional outcome and premorbid adjustment in clinical high-risk patients. Results of the EPOS project

PURPOSE In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed. RESULTS During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model. CONCLUSION A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Assessment of Transverse Isotropy in Clinical-Level CT Images of Trabecular Bone Using the Gradient Structure Tensor

The aim of this study was to develop a GST-based methodology for accurately measuring the degree of transverse isotropy in trabecular bone. Using femoral sub-regions scanned in high-resolution peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and clinical-level-resolution QCT, trabecular orientation was evaluated using the mean intercept length (MIL) and the gradient structure tensor (GST) on the HR-pQCT and QCT data, respectively. The influence of local degree of transverse isotropy (DTI) and bone mineral density (BMD) was incorporated into the investigation. In addition, a power based model was derived, rendering a 1:1 relationship between GST and MIL eigenvalues. A specific DTI threshold (DTI thres) was found for each investigated size of region of interest (ROI), above which the estimate of major trabecular direction of the GST deviated no more than 30° from the gold standard MIL in 95% of the remaining ROIs (mean error: 16°). An inverse relationship between ROI size and DTI thres was found for discrete ranges of BMD. A novel methodology has been developed, where transversal isotropic measures of trabecular bone can be obtained from clinical QCT images for a given ROI size, DTI thres and power coefficient. Including DTI may improve future clinical QCT finite-element predictions of bone strength and diagnoses of bone disease.

Cardiopulmonary performance testing using a robotics-assisted tilt table: Feasibility assessment in able-bodied subjects

BACKGROUND: Robotics-assisted tilt table technology was introduced for early rehabilitation of neurological patients. It provides cyclical stepping movement and physiological loading of the legs. The aim of the present study was to assess the feasibility of this type of device for peak cardiopulmonary performance testing using able-bodied subjects. METHODS: A robotics-assisted tilt table was augmented with force sensors in the thigh cuffs and a work rate estimation algorithm. A custom visual feedback system was employed to guide the subjects' work rate and to provide real time feedback of actual work rate. Feasibility assessment focused on: (i) implementation (technical feasibility), and (ii) responsiveness (was there a measurable, high-level cardiopulmonary reaction?). For responsiveness testing, each subject carried out an incremental exercise test to the limit of functional capacity with a work rate increment of 5 W/min in female subjects and 8 W/min in males. RESULTS: 11 able-bodied subjects were included (9 male, 2 female; age 29.6 ± 7.1 years: mean ± SD). Resting oxygen uptake (O_{2}) was 4.6 ± 0.7 mL/min/kg and O_{2}peak was 32.4 ± 5.1 mL/min/kg; this mean O_{2}peak was 81.1% of the predicted peak value for cycle ergometry. Peak heart rate (HRpeak) was 177.5 ± 9.7 beats/min; all subjects reached at least 85% of their predicted HRpeak value. Respiratory exchange ratio (RER) at O_{2}peak was 1.02 ± 0.07. Peak work rate) was 61.3 ± 15.1 W. All subjects reported a Borg CR10 value for exertion and leg fatigue of 7 or more. CONCLUSIONS: The robotics-assisted tilt table is deemed feasible for peak cardiopulmonary performance testing: the approach was found to be technically implementable and substantial cardiopulmonary responses were observed. Further testing in neurologically-impaired subjects is warranted.

Risk assessment for the design of a risk-based surveillance programme for fish farms in Switzerland (in accordance with Council Directive 2006/88/EC of the European Union).

Swiss aquaculture farms were assessed according to their risk of acquiring or spreading viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Risk factors for the introduction and spread of VHS and IHN were defined and assessed using published data and expert opinions. Among the 357 aquaculture farms identified in Switzerland, 49.3% were categorised as high risk, 49.0% as medium risk and 1.7% as low risk. According to the new Directive 2006/88/EC for aquaculture of the European Union, the frequency of farm inspections must be derived from their risk levels. A sensitivity analysis showed that water supply and fish movements were highly influential on the output of the risk assessment regarding the introduction of VHS and IHN. Fish movements were also highly influential on the risk assessment output regarding the spread of these diseases.

A Longitudinal Assessment of Sleep Timing, Circadian Phase, and Phase Angle of Entrainment across Human Adolescence

The aim of this descriptive analysis was to examine sleep timing, circadian phase, and phase angle of entrainment across adolescence in a longitudinal study design. Ninety-four adolescents participated; 38 (21 boys) were 9-10 years ("younger cohort") and 56 (30 boys) were 15-16 years ("older cohort") at the baseline assessment. Participants completed a baseline and then follow-up assessments approximately every six months for 2.5 years. At each assessment, participants wore a wrist actigraph for at least one week at home to measure self-selected sleep timing before salivary dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) phase - a marker of the circadian timing system - was measured in the laboratory. Weekday and weekend sleep onset and offset and weekend-weekday differences were derived from actigraphy. Phase angles were the time durations from DLMO to weekday sleep onset and offset times. Each cohort showed later sleep onset (weekend and weekday), later weekend sleep offset, and later DLMO with age. Weekday sleep offset shifted earlier with age in the younger cohort and later in the older cohort after age 17. Weekend-weekday sleep offset differences increased with age in the younger cohort and decreased in the older cohort after age 17. DLMO to sleep offset phase angle narrowed with age in the younger cohort and became broader in the older cohort. The older cohort had a wider sleep onset phase angle compared to the younger cohort; however, an age-related phase angle increase was seen in the younger cohort only. Individual differences were seen in these developmental trajectories. This descriptive study indicated that circadian phase and self-selected sleep delayed across adolescence, though school-day sleep offset advanced until no longer in high school, whereupon offset was later. Phase angle changes are described as an interaction of developmental changes in sleep regulation interacting with psychosocial factors (e.g., bedtime autonomy)

Objective assessment of patient compliance with removable orthodontic appliances: a cross-sectional cohort study.

OBJECTIVE To assess objectively patient compliance with removable orthodontic appliances and the effect of possible influential factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Wearing times of 45 White patients were recorded with the aid of the TheraMon microsensor. Patient compliance was assessed relative to wear prescription and other parameters, such as age and sex. RESULTS There was high individual variation in most measured variables and in all groups/subgroups. During a median observation period of 186 days (range, 55-318 days) the actual wear time was 9.0 h/d (range, 0.0-16.0 h/d) and did not differ between distinct prescriptions (P = .49). Eight patients wore their appliances less than 2 h/d, and six of them did not wear their appliances at all. Overall, the median wear per day relative to prescription was 62.5% (range, 0.0-89.3%) for the 14 h/d and 112.5% (range, 0.0-200.0%) for the 8 h/d prescription wear (P = .01) groups. There was a strong negative correlation of age (median: 12.5 years) with the daily percentage of actual wear time per day relative to wear prescription (14 h/d prescription: n = 21, rho = -0.61, P = .00; 8 h/d prescription: n = 24, rho = -0.73, P = .00), while sex did not exert a significant influence on compliance (P = .58). CONCLUSIONS Despite the fact that patients and parents were informed about wear time recording, compliance was insufficient with regard to functional treatment (14 h/d prescription), while it was sufficient for retention purposes (8 h/d prescription). Objective measures are necessary to assess compliance with removable orthodontic appliances since patient compliance is a highly variable issue.

Assessment of patient setup errors in IGRT in combination with a six degrees of freedom couch

PURPOSE The range of patient setup errors in six dimensions detected in clinical routine for cranial as well as for extracranial treatments, were analyzed while performing linear accelerator based stereotactic treatments with frameless patient setup systems. Additionally, the need for re-verification of the patient setup for situations where couch rotations are involved was analyzed for patients treated in the cranial region. METHODS AND MATERIALS A total of 2185 initial (i.e. after pre-positioning the patient with the infrared system but before image guidance) patient setup errors (1705 in the cranial and 480 in the extracranial region) obtained by using ExacTrac (BrainLAB AG, Feldkirchen, Germany) were analyzed. Additionally, the patient setup errors as a function of the couch rotation angle were obtained by analyzing 242 setup errors in the cranial region. Before the couch was rotated, the patient setup error was corrected at couch rotation angle 0° with the aid of image guidance and the six degrees of freedom (6DoF) couch. For both situations attainment rates for two different tolerances (tolerance A: ± 0.5mm, ± 0.5°; tolerance B: ± 1.0 mm, ± 1.0°) were calculated. RESULTS The mean (± one standard deviation) initial patient setup errors for the cranial cases were -0.24 ± 1.21°, -0.23 ± 0.91° and -0.03 ± 1.07° for the pitch, roll and couch rotation axes and 0.10 ± 1.17 mm, 0.10 ± 1.62 mm and 0.11 ± 1.29 mm for the lateral, longitudinal and vertical axes, respectively. Attainment rate (all six axes simultaneously) for tolerance A was 0.6% and 13.1% for tolerance B, respectively. For the extracranial cases the corresponding values were -0.21 ± 0.95°, -0.05 ± 1.08° and -0.14 ± 1.02° for the pitch, roll and couch rotation axes and 0.15 ± 1.77 mm, 0.62 ± 1.94 mm and -0.40 ± 2.15 mm for the lateral, longitudinal and vertical axes. Attainment rate (all six axes simultaneously) for tolerance A was 0.0% and 3.1% for tolerance B, respectively. After initial setup correction and rotation of the couch to treatment position a re-correction has to be performed in 77.4% of all cases to fulfill tolerance A and in 15.6% of all cases to fulfill tolerance B. CONCLUSION The analysis of the data shows that all six axes of a 6DoF couch are used extensively for patient setup in clinical routine. In order to fulfill high patient setup accuracies (e.g. for stereotactic treatments), a 6DoF couch is recommended. Moreover, re-verification of the patient setup after rotating the couch is required in clinical routine.

Predictors of thromboprophylaxis in hospitalised medical patients. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

Both, underuse and overuse of thromboprophylaxis in hospitalised medical patients is common. We aimed to explore clinical factors associated with the use of pharmacological or mechanical thromboprophylaxis in acutely ill medical patients at high (Geneva Risk Score ≥ 3 points) vs low (Geneva Risk Score < 3 points) risk of venous thromboembolism. Overall, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients from eight large Swiss hospitals were enrolled in the prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study. The study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. Thromboprophylaxis increased stepwise with increasing Geneva Risk Score (p< 0.001). Among the 962 high-risk patients, 366 (38 %) received no thromboprophylaxis; cancer-associated thrombocytopenia (OR 4.78, 95 % CI 2.75-8.31, p< 0.001), active bleeding on admission (OR 2.88, 95 % CI 1.69-4.92, p< 0.001), and thrombocytopenia without cancer (OR 2.54, 95 % CI 1.31-4.95, p=0.006) were independently associated with the absence of prophylaxis. The use of thromboprophylaxis declined with increasing severity of thrombocytopenia (p=0.001). Among the 516 low-risk patients, 245 (48 %) received thromboprophylaxis; none of the investigated clinical factors predicted its use. In conclusion, in acutely ill medical patients, bleeding and thrombocytopenia were the most important factors for the absence of thromboprophylaxis among high-risk patients. The use of thromboprophylaxis among low-risk patients was inconsistent, without clearly identifiable predictors, and should be addressed in further research.

Assessment of the excretion time of electronic capsules placed in the intestinal lumen of cows with cecal dilatation-dislocation, healthy control cows, and cows with left displacement of the abomasum

OBJECTIVE To analyze the transit time from various locations in the intestines of cows with cecal dilatation-dislocation (CDD), healthy control cows, and cows with left displacement of the abomasum (LDA). ANIMALS 15 cows with naturally occurring CDD (group 1), 14 healthy control cows (group 2), and 18 cows with LDA (group 3). PROCEDURES 5 electronic transmitters were encased in capsules and placed in the lumen of the ileum, cecum, proximal portion of the colon, and 2 locations in the spiral colon (colon 1 and colon 2) and used to measure the transit time (ie, time between placement in the lumen and excretion of the capsules from the rectum). Excretion time of the capsules from each intestinal segment was compared among groups. RESULTS Cows recovered well from surgery, except for 1 cow with relapse of CDD 4 days after surgery and 2 cows with incisional infection. High variability in capsule excretion times was observed for all examined intestinal segments in all groups. Significant differences were detected for the excretion time from the colon (greater in cows with CDD than in healthy control cows) and cecum (less in cows with LDA than in cows of the other 2 groups). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The technique developed to measure excretion time of capsules from bovine intestines was safe and reliable; however, the large variability observed for all intestinal segments and all groups would appear to be a limitation for its use in assessment of intestinal transit time of cattle in future studies.

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging detects significant prostate cancer with high probability

PURPOSE We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a prospective study of 111 consecutive men with prostate and/or bladder cancer who underwent 3 Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of the pelvis without an endorectal coil before radical prostatectomy (78) or cystoprostatectomy (33). Three independent readers blinded to clinical and pathological data assigned a prostate cancer suspicion grade based on qualitative imaging analysis. Final pathology results of prostates with and without cancer served as the reference standard. Primary outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer with significance defined as a largest diameter of the index lesion of 1 cm or greater, extraprostatic extension, or Gleason score 7 or greater on final pathology assessment. Secondary outcomes were interreader agreement assessed by the Fleiss κ coefficient and image reading time. RESULTS Of the 111 patients 93 had prostate cancer, which was significant in 80 and insignificant in 13, and 18 had no prostate cancer on final pathology results. The sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant PCa was 89% to 91% and 77% to 81%, respectively, for the 3 readers. Interreader agreement was good (Fleiss κ 0.65 to 0.74). Median reading time was between 13 and 18 minutes. CONCLUSIONS Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (3 Tesla) is a noninvasive technique that allows for the detection of significant prostate cancer with high probability without contrast medium or an endorectal coil, and with good interreader agreement and a short reading time. This technique should be further evaluated as a tool to stratify patients with prostate cancer for individualized treatment options.