Female greater wax moths reduce sexual display behavior in relation to the potential risk of predation by echolocating bats

Female greater wax moths Galleria mellonella display by wing fanning in response to bursts of ultrasonic calls produced by males. The temporal and spectral characteristics of these calls show some similarities with the echolocation calls of bats that emit frequency-modulated (FM) signals. Female G. mellonella therefore need to distinguish between the attractive signals of male conspecifics, which may lead to mating opportunities, and similar sounds made by predatory bats. We therefore predicted that (1) females would display in response to playbacks of male calls; (2) females would not display in response to playbacks of the calls of echolocating bats (we used the calls of Daubenton's bat Myotis daubentonii as representative of a typical FM echolocating bat); and (3) when presented with male calls and bat calls during the same time block, females would display more when perceived predation risk was lower. We manipulated predation risk in two ways. First, we varied the intensity of bat calls to represent a nearby (high risk) or distant (low risk) bat. Second, we played back calls of bats searching for prey (low risk) and attacking prey (high risk). All predictions were supported, suggesting that female G. mellonella are able to distinguish conspecific male mating calls from bat calls, and that they modify display rate in relation to predation risk. The mechanism (s) by which the moths separate the calls of bat and moth must involve temporal cues. Bat and moth signals differ considerably in duration, and differences in duration could be encoded by the moth's nervous system and used in discrimination.

Prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility: a cross-sectional prevalence study

Background Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities face significant challenges from the ageing population and the increasing burden of chronic disease. Foot disease complications are a negative consequence of many chronic diseases. With the rapid expansion of subacute rehabilitation inpatient services, it seems imperative to investigate the prevalence of foot disease and foot disease risk factors in this population. The primary aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility. Methods Eligible participants were all adults admitted at least overnight into a large Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility over two different four week periods. Consenting participants underwent a short non-invasive foot examination by a podiatrist utilising the validated Queensland Health High Risk Foot Form to collect data on age, sex, medical co-morbidity history, foot disease risk factor history and clinically diagnosed foot disease complications and foot disease risk factors. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the prevalence of clinically diagnosed foot disease complications, foot disease risk factors and groups of foot disease risk factors. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate any associations between defined explanatory variables and appropriate foot disease outcome variables. Results Overall, 85 (88%) of 97 people admitted to the facility during the study periods consented; mean age 80 (±9) years and 71% were female. The prevalence (95% confidence interval) of participants with active foot disease was 11.8% (6.3 – 20.5), 32.9% (23.9 – 43.5) had multiple foot disease risk factors, and overall, 56.5% (45.9 – 66.5) had at least one foot disease risk factor. A self-reported history of peripheral neuropathy diagnosis was independently associated with having multiple foot disease risk factors (OR 13.504, p = 0.001). Conclusion This study highlights the potential significance of the burden of foot disease in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. One in eight subacute inpatients were admitted with active foot disease and one in two with at least one foot disease risk factor in this study. It is recommended that further multi-site studies and management guidelines are required to address the foot disease burden in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Keywords: Subacute; Inpatient; Foot; Complication; Prevalence

The contribution of major depression to the global burden of ischemic heart disease : a comparative risk assessment

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.

The burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders as risk factors for suicide : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

Epidemiology and risk factors of oral cancer in South Africa

Head and neck cancers are some of the leading cancers in the coloured and black South African male population and the perception exists that the incidence rates are rising. Aims: To determine the standardised morbidity rates and some of the risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa. Methods: Using histologically verified data from the National Cancer Registry, the age standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and life-time risks (LR) of oral cancer in South Africa were calculated for 1988-1991.2. In an ongoing case control study (1995 +) among black patients in Johannesburg/Soweto, adjusted odds ratios for developing oral cancers in relation to tobacco and alcohol consumption were calculated. Results: Coloured males vs. females: ASIR 13.13 vs. 3.5 (/100,000/year), LR 1:65 vs. 1:244. Black males vs. females: ASIR 9.06 vs. 1.75, LR 1:86 and 1:455. White males vs. females: ASIR 8.06 vs. 3.18, LR 1:104 vs. 1:278. Asian males vs. females: ASIR 5.24 vs. 6.66, LR 1:161 vs. 1:125. The odds ratio for oral cancer in black males in relation to smoking was 7.0 (95% CI 3.0-14.6) and daily alcohol consumption 1.3 (95% CI 0.6-2.8). In black females the odds ratios in relation to smoking were 3.9 (95% CI 1.7 8.9) and daily alcohol consumption 1.7(95% CI 0.7-4.1). Conclusions: The risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa are multiple and gender discrepancies in ASIR and LR signal differences in exposure to carcinogens. It is unclear whether the incidence of oral cancers will rise in the future.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Reason of state and a new notion of fortune : Historicising the risk society

Since the 1980s the concept of risk has produced a large and diverse volume of sociological research. Ulrich Beck’s groundbreaking risk society thesis provides a particularly engaging contribution, since it seems that nearly every sociological account of risk engages with this work. For Beck, we are living in second modernity – a new epoch that breaks with pre-modernity and industrial society due to the centrality, incalculability and reflexivity of globalised risk. While Beck’s theory is compelling, a reading of other theorists such as Foucault (2007[1978]) and Hacking (1975,1990) suggests that a difficulty with Beck’s work is that in attempting to explain what is novel about risk in contemporary times, he too quickly passes over the complexities and ruptures of historical change that impact on the history and contingency of risk. This paper begins by presenting a brief analysis of the present state of risk by introducing Beck’s historical narrative of risk from pre-modernity to the risk society; it then outlines the challenges with the “risk as epoch” argument by considering a range of literature, which suggests risk has a more complex history than proposed by Beck; and finally it highlights the value in examining strategies of statecraft in early modern Europe, specifically Machiavelli’s The Prince (2008[1513]) and Giovanni Botero’s political treatise, Della Ragion di Stato (1956[1589]) – as a means of more thoroughly understanding how our current concept of risk emerges. In doing so, this paper seeks to open up new trajectories in the historicisation of risk for other interested scholars.

Using upper bounds on attainable discrimination to select discrete valued features

Selection of features that will permit accurate pattern classification is a difficult task. However, if a particular data set is represented by discrete valued features, it becomes possible to determine empirically the contribution that each feature makes to the discrimination between classes. This paper extends the discrimination bound method so that both the maximum and average discrimination expected on unseen test data can be estimated. These estimation techniques are the basis of a backwards elimination algorithm that can be use to rank features in order of their discriminative power. Two problems are used to demonstrate this feature selection process: classification of the Mushroom Database, and a real-world, pregnancy related medical risk prediction task - assessment of risk of perinatal death.

Is there a potential relationship between prior h amstring strain injury and increased risk for future a nterior cruciate ligament injury?

Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) are the most prevalent injury in a number of sports, and while anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are less common, they are far more severe and have long-term implications, such as an increased risk of developing osteoarthritis later in life. Given the high incidence and severity of these injuries, they are key targets of injury preventive programs in elite sport. Evidence has shown that a previous severe knee injury (including ACL injury) increases the risk of HSI; however, whether the functional deficits that occur after HSI result in an increased risk of ACL injury has yet to be considered. In this clinical commentary, we present evidence that suggests that the link between previous HSI and increased risk of ACL injury requires further investigation by drawing parallels between deficits in hamstring function after HSI and in women athletes, who are more prone to ACL injury than men athletes. Comparisons between the neuromuscular function of the male and female hamstring has shown that women display lower hamstring-to-quadriceps strength ratios during isokinetic knee flexion and extension, increased activation of the quadriceps compared with the hamstrings during a stop-jump landing task, a greater time required to reach maximal isokinetic hamstring torque, and lower integrated myoelectrical hamstring activity during a sidestep cutting maneuver. Somewhat similarly, in athletes with a history of HSI, the previously injured limb, compared with the uninjured limb, displays lower eccentric knee flexor strength, a lower hamstrings-to-quadriceps strength ratio, lower voluntary myoelectrical activity during maximal knee flexor eccentric contraction, a lower knee flexor eccentric rate of torque development, and lower voluntary myoelectrical activity during the initial portion of eccentric contraction. Given that the medial and lateral hamstrings have different actions at the knee joint in the coronal plane, which hamstring head is previously injured might also be expected to influence the likelihood of future ACL. Whether the deficits in function after HSI, as seen in laboratory-based studies, translate to deficits in hamstring function during typical injurious tasks for ACL injury has yet to be determined but should be a consideration for future work.

Risk perception and the public acceptance of drones

Unmanned aircraft, or drones, are a rapidly emerging sector of the aviation industry. There has been limited substantive research, however, into the public perception and acceptance of drones. This paper presents the results from two surveys of the Australian public designed to investigate (a) whether the public perceive drones to be riskier than existing manned aviation, (b) whether the terminology used to describe the technology influences public perception, and (c) what the broader concerns are that may influence public acceptance of the technology. We find that the Australian public currently hold a relatively neutral attitude towards drones. Respondents did not consider the technology to be overly unsafe, risky, beneficial, or threatening. Drones are largely viewed as being of comparable risk to that of existing manned aviation. Further, terminology had a minimal effect on the perception of the risks or acceptability of the technology. The neutral response is likely due to a lack of knowledge about the technology, which was also identified as the most prevalent public concern as opposed to the risks associated with its use. Privacy, military use and misuse (e.g., terrorism) were also significant public concerns. The results suggest that society is yet to form an opinion of drones. As public knowledge increases, the current position is likely to change. Industry communication and media coverage will likely influence the ultimate position adopted by the public, which can be difficult to change once established.

Do twins differ from single-born children on rates of behavioral difficulty in early childhood? A study of sibling relationship risk factors

The hypothesis that twinning raises risk for behavioral difficulties in childhood is persistent, yet there is limited and inconsistent empirical evidence. Simple mean comparison without control for confounders provides data on prevalence rates but cannot provide knowledge about risk or etiology. To assess the effect of twin relationship on behavior, comparison of patterns of association with single-born siblings may be informative. Analyses of data from an Australian sample of twins and single-born children (N = 305, mean age 4 years 9 months, and a follow-up 12 months later) were undertaken. The outcome measure was the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Predictor and control measures were obtained from parent report on the sibling/co-twin relationship behavior, family demographics, and obstetric history. We assessed difference between twins and single-born children in two respects: (a) mean behavioral difficulties, and (b) patterns of association between sibling relationship and behavioral difficulties, controlling for confounders. Results showed no differences in mean levels of behavioral difficulties between twins and single-born siblings identifying the importance of statistical control for family and obstetric adversity. Differences in patterns of association were found; for twin children, conflict in their co-twin relationship predicted externalizing behaviors, while for single-born children conflict predicted internalizing behaviors. The findings of mean differences between twin and single-born children in social background, but not in behavioral difficulties, underscore the necessity of statistical control to identify risk associated with twinning compared with risk associated with family and obstetric background factors.

Interaction of erythrocyte eicosapentaenoic acid and physical activity predicts reduced risk of mild cognitive impairment

Objectives To evaluate relationships between self-reported physical activity, proportions of long-chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCn3) in erythrocyte content (percentage of total fatty acids) and risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in older adults. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted. Community-dwelling male and female (n = 84) participants over the age of 65 years with and without MCI were tested for erythrocyte proportions of the LCn3s eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). Physical activity was measured using a validated questionnaire. Results The interaction between erythrocyte EPA, but not DHA, and increased physical activity was associated with increased odds of a non-MCI classification. Conclusion An interaction between physical activity and erythrocyte EPA content (percentage of fatty acids) significantly predicted MCI status in older adults. Randomised control trials are needed to examine the potential for supplementation with EPA in combination with increased physical activity to mitigate the risk of MCI in ageing adults.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black South Africans

The authors used data collected from 1995 to 1999, from an on-going cancer case–control study in greater Johannesburg, to estimate the importance of tobacco and alcohol consumption and other suspected risk factors with respect to cancer of the oesophagus (267 men and 138 women), lung (105 men and 41 women), oral cavity (87 men and 37 women), and larynx (51 men). Cancers not associated with tobacco or alcohol consumption were used as controls (804 men and 1370 women). Tobacco smoking was found to be the major risk factor for all of these cancers with odds ratios ranging from 2.6 (95% CI 1.5–4.5) for oesophageal cancer in female ex-smokers to 50.9 (95% CI 12.6–204.6) for lung cancer in women, and 23.9 (95% CI 9.5–60.3) for lung cancer and 23.6 (95% CI 4.6–121.2) for laryngeal cancer in men who smoked 15 or more grams of tobacco a day. This is the first time an association between smoking and oral and laryngeal cancers has been shown in sub-Saharan Africa. Long-term residence in the Transkei region in the southeast of the country continues to be a risk factor for oesophageal cancer, especially in women (odds ratio=14.7, 95% CI 4.7–46.0), possibly due to nutritional factors. There was a slight increase in lung cancer (odds ratio=2.9, 95% CI 1.1–7.5) in men working in ‘potentially noxious’ industries. ‘Frequent’ alcohol consumption, on its own, caused a marginally elevated risk for oesophageal cancer (odds ratio=1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.9, for women and odds ratio=1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.8, for men). The risks for oesophageal cancer in relation to alcohol consumption increased significantly in male and female smokers (odds ratio=4.7, 95% CI=2.8–7.9 in males and odds ratio=4.8, 95% CI 3.2–6.1 in females). The above results are broadly in line with international findings.