Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

A variabilidade no consumo de recursos nos traumatismos crânio-encefálicos

RESUMO - Portugal atravessa um contexto socioeconómico conturbado onde se têm imposto várias reformas, nomeadamente ao nível da Saúde. Atualmente, o financiamento do internamento hospitalar é feito por grupos de diagnóstico homogéneo com base num sistema prospetivo, reunindo os episódios em grupos clinicamente coerentes e homogéneos, de acordo com o consumo de recursos necessário para o seu tratamento, tendo em conta as suas características clínicas. Apesar do objetivo deste sistema de classificação de doentes, é aceite que existe variabilidade no consumo de recursos entre episódios semelhantes, sendo que a mesma variabilidade pode representar uma diferença significativa nos custos de tratamento. Os Traumatismos Cranio-encefálicos são considerados um problema de saúde pública, pelo que os episódios selecionados para este estudo tiveram por base os diagnósticos mais comuns relacionados com esta problemática. Procurou-se estudar a relação entre o consumo esperado e o observado bem como, a forma em que esta relação é influenciada por diferentes variáveis. Para verificar a existência de variabilidade no consumo de recursos, bem como as variáveis mais influentes, foi utilizada a regressão linear e constatou-se que variáveis como a idade, o destino pós-alta e o distrito têm poder explicativo sobre esta relação. Verificou-se igualmente que na sua generalidade as instituições hospitalares são eficientes na prestação de cuidados. Compreender a variabilidade do consumo de recursos e as suas implicações no financiamento poderá suscitar a dúvida se a utilização de GDH será o mais adequado à realidade portuguesa, de forma a ajustar as políticas de saúde, mantendo a eficiência e a qualidade dos cuidados.

The impact of national and international observers in democratic elections: A randomized control trial from the Mozambican elections of 2009

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Italian interlocking directorates: structure, evolution and cross-country comparisons

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Draft for a Mental Health strategy Lebanon

RESUMO: O Líbano é um pequeno país na costa leste do Mar Mediterrâneo, com uma população de aproximadamente 4.350.000 pessoas, incluindo 1,5 milhões de refugiados, 400 mil dos quais são palestinos atendidos pela UNRWA (Agência das Nações Unidas de Socorro aos Refugiados da Palestina) (UNHCR, 2013; OMS, 2010a). Desde 2012, um excedente de 1.000.000 refugiados sírios cruzaram a fronteira com o Líbano, representando um aumento populacional de aproximadamente 25%. Além disso, entre 1975 e 1990, a violenta guerra civil pela qual o Líbano passou, destruiu grande parte da infra-estrutura do país, incluindo os serviços de saúde. O sector da saúde, mais especificamente os serviços de saúde mental, é majoritariamente privado. Serviços especializados em Saúde Mental estão disponíveis em três hospitais psiquiátricos privados, e em 4 unidades psiquiátricas de hospitais gerais, que estão localizados centralmente em torno da capital, Beirute. O Líbano é um dos dois únicos países da região que não tem uma Política de Saúde Mental e um dos seis países que não têm uma Legislação em Saúde Mental. Nos últimos anos, a Saúde Mental está sendo colocada no topo da agenda nacional, apesar das contínuas questões políticas e de segurança. Baseando-se nas informações acima, um projecto de estratégia em Saúde Mental, conduzido pelo Ministério da Saúde e apoiado pela OMS, foi escrito para servir como um guia para trabalhar em diferentes aspectos relacionados tanto em saúde mental quanto em organização dos serviços, revisão de legislação, financiamento e proteção dos direitos humanos básicos dos usuários do serviço. Esta tese descreve o processo pelo qual o projecto de estratégia nacional de Saúde Mental foi desenvolvido, seus principais componentes, os próximos passos a serem tomados para a sua implementação, os desafios e as oportunidades para implementá-lo e propõe alguns passos iniciais a serem tomados em primeiro lugar.----------ABSTRACT: Lebanon is a small country on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea with a population of approximately 4,350,000 including 1,500,000 refugees, 400,000 of whom are Palestinians served by UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) (UNHCR, 2013; WHO, 2010a). Since 2012 an excess of 1,000,000 Syrian refugees have crossed the border into Lebanon accounting for approximately 25% increase in the population. In addition, from 1975 to 1990 Lebanon underwent a violent civil war that had also destroyed much of the country infrastructure including health services. The health sector, more so the mental health services, is mostly private. Specialized Mental Health services are available at three private mental hospitals, and 4 psychiatric units within general hospitals, which are located centrally around the capital, Beirut. Lebanon is one of only two countries of the region that does not have a Mental Health policy and one out of the six countries that does not have a Mental Health legislation. In recent years, Mental Health is getting placed higher on the national agenda despite the ever continuing political and security issues. Based on the above, A Mental Health strategy draft, lead by the Ministry of Health and supported by WHO, was written to serve as a guide to work on different aspects related to Mental Health from service organization, to the revision of legislation, financing and the protection of the basic human rights of service users. This thesis describes the process through which the national Mental Health draft strategy was developed, its main components, the next steps to be taken for its implementation, the challenges and the opportunities to implementing it and proposes a few initial steps to be taken first.

Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Integrated care approaches and skills mix policies in Europe

ABSTRACT - Background: Integration of health care services is emerging as a central challenge of health care delivery, particularly for patients with elderly and complex chronic conditions. In 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) already began to identify it as one of the key pathways to improve primary care. In 2005, the European Commission declared integrated care as vital for the sustainability of social protection systems in Europe. Nowadays, it is recognized as a core component of health and social care reforms across European countries. Implementing integrated care requires coordination between settings, organizations, providers and professionals. In order to address the challenge of integration in such complex scenario, an effective workforce is required capable of working across interdependent settings. The World Health Report 2006 noted that governments should prepare their workforce and explore what tasks the different levels of health workers are trained to do and are capable of performing (skills mix). Comparatively to other European countries, Portugal is at an early stage in what integrated care is concerned facing a growing elderly population and the subsequent increase in the pressure on institutions and professionals to provide social and medical care in the most cost-effective way. In 2006 the Portuguese government created the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development (PNICD) to solve the existing long-term gap in social support and healthcare. On what concerns health workforce, the Portuguese government already recognized the importance of redefine careers keeping professional motivation and satisfaction. Aim of the study: This study aims to contribute new evidence to the debate surrounding integrated care and skills mix policies in Europe. It also seeks to provide the first evidence that incorporates both the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and the developments of international literature. The first ambition of our study is to contribute to the growing interest in integrated care and to the ongoing research in this area by identifying its different approaches and retrieve a number of experiences in some European countries. Our second goal of this research is to produce an update on the knowledge developed on skills mix to the international healthcare management community and to policy makers involved in reforming healthcare systems and organizations. To better inform Portuguese health policies makers in a third stage we explore the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and contextualize them with the developments reported in the international literature. Methodology: This is essentially an exploratory and descriptive study using qualitative methodology. In order to identify integrated care approaches in Europe, a systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Management and Marketing in Health care titled: Approaches to developing integrated care in Europe: a systematic literature review. This article was recommended and included into a list of references identified by The King's Fund Library. A second systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the International Journal of Healthcare Management titled: Skills mix in healthcare: An international update for the management debate. Semi-structured interviews were performed on experts representing the regional coordination teams of the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development. In a last stage a questionnaire survey was developed based on the findings of both systematic literature reviews and semi-structured interviews. Conclusions: Even though integrated care is a worldwide trend in health care reforms, there is no unique definition. Definitions can be grouped according to their sectorial focus: community-based care, combined health and social care, combined acute and primary care, the integration of providers, and in a more comprehensive approach the whole health system. Indeed, models that seek to apply the principles of integrated care have a similar background and are continually evolving and depend on the different initiatives taken at national level. . Despite the fact that we cannot argue that there is one single set typology of models for integrated care, it is possible to identify and categorize some of the basic approaches that have been taken in attempts to implement integrated care according to: changes in organizational structure, workforce reconfiguring, and changes in the financing system. The systematic literature review on skills mix showed that despite the widely acknowledged interest on skills mix initiatives there is a lack of evidence on skills mix implications, constraints, outcomes, and quality impact that would allow policy makers to take sustained and evidence-based decisions. Within the Portuguese health system, the integrated care approach is rather organizational and financial, whereas little attention is given to workforce integration. On what concerns workforce planning Portugal it is still in the stage of analyzing the acceptability of health workforce skills mix. In line with the international approaches, integration of health and social services and bridging primary and acute care are the main goals of the national government strategy. The findings from our interviews clarify perceptions which show no discrepancy with the related literature but are rather scarce comparing to international experience. Informants hold a realistic but narrow view of integrated care related issues. They seem to be limited to the regional context, requiring a more comprehensive perspective. The questionnaire developed in this thesis is an instrument which, when applied, will allow policy makers to understand the basic set of concepts and managerial motivations behind national and regional integrated care programs. The instrument developed can foster evidence on the three essential components of integrated care policies: organizational, financial, and human resources development, and can give additional input on the context in which integrated care is being developed, the type of providers and organizations involved, barriers and constraints, and the workforce skills mix planning related strategies. The thesis was successful in recognizing differences between countries and interventions and the instrument developed will allow a better comprehension of the international options available and how to address the vital components of integrated care programs.

Campanha negativa nas eleições legislativas de 2011: uma análise do discurso político

Esta dissertação pretende observar o fenómeno das campanhas negativas nas eleições portuguesas, usando como caso de estudo a campanha eleitoral das eleições legislativas de 2011. Procurou-se analisar o discurso político dos partidos nesta campanha eleitoral, recorrendo à análise de conteúdo. Para apoiar a interpretação dos resultados foram realizadas entrevistas aos directores de campanha ou outros actores políticos com um papel relevante na definição e implementação da estratégia eleitoral do BE, CDU, CDS, PS e PSD. Os resultados indicam que a campanha eleitoral de 2011 foi essencialmente positiva: a maior parte do discurso dos partidos focou-se na apresentação e defesa das suas ideias, programas e qualidades e não na crítica aos adversários. As campanhas negativas incidiram sobretudo sobre conteúdos políticos e os ataques não foram personalizados. Os resultados indicam ainda que as teorias que explicam a utilização de campanhas negativas noutros países não se aplicam em Portugal. Segundo os entrevistados, apesar do confronto de ideias ser essencial, as campanhas negativas não resultam em Portugal, ao contrário do que acontece noutros países.

Towards an algorithmic skeleton framework for programming the Intel R Xeon PhiTM processor

The Intel R Xeon PhiTM is the first processor based on Intel’s MIC (Many Integrated Cores) architecture. It is a co-processor specially tailored for data-parallel computations, whose basic architectural design is similar to the ones of GPUs (Graphics Processing Units), leveraging the use of many integrated low computational cores to perform parallel computations. The main novelty of the MIC architecture, relatively to GPUs, is its compatibility with the Intel x86 architecture. This enables the use of many of the tools commonly available for the parallel programming of x86-based architectures, which may lead to a smaller learning curve. However, programming the Xeon Phi still entails aspects intrinsic to accelerator-based computing, in general, and to the MIC architecture, in particular. In this thesis we advocate the use of algorithmic skeletons for programming the Xeon Phi. Algorithmic skeletons abstract the complexity inherent to parallel programming, hiding details such as resource management, parallel decomposition, inter-execution flow communication, thus removing these concerns from the programmer’s mind. In this context, the goal of the thesis is to lay the foundations for the development of a simple but powerful and efficient skeleton framework for the programming of the Xeon Phi processor. For this purpose we build upon Marrow, an existing framework for the orchestration of OpenCLTM computations in multi-GPU and CPU environments. We extend Marrow to execute both OpenCL and C++ parallel computations on the Xeon Phi. We evaluate the newly developed framework, several well-known benchmarks, like Saxpy and N-Body, will be used to compare, not only its performance to the existing framework when executing on the co-processor, but also to assess the performance on the Xeon Phi versus a multi-GPU environment.

Portuguese banks and the economic adjustment programme: balance sheet adjustments and impact on profitability

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Finance from Louvain School of Management

Mota-Engil new prospects of growth: Overcoming the financial crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis caused the collapse of business key sectors, declines in consumer wealth and a fall in economic activity resulting in a global recession. In some European countries, the 2008 crisis contributed to a sovereign-debt crisis which had a strong impact in Southern European countries. The construction sector was particularly affected, with budget cuts disturbing public investment and no financing available for private constructors. This report intends to explain how Mota-Engil, faced this situation of low growth, and which strategies were adopted by the management to overcome the difficult economic conjecture, mainly in its domestic market: Portugal. The report is organized as a case-study. The first part, the case narrative, is subdivided into 6 parts, and the second part is the teaching note. The teaching note is constituted by the four questions and their respective responses.

Starburst accelerator and incubator construction & energy: How to monitor the activities of an incubator and give strategic advice to startups

This work project takes the format of a problem-solving approach suggested by “Impulse Partners”, a French consulting firm. It recommends a way to measure the success of ten startups in the incubators “Starburst” and “Incubator Construction & Energy” and give them strategic guidance. A Balanced Scorecard is elaborated to help incubated startups building up and implementing their strategy. The Scorecard suggests possible initiatives for the startups that are ideally realized with the help of the consulting firm that is steering the incubator. Special attention is drawn to what the startups need to succeed, which typically concerns financing, networking and managing skills.

O contrato de Project Finance

Currently, Angola portrays a notorious economic growth and due to recent innovative legislations, it has become the major investment attracting pole, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, having, thus, an extraordinary potentiality for a rapid and sustainable development, likely to place her in outstanding positions in the world economic ranking. Yet, such economic growth entails demanding levels of intensive investment in infrastructure, what has been reported of the Angolan Government to be unable to respond to, save if recurring to very high index of external debt, poisoning, in this way, the future budgeting of the country. Due to these infrastructure investment shortages, the cost of production remains highly onerous and the cost of life extremely unaffordable. On this account, the current study disserts about the contract of Project Finance; an alternative finance resource given as a viable solution for the private financing of infrastructure, aiming to demonstrate that such contractual figure, likewise the experience of several emerging economies and others, is a contract bid framework to take into account in today’s world. It refers to a financing technique – through which the Government may satisfy a common need (for example, the construction of a public domain or public servicing), without having to pay neither offer any collateral – based on a complex legal-financial engineering, arranged throughout a coalition of typical and atypical agreements, whereby it is mandatory to look back at the basic concepts of corporate law. More than just a simple financial study, the dissertation at stake analyses the nature and legal framework of Project Finance, which is a legally atypical and innominate contract, concluding that there is a relevant need for regulating and devoting a special legal regime in the Angolan jurisdiction for this promising legal form in the contemporary corporate finance world.

Impacto do programa nacional de acreditação em saúde : comparação de indicadores entre unidades de saúde familiar acreditadas e não acreditadas

RESUMO - A qualidade é actualmente um factor incontornável do posicionamento das instituições de saúde, independentemente da sua estrutura de financiamento. A prestação de cuidados de qualidade é globalmente entendida como custo-efectiva. A acreditação das instituições de saúde é a forma mais utilizada como garantia dessa mesma qualidade. A aplicação da acreditação nos CSP tem um percurso mais recente, existindo na literatura opiniões distintas quanto aos seus efeitos. Nos últimos anos, Portugal implementou uma reforma estrutural dos CSP, com a criação das Unidades de Saúde Familiar. Paralelamente, o Departamento da Qualidade em Saúde, sob jurisdição da Direcção Geral da Saúde, implementou o Programa Nacional de Acreditação em Saúde. A acreditação das USF é hoje em dia uma realidade. ! Objectivos: Este trabalho pretende estudar o impacto do Programa Nacional de Acreditação em Saúde ao nível dos CSP, através da comparação dos indicadores de desempenho das Unidades de Saúde Familiar no ano de 2012. Metodologia: Para analisar as diferenças entre USF, identificaram-se os resultados dos indicadores de desempenho disponíveis para o ano 2012, das sete USF Acreditadas. Foram seleccionadas 7 USF Não Acreditadas, tendo como objectivo a criação de pares de USF (Acreditada + Não Acreditada), mantendo a maior homogeneidade possível entre cada unidade. Para cada par, foram identificadas as situações que apresentavam diferenças significativas no desempenho. Da mesma forma, analisaram-se as diferenças significativas por indicador, região e dimensão do desempenho. Procedeu-se à avaliação do grau de cumprimento das metas propostas, identificando desvios face ao objectivo contratualizado. Resultados e Conclusões: As USF Acreditadas apresentam resultados significativamente superiores em 12% das situações e inferiores em 10% das vezes. Não existem diferenças significativas em 4 dos 14 indicadores estudados. As USF Acreditadas são tendencialmente melhores, apresentando contudo diferenças marginais.