CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Spain, Economic Crisis, and the New Enclosure of the Reproductive Commons

In the past f ew years numerous authors have examined how the current economic crisis in Spain has dif f erential impacts on women and men.1 While this is important to show, this article’s goal is to make the leap f rom a mere description of the gendered effects of the crisis, to an analysis of some of the very gendered processes that shape it at its core. In other words, the intent is to understand how both the crisis itself and the ways the state manages it are structurally shaped by gender.

Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Spain, 1845-1935

Between the mid-nineteenth century and the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War in 1936, Spain undertook a sustained process of economic growth and structural change, but was unable to converge with the core European economies.1 The reasons behind Spain"s failure to converge have been a subject of debate among historians for decades. 2 This dissertation aims to analyze the role played by infrastructure in Spanish economic growth during that period, and tries to find out to what extent the potential shortage or inadequacy of the Spanish infrastructure endowment was one of the factors to blame for the country"s nonconvergence. The dissertation draws on recent research on the economic impact of infrastructure, and on the numerous attempts to measure that impact which have been undertaken in the wake of David Aschauer"s work on the United States.

Evaluation in vitro de la fonction hémostatique des concentrés plaquettaires traités par inactivation des pathogènes par amotosalem-UVA

La transfusion de concentrés plaquettaires, dès 1958, a permis d'augmenter l'espérance et la qualité de vie des patients dans le domaine de l'onco-hématologie, notamment en réduisant les risques hémorragiques induits par les chimiothérapies intensives. Après le traumatisme de l'affaire du sang contaminé dans les années 1980-1990, la médecine transfusionnelle a adopté des exigences de sécurité et de qualité très strictes et régulées dans plusieurs pays par les instances politiques. Cependant même les mesures de qualité les plus strictes n'ont permis d'atteindre le risque « zéro », notamment en ce qui concerne les contaminations bactériennes. De plus, la prise de conscience de l'existence de nouveaux pathogènes (West Nile Virus, Chikungunya, Prions) a stimulé le développement de 3 techniques d'inactivation des pathogènes pouvant s'appliquer au plasma et aux concentrés plaquettaires : la technique INTERCEPT utilisant l'amotosalen/UVA, la technique MIRASOL avec la riboflavine/UV et la technique THERAFLEX avec les UVC. La Suisse a fait office de pionnière en étant le premier pays au monde à adopter de manière généralisée l'inactivation des pathogènes par la technique INTERCEPT pour les concentrés plaquettaires dès 2011 après sa validation par Swissmedic en 2009 et son implémentation réussie dans plusieurs centres de transfusion pilotes. Coïncidence? Le décès tragique d'un patient pédiatrique en 2009 suite à une contamination bactérienne par une transfusion de concentré plaquettaire a précédé cette décision. Les cliniciens ont besoin de disposer de concentrés plaquettaires sûrs d'un point de vue microbiologique mais également sur le plan hémostatique, d'où la nécessité de disposer de preuves solides sur l'efficacité thérapeutique de ces nouveaux produits. Ceci a fait l'objet de la revue publiée dans Blood Reviews « The clinical and biological impact of new pathogen inactivation technologies on platelets concentrates » dont l'originalité est de couvrir l'étude de l'effet des processus d'inactivation des pathogènes sur la fonction plaquettaire sous toutes ses facettes allant de la protéomique aux études d'hémovigilance. Ce travail montre l'efficacité de ces méthodes et leur sécurité et souligne que l'observation de taux de recirculation moindre peut être compensée par une augmentation du statut d'activation des plaquettes. Le deuxième article publié comme co-auteur dans le journal Blood Transfusion « In vitro evaluation of pathogen-inactivated buffy coat-derived platelet concentrates during storage: The psoralen-based photochemical treatment step-by-step » se pose la question de la modification des propriétés fonctionnelles des plaquettes dans une étude à deux bras (par comparaison entre plaquettes traitées et non traitées). En plus de deux tests utilisés en pratique clinique (agrégation plaquettaire et cytométrie de flux) un test expérimental d'adhésion plaquettaire au fibrinogène en condition statique a été développé en collaboration avec le Prof Angelillo-Scherrer dans le cadre du laboratoire de recherche et développement du SRTS-VD. Les résultats obtenus démontrent la conservation du métabolisme plaquettaire et des changements mineurs dans la capacité d'agrégation mais une augmentation de la capacité d'adhésion au fibrinogène des plaquettes traitées probablement via une augmentation de la conversion de l'intégrine ailb(B3 dans sa forme activée. Les techniques d'inactivation des pathogènes appliqués aux concentrés plaquettaires représentent un important progrès dans le domaine de la médecine transfusionnelle. Leur impact au niveau moléculaire reste cependant encore en partie inconnu et fait l'objet d'études. Le défi actuel consiste à réussir à les adopter aux concentrés érythrocytaires, ce qui révolutionnerait la médecine transfusionnelle.

Infrastructure Investment and Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.